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Jack Johnson for Luke Schenn

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Old
05-04-2011, 06:45 PM
  #76
Ziggy Stardust
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Originally Posted by Reaper45 View Post
JJ is nowhere near Pronger or Chelios, let's be honest here.

He's in the Brad Stuart, Derek Morris, Ed Jovanovski plateau.
Jovanovski, maybe, he is considerably better than Stuart or Morris ever have been at any point in their respective careers.

In the past two seasons, Jack has amassed 78 points in 162 games, which ranks him within the top 20 of defensemen in scoring. In that time frame, he has scored as many or more points than players like Seabrook, Letang, Gonchar, Suter, Edler, E. Johnson, and Phaneuf. Over the past two seasons he also cracks the top 20 list in overall icetime.

People rag on Johnson as if he won't get any better, which is ridiculous when you consider he is still only a 24 year old defenseman with about three and a half seasons worth of NHL experience.

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Old
05-05-2011, 01:41 AM
  #77
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Originally Posted by Reaper45 View Post
JJ is nowhere near Pronger or Chelios, let's be honest here.

He's in the Brad Stuart, Derek Morris, Ed Jovanovski plateau.
I was just comparing styles, not saying he's that player. I don't think he has the agressiveness those two (Chelios/Pronger) exhibited. You have to play like the other guy was just hitting on your sister every shift to be that nasty, and that's not JMFJ. He COULD get near them though, and he has all the skills needed to do it. He just has to put them together.

He's better than Morris or Stuart, but a younger Jovo is a decent comparision. JMFJ can go further than Jovo, who regressed after a few good/great years in Vancouver. Jovo had Norris potential at one point, and I don't see why JMFJ can't have borderline Norris potential as well.


Last edited by kingsfan: 05-05-2011 at 01:53 AM.
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Old
05-05-2011, 01:52 AM
  #78
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Originally Posted by Ziggy Stardust View Post
Jovanovski, maybe, he is considerably better than Stuart or Morris ever have been at any point in their respective careers.

In the past two seasons, Jack has amassed 78 points in 162 games, which ranks him within the top 20 of defensemen in scoring. In that time frame, he has scored as many or more points than players like Seabrook, Letang, Gonchar, Suter, Edler, E. Johnson, and Phaneuf. Over the past two seasons he also cracks the top 20 list in overall icetime.

People rag on Johnson as if he won't get any better, which is ridiculous when you consider he is still only a 24 year old defenseman with about three and a half seasons worth of NHL experience.
This. Chelios' first 3 seasons came before Johnson was even born but when you look at Prongers first three seasons it's not a big difference from JMFJ. Pronger had 69 points in 202 games and was a -33. In JMFJ's first three seasons, he played 195 games and had 58 points to go with a -52. Pronger was better, no argument, but it wasn't until a few seasons into his time in St. Louis that he rounded into the all-star force he is now. Next season will be a huge one for Jack but he's had two decent playoff showings. How many D-men in the NHL have 12 points in 12 career playoff games?

It was Pronger's sixth season before he reached 40 points in a season as well, and Jack just did it this year in his fourth. Let's give JMFJ some time to plateau before saying he can't reach a Pronger level.

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Old
05-09-2011, 06:07 AM
  #79
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Quote:
What I did was this:
- I took all ES goals for and against and checked who was on ice at that time with a particular player.
- For each of player's teammates I checked how much would this teammate's +/- be different if he had never played with the player.
Regarding the ES +/- contribution, I have done as promised, whole regular season. The results are presented already as ES +/- contribution per 10 minutes of ES TOI.

Since it is probably not easy to understand what the value means, I will try with an example, sort of. Value 0.97 of Kopitar means that for each 10 minutes of ES when Kopitar is out there, he contributes 0.97 of +/- to his teammates, approximately 0.25 to each one of them. In other words, if Kopitar's 15 minutes of ES TOI would be replaced by a completely neutral player, who never contributes to + OR -, the team +/- total would have been 0.25 lower in average. I hope it's clearer, but probably not. That's the bad thing about stats. Warning: only for number crunchers. However, comments about how do you think these correspond to real life are very welcome.

There might be a statistical error with players who have no played many ES minutes: Penner, Moller, Westgarth and Loktionov.

