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Super Early Reactions to Mid and Late Round 2003 Picks

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Old
10-14-2003, 06:15 PM
  #1
Dr GLU
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Super Early Reactions to Mid and Late Round 2003 Picks

My super early takes on the picks in the 4th round and later. I guess it *could* be article worthy material, but I've got something more important on my plate. Plus, it has only been 4 months since the draft.

4th Round

#134-F, Alexander Naurov, Yaroslavl "2"
Key Stats: -

Verdict: Neutral. Looks to have a good deal of potential, but with him being hurt, it is hard to judge him so far.

5th Round

#144-G, Eero Kilpelainen, KalPa Jr. A
Key Stats: 600 MIN, 4-4-1 Record, 2.91 GAA, .915 SV%

Verdict: Neutral. Our goalie scouts have been on in the past. Kilpelainen is carrying a heavy load in Finnish Jrs. so far with decent results.

#165-C, Gino Guyer, U. of Minnesota
Key Stats: 2GP, 1G (PP, GW), +1

Verdict: Neutral. Has the talent to be a good scorer in college, but needs consistency first. Looks to have a little bit of clutch play in him.

6th Round

#185-LW, Francis Wathier, Gatineau
Key Stats: 10GP, 3G, 5P, 30PIM, Even

Verdict: Thumbs down. There were better players available, and these types of guys show up every year.

#195-D, Drew Bagnall, St. Lawrence U.
Key Stats: 4GP, 4A, +5, 12 Shots

Verdict: Thumbs up. St. Lawrence isn't a strong team, but if Bagnall continues to play as he has so far, he could move up in the prospect depth charts.

#196-D, Elias Granath, Leksands
Key Stats: 7GP, 0P, Even

Verdict: Thumbs up. Good potential and is already a pro (albeit in a very limited role) at age 18.

8th Round

#259-D, Niko Vainio, Jokerit Jr. A
Key Stats: 4GP, 0P, +2

Verdict: Neutral. Needs years of work before anything can be made of him, but there are promising signs.

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Old
10-15-2003, 06:23 AM
  #2
Starsdude
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Granath/Vainio/Bagnall

Glu do you have any insight? You have Granath as the 20th prospect howver Vainio and Bagnall seem to be as intriguing any thoughts?

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Old
10-15-2003, 06:51 AM
  #3
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Sorry

Did not see your earlier post until after Still if you had any thoughts

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Old
10-15-2003, 08:31 AM
  #4
Dr GLU
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Heh, sorry about this Starsdude, but I wanted to try some of the moderator options. :p

Anyway, what I know about Bagnall is beyond limited, but that's almost always the case with players coming out of Jr. A hockey in Canada.

What I know about Granath is in the profile.

Since I actually saw him play, I can say more about Vainio. First thing, the kid needs to mature physically. He's way too lanky and looks awkward in play because it looks like he's adjusting to having grown. Still, he has a good skating stride and looks to have some promise as a two-way defender. But I think it will be at least two years before anyone will be able to tell if he will be a legit prospect or not. Right now, I don't consider him one.

Right now, out of those three, I say that Granath and Bagnall both look about equally promising, and Vainio is lagging behind.

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10-15-2003, 10:06 AM
  #5
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thanks overall good to hear as I feel more defensive prospects are needed also if I were the stars I would look at a guy like Wathier at defense

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Old
10-15-2003, 12:00 PM
  #6
Dr GLU
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Starsdude
thanks overall good to hear as I feel more defensive prospects are needed also if I were the stars I would look at a guy like Wathier at defense
Wathier's not very good defensively...his only use is as a lower line crash and bang winger.

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Old
10-15-2003, 12:23 PM
  #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GLUhipfan
Wathier's not very good defensively...his only use is as a lower line crash and bang winger.
Then this is just a horrible pick with guys who have talent like Enstrom, Brodziak , Paetch, Videll, Courchaine, volkov still available.

This brings up an interesting question. My general belief is that you take talent in the draft at the expense of grit and size given grit guys like Klatt, harvey etc are almost always available every year. I mean we take Erskine who if lucky will be Todd Simpson in the second round, Waugh in the third now Nickerson. In fact of all the grit picks only Morrow has made a real impact in the last 5-6 years. Any disagreement thoughts?

