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ATD 2011 Line-up Assassination Thread

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Old
04-07-2011, 02:20 PM
  #101
DoMakc
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Actually, Dreak, forget it, Egan is more than ok for second pairing, i think i just saw keith magnusson on someone's second pairing, i think, I'm still comparing lineups to that from 28-32 teams draft.

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04-07-2011, 02:21 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Do you really need stats to quantify holmstrom's effect on the PP? It's not like Detroit is an obscure team - they made back to back finals!
Yes, I do. What if Detroit's PP% is similar or WORSE with Holmstrom than without him? Does what he does justify using him over a more skilled player? Would a more skilled player be more impactful on the PP? I would be VERY interested in an analysis like this.. hopefully overpass can cook something up.

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04-07-2011, 02:27 PM
  #103
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No. Holmstrom is basically useless at everything except plugging the RW spot beside Datsyuk and making the goalie stare at his ass for 2 minutes.
Indeed. Surpassed 50 points twice, hit 30 goals once. Nothing to speak of defensively, presumably average physically. Again, why pick him if you aren't going to use him on the PP? I'd like to see monster_bertuzzi's explanation for that. If he's not on the PP, Tomas Holstrom is an MLD player at best.

If it can be proven that Detroit's PP was better (both statistically and by the "you can just see it" standard), I'll buy him as a 4th liner, but even then, he needs to be on PP.

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And a great playoff as well (whatever that means when you've only scored 2 points, but still tops all defensemen).
In how many games?

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04-07-2011, 02:31 PM
  #104
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Originally Posted by DoMakc View Post
I understand, that your 3rd pairing isn't the best, but still they together get only 1/6 of possible D TOI, are they THAT bad? i mean, Buller doesn't play on any special teams, and gets only 8 minutes. I'm not sure why did pick him if you don't trust him at all.
I like both my bottom 6 defensemen. I think they are one of the better 3rd pairings in the draft.

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i don't have a problem with Egan per se, not a fan of his skillset, reminds me of Phaneuf, but that are my preferences, they are not objective. Still i won't question that he is a fine 4th D with a right partner, my problem is, that him and Green, who while may get less TOI than Stuart still going to play against opponents' top lines, are asked to do more than they may be capable of, look at your chart - they both are getting 2 minutes less ES TOI than Bourque, basically 2 shifts less.
Egan won't be playing against top lines if at all possible.

Green will definately be playing against top lines. That is his job, and it's not even close to being beyond his ability.

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04-07-2011, 02:31 PM
  #105
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Don't know. That profile was done ages ago.
Hmm, well after taking a quick look at his LOH bio, it could've either been in 4 games or in 2 games - not sure which.

I suppose that's decently impressive, then, but not too much

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04-07-2011, 02:41 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
If he's not on the PP, holmstrom shouldn't be selected in the AA draft.
And it's THIS line of thinking (the fact that everyone views his PP presence so highly that he goes from AA scrub to ATD 4th liner) that REALLY makes me want to see a PP on/off breakdown with him. Something tells me that we'll be quite unimpressed. It would have have to be a HELL of a level of dominance to raise his value that high.

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04-07-2011, 04:06 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by Mr Bugg View Post
2nd D- While I like both players as individuals, I don't know that they're correctly matched here. Both are offensive dynamos- but there's only one puck. Desjardins is trust-worthy defensively, but enough to not a) sacrifice his efficiency b) shelter Smith?
Just one thing about your review, I don't think I'd call either of them an "offensive dynamo". Smith had just 3 50+ point seasons in the late '80s and early '90s. His best point finishes were 13th, 12th, and 16th. Desjardins was better offensively IMO, and more of a two-way player.

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04-07-2011, 04:09 PM
  #108
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I'm surprised Smith's numbers are even that high, though I guess he was bound to get points by default playing top 4 minutes for the Oilers.

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04-07-2011, 04:12 PM
  #109
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Originally Posted by Boy Wonder View Post
Yes, I do. What if Detroit's PP% is similar or WORSE with Holmstrom than without him? Does what he does justify using him over a more skilled player? Would a more skilled player be more impactful on the PP? I would be VERY interested in an analysis like this.. hopefully overpass can cook something up.
Probaby not, I don't feel like taking the time and I'm willing to assume that the Detroit coaching staff and their elite PP know what they are doing.

If you want to perform the analysis it could be done by checking the PP scoring from Detroit game logs on nhl.com's stat page, and then checking Holmstrom's game log at hockey-reference. Make sure to send a copy to Mike Babcock!

From what I've seen, guys like Holmstrom who play in front of the net get fewer power play points than forwards in other PP roles. I think this says more about the limitations of points as an offensive metric than the usefulness of a net presence.

