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Official Post-Season Discussion. Update: Gauthier to meet with Meehan

View Poll Results: Do you think Wiz will sign with the Habs ?
Yes 25 29.07%
No 61 70.93%
Voters: 86. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
04-30-2011, 02:56 PM
  #251
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I think the best bet out of that list is Rupp.

He would give you the most value for your buck.

He can still contribute offensively unlike(Konopka, who is just faceoffs and fighting), he is really gritty and hits hard, has size, and fights. He would be a welcome addition to exaclty what the Habs are looking for.

He could probably play there 3rd line and defiently anchor the 4th line.

Imagine a line like this, I would drool:

Moen Rupp White

That would be one of the grittiest lines in the NHL.

I think you could sign him in Montreal maybe 1 or 2 years at a 1mill a piece. The taxes is what would hurt us signing him any cheaper.

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Old
04-30-2011, 03:03 PM
  #252
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Hopefully one of Rupp, or Kenopka can be signed.

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Old
04-30-2011, 03:05 PM
  #253
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Originally Posted by TheWhiteIdea View Post
Please get rid of Hamerlik, Gomez, Spacek and Halpern

Please add some toughness and someone who can win a faceoff or two.
You want to get rid of one of the top faceoff guys in the NHL, then you complain about faceoffs.

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04-30-2011, 03:07 PM
  #254
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Originally Posted by habfaninvictoria View Post
For me its not about the stats, but when you take up more than 1/10th of the cap space and produce like a 3rd line player you better be the next coming of Bob Gainey.

IF, as you say we were good 5 on 5 then Gomez' stats look even worse. I say IF only because we had one of the better PK's in the league and the PP was strong too. If we were strong 5 on 5 then we should have had monster stats up and down the lineup in terms of +/- .

I'm not hating on him, but for the $$ it's probably the worst contract in the league. If he's good in the room then mitigates the stats a bit.

He's one of the best in the league at breaking down the trap, unfortunately he needs to follow that up with more than one or two options, it's too easy to read and the systems are too strong. His best game of the year was game 1 and by far. He was engaged, skated hard and wasn't afraid to go the hard places. For the remainder though he was too easy to cover.

Yes he'll likely have a bounceback year, but the bar is set pretty low. Kovalchuk had a crappy year for him, but he dominated for parts of it too. That's what I expect for that kind of contract, someone who can dominate.... I hope we get to see it soon.
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Originally Posted by onice View Post
I can not believe to what depths Habs fans have fallen. Making excuses for players that will not help them win a cup.

You want a rational debate. Okay

I agree with you, he'll have a bounce back year. He'll bounce to 40 maybe 50 points and still be a minus player. Why do I say that? Let's look at his last 5 years:

60
70
58
59
38

You see a downward trend? He'll be 32-33 years old next season. On most nights this season Gomez looked gassed at the end of most of his shifts. That tells me he was either out of shape or father time caught up to him. I suspect it's a bit of both.

What type of player is he? He's a perimeter playmaker whose bread & butter play is to gain the blueline, skate off to the boards and then set up his line mates. He rarely skates into the slot even to bounce on a rebound. The league has caught up with this one trick pony. More often than not he either ends up losing the puck or passing it to an opponent. He hasn't adapted to the way other teams are defending him. Maybe he'll have a Kovalev moment over the summer and watch some tapes of himself but that won't do any good. Gomez has played the same way since I first saw him in New Jersey. He never played any different and to make matters worse he was always a liability defensively.

But let's say I'm wrong. Let's say he bounces back stronger than I think. You really think you'll become a SC contender by tying up 7.5 million dollars on a defensively weak 60 point centerman who is softer than melted marshmallows.

Gomez is not the answer even if he rebounds. He is at best a complimentary player (that means #3 center man) but the Habs need a real number 1 center man.

Now, if you tell me his value is at the lowest and it's a dumb decision to trade him. I agree with you. But it was an even dumber decision to trade for him two years ago and very few people complained about it back then.