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Old
10-15-2003, 08:59 PM
  #8
Dr GLU
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Starsdude
This brings up an interesting question. My general belief is that you take talent in the draft at the expense of grit and size given grit guys like Klatt, harvey etc are almost always available every year. I mean we take Erskine who if lucky will be Todd Simpson in the second round, Waugh in the third now Nickerson. In fact of all the grit picks only Morrow has made a real impact in the last 5-6 years. Any disagreement thoughts?
Can't say I agree. If all the teams in the NHL thought the same way, then maybe you could get Erskines and Nickersons in the 6th rounds, but they don't. Because of their size and because in their draft year they look to have upside as more than just gritty D they get taken high. (Waugh is the exception here because he probably could have been taken much later). There are just as many 'talent picks' that fail to become NHL regulars as there are 'grit picks' (off the top of my head for the Stars: Jarkko Varvio, Juha Lind, Pavel Patera, Ladislav Vlcek, Daniel Volrab, probably Artem Chernov as well). My only 'rule' is that you take talent in the first round, no matter what.

There has to be a point where size and heart figure into the equation, but talent is important as well. A good example is Crombeen vs. O'Sullivan. Crombeen has intangibles and size over O'Sullivan, but the talent gap is huge, and IMO, O'Sullivan is the right choice there.

Even though the Stars have had luck with picking up undersized talents recently, it's not a trend you can expect to work forever. For every Niko Kapanen, there's two Greg Leebs. I really think a mix of picks is best, BUT I wouldn't reach too far for a player (e.g. Crombeen, Wathier) to ensure that a mix is taken.

For the record, I don't think Nickerson is a reach there. His start in college exhibitions (2GP, 3G, 1A, first pair D) is quite good.

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10-16-2003, 03:36 AM
  #9
Starsdude
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Interesting discussion. I think your best point is that you would not reach too far for a player to ensure grit. I think the other point is that higher size/intangibles picks are higher because they have some talent. It is the picks that never will have a chance taken above players who may lack size that bother me especially when the system lacks talent overall

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Old
10-16-2003, 10:22 AM
  #10
denniso
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"Even though the Stars have had luck with picking up undersized talents recently, it's not a trend you can expect to work forever. For every Niko Kapanen, there's two Greg Leebs. I really think a mix of picks is best, BUT I wouldn't reach too far for a player (e.g. Crombeen, Wathier) to ensure that a mix is taken."

Very good point about the importance of a mix of prospect types. There are organizations that have consistently favored one type over the others. Obviously the Stars love of grit/character types has lead to resorting to spending big bucks to make up for a lack of home-grown scoring talent. Funny to look at them now, but the Capitals used to be enfatuated with defensemen - and they could not buy a goal.

So how do you make up for that? If you decide to focus on one attribute, whether it be skating, scoring, size, whatever, you end up passing up the best available prospect. I think that since Gainey left, the Stars have begun mixing the picks better.

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10-16-2003, 10:44 AM
  #11
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GLU, I'd like your opinion on the Stars scouting. Obviously they have a heck of a scout, Kari Takko, in Finland.

If you know the answer to this - great. This may be a bit of a reach, but you surprise me with how much you know about the scouting aspects. What do you think of their scouting in various leagues?

Here's a list of names and their responsibilities.

http://www.nhl.com/futures/2003draft/stars051603.html and the Stars site has the following (Russian scout Andrei Yakovenko is not listed on the Stars list of employees).

Shannon Currie - OHL, NAHL, CCHA
Hans Edlund - Europe
Jack Foley - Hockey East, ECAC, New England prep & high schools
Jiri Hrdina - Europe
Dennis Holland - British Columbia
Jimmy Johnston - QMJHL, Junior B, Hockey East
Jim Pedersen - Saskatchewan
Brad Robson - Calgary
Karri Takko - Europe

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Old
10-16-2003, 11:53 AM
  #12
Dr GLU
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Quote:
Originally Posted by denniso
GLU, I'd like your opinion on the Stars scouting. Obviously they have a heck of a scout, Kari Takko, in Finland.

