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Old
04-22-2011, 02:12 PM
  #76
CapnCornelius
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The fact that a lot of this seems to be premised on a team moving to Winnipeg, which is largely a fantasy of the Canadian media, pretty much puts this in the realm of...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCFB2akLh4s

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04-23-2011, 12:07 PM
  #77
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Candidly, I don't understand what Winnipeg brings to the league. Higher TV ratings? Huge draw at the gate for the other teams? Market everybody wants to be in? Not meaning to slight Winnipeg, but hell, we'd be just as well off putting a team in Boise.

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04-23-2011, 12:42 PM
  #78
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Candidly, I don't understand what Winnipeg brings to the league. Higher TV ratings? Huge draw at the gate for the other teams? Market everybody wants to be in? Not meaning to slight Winnipeg, but hell, we'd be just as well off putting a team in Boise.
For the league, it's an argument between potential versus actual draws/ratings. Phoenix has a huge potential market, but Winnipeg has a larger actual market. The argument against Phoenix is that they're currently successful having made the playoffs two years in a row, yet the market isn't changing very much. If a team moves to Winnipeg, the games will consistently sell out but there would be less room for potential growth due to city size.

Contrast that with Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Columbus. When these places have a successful (or new) team, the games are consistently sold out and there is relatively high television ratings.

However, this argument is moot if the ownership (NHL in Phoenix's case) willingly sells the team to a legal buyer. This is more important for Atlanta where the NHL may say that they don't want the team to move, but realistically they can't do much to block it if the team is LEGALLY sold within league guidelines to an owner wishing to move the team.

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04-23-2011, 01:51 PM
  #79
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I don't think Phoenix has a potentially big market at all. If that state can't even support football adequately then what makes anyone think hockey will ever take off. Up until recently years, the Cardinals stadium was always half empty. I'm not one to say a city doesn't deserve hockey, because frankly I don't care where the teams are located as long as Columbus has a team; however Arizona is known for not supporting pro teams.

edit: actually I take back what I said. While they don't support even football the way it should be supported, hockey can survive and thrive with less support, so there probably is the potential there to be ranked in the top 10 in the NHL for things like ratings and attendance, but the same can be said for every team in the league.


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04-23-2011, 02:23 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by leesmith View Post
Candidly, I don't understand what Winnipeg brings to the league. Higher TV ratings? Huge draw at the gate for the other teams? Market everybody wants to be in? Not meaning to slight Winnipeg, but hell, we'd be just as well off putting a team in Boise.
Crede made some good points - to add to it it's clear in reading what league sources are quoted as saying that the issue is "league" versus "market. In other words, despite the fact the a move to Winnipeg would mlikely bolster the local market for the team, the league believes that, for national and local TV ratings and for other markets, Phoenix is a better market - perhaps by reputation or size or its location in the U.S. or whatever.

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04-23-2011, 04:09 PM
  #81
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Originally Posted by Doug61 View Post
I don't think Phoenix has a potentially big market at all. If that state can't even support football adequately then what makes anyone think hockey will ever take off. Up until recently years, the Cardinals stadium was always half empty. I'm not one to say a city doesn't deserve hockey, because frankly I don't care where the teams are located as long as Columbus has a team; however Arizona is known for not supporting pro teams.

edit: actually I take back what I said. While they don't support even football the way it should be supported, hockey can survive and thrive with less support, so there probably is the potential there to be ranked in the top 10 in the NHL for things like ratings and attendance, but the same can be said for every team in the league.
I agree. Seems like Phoenix and Florida are two places destined to fail for ice hockey. With a sport like the NFL or even MLB (NBA too?) I don't think it matters where they put a team. The league brand is so high and the revenue from outside of gate sales is enormous. The NFL could have a team in Little Rock and not sweat it I would imagine.

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04-24-2011, 12:51 AM
  #82
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Originally Posted by CapnCornelius View Post
The fact that a lot of this seems to be premised on a team moving to Winnipeg, which is largely a fantasy of the Canadian media, pretty much puts this in the realm of...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCFB2akLh4s
For once, it seems that we agree on something.

