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Gormley piece: Carle v. Leino?

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05-30-2011, 06:04 PM
  #51
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Originally Posted by VanSciver View Post
How can a defenseman on the ice playing over 20 minutes a game, not do things to contribute to his own plus/minus? When he has coverage or has the puck and has to move it, he has to make the play. Playing defense simply doesn't work like that. There's no such thing as being a product of the team and not him. Coaches don't put a player out there for over 20 minutes a game that cripples the team.

Is Meszaros plus/minus a product of the team and not him? How about any of the other players?
Ah, absolutely... especially the fact that the competition he faced this year was greatly reduced due to his role on the team.

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05-30-2011, 06:06 PM
  #52
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Carle wasn't exposed in the playoffs. I'll agree that his play was below his normal level, but so was Meszaros and Coburn's play. Carle was on the ice for 12 goals against in the playoffs at ES. I've watched every goal over and over on replay. Carle made a mistake in coverage or a turnover leading to a goal in 2 out of those 12 goals. Otherwise, it was a turnover or a blown coverage by another player, or a weak goal let in by the Goaltending on a routine shot.

Carle average 21:59 of icetime in the regular Season, and 23:24 of icetime in the playoffs. So how much was his role reduced? Why would the Coaching staff put a player who is supposedly weak defensively out with lesser players such as Walker and Syvret? And by the way, Meszaros and Carle were out on the ice together frequently during the playoffs.
Goalies had some nice saves on more than a few brain farts by Carle, too.

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05-30-2011, 06:09 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
+/- indicates that you're on for more goals for than you are for goals against... that's it. That, in itself, tells you nothing about a player's defensive abilities. In fact, terrible defensive players can put up extremely high +/- numbers. How? By playing on really good teams and/or being really good offensively.

Carle's +/- stems from the fact that he's been on a good team here in Philly (he was even for his career before he got here), has had an excellent partner in Pronger for a solid chunk of that time, and he creates a good bit of offense at even strength.

Guy isn't very good defensively. Now, he's a lot better than some of the guys we've had back there (Randy Jones), and he's certainly an effective offensive contributor at even strength. He is, however, very weak on puck carriers physically, and makes some baffling decisions at times.
I would disagree. +/- is definitely an indicator of a player's defensive play, especially when you were the most consistent plus player in the NHL last Season. That doesn't happen by accident. It's not be all and end all of it. But it's a strong indicator. I would also disagree that he's weak physically on puck carrers. It's the opposite in my opinion. For a smaller defenseman, he's solid in his postional play and wins his share of puck battle using leverage and a good stick. Carle's puck moving game is sometimes high risk, but he is the best puck mover on the team next to Timonen. And he has made strides in that areas since he came here.
Carle was a +17 this year in the 32 games where Pronger did not play.

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05-30-2011, 06:10 PM
  #54
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Goalies had some nice saves on more than a few brain farts by Carle, too.
Absolutely. That's the same for every defenseman and the definition of a team. But you can't blame a defenseman for getting a minus on the ice when a weak bad angle goal is let in, and should have been a routine save.

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05-30-2011, 06:13 PM
  #55
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Ah, absolutely... especially the fact that the competition he faced this year was greatly reduced due to his role on the team.
Meszaros was a 20 plus minute defenseman, so I don't know how that could be. Just so I'm not misunderstanding. Since Meszaros was supposedly on the 3rd pair, are you saying that he only played against the opposition's lesser lines?

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05-30-2011, 06:30 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by VanSciver View Post
+/- is what it is. The only facts I can give you are the numbers. Otherwise were just throwing opinions out there. Carle's +/- certainly doesn't indicate that he's poor defensively. Carle was the most consistent plus player in the NHL last Season.
Using that flawed logic Jeff Schultz was the best defensive defenseman in the NHL last year. He led the league with a +50

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05-30-2011, 06:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VanSciver View Post
Meszaros was a 20 plus minute defenseman, so I don't know how that could be. Just so I'm not misunderstanding. Since Meszaros was supposedly on the 3rd pair, are you saying that he only played against the opposition's lesser lines?
Yes.

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05-30-2011, 06:35 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by GoneFullHolmgren View Post
Using that flawed logic Jeff Schultz was the best defensive defenseman in the NHL last year. He led the league with a +50
You obviously didn't get the logic I was using. I never stated that leading the League in +/- means that a defenseman is the best defensive defenseman in the League. However Schultz +/- clearly indicates that he had a strong defensive Season.