Total ES Contribution / 10min
Code:
Anze Kopitar		0.97	
Justin Williams		0.63	
Dustin Brown		0.54	
Andrei Loktionov		0.52	
Dustin Penner		0.31	
Ryan Smyth			0.14
Alexei Ponikarovsky	0.06		
Wayne Simmonds		-0.04	
Michal Handzus		-0.24	
Oscar Moller		-0.25	
Jarret Stoll			-0.34
Kyle Clifford			-0.56
Trevor Lewis		-0.62	
Brad Richardson		-0.75	
Kevin Westgarth		-0.79
Offensive ES Contribution / 10min
Code:
Anze Kopitar		2.17	
Justin Williams		2.08	
Dustin Brown		1.83	
Ryan Smyth			1.59
Dustin Penner		1.4	
Andrei Loktionov		1.39	
Jarret Stoll			1.34
Wayne Simmonds		1.32	
Brad Richardson		1.32	
Oscar Moller		1.26	
Michal Handzus		1.2	
Alexei Ponikarovsky	1.16		
Kyle Clifford			1.11
Kevin Westgarth		1.06	
Trevor Lewis		0.92
Defensive ES Contribution / 10min (lower is better)
Code:
Andrei Loktionov		-0.87	
Dustin Penner		-1.09	
Alexei Ponikarovsky	-1.1		
Anze Kopitar		-1.19	
Dustin Brown		-1.3	
Wayne Simmonds		-1.36	
Michal Handzus		-1.44	
Ryan Smyth			-1.45
Justin Williams		-1.45	
Oscar Moller		-1.51	
Trevor Lewis		-1.54	
Kyle Clifford			-1.67
Jarret Stoll			-1.68
Kevin Westgarth		-1.85	
Brad Richardson		-2.07
Trevor Lewis is an interesting case here. Just by getting him away from Richardson, he gets to -1.40.

Now D-men...

Total ES Contribution / 10min
Code:
Alec Martinez		0.55	
Drew Doughty		0.45	
Matt Greene		0	
Rob Scuderi			-0.02
Willie Mitchell		-0.07	
Davis Drewiske		-0.17	
Jack Johnson		-0.39
Offensive ES Contribution / 10min
Code:
Drew Doughty		1.91	
Alec Martinez		1.63	
Willie Mitchell		1.53	
Rob Scuderi			1.39
Jack Johnson		1.32	
Davis Drewiske		1.28	
Matt Greene		1.26
Defensive ES Contribution / 10min (lower is better)
Code:
Alec Martinez		-1.08	
Matt Greene		-1.26	
Rob Scuderi			-1.41
Davis Drewiske		-1.45	
Drew Doughty		-1.46	
Willie Mitchell		-1.6	
Jack Johnson		-1.7
Martinez is a star.



Since I have done whole league, just couple of players from other teams to compare:

Total ES Contribution / 10min
Code:
Sidney Crosby		1.2	
Daniel Sedin		1.15	
Chris Kunitz			0.97
Kevin Bieksa		0.84	
Henrik Sedin		0.81	
Toni Lydman		0.79	
Ryan Kesler			0.7
Bobby Ryan			0.66
Ryan Getzlaf		0.66	
Lubomir Visnovsky	0.6		
Teemu Selanne		0.46	
Corey Perry			0.26
Evgeni Malkin		0.11	
Saku Koivu			-0.01
Cam Fowler			-0.7
Offensive ES Contribution / 10min
Code:
Sidney Crosby		2.82	
Daniel Sedin		2.55	
Bobby Ryan			2.46
Henrik Sedin		2.38	
Ryan Getzlaf		2.38	
Lubomir Visnovsky	2.29		
Toni Lydman		2.26	
Corey Perry			2.19
Chris Kunitz			2.18
Teemu Selanne		2.09	
Kevin Bieksa		1.99	
Ryan Kesler			1.98
Evgeni Malkin		1.97	
Saku Koivu			1.81
Cam Fowler			0.95
Defensive ES Contribution / 10min (lower is better)
Code:
Kevin Bieksa		-1.15	
Chris Kunitz			-1.21
Ryan Kesler			-1.28
Daniel Sedin		-1.4	
Toni Lydman		-1.47	
Henrik Sedin		-1.57	
Sidney Crosby		-1.61	
Teemu Selanne		-1.63	
Cam Fowler			-1.66
Lubomir Visnovsky	-1.7		
Ryan Getzlaf		-1.72	
Bobby Ryan			-1.8
Saku Koivu			-1.82
Evgeni Malkin		-1.85	
Corey Perry			-1.93

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Old
05-09-2011, 07:46 AM
  #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brando View Post
I'd make that trade. To me JJ's value is higher but Luke brings alot more of those intangibles like leadership, grit and heart. Also Luke would fit so well on this team personnel wise, that might not mean alot to some but to me it's huge.