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04-07-2011, 04:16 PM
  #110
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Probaby not, I don't feel like taking the time and I'm willing to assume that the Detroit coaching staff and their elite PP know what they are doing.

If you want to perform the analysis it could be done by checking the PP scoring from Detroit game logs on nhl.com's stat page, and then checking Holmstrom's game log at hockey-reference. Make sure to send a copy to Mike Babcock!

From what I've seen, guys like Holmstrom who play in front of the net get fewer power play points than forwards in other PP roles. I think this says more about the limitations of points as an offensive metric than the usefulness of a net presence.
That sounds like way more work than it's worth. It's too bad, because I think it's insane that a guy like Holmstrom gets elevated from AA draft to ATD because of what he can do with around 2-5 minutes of ice time per game on the PP. When you think about it that way, and the fact that he brings literally nothing else, it's actually kinda disturbing. I'm thinking more and more than Holmstrom, PP or not, really should just drop to sub-MLD.

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04-07-2011, 04:17 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by Boy Wonder View Post
Are you sure you're not just the coach of your team in NHL '11?

TWO defensemen play over 26 minutes per game in the NHL this year. TWO. What the hell do you know about the NHL that 28 other coaches don't about playing a #2 THAT much?
To be fair, minutes for the top defenceman have dropped in the last couple of years. I don't think it's clear yet whether this will last and the 28-30 minute defender is a thing of the past, or if there are just no d-men good enough for those minutes right now.

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04-07-2011, 04:23 PM
  #112
TheDevilMadeMe
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That 2-5 minutes of PP time is a lot more important than the 5 minutes a 4th line will playbin the playoffs.

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04-07-2011, 04:36 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by Velociraptor View Post
I'll do the Firebirds seeing as they are my divisional rival and I have followed them closely somewhat since the beginning of the draft.

OFFENSE

First Line: One of the better first lines of the draft, the only thing keeping them out of "elite" company is the weakness of Dick Duff. Good glue guy to have on the line with two perennial superstars in Beliveau and Kurri, but definitely a glaring weakness on the line. You should be safe because you do have the aforementioned duo on the line, that should've have much trouble scoring.

Second Line: I like the composure of this line, good, hard-working second line that contributes a good amount of offense and grit. Frank McGee is a solid offensive threat, who fits well with Hodge and Harris. Two puck-winners. Like my first line, you might have similar trouble in generating offense more often than not. But in the same situation I'm in, with the talent on the line, it shouldn't be difficult to get those chances.

Third Line: Decent, typical third line. I can't see a whole lot of offense coming out of the line, I don't know of any playmaking skills between the three. I just know Lepine was known for his defensive ability. Who gets the puck to Sutter or Peirson when trying for offensive chances? Good defensive line, not really sure how much offense it will contribute.

Fourth Line: This line, kind of like your third line, except I see this as a good offensive energy line. Bill Thoms can set up plays and score goals, and Prodgers and Maloney are somewhat suitable wingers. They'll be able to protect Thoms and they will receive good passes from him that could lead to scoring chances.

Spares: Like I said about Balfour in the Draft Thread, he isn't anything special and was well-known for his presence on the million-dollar line. Was heavily favored by past GM's, and was picked earlier because of it. Not a bad spare though, good fore-checker and could fill in on the PK possibly. Herb Jordan is a good offensive spare, one of the better in the draft in my perspective (up there with Maruk and Janney) and should be effective when relied upon.

DEFENSE

First Pairing: Not bad first pairing, Langway is a great piece to have, but a lower-tier #1 defenseman. Eduard Ivanov? He brings the pairing down a little bit, mostly because IMO he is not a top pairing defenseman in the ATD. He is adequate, and probably belongs on a second pairing as a below-average #3 or a good #4. Langway will provide a lot of defense, and will make it seemingly difficult for opposing forwards to get through. Ivanov is an alright two-way defenseman, who brings a nice mix of offense and defense. I don't think Ivanov was a very good skater, so if he ever gets caught pinching, it could be a task for even Langway to overcome.

Second Pairing: I like this pairing a little more, seeing as it is a good two-way blend. Howell is a fine defensive defenseman and a solid #2. Gonchar is a good offensive defenseman, and can be protected by Howell. Gonchar's defensive ability is almost non-existent, so Howell is a suitable partner for him.

Third Pairing: Pretty bruising third pairing, should do well against offensive lines. I don't see Owen as the most reliable puck-rushing defenseman, so offense may be hard to come by.

Spares: I never saw anything special about Jay Bouwmeester, average offensively, not bad defensively. Not a terrible spare I guess, but I can't see him as a very reliable one.

