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At what amount do you not match Seto RFA?

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Old
03-29-2011, 11:44 AM
  #26
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Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
Based on his negotiations last year, there's no reason for me to believe that he'd sign an offer sheet. He had plenty of time last year to get one or sign one and didn't do so. I would like to hope that that would be the case this time around as well.
if he signed for $1.8MM, i doubt the offer sheets were that great. but i agree, i dont think he wants to leave. he has to sign the offer sheet first, and i dont see him doing that.

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03-29-2011, 12:57 PM
  #27
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20 goals, 40 points? Sounds like $2.0-$2.5M/yr to me. $3 million is already pushing it for me. For all the complaining about Doug Wilson overpaying based on expectation and not performance, it's been curiously absent when Devin's name has been bounced around.

If Pavelski's "reward" contract was $4Mx4 and Clowe's was $3.625Mx4, and you look at their production before, during, and after their "trial" short-term contract years, then there's no way Setoguchi should be paid anything approaching those numbers. His production simply hasn't justified it. I don't mind another short-term deal, but Doug should not give him both term and absolute dollars.

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03-30-2011, 04:10 PM
  #28
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I'd say a deal around 3 years 7-7.5 mil would be about right. I don't think his production warrants much more, even if we got the shaft with only a 2nd.

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03-30-2011, 04:40 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by ramstoria View Post
I'd say a deal around 3 years 7-7.5 mil would be about right. I don't think his production warrants much more, even if we got the shaft with only a 2nd.
But how do you replace the hole in the lineup if he goes? Acquiring FAs is not a sure thing and there won't be a lot of 20 goal FAs on the market. Other teams have higher quality prospects with which they could replace a Seto if he was on their team. Not so for the Sharks. Ferriero and McGinn are not close to even Seto's level. I am not fond of Seto's level of play for where he was drafted, but I am trying to account for the whole picture. There have been a whole bunch of teams who act as if losing a player is no big deal as he can be replaced. The reality is that most of the replacements have even less than the player who went.

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03-30-2011, 05:22 PM
  #30
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Free agent wingers:

Gagne- requested trade to Tampa Bay (rather than LA, where he'd have been given the top line LW speed with Kopi), because he doesn't want to deal with Western travel.

Selanne- Ducks only

Hejduk- Likely Avs only

Ryder- not as good, or as good of a fit.

Stillman- much too old, but we could use another playmaker. Also had a back injury this year.

Langenbrunner- Disaster in NJD and fall of Dallas are concerning. Could simply be bad luck, and I love his skill set and playoff performance, but I have some concerns.

Kovalev- no, but he is a surprisingly good playoff performer

Cole/Sturm/Frolov- love to have them in Mitchell's place (and price tag), but not Seto's.

Knuble- probably staying, also not nearly as fast, and significantly older. Probably at least as expensive. Offers some other nice skills that Seto does not, but not a player worth giving Seto up for.

Vrbatta- not a bad fit, but I expect him to re-sign in Phoenix.

Laich/Upshall- good fits, but almost certainly 3-3.5 million (maybe 4 in Laich's case).

Fleischman- not a great fit, likely 2.25-3 million. I think Seto's better.

It is a miserable free agent crop (especially for forwards), and it will get even worse.

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03-30-2011, 05:31 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by matt trick View Post
Free agent wingers:

Gagne- requested trade to Tampa Bay (rather than LA, where he'd have been given the top line LW speed with Kopi), because he doesn't want to deal with Western travel.

Selanne- Ducks only

Hejduk- Likely Avs only

Ryder- not as good, or as good of a fit.

Stillman- much too old, but we could use another playmaker. Also had a back injury this year.

Langenbrunner- Disaster in NJD and fall of Dallas are concerning. Could simply be bad luck, and I love his skill set and playoff performance, but I have some concerns.

Kovalev- no, but he is a surprisingly good playoff performer

Cole/Sturm/Frolov- love to have them in Mitchell's place (and price tag), but not Seto's.

Knuble- probably staying, also not nearly as fast, and significantly older. Probably at least as expensive. Offers some other nice skills that Seto does not, but not a player worth giving Seto up for.

Vrbatta- not a bad fit, but I expect him to re-sign in Phoenix.

Laich/Upshall- good fits, but almost certainly 3-3.5 million (maybe 4 in Laich's case).

Fleischman- not a great fit, likely 2.25-3 million. I think Seto's better.

It is a miserable free agent crop (especially for forwards), and it will get even worse.
Seto is RFA though, so I imagine he will be signed to some reasonable rate even if it's one year again, then he can be traded and that opens up a larger set of possibilities. Including UFA's available the following year. I doubt he gets an offer sheet unless it's someone trying to drive up our cap. My point is there are a lot of scenarios in which Seto could be replaced if necessary. However, If the price is right, I don't see a need to do it.