If we keep him, we're dooming this team to the middle of the pack for next year. If you want to wait till he rebounds next year, you may get more for him but you will not get what you need. We need a #1 center man. No one will trade you a number 1 center man for Gomez no matter how much he rebounds.

But there is a #1 center man on the market as of July 1. Brad Richards. You unload Gomez and apply his salary plus whatever it takes and you become a contender.

Getting Richards will not only make Gionta & Patches all that much better but it will help Pleks.

That's why we need to unload Gomez. He is dead weight whether he rebounds or not next year.
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Originally Posted by Bourne View Post
Mentioning Gomez being even marginally close to a Selke is laughable. Put him up against someone like Kesler on a nightly basis and Gomez would be so badly out played it would be almost hilarious to see. He is defensively average at best and noticeably inferior in the offensive zone if he attempts anything excluding a pass. Frankly, I would credit his five on five play more to Gionta and Pacioretty than him being decent.




No, Montreal is a 100 point club if Markov and Gorges are in the line up. Replace Gomez with Eller and they still could be provided Cammalleri and others retain a degree of consistency that was lacking this season. When Kostitsyn suited up with Eller, he played reasonably well despite the limited ice time. Put him with Gomez and he was horrid. Cammalleri had similar issues, which was primarily why when Pacioretty actually worked. Martin never even attempted anything else or thought that Pac might be better on Plek's wing.

Gomez is not difficult to replace. Unless he has a remarkable turnaround season, he will become a liability as soon as next season. He was certainly one against Boston, excluding two games.



... okay, now you are speaking in delusions. Richards is a point per game player, who is one year removed from a 91 point season. Unless Gomez miraculously nets 70 points next season, paying eight million for Richards is a widely superior option if it were available and this purely from point statistics basis. If you factor in everything Richards offers, there is just no comparison. You are significantly undervaluing Richards to craft an argument in favor of Gomez for reasons I can only attribute to blind optimism. The is evident by claiming Plekanec is the better of the two, which is completely inaccurate. Plekanec's career high is just an average year on Richards' stats.

If we signed Richards, then one of Eller or Plekanec becomes expendable in the distance future. Ideally, we could move one to fill a need elsewhere, possibly on the wing for instance. Alternatively, we could run San Jose's system. Joe Pavelski on the third line is just mocking other teams with how much depth you have and with the development of Couture. San Jose could move either for that top ranking defenseman they covet to play with Boyle.

As for declining. Ask St. Louis, Selanne and Iginla how "declining with age" has been working for them. A long term contract would be a risk, but at least we would be comfort knowing Richards would maintain 60-70 points at worst far more likely than he would drop to 38 points.



Once again you are blurring the facts to appease your argument. Both Marleau and Plekanec had one average to poor season, the latter of which was still finding his game at the NHL level. Gomez on the other hand was having average seasons two years ago, dropped to abysmal and still costs more than either did at the time. Gomez at 50 points is still vastly overpaid and hinders our success. He will suit up this season only because we haven't an alternative and probably will have the cap space until we sign a large amount of UFAs. Unless he nets 60 points next year, he should be gone.
Agreed on all counts. While Gomez is not a bad player, he certainly isn't worth the dollars he's getting paid, especially not the last two seasons. It boggles my mind how someone can try to sell us on his defensive game when he was a team worst -15 during the regular season and another -6 in the playoffs...

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Old
04-30-2011, 03:08 PM
  #255
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Originally Posted by Dekar View Post
I'm with this.

What annoys me is that the two guys I like the most as far as their personalities go are the two guys I want to see leave for the betterment of the team.

Gomez is untradeable at his cap-hit, and unless we get lucky and are able to trade Spacek to a team that's having injury trouble and need a one-season depth defenceman, nobody's going to want him either as he's aging, slow, and prone to offensive zone mistakes.

When you have so much invested into a guy like Gomez, I really hate to admit any major failings and keep the faith, but the letdown this season has been beyond what I'm willing to overlook. I'm very hopeful that he'll turn it around next season though, so I won't give up on him if the management doesn't, but it's going to be a bitter pill to swallow if this happens again.
Gomez represents a double-edged sword with this organization as he represents both the best chance we have at icing a very complete team next season, should he return to form, or a team with a glaring weakness in the #2 center position should he continue to falter and Eller/Desharnais are unable to fill the void. Furthermore, while I still believe he is still trade-able, should he have another season like this one, he will only devalue further which will take that opportunity away rather quickly.

