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$64.3M Upper Limit for '11-'12

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05-21-2011, 10:18 AM
  #376
RangerBoy
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Bill Daly

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NHL Dep Commish Bill Daly eying Mon. Jan. 2 for Winter Classic b/c "expect Sunday, Jan. 2 the NFL will be playing."
https://twitter.com/#!/SBJLizMullen/...29549641883648

Quote:
NHL Deputy Commish's Bill Daly: League expects leaguewide revenues may be close to $3 Billion this year
https://twitter.com/#!/SBJLizMullen/...33240398716929

Quote:
#NHL Dep Commish Bill Daly: "It appears our salary cap will be going up." Projects new cap will be $60.5M to $63.5M, up from $59.4M this yr.
https://twitter.com/#!/SBJLizMullen/...34721608790017

Quote:
Talking to #NHL Deputy Commish about this year's record revenue growth. Last year NHL revenue $2.7B, he's pedicting this season to be $2.9B+
https://twitter.com/#!/SBJLizMullen/...54594078531584

$63.5M upper limit.

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05-21-2011, 10:36 AM
  #377
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Originally Posted by RangerBoy View Post
Bill Daly

#NHL Dep Commish Bill Daly: "It appears our salary cap will be going up." Projects new cap will be $60.5M to $63.5M, up from $59.4M this yr.

$63.5M upper limit.
$22.5 million in available cap space...NICE!

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05-21-2011, 11:38 AM
  #378
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Originally Posted by jas View Post
$22.5 million in available cap space...NICE!
63.5 is the upper end of the range he gave, he suggests it could be as low as 60.5, which is quite a bit lower than the number most of us have been playing with. overall, I don't see exciting news here.

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05-21-2011, 12:00 PM
  #379
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Originally Posted by -31- View Post
63.5 is the upper end of the range he gave, he suggests it could be as low as 60.5, which is quite a bit lower than the number most of us have been playing with. overall, I don't see exciting news here.
The way I read this quote, Daly just doesn't know for certain that the NHLPA will exercise the 5 percent cap bump they are entitled to.

If the NHLPA does not exercise the 5 percent bump (and they have exercised it every year since the lockout), the salary cap will be $60.5m.

If the NHLPA does exercise the cap bump (60.5 x 1.05 = 63.525) the salary cap will be 63.5m (technically 63.525m, but I assume he was just rounding).

EDIT: $62.4m was the rumored salary cap, but that was calculated prior to playoff revenue. If playoff revenue is higher than they expected, then $63.5m seems to be a reasonable amount. For our purposes, the extra $1m is an absolutely huge boon.

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05-21-2011, 12:04 PM
  #380
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Originally Posted by azrok22 View Post
The way I read this quote, just doesn't know for certain that the NHLPA will exercise the 5 percent cap bump they are entitled to.

If the NHLPA does not exercise the 5 percent bump (and they have exercised it every year since the lockout), the salary cap will be $60.5m.

If the NHLPA does exercise the cap bump (60.5 x 1.05 = 63.525) the salary cap will be 63.5m (technically 63.525m, but I assume he was just rounding).
gotcha. though saying 60.5 to 63.5 suggests it could be any point in between.

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05-21-2011, 12:06 PM
  #381
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Most numbers I have seen are between 62 - 62.4 M. The numbers here are between 60,5 to 63,5. Mean number here would be 62.0 or slightly under most predictions, no big deal but basically confirms that cap will go up 2,5 -3million...
Now letīs see how it is spent wisely...

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05-21-2011, 12:11 PM
  #382
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Originally Posted by -31- View Post
gotcha. though saying 60.5 to 63.5 suggests it could be any point in between.
You could read it that way, but if you do, then it means Daly is either assuming the NHLPA is or is not exercising the 5% bump. At this point, he has no way of knowing which is those is true.

It seems a little "fishy" that the difference between the two numbers he cited just happens to be the exact same number as the 5% inflator, which leads me to be almost certain my interpretation is correct.

The players get 55% of hockey related revenue. For the salary cap to be 50.5m, the player's share of revenue would have to be $1,515,000,000. For the salary cap to be 53.5m, the player's share of revenue would have to be $1,605,000,000. If you ignore the inflator, that range of salary cap spread would mean that Daly is uncertain about whether $90m of the player's share of HRR is coming in (or ~$163.5m of total league revenue).

I'm positive that the NHL has a better idea of their revenue for last season at this point than an uncertainty of ~$163.5m, so my interpretation makes a lot more sense.

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05-21-2011, 12:35 PM
  #383
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63.5 would be so awesome.