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03-30-2011, 05:52 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by Led Zappa View Post
Seto is RFA though, so I imagine he will be signed to some reasonable rate even if it's one year again, then he can be traded and that opens up a larger set of possibilities. Including UFA's available the following year. I doubt he gets an offer sheet unless it's someone trying to drive up our cap. My point is there are a lot of scenarios in which Seto could be replaced if necessary. However, If the price is right, I don't see a need to do it.
MT just detailed the scenario that I had seen. Trading to replace him is a joke because they are effectively giving up the picks that they would get in return. They really need to hunker down on the drafting and get some forwards who have a shorter development curve. The other issue is that they won't get someone better unless they spend more than they would for Seto.

The challenge would be to replace him if he walked on an offersheet by getting a 20goal winger for less than a second round pick. If someone could name a likely candidate winger with a recent trade value below that, then you have my attention. At a second round pick the turnover is a wash; more than a second, the Sharks lose. The other alternative is to find a UFA 20 goal winger with speed for less than $3mil. I don't think the Sharks can find either scenario.

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03-30-2011, 05:56 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Trading to replace him is a joke because they are effectively giving up the picks that they would get in return.
I don't know what your trying to say here. How do you know what the trade would be. It may be someone who fits better. May be someone better that doesn't fit with the team he's on. He could be packaged. Wanna try and explain what your talking about.

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The challenge would be to replace him if he walked on an offersheet by getting a 20goal winger for less than a second round pick. If someone could name a likely candidate winger with a recent trade value below that, then you have my attention. At a second round pick the turnover is a wash; more than a second, the Sharks lose. The other alternative is to find a UFA 20 goal winger with speed for less than $3mil. I don't think the Sharks can find either scenario.
And MT detailed the UFA's available this coming offseason, not next. And I only mentioned the offer sheet to indicate my doubt it happens. If it does, there's a good chance we would have to match.

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03-30-2011, 05:57 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
MT just detailed the scenario that I had seen. Trading to replace him is a joke because they are effectively giving up the picks that they would get in return. They really need to hunker down on the drafting and get some forwards who have a shorter development curve. The other issue is that they won't get someone better unless they spend more than they would for Seto.

The challenge would be to replace him if he walked on an offersheet by getting a 20goal winger for less than a second round pick. If someone could name a likely candidate winger with a recent trade value below that, then you have my attention. At a second round pick the turnover is a wash; more than a second, the Sharks lose. The other alternative is to find a UFA 20 goal winger with speed for less than $3mil. I don't think the Sharks can find either scenario.
I'm not good at predicting UFA contracts but I assume Flash, Vrbata, Cole and Sturm could be had at that price point and all bring more or less the same skill set as Seto to the table. As for the 2nd round pick option, perhaps Mason Raymond would be available although I don't know if the Canucks would sell low on him. DW could always sit on his hands and wait for a Grabner-type to hit the waiver wire.

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03-30-2011, 06:03 PM
  #35
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Sturm? No way, Jose. He's done.

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03-30-2011, 06:13 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
But how do you replace the hole in the lineup if he goes? Acquiring FAs is not a sure thing and there won't be a lot of 20 goal FAs on the market. Other teams have higher quality prospects with which they could replace a Seto if he was on their team. Not so for the Sharks. Ferriero and McGinn are not close to even Seto's level. I am not fond of Seto's level of play for where he was drafted, but I am trying to account for the whole picture. There have been a whole bunch of teams who act as if losing a player is no big deal as he can be replaced. The reality is that most of the replacements have even less than the player who went.
I agree, it'd be very difficult to fill the gap if that were to happen. But you have to look at the big picture. Do the Sharks match an offer sheet in the 3-3.5 million range pushing them further against the cap. As it is the Sharks already have (and these aren't exact numbers) about $50 million in salaries tied up next year, not including what Seto would sign for, and need to fill 8 or so roster spots? It's going to take some fancy accounting as it is to stay under the cap next year.

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03-30-2011, 06:13 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Jesus Toews View Post
I'm not good at predicting UFA contracts but I assume Flash, Vrbata, Cole and Sturm could be had at that price point and all bring more or less the same skill set as Seto to the table. As for the 2nd round pick option, perhaps Mason Raymond would be available although I don't know if the Canucks would sell low on him. DW could always sit on his hands and wait for a Grabner-type to hit the waiver wire.
Flash is higher and is more a setup guy, not really an F1. Vrbata is an F3 where the Sharks are overstocked. Cole and Sturm have huge injury concerns but are Seto types (F1s). Sturm might get less because of age and injury history. I am pretty sure Cole has pumped his value to just north of $3mil. I'd take Seto over Raymond as an F1 but not by much. Nice joke about a Grabner hitting waivers again; it is really showing why Tallon should not be a GM in the league.