All this being said, the end of next season may also provide an opportunity to rid ourselves of him, should he not perform, that would allow us to save face (as in not sending him to the minors), avoid the cap penalty from buying him out, and one that wouldn't involve a trade. Following next season, the NHL and NHLPA will enter another CBA. There is absolutely no guarantee this will happen again, but, either at the end of or just before discussions took place, all NHL teams were allowed penalty-free buyout period in which teams were allowed to buyout players without taking the hit against the cap they'd normally take for doing this. I haven't heard any indication that this will come to be again but it remains a possibility.

As for Spacek, he, or at least his salary, has sort of handcuffed us in the sense that even if we were able to trade him we'd need the dollars to extend Subban/Price next season. At this point, I'd be happier seeing them trade him for whatever they can get because, outside of experience, I don't feel as though there is anything he can offer that Weber can't do for (an estimated) $3mil cheaper. His salary may allow us to take on another player for the year but I'm not convinced that we can afford to use his money to sign another player to a multi-year deal due to Subban/Price.

So in response to your post, I don't think you need to get out the pill and pour a glass of water yet but at the same token starting to sugar-coat that pill won't do you any harm either.

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Old
04-30-2011, 03:09 PM
  #256
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Originally Posted by old scotia View Post
There are a bunch of them. Steve MacIntyre, Mike Rupp, Eric Godard, Cam Janssen, Zenon Konopka and more.... I think the only one who could possible go toe to toe with Chara would be MacIntyre. We definetely need one even if he only plays in the regular season. At least Konopka can take face offs.
MacIntyre would never go toe to toe with Chara.

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04-30-2011, 03:39 PM
  #257
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I respectfully disagree with you. Mike Rupp went toe to toe with Chara and lost but I felt did pretty good. MacIntyre is a step above him. I'm sure MacIntyre would go with Chara it's whether or not Chara will go toe to toe with him. If you look at th Chara/Laraques fights...Chara wanted to wrestle and no part of exchanging blow to blow.

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04-30-2011, 03:50 PM
  #258
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Originally Posted by Habsterix View Post
Agreed on all counts. While Gomez is not a bad player, he certainly isn't worth the dollars he's getting paid, especially not the last two seasons. It boggles my mind how someone can try to sell us on his defensive game when he was a team worst -15 during the regular season and another -6 in the playoffs...
Plus minus is not a defensive stat. It's an outscoring stat. Gomez is a minus player because he has low goals for, not high goals against. And we've already been over why he has low goals for. His defense is fine, his plus minus is just another sign that he couldn't buy a goal at evens.

As a side note, what boggles my mind is that people try to make statistical arguments without even understanding the basic definition of the stats they use, and then turn around and accuse me of overvaluing stats.

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04-30-2011, 03:56 PM
  #259
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I feel sorry for Gomez. You could see how excited he was after the first play off game when he has interviewed by Eliot. Patrick Roy could ressurected him. I just hope Patrick Roy takes over the team either as GM or coach. Not sure which I'd rather.

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Old
04-30-2011, 04:19 PM
  #260
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Originally Posted by old scotia View Post
I feel sorry for Gomez. You could see how excited he was after the first play off game when he has interviewed by Eliot. Patrick Roy could ressurected him. I just hope Patrick Roy takes over the team either as GM or coach. Not sure which I'd rather.
Not sure if serious

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Old
04-30-2011, 04:52 PM
  #261
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Yeah, I certainly do recognize this melody. "We need more size, we need more physical players"! You're nothing if not predictable.

You're also, I think, missing what I believe Gauthier saw. I think he has every reason to be optimistic. This year actually marked a seismic shift in how the Habs played, but that shift ended up being plowed under by the Habs' unfortunate lack of finish.