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05-21-2011, 01:26 PM
  #384
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Larry Brooks mentioned the lack of bonus cushion in his column last month

Quote:
But as 2011-12 represents the final year of the CBA, the 7.5-percent bonus cushion that allows clubs to defer up to that amount in performance bonuses on entry level and over-35 contracts will disappear. According to several sources, that will be an important consideration that is expected to prompt to players to vote for the escalator.
Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/more_...#ixzz1N0nBWROO

Escrow deductions decreased during this season.

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Good news (relatively speaking), NHL and NHLPA have set 3rd quarter escrow rate @ 10%, down from. 13.5% in 2nd qtr and 17% in 1st qtr.
https://twitter.com/#!/TSNBobMcKenzi...87131387092992

Brian Lawton touched on the importance of more playoff games. He was an agent and TB GM for two years

Quote:
Game 7's mean great news for players and big market teams? Why because more games reduce escrow amount/ increase the CAP the following yr.
https://twitter.com/#!/brianlawton9/...32884015218688

The NHLPA had the $62.2M number which was in the Brooks article which is based on the union's assessment of the marketplace. Daly sees the numbers.

Dave Schoalts who has good NHL sources reported $63M last month.

The NHL gave some projections at their BOG meetings last December. Those projections have been revised.

Quote:
NHL commissioner Gary Bettman gave the governors a report at their annual meeting on Monday of what the league’s executives believe the cap will be next season, based on revenue so far in 2010-11. While Bettman did not make an official announcement, word around the annual meetings is that the cap could rise by as much as $3-million (all currency U.S.) next season to $62.4-million.

The $3-million increase is also based on the assumption the NHL players will invoke their right to bump the projected cap by 5 per cent. They have done so every year since the collective agreement was reached in 2005.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...rticle1826348/

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05-21-2011, 03:59 PM
  #385
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50.4 deals with the % to the players

The players receive 57%

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(E) For any League Year (other than the 2005-06 League Year)
for which Actual HRR is equal to or exceeds $2.7 billion,
the Players' Share shall be fifty-seven (57) percent of
Actual HRR for such League Year.
Revenue was $2.7B and will increase close to $3B

Quote:
Talking to #NHL Deputy Commish about this year's record revenue growth. Last year NHL revenue $2.7B, he's pedicting this season to be $2.9B+
https://twitter.com/#!/SBJLizMullen/...54594078531584

Quote:
NHL Deputy Commish's Bill Daly: League expects leaguewide revenues may be close to $3 Billion this year
https://twitter.com/#!/SBJLizMullen/...33240398716929

For a $63.5M upper limit,the mid-point is $52.9M. The 5% escalator is applied to the midpoint. $52.9M times 5% is $2.645M. $55.545M plus $8M equals $63.545M. Without the 5%,the upper limit is $60.9M.

James Mirtle discussed the formula for getting the midpoint

Quote:
To find that midpoint takes some minor arithmetic: Multiply the players' percentage of revenues (56.333%) by league revenues ($2.5-billion), minus what are termed "preliminary benefits" (which we'll assume remain the same as in 2006-07 at around $90-million). Divide that figure by the number of clubs in the NHL, and we have our midpoint.

(56.333 x $2.5-billion) - $90-million
30 NHL teams
http://mirtle.blogspot.com/2007/07/c...ement-how.html

The preliminary benefits changes. The NHL and NHLPA determine that number.

(57% times $3B)-Benefits/30 teams

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05-21-2011, 04:54 PM
  #386
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When will the final cap number be finalized and what is the likelihood of the players opting for the 5% bump?

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05-21-2011, 05:00 PM
  #387
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Originally Posted by wolfgaze View Post
When will the final cap number be finalized and what is the likelihood of the players opting for the 5% bump?
Have the players yet to not opt for the bump? I'm guessing the likelihood is very good.

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05-21-2011, 05:20 PM
  #388
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Next season should be interesting, with the Thrashers relocating to Winnipeg. (Is it official yet?) Wonder how that change will impact league revenue.

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05-21-2011, 05:35 PM
  #389
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Originally Posted by Boom Boom Geoffrion View Post
Next season should be interesting, with the Thrashers relocating to Winnipeg. (Is it official yet?) Wonder how that change will impact league revenue.
Wait, the Thrashers are moving to Winnipeg? Where the hell have I been? Hahaha I though the Coyotes were the ones moving there.

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05-21-2011, 05:47 PM
  #390
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Wait, the Thrashers are moving to Winnipeg? Where the hell have I been? Hahaha I though the Coyotes were the ones moving there.
Don't think it's official yet, but it'll happen real soon. Winnipeg should sell out all 41 home games, and kill it with merchandising sales their 1st season. Not sure how much a move like this can ultimately affect league revenue, or the Cap.

