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is the Stafford deal the Kosty deal ?

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Old
06-06-2011, 10:58 AM
  #26
macavoy
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Originally Posted by FrankMTL View Post
I'm torn in regards to AK. Yes he can score goals, and he does hit..but half the time he's on another planet and looks lost out there. One of the most frustrating players to watch. I wouldn't pay him 4 million, but thats just me. With what he gives, I would give him another year or two at the same salary. I wouldn't give him over two years though, and I would prefer he only signs a one year deal.
Signing him to a 1 year deal is horrible asset management. You basically are saying, please walk away next year for nothing.

The reality is he's an asset at $3.25-4m on the market. We should be trying to sign him to a 3-4 yr deal. Look at what teams gave up for Penner.

Penner has had 4 45 point seasons and 1 60 point season. AK has had a 30 point season, 2 40 point seasons and a 50 point season.

Penner is marginally better but he has suffered from the same "lazy" / disappearing problems that AK has. Signing him to a 1 year contract and letting him walk is just dumb when you can sign him to a long term deal and if he doesn't progress, then you can trade him for approximately last years from round pick and a second round pick.

People keep complaining that we let our assets walk away but then they post they can't get rid of them fast enough when they are here.

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06-06-2011, 11:01 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by macavoy View Post
Signing him to a 1 year deal is horrible asset management. You basically are saying, please walk away next year for nothing.

The reality is he's an asset at $3.25-4m on the market. We should be trying to sign him to a 3-4 yr deal. Look at what teams gave up for Penner.

Penner has had 4 45 point seasons and 1 60 point season. AK has had a 30 point season, 2 40 point seasons and a 50 point season.

Penner is marginally better but he has suffered from the same "lazy" / disappearing problems that AK has. Signing him to a 1 year contract and letting him walk is just dumb when you can sign him to a long term deal and if he doesn't progress, then you can trade him for approximately last years from round pick and a second round pick.


People keep complaining that we let our assets walk away but then they post they can't get rid of them fast enough when they are here.
Fine, sign him to a 3-4 year contract, and then when he's ****, you can complain about having him tie up 4 million a year on our salaray cap and that he's untradable. I agree, the Habs have done a crap job with some of their younger players, but at least they were cheap and they could have resigned them to decent contracts. You make a mistake on AK, and it's gonna cost you 16 million over four years.

Montreal is never gonna be in the position Edmonton was in (hopefully) in which they are not pressured to trade somebody and will just wait for a decent offer.
Also, nobody is saying Montreal should let him walk for nothing, who says they can't sign him at the end of next year if he has a good year? AK doesn't seem like the type of guy that will just run away to another team for more money. He seems kinda like Markov, in that he's shy and like's to stay in the same place when he's comfortable.

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06-06-2011, 11:17 AM
  #28
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10% of what he is making now is the qualifying offer.

So 3.25 + (3.25 * 0.10) = 3,575.

Give him $3.6M. That's it, that's all. And he is evenly priced.

I would also sign him for one year only as I think his salary can be spread after that to sign Eller and other low 6 players that will be up for new contracts.
I don't think that's correct. Per capgeek we don't need to offer him a raise on the qualifying offer:

Because his base salary of $3,250,000 is greater than or equal to $1,000,000, it does not receive an increase for the purposes of his qualifying offer.


I don't see him getting a penny more than his qualifying offer.

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06-06-2011, 11:41 AM
  #29
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Originally Posted by macavoy View Post
Signing him to a 1 year deal is horrible asset management. You basically are saying, please walk away next year for nothing.

The reality is he's an asset at $3.25-4m on the market. We should be trying to sign him to a 3-4 yr deal. Look at what teams gave up for Penner.

Penner has had 4 45 point seasons and 1 60 point season. AK has had a 30 point season, 2 40 point seasons and a 50 point season.

Penner is marginally better but he has suffered from the same "lazy" / disappearing problems that AK has. Signing him to a 1 year contract and letting him walk is just dumb when you can sign him to a long term deal and if he doesn't progress, then you can trade him for approximately last years from round pick and a second round pick.

People keep complaining that we let our assets walk away but then they post they can't get rid of them fast enough when they are here.
Problem is 90% of the posters here don't see AK46 as an asset, which is a real shame.

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06-06-2011, 12:31 PM
  #30
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I love both players but I'd take Stafford @ 4 mil over AK @ 3 mil even though I love AK. Stafford can be a game breaker. He's actually more inconsistent than Andrei though so maybe I wouldn't. You know 21 of his goals were in 7 games right? He had 7 hat tricks as I recall. (Might have been less but still...)
He had 4.

