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What is the 2011 1st Overall worth?

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Old
06-10-2011, 02:52 PM
  #26
SLAPSHOT723
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It's probably worth RNH.

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06-10-2011, 03:14 PM
  #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the word View Post
You wouldn't trade Erik Karlsson for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. OK then.
I know I wouldn't ever consider losing Karlsson for Hopkins.

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06-10-2011, 03:18 PM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eberlehall View Post
You keep saying in all of you troll posts "draft class without a consensus 1st overall"
and I see people asking you to show one ranking where RNH is not number one and you disappear like a snake in the grass.

Are you going to run again this time or will you try to back up your comments? Go ahead, find one recent (no not done at the beginning of the year) that has RNH not the number 1.
Central Scouting, the International Scouting Service, Bob MacKenzie's scout survey, The Red Line Report, The Hockey News Draft Preview, Future Considerations, and a recent poll of 15 individual scouts who were all unanimous except for one who refused to make a decision, all have Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ranked as the best player in this draft. All of the noted hockey analysts in the world have Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at number one.

vs

A few vocal internet posters who assert there are 3 players in the running.

Who to believe?

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Old
06-10-2011, 03:27 PM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bjindaho View Post
The last time the 1st overall was traded, it was 1 and 77 for 3 and a pick in the 50s. Don't expect to see much more than that.
Well first, it was #1 and #73 for Mikael Samuelsson, #3 and #55, so add a decent young player to that. Second I think it's pretty fair to say Florida lost this trade hands down, so I doubt the Oilers are looking to replicate it. Third, the value of top draft picks has gone up since the new CBA and the salary cap with teams looking to build from within and needing cheap young talent.

Now I'm not saying it should be as much of an overpayment as some of these proposals(I'm looking at you Karlsson, Rundblad and 2 1sts), but using Florida as an example(mainly because it's easiest) I think they would need to add #33 to #3 and then either another late 2nd or a young player that projects to be a 3rd line guy with possible 2nd line upside.

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06-10-2011, 03:50 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pyke View Post
Lol. You're dreaming in technicolour if you think the Avalanche would trade Stastny - straight up - for the 1st overall pick - who if he develops, maybe has a chance at being as good as Stastny.

As to Rundblad, Ottawa would not even entertain Rundblad + 6th for 1st. Rundblad's status has shot up in the last year with his performances - and frankly I'd much rather Rundblad + Couturier than RNH.
Of course you would, it makes no sense for Ottawa to make that deal, they have a #1 center already in Spezza. The Oilers on the other hand have no reason to do that trade for any less, and I'm not even sure they do it as is. They need that #1 guy, because let's face it, when was the last team to win the cup without a real #1 center?

Though I doubt Couturier drops to #6, I think he'll be taken 3-5 as I can't see 5 other guys being taken before him. At the least the Sens will still get a really good prospect.

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06-10-2011, 03:54 PM
  #31
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Okay, I just deleted like a whole page's worth of responses as this has gone way off topic from "What is the first pick worth" to sniping between Senators and Oilers fans. So, let's try to keep this civil and discuss the actual worth of the first overall pick and stop picking fights.

(If your post was deleted, it was either because it seemed trollish/flamebaitish or it got lost in the shuffle and I apologize)

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Old
06-10-2011, 03:55 PM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaen View Post
Of course you would, it makes no sense for Ottawa to make that deal, they have a #1 center already in Spezza. The Oilers on the other hand have no reason to do that trade for any less, and I'm not even sure they do it as is. They need that #1 guy, because let's face it, when was the last team to win the cup without a real #1 center?

Though I doubt Couturier drops to #6, I think he'll be taken 3-5 as I can't see 5 other guys being taken before him. At the least the Sens will still get a really good prospect.
That was exactly what I was saying. EDM needs this #1 center position filled badly and they will ask for a huge overpayment for the #1 pick because that is what they need.

I would love Ottawa to pick up Coutourier but Zibanejad would be a nice consolation prize. Zibby has actually moved up the rankings in alot people's eyes. Top 5 maybe not but who knows?

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06-10-2011, 03:56 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by internetdotcom View Post
Yeah, he was -30 ... on one of the worst teams in the league, comprised mostly of AHLers much of the year, paired with such defensive stalwarts as the 10/11 versions of Sergei Gonchar, Filip Kuba, and Chris Phillips. Oh, and he played the majority of the year in front of the swiss cheese slices that are Pascal Leclaire and Brian Elliott. Any defenceman on Earth would be well into the minuses under those conditions.



Thank you. Its great to see a fan of another team recognize the talented and special player that Karlsson is. There is a reason he is an untouchable on the Sens.
So Karlsson doesn't remind you of Lubomir Visnovsky? How about Brian Rafalski? He'll be fortunate to be as good as either. I think he has a chance to get there.