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05-30-2011, 06:37 PM
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Originally Posted by go david krejci 430 View Post

I'm not at all a beleiver in the behindthenet stats. They're someone's made up mathematical formula. Someone has to input an opinion to fromulate those stats.

Translate that to real Hockey. What is the difference between 0.064 and 0.018 QUALCOMP. Quantify that.

Meszaros did not spend the entire Season only playing against lesser lines.

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05-30-2011, 06:41 PM
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Originally Posted by VanSciver View Post
I'm not at all a beleiver in the behindthenet stats. They're someone's made up mathematical formula. Someone has to input an opinion to fromulate those stats.

Meszaros did not spend the entire Season only playing against lesser lines.
I once thought the same thing.

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05-30-2011, 06:43 PM
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Originally Posted by VanSciver View Post
You obviously didn't get the logic I was using. I never stated that leading the League in +/- means that a defenseman is the best defensive defenseman in the League. However Schultz +/- clearly indicates that he had a strong defensive Season.
Mike Green was +39 a year ago. He sucks defensively. He was +39 because he put up 76 pts on a very good Caps team.

+/- tells you absolutely nothing about how good a player is defensively. Nothing. It's a brute force stat. GAON/60 within the context of the team the player is on, the competition he faces, and the quality of his teammates on the ice is a far more effective tool for getting at a players defensive quality.

A year ago 1-9 in +/- were on Washington and Vancouver... not because those players were good defensively, but because they were on strong teams and put up points (or were out there with guys that put up points).

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05-30-2011, 06:43 PM
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Originally Posted by go david krejci 430 View Post
I once thought the same thing.
Convince me then. I'm all ears.

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05-30-2011, 06:46 PM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VanSciver View Post
I'm not at all a beleiver in the behindthenet stats. They're someone's made up mathematical formula. Someone has to input an opinion to fromulate those stats.

Translate that to real Hockey. What is the difference between 0.064 and 0.018 QUALCOMP. Quantify that.

Meszaros did not spend the entire Season only playing against lesser lines.
Some of 'em, not all of 'em... and the methodology is clearly stated and understood.

Meszaros absolutely (along with O'Donnell) was taking the easier shifts for the majority of the year. That changed a bit when Pronger was gone, but that didn't change the reality when Pronger was around (50 games).

Meszaros was also used far more aggressively in the 2nd half of the season than he was in the first half of the season. What happened to his +/-? He was +28 prior to the All-Star Break and +2 after. In fact, he was +24 prior to January.

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05-30-2011, 06:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Mike Green was +39 a year ago. He sucks defensively. He was +39 because he put up 76 pts on a very good Caps team.

+/- tells you absolutely nothing about how good a player is defensively. Nothing. It's a brute force stat. GAON/60 within the context of the team the player is on, the competition he faces, and the quality of his teammates on the ice is a far more effective tool for getting at a players defensive quality.

A year ago 1-9 in +/- were on Washington and Vancouver... not because those players were good defensively, but because they were on strong teams and put up points (or were out there with guys that put up points).
The behindthenet stats aren't real. They're a statistics nut's made up math formula. There's more holes in those stats then swiss cheese.

Each player is different. Each player compiles his +/- in different ways. Green recorded 76 points I beleive which helped him compile a high plus figure.

+/- absolutely can be used as one indicator of a player's defensive play on the ice.

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05-30-2011, 06:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Some of 'em, not all of 'em... and the methodology is clearly stated and understood.

Meszaros absolutely (along with O'Donnell) was taking the easier shifts for the majority of the year. That changed a bit when Pronger was gone, but that didn't change the reality when Pronger was around (50 games).

Meszaros was also used far more aggressively in the 2nd half of the season than he was in the first half of the season. What happened to his +/-? He was +28 prior to the All-Star Break and +2 after. In fact, he was +24 prior to January.
Kind of a contradiction for you isn't it. It an above post you state that a player's plus minus is about how good of a team your on, and you mentioned Vancouver and Washington. Why doesn't that apply to Meszaros with the way the Flyers played in the second half?

With the way games go and with not having last change on the road, all defenseman spend time on the ice against top lines during the Season. Meszaros had more than his share of icetime against quality opponents.

