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Jack Johnson for Luke Schenn

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Old
05-03-2011, 09:51 PM
  #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nex06 View Post
Yes he is, but so were you when you wrote this:


He would have needed 22 more ES goals which would have put him on 7th spot amongst all skaters in the league. Let's be serious.

That being said, I don't do this deal. I don't think Schenn is better at all and JJ showed that he wants to play for the Kings. I don't see any arguments for the trade at all.
He'd be pretty damn close. He is on the ice for an incredible amount of goals and he's practically never on the ice for even strength goals. With any luck that balance outs both ways. Even Jack's haters will admit that he is one of the most unlucky players in the league.

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05-03-2011, 10:16 PM
  #52
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He'd be pretty damn close. He is on the ice for an incredible amount of goals and he's practically never on the ice for even strength goals. With any luck that balance outs both ways. Even Jack's haters will admit that he is one of the most unlucky players in the league.
I'd like to know exactly who Jack Johnson is on the ice with when he is on the ice for a goals against. It seems that most of the lines he is usually out there with are drawing defensive assignments and not necessarily generating many scoring opportunities. It also doesn't help that most of Johnson's points have come with the man-advantage.

What also stood out from watching Johnson and Doughty this season is that Doughty seemed to be more prone to making glaring individual mistakes, more so than Johnson, yet he had a significantly better +/-.

I know most focus on the individual stats but I would think that a +/- isn't the best indicator when there are four other skaters on the ice who are also out there that can be held responsible for a goal against.

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05-03-2011, 10:24 PM
  #53
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I'd love to have Schenn. He'd be a great replacement for Mitchell long-term and just round out our top six so well. But not for JJ.

JMFJ is an improvement in his defensive game away from being arguably the best defender we have (yes, even above Doughty).

This is no slight to Schenn, but a lot of his game can be taught. You can't teach the skills JMFJ has and if he continues to round into shape, he could be the next Chris Pronger. That's his upside. Schenn's upside is great as well, but that of a say Rod Langway (for lack of a better comparible). I'd like to have both, but if I have to pick I go with the potential Pronger any day.

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05-03-2011, 10:35 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by Ziggy Stardust View Post
I'd like to know exactly who Jack Johnson is on the ice with when he is on the ice for a goals against. It seems that most of the lines he is usually out there with are drawing defensive assignments and not necessarily generating many scoring opportunities. It also doesn't help that most of Johnson's points have come with the man-advantage.

What also stood out from watching Johnson and Doughty this season is that Doughty seemed to be more prone to making glaring individual mistakes, more so than Johnson, yet he had a significantly better +/-.

I know most focus on the individual stats but I would think that a +/- isn't the best indicator when there are four other skaters on the ice who are also out there that can be held responsible for a goal against.
Oh I'm sure Drew was responsible for more goals against than Jack was. Drew just has a knack for scoring ES. That's what we need Jack to do. The difference between the two this year was nill. We do know that Jack is amongst the very bottom for TOI to team goal scored ratio. I know for a fact that has nothing to do with Jack's offensive ability. Last year I kept a log of forward lines on the ice during a plus or minus. I started that this year but Jack was doing so good I didn't think it was helpfull to continue.

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05-03-2011, 10:44 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by kingsfan View Post
I'd love to have Schenn. He'd be a great replacement for Mitchell long-term and just round out our top six so well. But not for JJ.

JMFJ is an improvement in his defensive game away from being arguably the best defender we have (yes, even above Doughty).

This is no slight to Schenn, but a lot of his game can be taught. You can't teach the skills JMFJ has and if he continues to round into shape, he could be the next Chris Pronger. That's his upside. Schenn's upside is great as well, but that of a say Rod Langway (for lack of a better comparible). I'd like to have both, but if I have to pick I go with the potential Pronger any day.
I don't think JJ comes close to being compared to Pronger. JJ himself compares his game to that of Chelios and that's what I see. JJ's not even close to being physical or nasty enough to be compared to Pronger.

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05-03-2011, 11:04 PM
  #56
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I'm sorry, but Doughty during the second half was much better than Jack during the first. The only reason JJ seems to be as good is because teams this year know he isn't so they ride/study DD much more.

That said, I'm looking into the possibility that what is lacking from JJ defensively is mainly communication with forwards. Think that might be true at all?

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05-03-2011, 11:41 PM
  #57
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Although Johnson finished the playoffs as a -2 and Doughty broke even at 0, Doughty was a -3 in LA's monumental collapse in Game 3, Johnson was a +1. Doughty may have had the better second half, but it is difficult to dispute the number of obvious brain farts Doughty has on the ice. It is bound to happen with young defensemen, doesn't take away from them being highly talented and it doesn't mean they can't fix those mental errors.