Those players don't get you a first line center. One that scouts say has the best on-ice vision over the last 20 years.

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06-10-2011, 03:58 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the word View Post
So Karlsson doesn't remind you of Lubomir Visnovsky? How about Brian Rafalski? He'll be fortunate to be as good as either. I think he has a chance to get there.

Those players don't get you a first line center. One that scouts say has the best on-ice vision over the last 20 years.
So Karlsson might some day be as good as the reigning defenseman scoring champion? And you expect the Sens to trade him at all when he is on a dirt cheap contract? He is untouchable bud. Our first pick isn't Crosby.

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06-10-2011, 03:59 PM
  #35
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Karlsson is worth more than the 1st Round Pick. Here's why:

Just for comparison purposes with Visnovsky (noted earlier in the thread):
2000-2001: 7g-32a-39pts in 81 gp (+16) [25 years old]
2001-2002: 4g-17a-21pts in 72 gp (-5) [26 years old]
2002-2003: 8g-16a-24pts in 57 gp (+2) [27 years old]

By contrast:
2009-2010: 5g-21a-26pts in 60 gp (-5) [19 years old]
2010-2011: 13g-32a-45pts in 75 gp (-30) [20 years old]

The difference between these two players?

Visnovsky was 25, 26 and 27 in those seasons. Erik Karlsson was 19 and 20.

Here's some other fun stat lines for you:
(1)
2005-2006: 9g-12a-21pts in 81 gp (-11) [22 years old]
2006-2007: 2g-29a-31pts in 82gp (0) [23 years old]

(2)
1992-1993: 11g-29a-40pts in 80gp (+8) [20 years old]
1993-1994: 10g-36a-46pts in 81gp (+34) [21 years old]

(3)
2008-2009: 6g-21a-27pts in 81gp (-17) [20 years old]
2009-2010: 16g-43a-59pts in 82gp (+20) [21 years old]

(4)
2003-2004: 9g-17a-26pts in 54gp (+13) [23 years old]
2004-2005: Lockout
2005-2006: 15g-20a-35pts in 75gp (+3) [25 years old]

(5)
1996-1997: 6g-24a-30pts in 82gp (+1) [20 years old]
1997-1998: 8g-14a-22pts in 80gp (+17) [21 years old]

(6)
2007-2008: 8g-12a-20pts in 75gp (+6) [22 years old]
2008-2009: 10g-27a-37pts in 80gp (+11) [23 years old]

(7)
1966-1967: 13g-28a-41pts in 61gp (?) [19 years old]
1967-1968: 11g-20a-31pts in 46gp (?) [20 years old]

(8)
1999-2000: 5g-27a-32pts in 75gp (+21) [26 years old]
2000-2001: 9g-43a-52pts in 78gp (+36) [27 years old]

Out of that bunch, the only ones who approach Karlsson's stat lines at a similar age are (3) and (7). Look below for who those are...



(1): Duncan Keith. (2): Scott Niedermayer. (3): Drew Doughty. (4): Marc-Andre Bergeron. (5): Wade Redden. (6): Alexander Edler. (7): Bobby Orr. (8): Brian Rafalski



Few defenseman play in the NHL at 19, because of the fact you need to be big enough and strong enough to defend - and it's also a hard position to learn. Players tend to come into the league around 22-23 or even as late as 25-26, and that's when you begin to see it. Teams expect young d-men to make mistakes. Ottawa couldn't care less that Karlsson was -30 last season - the fact he oozes offensive skill makes him pretty much untouchable, and if he was dealt, not for a 1st overall pick in a year like this one.


Last edited by Pyke*: 06-10-2011 at 04:05 PM.
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Old
06-10-2011, 04:02 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by the word View Post
It would have to be something like Erik Karlsson + David Rundblad + # 6 (2011) + first round pick in 2012.
Funniest post I've seen in days

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06-10-2011, 04:02 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by the word View Post
So Karlsson doesn't remind you of Lubomir Visnovsky? How about Brian Rafalski? He'll be fortunate to be as good as either. I think he has a chance to get there.

Those players don't get you a first line center. One that scouts say has the best on-ice vision over the last 20 years.
Scouts say a lot of things. They're only true when they come true. When they don't, you've just sold the farm for a mediocre 2nd line C.

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06-10-2011, 04:03 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by zeus3007 View Post
So Karlsson might some day be as good as the reigning defenseman scoring champion? And you expect the Sens to trade him at all when he is on a dirt cheap contract? He is untouchable bud. Our first pick isn't Crosby.
Again, let's wait and see how Karlsson does next season. I'm willing to wait.

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06-10-2011, 04:05 PM
  #39
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Wow! Karlsson is being compared to HoF'ers LMFAO. Start with Mike Green and work your way down to MAB.