If you know the answer to this - great. This may be a bit of a reach, but you surprise me with how much you know about the scouting aspects. What do you think of their scouting in various leagues?
I'll try my best.

Quote:
Originally Posted by denniso
Shannon Currie - OHL, NAHL, CCHA
I'd put her about average. We have taken a lot of players from these leagues (like Crombeen, Bacashihua, Nickerson), but the success rate is about what you would expect for drafting. This tend to be the region we look for intangibles in players sometimes over talent it seems to me (excluding Daley). However, the Stars were probably after Eric Nystrom, Jeff Tambellini, and Anthony Stewart from this region in the past couple of years, so they may have been after players that just didn't fall to them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by denniso
Hans Edlund - Europe
I think we've done a good job of finding talent in Sweden. There have been some strong 3rd round picks (Lundqvist, Hagos, Tjarnqvist), and they've also grabbed a few players that could have NHL potential (Holtet, Vas, Granath). Then you've got Loui Eriksson, who looks like a terrific pick where he was taken (even though I thought he was a little bit of a reach at the time).

Quote:
Originally Posted by denniso
Jack Foley - Hockey East, ECAC, New England prep & high schools
We've had some good picks in Aquino and Ryan who are no longer with the organization, an average pick in Marco Rosa, and a couple of late round picks with little future (Havern, Brain Sullivan). This doesn't seem to be an area the Stars draft from often, so it's hard to really judge this guy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by denniso
Jiri Hrdina - Europe
Our Czech scouting has been rather poor for a while. The selection of Polak this year was a good one, but the landscape is littered with the likes of Volrab, Vlcek, Tomica, and Blazek.

Quote:
Originally Posted by denniso
Dennis Holland - British Columbia
He's done OK, I guess. This is another region we haven't had a ton of picks from. Only ones I can think of are Cox and Draney, and they're nothing special.

Quote:
Originally Posted by denniso
Jimmy Johnston - QMJHL, Junior B, Hockey East
I don't like our Q scout at all. While I think Vagner was a great pick, I haven't been sold on some of the other selections (or lack thereof) from players in this area. For years, the Stars never drafted from the Q so that may be part of the reason.

Quote:
Originally Posted by denniso
Jim Pedersen - Saskatchewan
I think this guy is doing a terrific job. Recent finds include David Bararuk from the WHL and out of the SJHL, Drew Bagnall and Geoff Waugh. This is a guys that can seem to find promising players in the later rounds without a lot of problem. It's also nice that he gets out and scout Jr. A and lets the Stars know about some of higher end players at that level.

Quote:
Originally Posted by denniso
Brad Robson - Calgary
We haven't had a lot of recent selections out of Alberta. In fact, I can't think of a single one, so I can't say anything about this guy's abilities.

Quote:
Originally Posted by denniso
Karri Takko - Europe
Our best scout, without a doubt, in my mind. He's found us several good players in the late rounds from Finland. It's hard to tell whether he's influenced some of the better picks from other countries as well since he probably is the head European scout. He seems to have a tendency to gravitate towards players with excellent hockey sense that may not be the most physically gifted at the time. The results are clear to Stars fans in Miettinen and Kapanen, and in a few years, Jussi Jokinen will probably show the same thing. All his selections haven't been gems (Tuokko comes to mind), but he's done a good job of finding players that others passed over.

The final thing I'll say is that our Russian scouting is rather poor. I think they found a steal in Naurov (because his game is very much suited to NA), but overall, there hasn't been any success there. However, that was mostly under Larionov's brother as our Russian scout (can't remember his first name).

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Old
10-17-2003, 09:18 AM
  #13
denniso
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Hey GLU, thanks!

I saved the info to refer back to down the road. I'm interested in seeing if trends continue, and how the Stars management handles their scouting department.

With Armstrong's propensity for picking up early round picks, he seems to place more importance on developing through the draft. The CBA will likely add further emphasis. If I were a deep-pocketed, success-driven owner, and they limit my competitive advantage to go after free agents, I would want to spend extra money to have the best scouting staff possible.

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