GOALTENDING

Upper-middle class goaltender in Jiri Holocek, he's a strong point in the middle of the ATD goaltending class. He should be an integral part to the core and a legitimate starting goaltender. Charlie Hodge is a good back-up, stood in the shadow of Jacques Plante and did pretty well in his years as a starter.

SPECIAL TEAMS

PP: Pretty good flow on both units, I don't see Harris as an overly productive forward. But keeping that line together could be a good idea on the PP.

PK: Beliveau wasn't the most defensive forward out there, more known to fight his own battles other than helping out others. But his big presence is most likely a plus, and having Duff there helps. Playing Howell on your second pairing eliminates him from over-working and playing too much, so that is good.

COACHING

Viktor Tikhonov is a middle-class coach, I think with the offense you possess throughout your forward core, his style will mesh well with the team. He knows a thing or two about winning. David Bauer is also a pretty good guy to have around.

OVERVIEW

Pretty good entry Bill, there is a lot of strong flow throughout the team. Your first line is without a doubt the best part of your team, that should be a struggle for many oppositions defense. Your defense has a few flaws, I think Langway will be doing a lot of work on that first pairing. But other than that I think you've built a pretty good team.
I agree with pretty much everything you said. The only things are for my 3rd line, Sutter and Peirson are more goalscorers, and judging from Lepine's finishes I'd say he was a goal scorer as well, but I found multiple quote suggesting he was a good playmaker. Admittedly, the line is a little heavy on playmaking. They should be able to provide a good amount of offense. Lepine has 3 top 10s in goals, Sutter has a top 10 in goals, and Peirson has 3 top 10s in goals, and 3 top 10s in points.

The first pairing is designed as a pure shutdown pairing. Langway's defensive prowess and Ivanov's propensity to play a physical game will make for a good shutdown pairing that will draw the hardest defensive assignments.

In his short career, Owen was first and second in points among defenseman, so I think he will be able to provide adequate puck moving for a 3rd pairing.

Beliveau is on the PK because of his faceoff prowess, but I could take him off and replace him with Maloney or Thoms and place Brian Sutter on the 3rd PK. I'd like to know what people would think would be best, it would put two wingers on one of my PKs, but if that's the 3rd PK should it matter that much?

If people hadn't figured it out, I drafted Bauer to be the Vladimir Yurzinov to Tikhonov. Bauer was famous for being very popular with his players, and will act as the intermediary between Tikhonov and the players.

Overall, I appreciate the review.

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Old
04-07-2011, 04:38 PM
  #114
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
That 2-5 minutes of PP time is a lot more important than the 5 minutes a 4th line will playbin the playoffs.
Detroit has scored 35 power play goals this year. How many of those could Holmstrom possibly have accounted for? Are you telling me a MAYBE extra 5-10 goals a season (and I think that's being VERY generous) that Holmstrom MIGHT have had to do with over the course of an ATD season will make up for all his useless even strength shifts?

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04-07-2011, 04:44 PM
  #115
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Obviously I'd rather someone useful at even stregth too - I did draft bertuzzi over holmstrom. I would rather have holmstrom on the 4th line than a weak second unit net presence, however.

Anyway, this is a useless argument as holmstrom isn't even being used on the PP

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04-07-2011, 04:47 PM
  #116
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Obviously I'd rather someone useful at even stregth too - I did draft bertuzzi over holmstrom. I would rather have holmstrom on the 4th line than a weak second unit net presence, however.

Anyway, this is a useless argument as holmstrom isn't even being used on the PP
It's only a useless argument if you're not interested in learning a player's all-time value. I think it's a very interesting argument.

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04-07-2011, 04:56 PM
  #117
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
I'm satisfied with holmstrom's place as an all-time great specialist.
The thing is, I don't think there is anything all-time great about a guy who does nothing but get you MAYBE an extra 5-10 goals on the PP per year because he's there. He would have to be a top-5 PP net presence ever in order to justify going from AA to the ATD, and there is NO WAY IN HELL that's happening.

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04-07-2011, 05:01 PM
  #118
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The thing is, I don't think there is anything all-time great about a guy who does nothing but get you MAYBE an extra 5-10 goals on the PP per year because he's there. He would have to be a top-5 PP net presence ever in order to justify going from AA to the ATD, and there is NO WAY IN HELL that's happening.
He's extremely useful on the PP in the playoffs.

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04-07-2011, 05:03 PM
  #119
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
He's extremely useful on the PP in the playoffs.
Again.. how far does this usefulness actually extend? Is he going to get you 1 more goal on the PP? 5? Are any of those PPs actually going to be in clutch situations where it ends up being the winning goal or something? Too many factors.. and he's useless at everything else, therefore, I don't think he has a place here.