Luke Schenn is Toronto's heart their fans feel about him as we do for Kyle Clifford. They'd never trade him straight up for JJ.
Not to mention that all of the King's top D prospects in Manchester, Voynov, Hickey, Muzzin, are puck moving Offensive Defensive types.

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05-09-2011, 01:12 PM
  #81
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Nex06, never stop posting. Those are really cool results. I wonder if Martinez suffers from small sample size or if he is just that amazing.

Would love to talk to you more about how you get your numbers for all of this. Would be fun to try to figure out stats to keep track of for next season. Like this one and any others. I could probably code a quick website that does it near automatically. That way, when JJ looks bad people can just blame it on my buggy coding and not on some 'luck' factor

That said, I think JJ has the ability to become something like -1.1 defensive contribution next season. And his offensive stats will go up when the defensive side becomes more intuitive to him.

Kopitar is a stud. No wonder we couldn't get past San Jose without him

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05-09-2011, 01:26 PM
  #82
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Very interesting. The only down side is that these stats are basically just an in depth +/-. We all know how volatile the +/- stat is.

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Old
05-09-2011, 02:24 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by no name View Post
Very interesting. The only down side is that these stats are basically just an in depth +/-. We all know how volatile the +/- stat is.
Yep, agree with you wholeheartedly.

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Old
05-09-2011, 02:42 PM
  #84
Nex06
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Originally Posted by SMoneyMonkey View Post
Nex06, never stop posting. Those are really cool results. I wonder if Martinez suffers from small sample size or if he is just that amazing.
I had to triple check everything but his result really is credible. It's based on more than 800 ES minutes. Sure, it can't compete with Johnson's 1500 minutes, but still quite ok. We will see next season.

Quote:
Originally Posted by no name View Post
Very interesting. The only down side is that these stats are basically just an in depth +/-. We all know how volatile the +/- stat is.
In a way it's a +/- reversed and as such it is much much less volatile. Let me explain myself.

The normal +/- is +/- "points" of a single player, but that player could have been very unlucky, he could have been locked with someone like Richardson or some rookie tryouts.

Instead of looking at points of a single player you look at the points of whole team EXCEPT that player. In first case you can have an explanation "Player has good/bad +/- because he has played with this guy a lot." In second case you are always looking at whole team and just changing one player. Changing one man in a group of 20+ men is much less volatile than changing the whole group of one man.

Anyway, I understand it is not not for everyone. It's an interesting way to look at contribution of the player. I chose to do the whole league because I found out that my own opinion relates well to the results of these stats.

The next thing on the list is doing the same but with special teams - power play and penalty killing. I have always missed information, how efficient penalty killers are. I want to see who are the best penalty killers in the league based on actual goals scored / penalties killed.

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Old
05-10-2011, 12:03 PM
  #85
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Everyone over-romanticizes brothers playing on the same team.

I think it would be ridiculous to trade JJ for L.Schenn straight up. Especially considering how much investment the Kings have made in JJ since acquiring him. Not just in $ but in everything pretty much.

JJ is going to be a GREAT F'in defenseman once he gets a few more yrs of experience which means he'll make less of those mistakes.

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Old
05-10-2011, 11:19 PM
  #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kingurentai View Post
Everyone over-romanticizes brothers playing on the same team.

I think it would be ridiculous to trade JJ for L.Schenn straight up. Especially considering how much investment the Kings have made in JJ since acquiring him. Not just in $ but in everything pretty much.

JJ is going to be a GREAT F'in defenseman once he gets a few more yrs of experience which means he'll make less of those mistakes.
Agreed. I think he'll take a big step next year. Maybe the numbers won't jump up ofensively, they may even drop slightly, but defensively and overall, JMFJ I think will have a very good season. I expect Doughty will as well.

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