LZ,
In terms of fits, the Sharks need an F1 or F2. If Seto goes, it really is an F1 (see above). What I am saying is that to not match and just churn is a joke. The object of every transaction should be to improve the team. My biggest point was that recent drafting of forwards has left a little to be desired (speed/skill).


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03-30-2011, 06:19 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by ramstoria View Post
I agree, it'd be very difficult to fill the gap if that were to happen. But you have to look at the big picture. Do the Sharks match an offer sheet in the 3-3.5 million range pushing them further against the cap. As it is the Sharks already have (and these aren't exact numbers) about $50 million in salaries tied up next year, not including what Seto would sign for, and need to fill 8 or so roster spots? It's going to take some fancy accounting as it is to stay under the cap next year.
I am aware of that part of the picture also. It gets dicey after $2.5mil assuming a marginal increase in the cap. We have already seen what happens when secondary scoring disappears in the playoffs. Seto isn't great, but he is a lot better than others on the market. DW was looking at exactly that issue when he got Eager and Wellwood. My take is that DW cannot afford to do a Wallin or Huskins move this year for the lower end of the blueline especially if Seto needs a raise. When looking at how many and how much is left, you also have to look at which roles they need to fill and if they have adequate prospects for those roles if they can't get UFAs.

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03-30-2011, 06:23 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Flash is higher and is more a setup guy, not really an F1. Cole and Sturm have huge injury concerns but are Seto types (F1s). Sturm might get less because of age and injury history. I am pretty sure Cole has pumped his value to just north of $3mil. I'd take Seto over Raymond as an F1 but not by much. Nice joke about a Grabner hitting waivers again; it is really showing why Tallon should not be a GM in the league.

LZ,
In terms of fits, the Sharks need an F1 or F2. If Seto goes, it really is an F1 (see above). What I am saying is that to not match and just churn is a joke. The object of every transaction should be to improve the team. My biggest point was that recent drafting of forwards has left a little to be desired (speed/skill).
I guess we're just talking past each other. Sometimes I guess I just don't think I need to say something because I figure it's obvious.

I never said we shouldn't match an offer. In fact I talked about signing him and trading him "if" it makes sense. If we sign him for one year, we can look at the UFA pool the next year or trade him mid year if something presents itself. If we sign him for 2 years I think it would be easier to work a trade deal, especially if we package him.

I don't want to see Seto go. I want him to perform better and we still have time to see that happen. I don't see any scenario in which we don't re-sign him unless he signs an outrageous offer sheet and I don't see that happening.

In the end, I was just trying to point out there are more options for the Sharks than next years UFA offerings.


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Old
03-30-2011, 06:30 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by Led Zappa View Post
I guess we're just talking past each other. Sometimes I guess I just don't think I need to say something because I figure it's obvious.

I never said we shouldn't match an offer. In fact I talked about signing him and trading him "if it makes sense. If we sign him for one year, we can look at the UFA pool the next year or trade him mid year if something presents itself. If we sign him for 2 years I think it would be easier to work a trade deal, especially if we package him.

I don't want to see Seto go. I want him to perform better and we still have time to see that happen. I don't see any scenario in which we don't re-sign him unless he signs an outrageous offer sheet and I don't see that happening.

In the end, I was just trying to point out there are more options for the Sharks than next years UFA offerings.
Yeah probably talking past. I was going for big picture, team mix and salary cap. I know that there are options but DW hasn't exactly been nailing his assessments and filling those needs with high end solutions. My take was that the options would be much less than palatable. He missed on the blueline and the Sharks are not the offensive juggernaut that we were led to believe. IMO, the lack of offense is in the skills mix.

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03-30-2011, 06:36 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Yeah probably talking past. I was going for big picture, team mix and salary cap. I know that there are options but DW hasn't exactly been nailing his assessments and filling those needs with high end solutions. My take was that the options would be much less than palatable. He missed on the blueline and the Sharks are not the offensive juggernaut that we were led to believe. IMO, the lack of offense is in the skills mix.
Well, our assessment of this team greatly differs. We are 24-4-4 since the slump. The tools are there. Execution is the key and it looks like they have jumped a hurdle in that regard. Now if they can just fix the PK. Nichol should help considerably. He may not be the greatest PKer ever, but he will elevate the PK more than his skills alone as a package, not to mention the level of PK talent he will be replacing. Then there's Huskins if he ever gets back and gets played ahead of Wallin.