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05-03-2011, 11:46 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by kingsfan View Post
You can't teach the skills JMFJ has and if he continues to round into shape, he could be the next Chris Pronger. .
So JJ could be the next no-good cheap-shotting ****** who ****** and ****** while being a total ******* ******* *******?


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05-04-2011, 12:44 AM
  #59
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Originally Posted by SMoneyMonkey View Post
The only reason JJ seems to be as good is because teams this year know he isn't so they ride/study DD much more.
?
Sigh. I get very annoyed when people have no idea what they are talking about yet they state their opinion as fact. Unless you are in team meetings you really need to just not post. On the contrary Fox and Miller said many times that opposing teams game plan Jack and Drew. Kesler said during an intermission interview that you can't give JJ an inch or he'll make you look foolish.

Too many bi polar personalities around here who are ready to fall on the sword for Jack at one point and then a month later are ready to crucify him. Same goes for Quick, Brown, etc.

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05-04-2011, 01:18 AM
  #60
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Oh I'm sure Drew was responsible for more goals against than Jack was. Drew just has a knack for scoring ES. That's what we need Jack to do. The difference between the two this year was nill. We do know that Jack is amongst the very bottom for TOI to team goal scored ratio. I know for a fact that has nothing to do with Jack's offensive ability. Last year I kept a log of forward lines on the ice during a plus or minus. I started that this year but Jack was doing so good I didn't think it was helpfull to continue.
Was he? Is that an opinion or a fact? Here are first 100 ES goals for/against.

Goals for (first column is player number):
Code:
14	23
3	21
7	21
94	21
11	18
23	18
28	17
8	15
44	11
33	10
Goals against:
Code:
3	24
14	18
15	16
44	16
7	13
11	13
13	13
94	12
26	11
2	9
Top +/-
Code:
23	9
94	9
7	8
28	8
8	7
11	5
14	5
Worst +/-
Code:
13	-12
15	-9
31	-7
6	-6
19	-6
44	-5
22	-4
3	-3
26	-3

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05-04-2011, 02:51 AM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy Stardust View Post
Although Johnson finished the playoffs as a -2 and Doughty broke even at 0, Doughty was a -3 in LA's monumental collapse in Game 3, Johnson was a +1. Doughty may have had the better second half, but it is difficult to dispute the number of obvious brain farts Doughty has on the ice. It is bound to happen with young defensemen, doesn't take away from them being highly talented and it doesn't mean they can't fix those mental errors.
Doughty obviously has bad games as well. Lidstrom... well not Lidstrom... Pronger has bad games, too

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Originally Posted by no name View Post
Sigh. I get very annoyed when people have no idea what they are talking about yet they state their opinion as fact. Unless you are in team meetings you really need to just not post. On the contrary Fox and Miller said many times that opposing teams game plan Jack and Drew. Kesler said during an intermission interview that you can't give JJ an inch or he'll make you look foolish.

Too many bi polar personalities around here who are ready to fall on the sword for Jack at one point and then a month later are ready to crucify him. Same goes for Quick, Brown, etc.
Eh, I think Jack is a great offensive talent, I'm just not ready to completely ignore his defensive faults because he scores points. And I don't see how either of your quotes imply they don't go after Drew more (which is what I said, I didn't say they ignore JJ).

I know you get very defensive of JJ but, you're naive if you think his consistently horrible +/- is just because of bad luck.

As for bi-polarism, I don't know that anybody has been ready to fall on a sword for Brown in a very long time. And as far as JJ is concerned, people keep getting their hopes up whenever he strings together a few defensively sound games, thinking he's finally figured it out, hardly bi-polarism.

People are only bi-polar about Quick because we also have Bernier.

Anyways, I've made it my off season mission to figure out what is wrong with Jack! Wish me luck

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05-04-2011, 03:16 AM
  #62
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Anyway following your opinion that it's others' fault (+luck) that JJ had such bad +/-, I looked into this first third of the season a bit further. I am not trying to discredit anyone, I just want us to have good solid facts.

What I did was this:
- I took all ES goals for and against and checked who was on ice at that time with a particular player.
- For each of player's teammates I checked how much would this teammate's +/- be different if he had never played with the player.

Example: With Jack Johnson & Dustin Brown on the ice team scored 9 ES goals. With same players on ice there were also 6 ES goals scored against. So Jack Johnson had +3 influence on Brown's +/- during first third of the season. Without JJ Brown would have had +6 instead of +9.

Jack Johnson
Code:
27	5
7	3
23	3
28	2
33	2
10	1
12	1
11	0
21	0
44	0
94	0
14	-1
19	-1
29	-1
74	-1
2	-2
5	-2
17	-2
22	-2
8	-3
26	-3
13	-5
15	-6
Total sum: -12

That Richardson guy sure does look a bad influence on JJ... so why don't we check him as well? After all, it could be that Richardson is bad for JJ?