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06-06-2011, 01:18 PM
  #31
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I am currently split 50/50 over the following two options:

a) Give him the following QO: $3.25M/1yr
b) Let him walk / trade him for whatever draft pick he would command

I sure wouldn't be offering a long-term deal. Choosing between the two options would come down to how our payroll is shaping up after we get our defense all signed, and a serious evaluation of the UFA market as it evolves over the next couple of weeks. It really doesn't matter to me what AK's status is after the 1-year. I'm already prepared to lose him for nothing now, if it comes to that. The modern market doesn't make that a particularly troublesome issue.

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06-06-2011, 01:21 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by Blind Gardien View Post
I am currently split 50/50 over the following two options:

a) Give him the following QO: $3.25M/1yr
b) Let him walk / trade him for whatever draft pick he would command

I sure wouldn't be offering a long-term deal. Choosing between the two options would come down to how our payroll is shaping up after we get our defense all signed, and a serious evaluation of the UFA market as it evolves over the next couple of weeks. It really doesn't matter to me what AK's status is after the 1-year. I'm already prepared to lose him for nothing now, if it comes to that. The modern market doesn't make that a particularly troublesome issue.
I'm with you on this.

If there was more to choose from on the UFA market i'd be leaning heavily towards "B". However its unlikely that we could sign a UFA @ $3.25 and he will give us more than AK will likely give us next season.

At this point i think the best option is to just give him the qualifying offer. Like you i'm fully prepared to let him walk next season if it comes down to that.

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06-06-2011, 01:22 PM
  #33
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3 years 11.25. Get it done PG, no more of this 1 yr deal crap and letting our home grown talent walk for nothing.

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06-06-2011, 01:40 PM
  #34
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3 years 11.25. Get it done PG, no more of this 1 yr deal crap and letting our home grown talent walk for nothing.
Kostitsyn is precisely the type of player you shouldn't care about losing. He's a plug, nothing more.

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06-06-2011, 01:40 PM
  #35
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I think the only way is to elect salary arbitration and even then I THINK he can only go down by 15%.
15% less from $3.25M is probably a big hometown discount, if arbitration-free.

But he'd likely get $3.6M if we can't sign Brooks Laich.

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06-06-2011, 01:51 PM
  #36
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He had 4.
My bad, for some reason I thought he had at least 6.

Either way that's 12 of his goals in 4 games, plus he may have even scored a 4 goal game in one of those, I'd have to check

Point is he seems to score in bursts more than every 2nd game.

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06-06-2011, 01:54 PM
  #37
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Kostitsyn is precisely the type of player you shouldn't care about losing. He's a plug, nothing more.
In a lot of teams cases you're right. In our teams case I disagree.

For one he brings size and he hits, two things we need more of.

For two he still has some potential imo, I don't think we've seen the best of Andrei just yet.

Firstly he's European (often times they take longer to develop in NA) and secondly he's been on and off injured pretty much his entire career here.

I'd at least want to see what he can do in a full season. Also remember we've had less than favorable offensive depth since he's been with us so he's been moved around a lot, even at times when it wasn't deserved like this past season.

I really don't want to give up on this guy because I could see him being a star elsewhere. (Not superstar like people thought he would be originally but a star no less)

If he's a plug please give a list of players who will easily replace him at the same salary or similar, and who are available. Because for all intents and purposes that's what a plug is, a person who can and will be easily replaced. I don't see an easy replacement at his salary with all his tools. Hate to break it to you also but Laich @ 5 million doesn't count.

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06-06-2011, 04:03 PM
  #38
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I'm with you on this.

If there was more to choose from on the UFA market i'd be leaning heavily towards "B". However its unlikely that we could sign a UFA @ $3.25 and he will give us more than AK will likely give us next season.

At this point i think the best option is to just give him the qualifying offer. Like you i'm fully prepared to let him walk next season if it comes down to that.
The minimal QO is probably the safe default. Some other teams will drop or buy out players who aren't on the UFA list right now too, maybe some other players like AK, who are on that borderline between being worth the money they get and not being worth it. And there are a variety of players on the "leftovers" UFA heap who end up being nice bargains too. But it's hit or miss whether you get that guy or not, whether you get a Samsonov instead. It's kind of playing it safe to just stick with the "known" in AK, at the known pricetag, and there's sense in playing it safe.