Montreal went from a low-volume, average-finish offense to a high-volume, low-finish offense. It looks like a subtle and meaningless difference, but it is anything but -- because finish fluctuates heavily year-over-year, and tends to go strongly pull towards the average over time. The only way to get consistently good offensive results is to get volume. This is true both at the player and at the team level.

In other words, if they play the same way next year, odds are good they'll end up with 20-30 more goals for. If they'd had the same finish as last year they would have, and last year they were only low-average.

My bold prediction is that we won't be talking about the Habs' popgun offense next year.

And they cut down on chances against at the same time. They were much, much better than last year at both ends of the ice. This is the first Habs team in ages that was actually above-water in 5-on-5 chance generation.

Beat-up and battered through they were, the 2010-2011 Habs were the best Habs club in at least 10, probably more like 15 years. Gauthier doesn't need to do anything radical, and he'd be crazy to.
So when next year rolls around and we're still pathetic at scoring 5vs5 you gonna stick to this line of thinking?

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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Penner would've fit the Habs beautifully, not because he's big, but because he's an excellent even-strength player.

I think Habsterix would actually have hated Penner. He's not his type of player. He doesn't go for the big hit, he doesn't pump his legs, he doesn't drive to the net on every play. In fact I think he'd have instantly become the Habs' scapegoat, possibly even ahead of Gomez.

He is, however, a strong driver of 5-on-5 play, a guy who can play against anyone effectively and would've been a great complement to Plekanec and Cammalleri. And I'm actually pretty disappointed the Habs didn't trade Tinordi-and-a-first for him. I understand why they didn't, but I still think they should have.
You don't see a strong correlation between size and 5vs5 scoring, Boston being the best ES scoring team this year and their skill level is lacking compared to ours imo. They have the non finesse type players though that don't need a man advantage to score. Same as Dustin Penner. Ever consider why these types of players are 5vs5 drivers?


Last edited by PyrettaBlaze*: 05-06-2011 at 10:52 PM.
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04-30-2011, 06:00 PM
  #262
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The guys I'm interested in getting up front are:

Brooks Laich (decent scoring, good defensively, good at faceoffs, doesn't get injured often) - $3.5 million?
Maxime Talbot (clutch in playoffs, physical, good defensively) - $1.5 million?
Mike Rupp (physical, big, can score and fight) - $1 million?
Boyd Gordon (big RH centremen, 60% faceoffs in round 1 & 3min SH ice-time per game) - $800,000?


I'd take those 4 over Kostitsyn ($3.25mill), Pouliot ($1.25 mill?), Pyatt ($500k), Halpern ($600k)

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04-30-2011, 06:20 PM
  #263
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Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
So when next year rolls around and we're still pathetic at scoring 5vs5 you gonna stick to this line of thinking?
Honestly, I've already changed my tune. I expected the Habs to suck at scoring 5-on-5 this year, because they were an ab-so-freaking-lu-te-ly pathetic puck possession club last season, and most seasons before.

Turns out that it's not what happened. Their puck possession went right up through the roof, which SHOULD have made them one of the better offensive clubs at evens in the league, except that their shooting percentage crashed at the same time. So they ended up not scoring more goals. But the reason they did is that the goalies they faced effectively played better than Carey Price.

But make no mistake: that wasn't a subtle change, that was a massive turnaround. I have every expectation that if the Habs play next year like they did this, they will rack up goals at evens, size or no size.

But hey, what do I know? I never expected the Habs to turn their game around to that extent this year. But I don't think I'm wrong this time. There's no reason to expect that the Habs' 5-on-5 game will crater, and no reason to expect them to be the fourth-worst shooting percentage club in the NHL again. Even if they get a low-average shooting percentage like they did last year, they're going to end up a good 20 goals ahead of this year.

Hey, they might even pull a Boston and go from fourth-worst to fourth-best, which will make them look like an offensive juggernaut -- especially since Montreal was a much better possession club than Boston this year.