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04-24-2011, 09:09 AM
  #83
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Apparently the Jackets recently made an inquiry about moving to the East:

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Jackets inquire about moving to East
Team faces hurdles if it were to switch


As recently as two months ago, the Blue Jackets expressed to the NHL a desire to move to the Eastern Conference, club president Mike Priest told The Dispatch last week.
http://www.bluejacketsxtra.com/live/...t.html?sid=101

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04-24-2011, 04:56 PM
  #84
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Wings first in line to move to the East? "No such agreement exists"

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Since the Blue Jackets joined the NHL, it has been whispered that the first club to move to the East would be Detroit, that the Red Wings' desire to leave the Western Conference predates the Blue Jackets' existence.

No such agreement exists, a league source told The Dispatch this week. Priest said he's been told as much, too.

"I have personally never been told that anybody has a leg up over anybody else," Priest said. "If there's a team that needs to move to the East, every team would be looked at before any decision is made."

http://www.dispatch.com/live/content...t.html?sid=101

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04-24-2011, 09:58 PM
  #85
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Neither of us are going to move.

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Old
04-25-2011, 12:02 PM
  #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crede777 View Post
For the league, it's an argument between potential versus actual draws/ratings. Phoenix has a huge potential market, but Winnipeg has a larger actual market. The argument against Phoenix is that they're currently successful having made the playoffs two years in a row, yet the market isn't changing very much. If a team moves to Winnipeg, the games will consistently sell out but there would be less room for potential growth due to city size.

Contrast that with Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Columbus. When these places have a successful (or new) team, the games are consistently sold out and there is relatively high television ratings.

However, this argument is moot if the ownership (NHL in Phoenix's case) willingly sells the team to a legal buyer. This is more important for Atlanta where the NHL may say that they don't want the team to move, but realistically they can't do much to block it if the team is LEGALLY sold within league guidelines to an owner wishing to move the team.
The last two years are hardly a barometer of Phoenix's potential. And here's why--their success was overshadowed by the fact that the team was likely to move. A lot of people just are not going to support a team if they think it is probably going to move.

A combination of stability and a winning product is what finally has pushed the Predators past the 16,000 mark--a team the Canadian media was all to happy to move to Hamilton a few years back.

While I confess I've paid little attention to the current situation in Atlanta, any new owner is going to have to get Board of Governor's approval and my understanding is that there is a period of time that any new owner would not be able to move the team under league rules.

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Originally Posted by Doug61 View Post
I don't think Phoenix has a potentially big market at all. If that state can't even support football adequately then what makes anyone think hockey will ever take off. Up until recently years, the Cardinals stadium was always half empty. I'm not one to say a city doesn't deserve hockey, because frankly I don't care where the teams are located as long as Columbus has a team; however Arizona is known for not supporting pro teams.

edit: actually I take back what I said. While they don't support even football the way it should be supported, hockey can survive and thrive with less support, so there probably is the potential there to be ranked in the top 10 in the NHL for things like ratings and attendance, but the same can be said for every team in the league.
Imagine that--people not wanting to watch a crummy product in 100 degree heat. Those are truly horrible fans!

People say these same things about Florida. Truth be told though, most of the teams in Florida have been poorly run--Panthers, Marlins, (until recently) Rays.

The Canadian media likes to pretend that their markets would just be thrilled to have hockey, even if it was bad hockey. But go back and look through some historical attendance figures and you'll discover a dirty little secret--outside of Toronto, people in Canada will not pay for a sub-par product after a couple years. They also ignore that the only revenue that might increase (and that is "might") is gate revenue as a result of a new Canadian team. The TV market in Canada will not change as people in Winnipeg are watching with or without a team. Merchandise sales will not dramatically change--in fact, the Alberta teams are somewhat fearful of the effect a new Winnipeg franchise will have on their sales.

If this seems counterintuitive, look closer to home (very close for me)--the lack of an NFL team in Los Angeles. While it seems like a no-brainer, the reality is that not having an NFL team has actually increased television viewership because there are fewer blackout restrictions. A team in LA would likely decrease merchandise sales for the San Diego Chargers and the Oakland Raiders (amongst other teams). The marginal difference in gate revenue between an LA franchise and a franchise in another city might not make up for the lost TV revenues. And that is for a sport that has saturated the American market. Hockey has the added issue of wanting/needing to grow south of the Canadian border if it is to maximize its revenues.