Richardson
Code:
10	1
17	0
5	-1
6	-1
19	-1
27	-1
28	-1
29	-1
33	-1
53	-1
76	-1
81	-1
94	-1
2	-2
13	-2
22	-2
23	-2
26	-2
31	-2
40	-2
44	-2
7	-3
8	-3
11	-3
14	-3
3	-6
Sum: -44

Terrrible, isn't it? Seems like Johnson was at least to some extent victim of Richardson's bad defense?

Kopitar:
Code:
23	8
7	5
8	4
21	4
33	3
12	2
94	2
5	1
53	1
3	0
14	0
26	0
44	0
74	0
6	-1
17	-1
28	-1
40	-1
81	-1
22	-2
31	-2
2	-3
15	-3
Sum: +15

So it is possible to be positive influence for the team. But he doesn't have to play with Richardson as often as JJ... except when TM puts them on same line. So as the last player here comes Drew Doughty, who had terrible start of the season, right?

Doughty
Code:
7	7
14	5
23	5
28	5
94	5
11	4
21	4
33	3
5	1
13	-1
22	-1
27	-1
53	-1
17	-2
26	-2
3	-3
15	-3
Sum: +25

Well, what to say. BTW the more the player plays at ES, the more time he has to "influence" other teammates' +/-. If we divide by their ES TOI and average to 15 minutes per game:
Doughty: +19
Kopitar: +14
Johnson: -10
Richardson: -61

This can be interpreted as you wish. I interpret it that Richardson was terrible and that JJ wasn't good either. Nothing surprising regarding Kopitar, but Doughty was probably underrated slightly - could be because he does some good things that we just don't notice.


Last edited by Nex06: 05-04-2011 at 03:22 AM.
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Old
05-04-2011, 03:26 AM
  #63
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Originally Posted by Nex06 View Post
Anyway following your opinion that it's others' fault (+luck) that JJ had such bad +/-, I looked into this first third of the season a bit further. I am not trying to discredit anyone, I just want us to have good solid facts.

What I did was this:
- I took all ES goals for and against and checked who was on ice at that time with a particular player.
- For each of player's teammates I checked how much would this teammate's +/- be different if he had never played with the player.

Example: With Jack Johnson & Dustin Brown on the ice team scored 9 ES goals. With same players on ice there were also 6 ES goals scored against. So Jack Johnson had +3 influence on Brown's +/- during first third of the season. Without JJ Brown would have had +6 instead of +9.
Love your posts, would be thrilled if you kept stuff like this up. I've been watching replays of goals against while JJ is on the ice, haven't gotten too far yet but, would love to see Cliffords +/- influence stats(Or whatever you think to call them ).

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05-04-2011, 04:05 AM
  #64
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great post nex. well written

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05-04-2011, 04:13 AM
  #65
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Thanks. Clifford... well - ouch. The last game that I checked was just before he started getting points, just before his "streak." So he is a bit unlucky with that. Perhaps I will make whole season one day.

Clifford
Code:
53	1
5	-1
8	-1
15	-1
26	-1
33	-1
2	-2
7	-2
10	-2
12	-2
76	-2
6	-3
14	-3
17	-3
22	-3
31	-3
46	-3
3	-5
19	-5
44	-6
Sum: -48
With playing time: -80
Definitely had a tough start defensively in the league. Didn't know what to do out there.

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05-04-2011, 04:29 AM
  #66
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Wow, thanks so much for the quick reply. I don't know if JJ is just out there more with Rich and Clifford, but from what I've seen in the half season of goals against that I've watched is that JJ has really bad defensive judgement.

By this I mean, when he has to make a decision, he often makes the wrong one; when he's just playing the system, he's generally good. He's also lacking in some front of the net skill but, nothing too major.

You can pick this out when JJ fumbles the puck, in one instance he's skating down the boards with the puck in the offensive zone, fumbles the puck a bit, spins around and passes the puck to the other team's forward who is at center ice, resulting in a two on one. In another instance, Clifford goes after Jack's guy and instead of change guy, JJ just keeps going for him. Granted, this is Clifford's mistake, but whereas a D with better judgement would notice Clifford's mistake and try to rectify it, JJ just keeps doing what the system tells him.

Now, replays aren't quite as objective as stats, and just watching goals against isn't going to be enough. But from the little I've watched, this seems to be his main problem.

He also dekes while last man back (which of our Ds don't, though ), seems to have poor communication with forwards (i.e. delegating them) and isn't always the quickest at making a decision off a lost face off.