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04-07-2011, 05:06 PM
  #120
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Again.. how far does this usefulness actually extend? Is he going to get you 1 more goal on the PP? 5? Are any of those PPs actually going to be in clutch situations where it ends up being the winning goal or something? Too many factors.. and he's useless at everything else, therefore, I don't think he has a place here.
You're really underestimating the value of a PP in the playoffs and overrating the value of a 4th line I think.

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04-07-2011, 05:06 PM
  #121
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I support TDMM's view in this.

Players exist in a particular context when they play hockey. Role players are in fact used effectively by teams, and if Holmstrom can have a certain value to a team by fulfilling a specific role, that determines his value, regardless of whether some kind of floating abstract system that weights all attributes equally would give him a lower numerical rating. The purpose of a player is to help his team win, not acquire a broad portfolio of skills.

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04-07-2011, 05:08 PM
  #122
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Originally Posted by Cognition View Post
I support TDMM's view in this.

Players exist in a particular context when they play hockey. Role players are in fact used effectively by teams, and if Holmstrom can have a certain value to a team by fulfilling a specific role, that determines his value, regardless of whether some kind of floating abstract system that weights all attributes equally would give him a lower numerical rating. The purpose of a player is to help his team win, not acquire a broad portfolio of skills.
Where would you rank Holmstrom, all-time, as a PP net presence?

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04-07-2011, 05:10 PM
  #123
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OK here is my completely roster with a couple of tweaks:

Head coach - Punch Imlach
Assistant - Alain VIgneault

Steve SHutt-Howie Morenz-Daniel Briere
John Leclair-Eric Lindros-Kenny Wharam
John Tonelli-Walt TKazcuk-Bobby Schmautz
Zach Parise-Kris Draper-Adam Deadmarsh

Flash Hollett-Tim Horton
Ebbie Goodfellow-Keith Magnusson
Roman Hamrlik-Robert Svehla

Lorne Chabot
Nik Khabibulin

Spares: Tomas Holmstrom, Alexei Yashin, Lubomir Visnovski

PP1: Leclair-Lindros-Morenz-Goodfellow-Hollett
PP2: Shutt-Tonelli-Wharram-Horton-Hamrlik

PK1: -Tkaczuk-Schmautz-Magnuson-Horton
PK2: -Tonelli-Draper-Goodfellow-Svehla

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04-07-2011, 05:10 PM
  #124
TheDevilMadeMe
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Where would you rank Holmstrom, all-time, as a PP net presence?
Good enough to be effective on a 2nd PP unit in a 40 team draft, maybe even in a 30 team one.

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04-07-2011, 05:23 PM
  #125
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Good enough to be effective on a 2nd PP unit in a 40 team draft, maybe even in a 30 team one.
What you are gaining in putting Holmstrom there, you are losing equally (if not more) by not having a skilled player that will actually get more points on those PPs than him. See, here's my issue with Holmstrom.. we think he's so good on the PP or whatever, but the fact is, Detroit's PP hasn't been anything abnormally special since Holmstrom has been there.

Starting from 1998:

6th
11th
1st
2nd
2nd
1st
5th
1st
21st
3rd
1st
9th
5th

A solid 5th average, however, in only ONE of those seasons was Detroit noticeably ahead of the next best teams on the PP. See, we're trying to look at ALL-TIME greatness. I would say that Holmstrom is definitely the best PP net presence for a long time now (starting from 2002-2003, the first time he hit over 9 power play goals, which is when I'd say he was really starting to get the PP ice time), however, Detroit's PP hasn't been so overwhelmingly ahead of the rest of the pack that we could conclusively call Holmstrom even among the top-30 best PP net presences. See, the thing is, the way we're talking about Holmstrom now is probably the way they were talking about similar guys in eras past who did the same thing, but didn't really see much offense. History has forgotten those guys.. and history will forget Holmstrom, too.

If Holmstrom was solidly getting top-5 PP goals per year and Detroit was always 1st on the PP by a good margin over the rest of the teams, then I'd say Holmstrom has a case for an all-time great PP net presence. The issue is that none of these things are happening. Detroit has merely been a very strong PP team, but not so strong that you can say any one player has made a significant difference. This is the team that has been the best on paper for over a decade now, and it's not because of Holmstrom. I guarantee you that if Holmstrom was replaced with Franzen, for example, the results wouldn't be much different. Anyone can put their body in front of the net, and though they may not be as effective at it as Holmstrom, Detroit is so skilled that the pucks will go in anyways.

Gross overrating of Holmstrom, and I hope it ends some time soon.

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