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Cba, Cap, And The Habs

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Old
08-23-2005, 08:06 AM
  #1
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Cba, Cap, And The Habs

The new CBA is unfolding as expected , the top players are getting thier money
ragardless of the CBA . And with these players losing a year salary , the Thornton`s of the world won`t test free agency, when they are getting 90% of thier cap , why risk an injury when the money is handed to you now?

The bottom guy will get paid ,no longer making $ 1.5 mil for 10 goals, these guys are now affordable for thier teams and these guys will carve out a nice career,
making 500-800k.

The CBA was made to eliminate that Holik dumb signing , and to stop overpaying
that second tier player like Oneil,Carter, who used to mak 3 mil for 20 goals.

Gainey has to handle the Theo contract wisely , if he inks a 5 year , 5 mil a year deal, we will have 2 players making 9 mil , or nearly 25% of our cap for the next 4 years at least . With the cap figure uncertain year after year , this may leave us tight to sign some of our better youngsters. Ottawa will feel the pinch with Hossa, Redden and Chara. Developing depth is the key , knowing when to walk away from a contract is important. You don`t wan`t to have a player making 3+ mil , not being productive, for years. This year is the try it out year , new faces ,rules, etc..
You will be seeing many changes next year with many teams , as they decide who
fits into thier cap and system, just like the NFL.

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Old
08-23-2005, 09:30 AM
  #2
Darz
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Boston's top two players make $10.7M - Thornton & Murray

New Jersey's top two make $9.5M - Brodeur & Rafalski

New York Islander's top two make $11.6M - Yashin & Satan

New York Ranger's top two make $11.1M - Jagr & Kasparaitis

Ottawa's top two will make over $10M - Alfredsson & Hossa ($6M/year for sure)

Philly's top two make $9.25M - Forsberg & Rathje

Tampa's top two will make $10.2M - Lecavalier & Richards

Toronto's top two will make $11.3M - Sundin & Belfour

Anahiem's top two will make $12.8M - Niedermayer & Fedorov

Calgary's top two will make $10.5M - Iginla & Hamrlik

Chicago's top two will make $10.75M - Khabibulin & Aucoin

Colorado's top two will make $13M - Sakic & Blake

Dallas's top two will make $11M - Guerin & Modano

Detroit's top two will make $11.4M - Lidstrom & Lang

Edmonton's top two will make $10.25M - Pronger & Peca

L.A.'s top two will make $9.5M - Demitra & Roenick

St. Louis's top two will make $13.3M - Tkachuk & Weight

Vancouver's top two will make $11.3M - Naslund & Bertuzzi


If we are paying under $10M for our top two players, that actually doesn't look too bad.

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Old
08-23-2005, 09:48 AM
  #3
plafleur10
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My Cap Formula

Quote:
Originally Posted by Darz
Boston's top two players make $10.7M - Thornton & Murray

New Jersey's top two make $9.5M - Brodeur & Rafalski

New York Islander's top two make $11.6M - Yashin & Satan

New York Ranger's top two make $11.1M - Jagr & Kasparaitis

Ottawa's top two will make over $10M - Alfredsson & Hossa ($6M/year for sure)

Philly's top two make $9.25M - Forsberg & Rathje

Tampa's top two will make $10.2M - Lecavalier & Richards

Toronto's top two will make $11.3M - Sundin & Belfour

Anahiem's top two will make $12.8M - Niedermayer & Fedorov

Calgary's top two will make $10.5M - Iginla & Hamrlik

Chicago's top two will make $10.75M - Khabibulin & Aucoin

Colorado's top two will make $13M - Sakic & Blake

Dallas's top two will make $11M - Guerin & Modano

Detroit's top two will make $11.4M - Lidstrom & Lang

Edmonton's top two will make $10.25M - Pronger & Peca

L.A.'s top two will make $9.5M - Demitra & Roenick

St. Louis's top two will make $13.3M - Tkachuk & Weight

Vancouver's top two will make $11.3M - Naslund & Bertuzzi


If we are paying under $10M for our top two players, that actually doesn't look too bad.
Excellent analysis.

I like to look at the new Cap in terms of top 3, rather than top 2, as follows.

My Cap Formula which I believe most teams will adhere to very closely:

-3 Top Guys 5 MM$ avg., total 15 MM$(Habs Theo, Saku, Kovalev, we will be slightly under. Also, in an ideal world, you would have atop gun in each of the 3 categories, Goalie, Defenseman and Forward, hence the Habs' weakness on defense)
-5-6 2nd tier guys 2 MM$-2,5 MM$ avg., total 12MM$ (Habs Souray, Bonk, Dandenault, Markov,Zednik, Rivet)
-4 younger stars/experineced jourrneymen avg. 1MM$, total 4MM$(Habs Bulis, Sundstrom, Ribeiro, Ryder)

This means around 31MM$ for 12-13 guys, the team is 23 guys, so it leaves you with around 5-6MM$ (assuming you need a little room for benefits plus one or two extra players later in the season or at the deadline) for 10-11 guys (almost half the roster), which is basically minimum salary, so guys depth in inexpensive youngsters will be VERY important...