Again, small sample size and it's a replay. So I could be wrong because JJ had a flu for a few days or because I need sleep

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05-04-2011, 10:13 AM
  #67
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I don't know TOR well enough to rate Luke Schenn, but unless JJ was part of a package that landed the Kings a 40-50 goal scoring forward, it just doesn't make sense to swap one young D for another. Johnson's locked up long term and it wouldn't hurt the Kings to hang on to their young D.

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05-04-2011, 11:36 AM
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[QUOTE=Nex06;32859676]Was he? Is that an opinion or a fact? QUOTE]

Well, since I was logging the list is was my own opinion. He was a +1 and I stopped paying attention thinking he had arrived defensively. That was common opinion around here. Nobody saw him dropping 20+ negatives over the second half of the year.

I appreciate the detailed matix that you posted. That's a lot to take in but I'm enjoying the work.

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05-04-2011, 04:14 PM
  #69
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Johnson and Doughty both had some untimely turnovers, Johnson in particular went through a couple stretches (that atrocious early eastern trip springs to mind) where he couldn't catch a break and wound up in the red over and over.

Johnson still has a lot of maturing to do as a player. I think some of the people suggesting he draws a high priority in the other team's game plan would be the first to admit that. He has to let the game come to him a little more on offense, play simpler. Too many head fakes and hesitations, too many giveaways. You have to like the confidence, just needs some minor adjustments. He's an asset on the power play but he misses the net too wide and too often, really needs to get better with that. Look at the guy with real cannons like Al MacInnis, he often just sent a fluttering wrister through to create opportunities and deflections and rebounds. More of that from the Kings' point guys and more activity down low would make a big difference without any strategical tweaks to the power play.

If you coupled the approach of Martinez with the ability of Johnson, you'd have a fabulously effective player IMO.

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05-04-2011, 04:50 PM
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He found the limit to his talent. He discovered (or was finally convinced by a combination of play and conversation with coaches or Mitchell and Scuderi) that he had a lot to learn. A lot of technical experience, reads and reactions, that has been missing. He really, really missed out not playing in the minors because his athletic ability allowed him to compete and dominate WITH bad habits in the junior leagues.

Johnson started changing his entire game this year. In the first half, he played the JJ way. And things were not good. In the second half, he finally played within himself - tried to do less. Probably for the first time in his athletic career. Things are still not great, not yet. But at least he is finally developing the technical foundation for a career as a 1B.

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05-04-2011, 05:20 PM
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He found the limit to his talent. He discovered (or was finally convinced by a combination of play and conversation with coaches or Mitchell and Scuderi) that he had a lot to learn. A lot of technical experience, reads and reactions, that has been missing. He really, really missed out not playing in the minors because his athletic ability allowed him to compete and dominate WITH bad habits in the junior leagues.

Johnson started changing his entire game this year. In the first half, he played the JJ way. And things were not good. In the second half, he finally played within himself - tried to do less. Probably for the first time in his athletic career. Things are still not great, not yet. But at least he is finally developing the technical foundation for a career as a 1B.
I have to agree with this. Im a big critic of JJ, as he has all the tools to be a very good defensemen. His biggest issue was his defensive postioning, and this year he has made great strides on improving that. He is still a work in progress, and if he continues to improve upon his positioning and communication, he will be a legit 1b dman.

Would I trade him for Luke Schenn? probably not because of the contract JJ just signed, along with the fact he has the tools to be a fantastic 2 way player. Schenn has a high upside as well, but i dont think his offensive game will ever blossom into anything special. Another factor in my opinion, is if DD gets hurt, Schenn could not pick up the slack for him, while i think JJ can.

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05-04-2011, 05:42 PM
  #72
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I don't think JJ comes close to being compared to Pronger. JJ himself compares his game to that of Chelios and that's what I see. JJ's not even close to being physical or nasty enough to be compared to Pronger.
I watched them both and frankly I don't see a significant difference between Chelios and Pronger. They are both excellent at both ends of the ice, play with a serious edge and crave the physical stuff. Outside of height, Pronger and Chelios are very similar.

JMFJ is just a less edgy version at his peak, if he can reach it.

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05-04-2011, 05:45 PM
  #73
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So JJ could be the next no-good cheap-shotting ****** who ****** and ****** while being a total ******* ******* *******?

And we'd likely praise him for everyone of those *'s too

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05-04-2011, 06:09 PM
  #74
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JJ is nowhere near Pronger or Chelios, let's be honest here.

He's in the Brad Stuart, Derek Morris, Ed Jovanovski plateau.

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05-04-2011, 06:12 PM
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JJ is nowhere near Pronger or Chelios, let's be honest here.

He's in the Brad Stuart, Derek Morris, Ed Jovanovski plateau.
Lower than Pronger or Chelios (though he could reach it, just unlikely)

Higher than Brad ****ing Stuart though and that plateau...

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