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05-21-2011, 05:59 PM
  #391
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Originally Posted by Boom Boom Geoffrion View Post
Don't think it's official yet, but it'll happen real soon. Winnipeg should sell out all 41 home games, and kill it with merchandising sales their 1st season. Not sure how much a move like this can ultimately affect league revenue, or the Cap.
Count me in in at least buying a shirt of theirs when they move, especially if they turn into the Jets.

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05-21-2011, 09:34 PM
  #392
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Originally Posted by Boom Boom Geoffrion View Post
Don't think it's official yet, but it'll happen real soon. Winnipeg should sell out all 41 home games, and kill it with merchandising sales their 1st season. Not sure how much a move like this can ultimately affect league revenue, or the Cap.
I see, then where will the Coyotes be playing next season?

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05-21-2011, 09:37 PM
  #393
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I see, then where will the Coyotes be playing next season?
A little place I like to call Phoenix

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05-22-2011, 04:17 AM
  #394
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Steve Simmons who reported the salary cap for 2010-11 was going up to $59M when everyone else reported $57M-$58M is reporting close to $63M for 11-12.

Quote:
Word is the NHL salary cap is going up and will be close to $63 million next season, which means more money for the Leafs to spend with almost no players of real quality available. The Leafs could have as much as $20 million to play with come July
http://www.torontosun.com/2011/05/21...thrashers-move

Add a few hundred thousand to Simmons $63M report and you have what Bill Daly said at the league conference yesterday.

If the NHL will have $3B in revenue and will start the NBC contract next season,where is the need to have another prolonged labor battle?

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05-22-2011, 04:30 AM
  #395
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Final cap number will be finalized on June 24. It's always finalized at the draft. On that Friday afternoon. The NHL and NHLPA get together to sign off on the final cap number. The players vote on the escalator earlier that week. They had half of the money deducted for escrow returned to them last season. We know the escrow deductions were lowered during the season with less money taken out of their pockets.

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05-22-2011, 10:08 AM
  #396
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I see, then where will the Coyotes be playing next season?
Glendale.

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05-22-2011, 10:21 AM
  #397
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Count me in in at least buying a shirt of theirs when they move, especially if they turn into the Jets.
I think they are becoming the Moose or something like that. lol

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05-23-2011, 02:10 PM
  #398
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I think they are becoming the Moose or something like that. lol
Then forget it.

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05-23-2011, 09:50 PM
  #399
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btw with the cap going up to $63.5 mil and the cap floor being higher than the original $39 mil cap, is the media still sticking with their 'the players caved and bettman won' reaction to the last lockout...

oh wait thats right the cba is almost up so now its the 'mean greedy players took advantage of gary bettman's goodwill' just like last time LOL

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05-24-2011, 11:21 AM
  #400
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Edit: Hmph. I did all that because I did a thread search for "summer cap" and nothing came up. Go figure. There's an analysis two pages ago. RangerBoy's numbers are more accurate because he used days in the NHL. Small request for you RangerBoy. Could you put your summer cap analysis, minus the speculation on Mitchell and Kolarik etc, on the first page?

The Summer Cap is calculated by adding the full amount of all one-way contracts and the pro-rated amount of two-way contracts, plus any qualifying offers extended.

Here's what I come up with for our current Summer Cap situation. Please note: 2-way hits are approximate based on Games Played. The reality of 2-way hits is that they are based off days on recall, not games played in. Those numbers will be ever so slightly off. Also, all cap hits include full bonuses for last year. I'm not 100% sure how they work on the summer cap, so I included the full bonuses to be on the safe side. As of yet, I know of no qualifying offers having been made.

One-way hits
Marian Gaborik $7,500,000
Chris Drury $7,050,000
Wojtek Wolski $3,800,000
Sean Avery $1,937,500
Brandon Prust $800,000
Erik Christensen $925,000
Mark Staal $3,975,000
Dan Girardi $3,325,000
Wade Redden $6,500,000
Henrik Lundqvist $6,875,000
Martin Biron $875,000
----------------------------------
Total One-way Cap Hit: $43,562,500

Two-way Hits (again, includes full bonueses)
Derek Stepan (82 games) $875,000
Mats Zuccarello (42 games) $1,400,975
Ryan McDonagh (40 games) $939,329
Michael DelZotto (47 games) $714,024
Kris Newbury (11 games) $68,750
Evgeny Grachev (8 games) $342,174
-------------------------------------
Total Two-way Cap Hit: $4,340,252

Total Summer Cap Hit: ~$47,902,752

If the cap is $62m (between Daly's projections), then the upper limit in the summer is $68,200,000. That would give us ~$20m in available space to resign all of our guys and whatever free agents we pursue. It's gonna be cutting it close if we sign Richards.


Last edited by Tawnos: 05-24-2011 at 11:36 AM.
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