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04-30-2011, 06:23 PM
  #264
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Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
You don't see a strong correlation between size and 5vs5 scoring, Boston being the best ES scoring team this year and their skill level is lacking compared to ours imo. They have the non finesse type players though that don't need a man advantage to score. Same as Dustin Penner. Ever consider why these types of players are 5vs5 drivers?
They're not. Well, Penner is, but that's a function of his hockey sense and, yes, his size and strength. Size and strength are tools, just like speed and puck skills and -- the most important -- hockey intelligence. Size and strength help, but they are hardly required.

Boston is actually a fantastic example of what I mean because last year, they were the Habs. People think they are an offensive juggernaut this year because they had the most 5-on-5 goals. That happened because they are a decent (not great, decent) 5-on-5 club but also, they had the 4th-best shooting percentage.

What people forget about Boston is that, last year with a very similar roster, they had the third-least 5-on-5 goals -- a mere 4 goals ahead of the last-place Habs. That didn't happen because last year they were a small club that suddenly became huge in a year. It happened because that year their 5-on-5 shooting percentage was the worst in the NHL -- pretty much equal to the Habs' this year. Even though they were also a decent-not-great 5-on-5 club that year (and arguably better than this year), they couldn't buy a goal.

They went from a popgun offense to an offensive juggernaut... not because of size or roster changes, entirely because their shooting percentage took a wild swing.

The same thing could easily happen to the Habs next year. If it does, Montreal will also be the top-scoring team in the league (especially if they maintain their perenially strong PP). Realistically, it almost certainly won't, but their shooting percentage should normally return to normal. Assuming they keep driving the play like they have this year, they should be a top-10 offensive club at even-strength.

Another note: expect Boston to have a middling offense next year. And since their defense is almost entirely dependent on Tim Thomas standing on his head, and he's not going to have historic seasons every year, it wouldn't surprise me to see Boston narrowly miss the playoffs. I expect to see them in third place in the division, being leapfrogged by both Montreal and Buffalo. All assuming no radical roster changes a la Montreal-in-2009, of course...


Last edited by MathMan: 04-30-2011 at 06:28 PM.
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Old
04-30-2011, 06:28 PM
  #265
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When grazing over the impending ufa list a couple months ago, 2 names came to mind.

1) Brooks Laich - He can play in every situation be it pp, pk or even strength and is versatile enough to play on any line and any position. My only question is whether his lack of speed will hurt him in this system but I think he's got the smarts to overcome that.

2) Scottie Upshall - Here's an energy guy with tremendous speed and work ethic, who I think has more scoring upside than he has shown. I think he's a great 3rd line fit, and shouldn't be expensive based on his numbers.

There's so many ways that the habs can go on defense but I think they can be fine without adding new faces.

Markov-Gorges, Gill-Subban, Spacek-Wisniewski
Weber

Andrei Kostitsyn won me over again this season. This is the most satisfied I've been with him since his last contract season... hopefully that wont continue to be a trend.

I want to keep pouliot around a bit longer to see if he can figure things out, but nothing will be handed to him.


Last edited by Hackett: 04-30-2011 at 06:39 PM.
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Old
04-30-2011, 06:33 PM
  #266
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i'd like
XXX - Pleks - Camm
Patches - Gomez - Gio
Kostitsyn - Eller - White
Darche - DD - Moen
13th forward enforcer

XXX being a big winger, we could have some solid scoring.

Markov - PK
Gorges - Wiz
Gill - Weber
Spacek

and if we could ship gomez off to the khl and sign richards with his money we'd be instantly a contender haha, dreams.

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04-30-2011, 06:53 PM
  #267
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Honestly, I've already changed my tune. I expected the Habs to suck at scoring 5-on-5 this year, because they were an ab-so-freaking-lu-te-ly pathetic puck possession club last season, and most seasons before.

Turns out that it's not what happened. Their puck possession went right up through the roof, which SHOULD have made them one of the better offensive clubs at evens in the league, except that their shooting percentage crashed at the same time. So they ended up not scoring more goals. But the reason they did is that the goalies they faced effectively played better than Carey Price.

But make no mistake: that wasn't a subtle change, that was a massive turnaround. I have every expectation that if the Habs play next year like they did this, they will rack up goals at evens, size or no size.