I wonder what AK is thinking about it all. If I was him, I wouldn't be too happy with the "whipping boy" treatment he sometimes gets from Martin. I'd be curious about testing the market. Playing in Montreal, living through the Darkest Day, all that, stories from my brother about playing somewhere else... etc. Asking for the moon on a contract would be a good way to do that, if I was going to be proactive about my future and not just leave it all in the agent's hands. I dunno if AK is a very proactive kind of person, though.

Anyway, the bottom line to it all is I'm just not worried either way about AK. If he's re-signed "meh", he is a decent player and can help. But there are plenty of decent players out there who could help if he isn't. I'd be rather indifferent about it from the Hab's pov (or my own pov as a Habs fan). From AK's pov, I'd be poking a big stick at that indifference, and it would probably get me cut loose.

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06-06-2011, 06:57 PM
  #39
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i sure hope not!
first a 4 year deal is to long for akost!!

second 4mill is too much!!

maybe sign him 2 years max 3, but not for more than 3.5mil i hope!

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06-06-2011, 06:59 PM
  #40
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i sure hope not!
first a 4 year deal is to long for akost!!

second 4mill is too much!!

maybe sign him 2 years max 3, but not for more than 3.5mil i hope!



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06-06-2011, 07:45 PM
  #41
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Anyway, the bottom line to it all is I'm just not worried either way about AK. But there are plenty of decent players out there who could help if he isn't. I'd be rather indifferent about it from the Hab's pov (or my own pov as a Habs fan). From AK's pov, I'd be poking a big stick at that indifference, and it would probably get me cut loose.
I don't think he's that easily replaceable. Can you name me 15 UFA's that can put up 20 goals and 20 assists this summer? What about next summer?

The reality is these underwhelming players are also not overly available. The two most sought after UFA's this summer will be Richards and Laich.

The reality is if AK was a UFA this summer, after the superstar Richards, he'd be in the top 5 forward in demand along with

Leino
Laich
Tanguay
Cole

He'd probably be near the bottom of that list but he's also got the most upside of those 5 guys.

The reality is, he's alot more valuable than you guys realize.

The 2012 crop is equally as bleak imo.

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06-06-2011, 08:33 PM
  #42
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We're never going to win the cup with AK on one of our first two lines. Get him cheap or trade him.

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06-06-2011, 08:38 PM
  #43
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We're never going to win the cup with AK on one of our first two lines. Get him cheap or trade him.
Are you saying if Scott Gomez and Jaroslav Spacek were kidnapped by Aliens and we replaced Gomez with Richards, signed Wiz & Markov.

That we would lose because we have AK? AK is actually one of the players who produces at his value on this team.

AK produces like a $3.25m player, Gomez, Cammy, Gio all underperform for what their salaries are. Hell Markov has been a bigger hindrance on this team the past 2 years than AK has been.

AK isn't paid to be a top line player. He produces equally or better than most 2nd line players in the league.

AK isn't what is preventing us from winning up a Cup.

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06-06-2011, 11:43 PM
  #44
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I don't think he's that easily replaceable. Can you name me 15 UFA's that can put up 20 goals and 20 assists this summer? What about next summer?
Gagne, Sturm, Frolov could have, Stillman, Ponikarovsky, Cole, Miettinen, Brunette, Jokinen, Tanguay, even Dupuis, Leino, possibly Bergenheim, Selanne, Ryder, Vrbata, Langenbrunner, maybe Upshall, Ward, and a bunch of nominal centers too... Connolly, Arnott, Fleischmann if he was healthy, Larose practically, Kopecky....

Not all of them have or will, but they can get in the same wheelhouse, it's clearly hit or miss, that's the whole point behind the "safety" aspect I was talking about with Kostitsyn. There are tons of players who would be worth a try if it came to replacing him, and some players who bring more dimensions or consistency too, such that a 15-15 season from one of them might be as good as a 20-20 season from AK.

Just a whole lot of options. He's easily replaceable IMHO. I still like him as a player and wish Martin would cut him a bit more slack, or at least try to maximize the output from him a little more. But I wouldn't feel any concern if the team opted to trade him or not qualify him. Martin isn't getting fired, though. And that's a factor. Kostitsyn is neither a smart player nor a reliable one nor consistent. This really puts him at a disadvantage here, and hinders his chances of hitting whatever upside we think he still possesses. Martin could get as much out of a wide variety of different players.