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04-25-2011, 12:31 PM
  #87
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Originally Posted by CapnCornelius View Post
The Canadian media likes to pretend that their markets would just be thrilled to have hockey, even if it was bad hockey. But go back and look through some historical attendance figures and you'll discover a dirty little secret--outside of Toronto, people in Canada will not pay for a sub-par product after a couple years. They also ignore that the only revenue that might increase (and that is "might") is gate revenue as a result of a new Canadian team. The TV market in Canada will not change as people in Winnipeg are watching with or without a team. Merchandise sales will not dramatically change--in fact, the Alberta teams are somewhat fearful of the effect a new Winnipeg franchise will have on their sales.
People tend to forget the financial hardships that some of the Canadian team had for a while. Having said that, to be fair, the Oiler fans have been supporting that team.

But yes, Canada needs American teams to be relevant on the world stage whether they choose to ignore it or not. Canada has about 10% of our population (36th in the world) while having 20% of the NHL teams. Winnipeg is roughly similar in population as the Columbus Area. But Manitoba has no where close the population of Ohio.

They also don't support 4 or 5 major sports in their large cities, if you include soccer.

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04-25-2011, 01:43 PM
  #88
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Winnipeg is roughly similar in population as the Columbus Area. But Manitoba has no where close the population of Ohio.
It's not nearly that close.

City of Winnipeg population, per 2006 census: 633,451 (about 3500 folks per square mile)
City of Columbus population, per 2010 census: 787,033 (also about 3500 folks per square mile)

Winnipeg metro area population, per 2006 census: 694,668 (about 340 folks per square mile)
Columbus metro area population, per 2010 census: 1,773,120 (can't find metro area density, but Franklin County's (which is just over a million folks per 2000) is about 2000 per square mile.)

Seriously. Some of the cities folks up north like to submit for NHL team consideration (*cough* *cough* *saskatoon* *cough* *halifax* *cough*) get rivaled in population down here by small college towns every Saturday afternoon during football season.

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04-25-2011, 03:27 PM
  #89
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It's not nearly that close.

City of Winnipeg population, per 2006 census: 633,451 (about 3500 folks per square mile)
City of Columbus population, per 2010 census: 787,033 (also about 3500 folks per square mile)
We just said the same thing.

Once you expand outside of the city, that's where the differences arise. Compare Columbus Metro to Manitoba. 1.7 to 1.2. Now compare the state of Ohio, 11.5 million. That's almost 1/3 the population of Canada.

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04-25-2011, 05:54 PM
  #90
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Can't argue those numbers, but the difference is everyone in Winnipeg loves hockey, and they'd sellout every game. In Columbus, maybe 10-20 percent of the metro area likes hockey.

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04-25-2011, 07:22 PM
  #91
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A team in Winnepeg would make fans and media types all warm and fuzzy and it'd probably do well for the pockets of whomever owns it.

But I'm not sure if it benefits the league in any real way. Do sellouts equate to any benefit for the league as a whole other than avoiding the bad press of empty seats?

Is the filled potential of a secondary market in Canada worth more in real money to the league than the unfilled potnetial of a much larger U.S. market?

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04-25-2011, 08:50 PM
  #92
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The league gets more from a half filled arena and TV rights in the Phoenix market than it does with a full arena and TV rights in the Winnipeg market.

The other teams in the league get a bigger draw at the gate playing a team from Phoenix than a team from Winnipeg.

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04-27-2011, 06:55 PM
  #93
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The NHL should put the Jackets in with the teams from the old Confederate states.

Long live the union!
Which, by the end of the decade, will likely be down to the Stars and maybe the Canes (and the Caps, if you take into account the Virginia part of their fan base).

By the way, if we do go to the east, maybe FSO could start airing all the road games.

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04-28-2011, 12:45 AM
  #94
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Originally Posted by Jackets Woodchuck View Post
Which, by the end of the decade, will likely be down to the Stars and maybe the Canes (and the Caps, if you take into account the Virginia part of their fan base).

By the way, if we do go to the east, maybe FSO could start airing all the road games.
Back in the elder days, the easy way to tell if someone had no idea what they were talking about w/r/t franchise viability, they'd talk about "southern teams like Columbus."

That sad misperception has since been corrected. Nowadays, the blatant telltale is "failing teams like Nashville."

Remember what Nationwide was like during that playoff appearance? Bridgestone's right up there.

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04-28-2011, 10:31 AM
  #95
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Originally Posted by Viqsi View Post
Back in the elder days, the easy way to tell if someone had no idea what they were talking about w/r/t franchise viability, they'd talk about "southern teams like Columbus."