Did you even see the post of our stats against PO teams this year? Number 1 in most categories except one where we were 4.

I don't know how much more you expect, except the CUP lol

EDIT: stat positions were for the West and games played were against all PO teams.


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03-30-2011, 06:58 PM
  #42
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Well, our assessment of this team greatly differs. We are 24-4-4 since the slump. The tools are there. Execution is the key and it looks like they have jumped a hurdle in that regard. Now if they can just fix the PK. Nichol should help considerably. He may not be the greatest PKer ever, but he will elevate the PK more than his skills alone as a package, not to mention the level of PK talent he will be replacing. Then there's Huskins if he ever gets back and gets played ahead of Wallin.

Did you even see the post of our stats against PO teams this year? Number 1 in most categories except one where we were 4.

I don't know how much more you expect, except the CUP lol

EDIT: stat positions were for the West and games played were against all PO teams.
I am not as high on the team as yourself. Not in the dumps either.

Even with Nichol, the PK is subpar although much better. I would rather see them using a box rather than a 1-1-2 to see how it goes. I don't think it is a personnel issue; Pavs and Marleau who led the team last year are absolutely in the tank on PK numbers. To me, that signals a strategy issue. I can't hold the blueline accountable because Boyle/Murray is not that big a dropoff from Vlasic/Blake. I do agree that Nichol is a big PK help.

My biggest reservations are the overplaying of Niemi and his lack of shutouts in the last month and a half (if he had one or two, I would be fine) and the dramatic dropoff in team scoring for the season even if you only count scoring during the surge. The Niemi shutout issue leads me to the team defense issue during the surge. It's good but not as high quality as those teams which rode their defense/goaltending to the cup.

I did see what amounts to the matchup stats. I have been going into their detailed background. I can see a matchup progression as a possibility which would get the Sharks to the SCF. However, I would not be fond of the likely matchups from the east.

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03-30-2011, 07:40 PM
  #43
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The Niemi shutout issue leads me to the team defense issue during the surge. It's good but not as high quality as those teams which rode their defense/goaltending to the cup.
I'd put thr San Jose Sharks at least in the top 20 in offensive talent. Maybe even higher. If they can play adequate team D, at least mediocre like they've played recently and if Niemi can get at least 8 shutouts in the POs, then we have a shot. A VERY longshot, but still.

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03-30-2011, 08:01 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by SJfortheCUP View Post
I'd put thr San Jose Sharks at least in the top 20 in offensive talent. Maybe even higher. If they can play adequate team D, at least mediocre like they've played recently and if Niemi can get at least 8 shutouts in the POs, then we have a shot. A VERY longshot, but still.
8 shutouts in the playoffs is not reality; Brodeur had 7 in his best year and the Sharks are nowhere near the level of that Devs team for defense. Even 8 for this reg. season is pretty far out of reach. Right now the Sharks are 9th in the league for offense and 10th for defense (goals for and goals against). Those are the type of numbers that are marginal for second round. Taking the surge into account, you might say solid for second round, but most of the playoff teams are surging right now (check the last 10 game record for the teams that are currently in; not many softies).

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03-30-2011, 08:04 PM
  #45
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I'd put thr San Jose Sharks at least in the top 20 in offensive talent. Maybe even higher. If they can play adequate team D, at least mediocre like they've played recently and if Niemi can get at least 8 shutouts in the POs, then we have a shot. A VERY longshot, but still.
Not sure if serious. I know scoring goes down a bit during playoffs but 8 shutouts? You need 16 wins to win the cup so if niemi gets at least 8 shutouts i guarantee the sharks are more than a "A VERY longshot".

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03-30-2011, 08:14 PM
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Not sure if serious. I know scoring goes down a bit during playoffs but 8 shutouts? You need 16 wins to win the cup so if niemi gets at least 8 shutouts i guarantee the sharks are more than a "A VERY longshot".
Not serious, just busting on Jeasy.

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03-30-2011, 08:19 PM
  #47
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Not serious, just busting on Jeasy.
Haha. I was confused when you said the sharks were at least top 20 in offensive talent when they're top 10 in scoring and then it got crazier

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03-30-2011, 09:01 PM
  #48
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whatever penner got, that's when we let him walk for the picks.

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03-30-2011, 09:10 PM
  #49
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whatever penner got, that's when we let him walk for the picks.
5 years at 4.something million is where you draw the line?

take almost 2 million off of that and i would still almost rather just take the picks.

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03-30-2011, 09:43 PM
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Blues could easily put in an offer. He'd be a pretty damn good fit there too.

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