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06-07-2011, 01:05 AM
  #45
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Kostitsyn could probably be a 30 goals scorer on any other team. People here fail to understand that we are a very low scoring team. A player that puts 20-20 anywhere else will likely see his production fall here. He changed line nearly every 3 games this season, while having a big slump on the Gomez line, but he's still fourth in points.

First in hits
Habs were 18-1-1 when he scored
First in GWG

How is he a plug? How is he easily replaceable? At 3.25m you won't find many better options. And everybody knows that he can be better than that.

It sucks that his last name is Kostitsyn.


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06-07-2011, 08:47 AM
  #46
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It sucks that his last name is Kostitsyn.
I don't feel like too many people hold much of a grudge against his brother. I still really like Sergei too. (Even more than Andrei, probably). But the bottom line is that AK just seems to have reached a certain plateau as a Hab, and it's partly due to circumstances outside his control, namely the coach and the coach's style and preferences, and that is just the reality of the situation. It happens to a lot of players at various points in time. It doesn't have anything to do with his brother.

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06-07-2011, 09:01 AM
  #47
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Exactly! I think it's funny how people keep bashing AK and then would like to overpay for a 25 goals scorer on the UFA market

He's RFA, so you have to give him a slight raise. Forget these 2.5 - 3 millions deals, he'll get around 3,75 IMO
Not necessarily, the QO has to be a slight raise, but the player is free to refuse it. I think you could sign him for an average salary below his current with a raise in the first years of the deal. (Not sure he'd go for that 1 year before UFA TBH)

I think this might go to arbitration if he still has the right to elect it, then the team can win and sign him for less.

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06-07-2011, 09:01 AM
  #48
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There are tons of players who would be worth a try if it came to replacing him, and some players who bring more dimensions or consistency too, such that a 15-15 season from one of them might be as good as a 20-20 season from AK.

Ok now I've seen it all. lol

I think we have enough of those intangables in Gomez and Gill that we can't afford to take on players who would put up 15-15 seasons at $3.5m over players who can put up 20-20 seasons.

We need value for our money.

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Originally Posted by Blind Gardien View Post
Frolov, Ponikarovsky, Miettinen, Dupuis, Ryder, Vrbata, Larose , Kopecky....

Just a whole lot of options. He's easily replaceable IMHO.

Kostitsyn is neither a smart player nor a reliable one nor consistent. This really puts him at a disadvantage here, and hinders his chances of hitting whatever upside we think he still possesses. Martin could get as much out of a wide variety of different players.
Alot of your replacement players make this team worse by trading AK for any of them.

AK has been one of the most consistent players this year. Especially in the last half of the year.


I'm glad that PG is the GM and he knows the value of AK.

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06-07-2011, 09:55 AM
  #49
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Ok now I've seen it all. lol

I think we have enough of those intangables in Gomez and Gill that we can't afford to take on players who would put up 15-15 seasons at $3.5m over players who can put up 20-20 seasons.

We need value for our money.



Alot of your replacement players make this team worse by trading AK for any of them.

AK has been one of the most consistent players this year. Especially in the last half of the year.


I'm glad that PG is the GM and he knows the value of AK.
Same and I agree with your comments above the bold too, moving AK for the players listed in the post you quoted is at best a lateral move. (Seriously and no where in any of those deals will we get value equivalent to AK so the point you're quoting imo is moot)

Plus I think it's unfair to label a guy inconsistent after the year he had and all the while being inconsistent it was nearly always as a result of injuries.

He's had slow starts in the past and then when he broke out he got injured. Pretty tough to develop as a young euro when you're injured every season right when you get going. Give the guy one full season to give it his all and I down right promise the fans on HF they'll love the result.

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06-07-2011, 10:57 AM
  #50
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Alot of your replacement players make this team worse by trading AK for any of them.
Some would be worse than AK, some would be better, many would be about the same. The main difficulty is in knowing which is which. But one player, any player, at this level, probably just doesn't make much difference on the whole to the team. That's the main point. If you could get one of those players for half the price of AK giving 15-15 production, adding other dimensions, it may be a net benefit to the team. Or you could get another Samsonov bust. Or you could get AK stepping it up. Or staying the same. Or having a worse year. It's all about the same.
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I'm glad that PG is the GM and he knows the value of AK.
I guess I don't have any reason to infer anything about how PG values AK. Yet. We should see in the next few weeks, I guess.

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