That sad misperception has since been corrected. Nowadays, the blatant telltale is "failing teams like Nashville."

Remember what Nationwide was like during that playoff appearance? Bridgestone's right up there.
I think that if the Jackets could build a consistent winner, Nationwide Arena could easily start to see an extended sold-out streak like other teams brag about. It could be like Nationwide during the playoffs (or Bridgestone in Nashville) every night.

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04-28-2011, 10:42 AM
  #96
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I think that if the Jackets could build a consistent winner, Nationwide Arena could easily start to see an extended sold-out streak like other teams brag about. It could be like Nationwide during the playoffs (or Bridgestone in Nashville) every night.
I agree, but it can really be hard to re-capture that early buzz. Look at Cleveland, the Tribe sold out Jacobs Field 455 straight times, back in the '90s. Now, even though the team is playing well, the crowds are pathetic. Yes, the weather has been awful, but fans don't yet have faith that they're going to see good, competetive baseball every night. It'll take more than just a few wins, or even a few good months, to recover their fans. And that's in a town that has had major league baseball for 110 years!

Here, after ten years of failure and no great history to fall back on, it's going to take time. Give us a winner for a full season or two, then we'll see if Columbus truly is a major league market. I believe it is, but it's yet to be proven to the nation's sports fans and media.

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04-28-2011, 11:04 AM
  #97
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I think that if the Jackets could build a consistent winner, Nationwide Arena could easily start to see an extended sold-out streak like other teams brag about. It could be like Nationwide during the playoffs (or Bridgestone in Nashville) every night.
I'm just not sure I agree with this. Winning would give a boost for a while, but after a time fans get jaded. When the Jackets first came to town, many of us said, "Well, they will be terrible for the forseeable future, but DAMN, I'm just happy Columbus has an NHL Franchise. We're Major League now!"

After years of ineptitude and some PR disasters, just having a major league franchise isn't enough. Now we must compete.

How many OSU fans scream and call for heads when the team stumbles and then finishes with a Big Ten championship, a BCS Bowl win and a top 5-10 ranking?

I believe the answer is a mix: compete and get fans back in the door, market much more effectively, invest the funds and time to develop a generation or two of Jackets fans, so the team becomes a part of the culture and fabric of the community.

I think this is the formula anywhere sports succeed.

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04-28-2011, 11:50 AM
  #98
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Which, by the end of the decade, will likely be down to the Stars and maybe the Canes (and the Caps, if you take into account the Virginia part of their fan base).

By the way, if we do go to the east, maybe FSO could start airing all the road games.
So, Tampa Bay is going to be moving? Someone needs to let Stevie Y know that.

This idea of teams moving en masse out of the sunbelt is a figment of the imagination of bored Canadian writers whose teams didn't qualify for the playoffs. The Canes are safe. The Panthers have been a disaster forever and a day and yet no move is imminent. The Coyotes (Arizona was technically a Confederate state) are not as likely to move as TSN and others would have you believe. The Kings have been playing for over 40 years in LA. The Ducks will likely be on even better financial footing if their Arena gets a second tenant in the next couple years, which may or may not happen. Even the once vulnerable Preds appear to have built up a fanbase in an area where the fanbase is likely to grow further due to the attractiveness of Tennessee as a retirement locale (no state income tax).

Which leaves dysfunctional Atlanta and their 8 owners--and, yet again, a sports league should be questioned as to why they ever allowed this group of owners with this ownership structure to exist in the first place. Given the lengths that the league went to with the Coyotes, don't expect the Mayflowers to move the Thrashers overnight if at all.

20 years from now, when there are kids being drafted from Carolina, Texas, Tennessee and Arizona (as they are now from California) hockey fans will look back at those old Canadian media articles and realize how short-sighted they were to assume that hockey could only survive in places that it snows in June.

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04-28-2011, 01:01 PM
  #99
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Update on the situation in Phoenix, and to a lesser extent, Atlanta.

Coyotes lost $36.6 million last season. WOW, just Wow.

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2...edium=referral

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04-29-2011, 02:44 AM
  #100
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So, Tampa Bay is going to be moving? Someone needs to let Stevie Y know that.
I forgot about Florida being in the Confederacy. Both of their teams are safe.

I'm still not convinced about Nashville. I want to see how they handle a prolonged bad streak.

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