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05-30-2011, 06:52 PM
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I'd read their FAQ too: http://www.behindthenethockey.com/20...uestions-about

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05-30-2011, 06:54 PM
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Carle isn't accumulating plusses because of his defensive play. He's pretty weak in his own end.

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05-30-2011, 06:55 PM
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Originally Posted by go david krejci 430 View Post
I've read it all before.

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05-30-2011, 06:55 PM
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Originally Posted by VanSciver View Post
+/- is what it is. The only facts I can give you are the numbers. Otherwise were just throwing opinions out there. Carle's +/- certainly doesn't indicate that he's poor defensively. Carle was the most consistent plus player in the NHL last Season.
Carle also led the team in giveaways with 59 and only had 33 takeaways in return in the regular season. The only player with a bigger difference was Odie.

In the playoffs he again led the team with 12 giveaways and only 3 takeaways, this time having the biggest difference on the team.

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05-30-2011, 06:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
Carle isn't accumulating plusses because of his defensive play. He's pretty weak in his own end.
He wouldn't be playing 20 plus minutes a night and be used on the PK if he was pretty weak in his own end. Carle's defensive play is solid for a puck moving defenseman.

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05-30-2011, 07:00 PM
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Originally Posted by VanSciver View Post
The behindthenet stats aren't real. They're a statistics nut's made up math formula. There's more holes in those stats then swiss cheese.
If you're talking about GA/60, that's not really made up. It's goals against when that player is on the ice, carried over a 60 minute period. Basically GAA for a player.

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Originally Posted by VanSciver View Post
Kind of a contradiction for you isn't it. It an above post you state that a player's plus minus is about how good of a team your on, and you mentioned Vancouver and Washington. Why doesn't that apply to Meszaros with the way the Flyers played in the second half?

With the way games go and with not having last change on the road, all defenseman spend time on the ice against top lines during the Season. Meszaros had more than his share of icetime against quality opponents.
That's the point though. +/- is skewed not only by team quality and scoring, but also by quality of competition. Meszaros' defensive skills didn't suddenly vanish once he was put out against tough assignments, he just gave up more goals because he was playing better competition. Therefore, using +/- to break down defensive play isn't a good strategy.

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05-30-2011, 07:00 PM
  #72
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Originally Posted by VanSciver View Post
You obviously didn't get the logic I was using. I never stated that leading the League in +/- means that a defenseman is the best defensive defenseman in the League. However Schultz +/- clearly indicates that he had a strong defensive Season.
you said this

Quote:
Originally Posted by VanSciver View Post
+/- is what it is. The only facts I can give you are the numbers. Otherwise were just throwing opinions out there. Carle's +/- certainly doesn't indicate that he's poor defensively. Carle was the most consistent plus player in the NHL last Season.
there is not one single stat or argument you can use to back up a statement like that.

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05-30-2011, 07:03 PM
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He wouldn't be playing 20 plus minutes a night and be used on the PK if he was pretty weak in his own end. Carle's defensive play is solid for a puck moving defenseman.
He was used on the PK because the next option was Danny Syvret. He was 5th on the Flyers in terms of PK TOI.

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05-30-2011, 07:05 PM
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Carle also led the team in giveaways with 59 and only had 33 takeaways in return in the regular season. The only player with a bigger difference was Odie.

In the playoffs he again led the team with 12 giveaways and only 3 takeaways, this time having the biggest difference on the team.

Defenseman who handle the puck as much as Carle does, are going to have giveways. Defenseman such as Keith, Doughty, Kaberle, Seabrook, Chara, and Yandle, who many would state are better defenseman than Carle, had more giveaways than Carle.
So the sample size is the same, in 09/10 Carle had 65 giveaways, and Pronger had 58Pretty much even. Coburn had 51 giveaways to Carle's 59 this Season. Not much difference.
As far as takeaways, Timonen led with 43. Coburn, Meszaros, and Carle were grouped together with 34,33,32. Pretty much the same.

I thought Carle had some games in the playoffs where he was careless with the puck. As I said previously, his play in the playoffs was subpar. He wasn't the only one.

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05-30-2011, 07:07 PM
  #75
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He was used on the PK because the next option was Danny Syvret. He was 5th on the Flyers in terms of PK TOI.
Yes he was, but he was still used. There was the option of not using Carle on the PK at all for the Flyers Coaching staff.

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