But hey, what do I know? I never expected the Habs to turn their game around to that extent this year. But I don't think I'm wrong this time. There's no reason to expect that the Habs' 5-on-5 game will crater, and no reason to expect them to be the fourth-worst shooting percentage club in the NHL again. Even if they get a low-average shooting percentage like they did last year, they're going to end up a good 20 goals ahead of this year.

Hey, they might even pull a Boston and go from fourth-worst to fourth-best, which will make them look like an offensive juggernaut -- especially since Montreal was a much better possession club than Boston this year.
I might buy it, but I believe our inability to score 5vs5 is no fluke, in fact, it's been this way for years. If the roster remains the same, I expect more of the same.

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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
They're not. Well, Penner is, but that's a function of his hockey sense and, yes, his size and strength. Size and strength are tools, just like speed and puck skills and -- the most important -- hockey intelligence. Size and strength help, but they are hardly required.

Boston is actually a fantastic example of what I mean because last year, they were the Habs. People think they are an offensive juggernaut this year because they had the most 5-on-5 goals. That happened because they are a decent (not great, decent) 5-on-5 club but also, they had the 4th-best shooting percentage.

What people forget about Boston is that, last year with a very similar roster, they had the third-least 5-on-5 goals -- a mere 4 goals ahead of the last-place Habs. That didn't happen because last year they were a small club that suddenly became huge in a year. It happened because that year their 5-on-5 shooting percentage was the worst in the NHL -- pretty much equal to the Habs' this year. Even though they were also a decent-not-great 5-on-5 club that year (and arguably better than this year), they couldn't buy a goal.

They went from a popgun offense to an offensive juggernaut... not because of size or roster changes, entirely because their shooting percentage took a wild swing.

The same thing could easily happen to the Habs next year. If it does, Montreal will also be the top-scoring team in the league (especially if they maintain their perenially strong PP). Realistically, it almost certainly won't, but their shooting percentage should normally return to normal. Assuming they keep driving the play like they have this year, they should be a top-10 offensive club at even-strength.

Another note: expect Boston to have a middling offense next year. And since their defense is almost entirely dependent on Tim Thomas standing on his head, and he's not going to have historic seasons every year, it wouldn't surprise me to see Boston narrowly miss the playoffs. I expect to see them in third place in the division, being leapfrogged by both Montreal and Buffalo. All assuming no radical roster changes a la Montreal-in-2009, of course...
I can maybe buy into this. I don't see Bostons offense to be overly dominate, in fact, on paper it looks quite weak imo, but with our own team, I'm quite skeptical, because our team has lacked finish for years.

You also predicted we would run away with the division ect ect. Are you ever right? I see you boasting all these claims, but by in large you are almost always wrong, no offense, but I remember after 25 games, Gomez will get going, he's playing well, after 50 same thing, after 70 same thing. The season is over and you've moved the goal post to next year.

What if he doesn't improve, what will your defense be? Will you hang onto the position that he is one of the most unlucky players in the NHL 2 years running?

All in all, I like what you bring to the boards, and think you've bring up some interesting discussion, I just think you weigh the stats your looking at a little more than worth, seeming how you're wrong quite a bit.


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04-30-2011, 07:55 PM
  #268
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Plus minus is not a defensive stat. It's an outscoring stat. Gomez is a minus player because he has low goals for, not high goals against. And we've already been over why he has low goals for. His defense is fine, his plus minus is just another sign that he couldn't buy a goal at evens.

As a side note, what boggles my mind is that people try to make statistical arguments without even understanding the basic definition of the stats they use, and then turn around and accuse me of overvaluing stats.
If you say +/- is not a defensive stat I'll play it that way. If it is an offensive stat then the leagues top scorers should be at the top of +/-. In fact there are only 2 players in the top 10 of +/- that have demonstrably more points that Gomez. Backes and D. Sedin. This is a bit unfair because it's mostly D near the top, but if you delve further you notice that most of the higher racked C score between 30-50 point....just like Mr Gomez. As a no 1 centre Gomez is either most likely to be defended against as opposed to him being out against a top scoring line. Therefore his defence is not fine. If this stat even changes to even we probably win 5 more games.