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Old
08-23-2005, 10:01 AM
  #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darz
Boston's top two players make $10.7M - Thornton & Murray

New Jersey's top two make $9.5M - Brodeur & Rafalski

New York Islander's top two make $11.6M - Yashin & Satan

New York Ranger's top two make $11.1M - Jagr & Kasparaitis

Ottawa's top two will make over $10M - Alfredsson & Hossa ($6M/year for sure)

Philly's top two make $9.25M - Forsberg & Rathje

Tampa's top two will make $10.2M - Lecavalier & Richards

Toronto's top two will make $11.3M - Sundin & Belfour



Anahiem's top two will make $12.8M - Niedermayer & Fedorov

Calgary's top two will make $10.5M - Iginla & Hamrlik

Chicago's top two will make $10.75M - Khabibulin & Aucoin

Colorado's top two will make $13M - Sakic & Blake

Dallas's top two will make $11M - Guerin & Modano

Detroit's top two will make $11.4M - Lidstrom & Lang

Edmonton's top two will make $10.25M - Pronger & Peca

L.A.'s top two will make $9.5M - Demitra & Roenick

St. Louis's top two will make $13.3M - Tkachuk & Weight

Vancouver's top two will make $11.3M - Naslund & Bertuzzi


If we are paying under $10M for our top two players, that actually doesn't look too bad.
we would be the only team with 2 contracts 4 and 5 years. It`s not so much the money, its flexibility. If Theo plays poorly , his contract becomes an obstacle to move. If he signs 12 over 2 , we are off the hook in 2 years if things don`t work out. If the cap drops 5 mil next year due to revenue, it is worse. Ottawa with Hossa signed will have to move one of thier dmen , sometime this year . I don`t want to lose our kids if they turn into stars because we have millions left on questionable contracts not producing. Some of these GM`S have lost thier mind
this off season , Khabilbulin 5 years, Modano 5 years , these will be waiting to be bought after year 3. Kovalev is ok maybe one year too many but he is a top talent .

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08-23-2005, 12:03 PM
  #5
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It boils down to two different scenarios with Theo.
-The first, which you obviously want, is to only sign Theo for a year or two for ~6mil per
-The second is to sign him up long term for ~5.5mil per

The first scenario only works out well for us if Theo bombs. Then we can ditch him or sign him for less money after 2 years. If you sign him under scenario 1 and he excels, then he can be a UFA and will be asking for closer to $7 mil three years down the road. You also run the risk of losing him for nothing.

The second scenario works well if he does well. If Theo blossoms and is one of the goaltending elite, all of the sudden 5mil is a bargain three years down the road.

Personally, I think it's a no brainer. By signing him to a year or two the only way you come out on top is if he craps the bed. This is a bad way of thinking for a GM. You aren't going to win Cups by playing it conservatively and hoping you're players do poorly. Right now we have the opportunity to lock up a player with franchise potential for what will be relatively little money down the road.

To win in the "new" NHL, you gotta take risks. Hedging your bets will ensure mediocrity for years to come.

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Old
08-23-2005, 06:42 PM
  #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Habber
It boils down to two different scenarios with Theo.
-The first, which you obviously want, is to only sign Theo for a year or two for ~6mil per
-The second is to sign him up long term for ~5.5mil per

The first scenario only works out well for us if Theo bombs. Then we can ditch him or sign him for less money after 2 years. If you sign him under scenario 1 and he excels, then he can be a UFA and will be asking for closer to $7 mil three years down the road. You also run the risk of losing him for nothing.

The second scenario works well if he does well. If Theo blossoms and is one of the goaltending elite, all of the sudden 5mil is a bargain three years down the road.

Personally, I think it's a no brainer. By signing him to a year or two the only way you come out on top is if he craps the bed. This is a bad way of thinking for a GM. You aren't going to win Cups by playing it conservatively and hoping you're players do poorly. Right now we have the opportunity to lock up a player with franchise potential for what will be relatively little money down the road.

To win in the "new" NHL, you gotta take risks. Hedging your bets will ensure mediocrity for years to come.
You can`t risk it in this CBA, years ago you make a mistake , pay someone and buy time, now have a 5+ mil mistake on your team not producing , you lose flexibility.The NFL has no gurantee contracts, NBA has Bird rights , mid level exemptions, you could go overboard to keep players, this is a fixed cap

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