Player that are good defensively or even fine defensively usually have decent +/- . A committed player who is not contributing offensively knows that its imperative to play well defensively. By my calculations he was on the ice for 30 % of the habs even strength goals against, and I'm willing to bet he was on the ice for at least 40 % of the shorthanded goals against.

Stats do not tell everything but they are certainly a smoking gun. Yes his stats are askew because he didn't contribute offensively, but if he's an even +/- player the habs win at least 3-4 more games.

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04-30-2011, 08:20 PM
  #269
Whitesnake
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If the rumor of Ramo signing another season in the KHL is true, it's a big blow, I believe. Not only can I envision him doing a much better job than Auld but also, he might be our best bargaining chip we have for other moves. Mind you, either it's a sign of us not having a whole lot, or could be that no matter what league you're playing, if you post great stats, you will get noticed....but Ramo to me is on top of the list of players we "could" trade and get something fine for him.

Him signing in the KHL is not good news. Gauthier needs to get him here next year. So here's a signing he needs to do.

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04-30-2011, 08:23 PM
  #270
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Quote:
Originally Posted by habfaninvictoria View Post
If you say +/- is not a defensive stat I'll play it that way. If it is an offensive stat then the leagues top scorers should be at the top of +/-. In fact there are only 2 players in the top 10 of +/- that have demonstrably more points that Gomez. Backes and D. Sedin. This is a bit unfair because it's mostly D near the top, but if you delve further you notice that most of the higher racked C score between 30-50 point....just like Mr Gomez. As a no 1 centre Gomez is either most likely to be defended against as opposed to him being out against a top scoring line. Therefore his defence is not fine. If this stat even changes to even we probably win 5 more games.

Player that are good defensively or even fine defensively usually have decent +/- . A committed player who is not contributing offensively knows that its imperative to play well defensively. By my calculations he was on the ice for 30 % of the habs even strength goals against, and I'm willing to bet he was on the ice for at least 40 % of the shorthanded goals against.


Stats do not tell everything but they are certainly a smoking gun. Yes his stats are askew because he didn't contribute offensively, but if he's an even +/- player the habs win at least 3-4 more games.
Your missing the point, +/-, which should be blatantly obivious to anyone who has considered what the stat means, is a measurement of how much a player either outscores or is outscored by. It can neither be an offensive stat or a defensive stat, by definition it is a combination of the two. A good defensive player with no offense will have a bad +/-. A bad defensive player whose brilliant offensively will have a good +/-. Its the most fundamental part of hockey, the only reason its not the be-all stat to measure hockey players is that it depends so much a player's usage including linemates and opponents and starting point. For example, one of the best defensive players in the world (Nick Lidstrom) was a negative this year due to facing some of the heaviest opposition in the league at even strength.

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04-30-2011, 08:29 PM
  #271
MathMan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
I might buy it, but I believe our inability to score 5vs5 is no fluke, in fact, it's been this way for years. If the roster remains the same, I expect more of the same.
The way they failed to score this year (controlling the play, creating chances, but not getting goals) is fundamentally different from the way they didn't score in previous years (getting dominated in puck possession, and creating few chances). It's a huge difference and it's unfortunate that they got unlucky in shooting at the same time.

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04-30-2011, 08:31 PM
  #272
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I think the Habs should focus on getting a forward who fits these criteria:
1. Not small
2. Not slow
3. good two-way player
4. can play on a top line if needed

Here's my short list:
Brooks Laich, 27 -- current salary 2.067m, will make between 4-4.5
Joel Ward, 29 -- current salary 1.5M, will make between 2.5-3.5
Curtis Glencross, 27 -- '' " 1.2M, " " " 2.2-3.2
Eric Cole, 31 -- " " 2.9M, " " " 4-4.5


There are other players that i like such as Ryan Jones, Mike Knuble, etc., but these first four guys are my favorites.

I'd like to keep AK, Gorges, Markov, Weber, Wiz and Gill, and let go of Pouliot, Hamrlik, Sopel, Mara, Picard, Halpern.

Between Pyatt, Desharnais, Darche and White, maybe a couple will get squeezed out if everybody enters the season healthy.

I could picture something like this:

Cammy-Plex-AK
Maxpac-Gomez-Gionta
Moen-Eller-J. Ward
White-Desharnais-Darche
Pyatt

Markov-Spacek
Subban-Wizniewski
Gorges-Gill
Weber

Price
?

I'd prefer Spacek not being on the team but it's a hard contract to get rid of. If he has to be in the lineup, I'd rather see him with the best guy, to hide him in a sense. By not being exposed on the PP or PK, he'll only play like 17-18 mins a game. I'd have Gorges and Gill matched up against the other team's top line each game, another way to hide Spacek or Weber if he ever replaces him. Markov will get his minutes by playing a lot of special teams minutes.

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Old
04-30-2011, 08:38 PM
  #273
MathMan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by habfaninvictoria View Post
If you say +/- is not a defensive stat I'll play it that way. If it is an offensive stat then the leagues top scorers should be at the top of +/-.
Sigh.

I did write that plus/minus is an outscoring stat. It's a measure that is BOTH offensive and defensive and is only affected by even-strength scoring and by shorthanded goals. Power play never factors in.

Heck, it says so right in the name. Plus. Minus.

It simply isn't the case that if a stat is not defensive then it is offensive, and vice-versa.

Here, I'll spell it out: Gomez was on the ice for 50 non-PP goals against. Plekanec for 46. I think we can agree that this is not a staggeringly large difference. The reason Gomez is a big minus is that he was on the ice for only 35 non-PP goals for while Plekanec was on for 54. End result: Gomez is -15, Plekanec is +8. But the main part of the difference is offensive, not defensive.


Last edited by MathMan: 04-30-2011 at 08:44 PM.
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Old
04-30-2011, 08:40 PM
  #274
xposbrad
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Would love to see Halpern resignd. Put up some decent points, one of our best PKers, great at faceoffs, and always skating.

I like Mara too as 7th dman..

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Old
04-30-2011, 08:51 PM
  #275
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre Jr View Post
I think the Habs should focus on getting a forward who fits these criteria:
1. Not small
2. Not slow
3. good two-way player
4. can play on a top line if needed

Here's my short list:
Brooks Laich, 27 -- current salary 2.067m, will make between 4-4.5
Joel Ward, 29 -- current salary 1.5M, will make between 2.5-3.5
Curtis Glencross, 27 -- '' " 1.2M, " " " 2.2-3.2
Eric Cole, 31 -- " " 2.9M, " " " 4-4.5


There are other players that i like such as Ryan Jones, Mike Knuble, etc., but these first four guys are my favorites.

I'd like to keep AK, Gorges, Markov, Weber, Wiz and Gill, and let go of Pouliot, Hamrlik, Sopel, Mara, Picard, Halpern.

Between Pyatt, Desharnais, Darche and White, maybe a couple will get squeezed out if everybody enters the season healthy.

I could picture something like this:

Cammy-Plex-AK
Maxpac-Gomez-Gionta
Moen-Eller-J. Ward
White-Desharnais-Darche
Pyatt

Markov-Spacek
Subban-Wizniewski
Gorges-Gill
Weber

Price
?

I'd prefer Spacek not being on the team but it's a hard contract to get rid of. If he has to be in the lineup, I'd rather see him with the best guy, to hide him in a sense. By not being exposed on the PP or PK, he'll only play like 17-18 mins a game. I'd have Gorges and Gill matched up against the other team's top line each game, another way to hide Spacek or Weber if he ever replaces him. Markov will get his minutes by playing a lot of special teams minutes.
Laich and Cole would be great, but I don't think the Habs would get them for reasonable money. As some of the best top 6 forwards availible they tend to make bank if they hit open market. Glencross would be great, I've seen him a lot in both Edmonton and Calgary. He plays an energy player's style but is so effective at it that he's mediocre 2nd line/excellent third line quality. Jones however, despite good numbers this year is a bad hockey player who I doubt woud even make the Habs' third line, possibly not even the healthy roster.

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