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06-10-2011, 04:09 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by Homesick View Post
Wow! Karlsson is being compared to HoF'ers LMFAO. Start with Mike Green and work your way down to MAB.
Firstly,

Mike Green:
2005-2006: 1g-2a-3pts in 22gp (-8) [21 years old]
2006-2007: 2g-10a-12pts in 70gp (-10) [22 years old]
2007-2008: 18g-38a-56pts in 82gp (+6) [23 years old]
2008-2009: 31g-42-73pts in 68gp (+24) [24 years old]
2009-2010: 19g-57a-76pts in 75gp (+39) [25 years old]

Mike Green is probably the best offensive d-man in the league right now. On one of the top 5 offensive teams in the League.

Karlsson is at least 2 years ahead of where Green was offensively at 21. You want to compare him to Green? Sure. Why not.

I wouldn't trade Mike Green for the 1st Overall pick either.

-=-=-

Secondly,

Posters like you amuse me. I've not drawn any conclusion - merely posted in one convenient place the stat lines of 10 players (11 with Green), and shown their respective ages when they put up those totals. It is the reader who links the two together and comes to the (obvious) conclusion that some of the figures are not like the others.

It's easy to make blanket statements - like, RNH will be Joe Sakic (which - he probably won't be, though if the Oilers pick him and he's half as good as Sakic was - pretty good pick...). It's much harder to simply lay out facts and have them speak for themselves.

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06-10-2011, 04:10 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by the word View Post
So Karlsson doesn't remind you of Lubomir Visnovsky? How about Brian Rafalski? He'll be fortunate to be as good as either. I think he has a chance to get there.

Those players don't get you a first line center. One that scouts say has the best on-ice vision over the last 20 years.
As an Oilers fan, you'd think you would recognize the risk prospects carry despite scout's comments.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uI0CF...layer_embedded

“He is going to be a dominating, play-making center,” Van Boxmeer said of the 6-foot-3 195 pounder. “He is a guy who looks to make the play rather than shoot himself. He’ll be a guy who can get 100 assists and 20-25 goals in the NHL.”

“I have followed Patrik’s progress since December of 1995. The impression he left with me then and throughout the various tournaments I have seen him play, is that he is the brightest young prospect developed in the Czech Republic since Jaromir Jagr, ” said Bob Owen of RHO Hockey, a scouting agency.

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06-10-2011, 04:19 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by Lonewolfe2015 View Post
As an Oilers fan, you'd think you would recognize the risk prospects carry despite scout's comments.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uI0CF...layer_embedded

“He is going to be a dominating, play-making center,” Van Boxmeer said of the 6-foot-3 195 pounder. “He is a guy who looks to make the play rather than shoot himself. He’ll be a guy who can get 100 assists and 20-25 goals in the NHL.”

“I have followed Patrik’s progress since December of 1995. The impression he left with me then and throughout the various tournaments I have seen him play, is that he is the brightest young prospect developed in the Czech Republic since Jaromir Jagr, ” said Bob Owen of RHO Hockey, a scouting agency.
If a team believes Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is going to be a bust they would be well advised not to trade for him but if they expect him to be the real deal they should expect to overpay because that is what it will take to get a deal done. That's all I'm saying, nothing more.

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06-10-2011, 04:22 PM
  #43
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what the **** is with all the Ottawa fans screaming no consensus in every mock draft i have seen (bob mac, Craig button, 15 scouts asked, etc) hes the obvious and unanimous number 1

as for what its going to cost, probably a top 5 pick+a solid to good prospect...cant see tambo trading down beyond top 5 maybe 6 but thats about it

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06-10-2011, 04:23 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by the word View Post
It would have to be something like Erik Karlsson + David Rundblad + # 6 (2011) + first round pick in 2012.
Obvious troll is obvious.
Lame troll is lame.
Stupid troll is stupid.

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06-10-2011, 04:24 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by oilers92 View Post
what the **** is with all the Ottawa fans screaming no consensus in every mock draft i have seen (bob mac, Craig button, 15 scouts asked, etc) hes the obvious and unanimous number 1

as for what its going to cost, probably a top 5 pick+a solid to good prospect...cant see tambo trading down beyond top 5 maybe 6 but thats about it
To be fair, I said that earlier in the thread.

Quote:
Alright, how about this:
-As a Senators fan, I would not trade Erik Karlsson for 1st Overall - straight up.

In fact, I can extend this to almost a dozen teams in the league with elite young players under the age of 22, and tell you that every single one of them would not deal an elite player at that age for a 1st overall pick in a draft class without a consensus 1st overall.

Do you want to know why? The best case scenario for the 1st overall pick is that you land a superstar type player - exactly what you're proposing giving up (let alone the other assets you've deigned to throw in).

A more realistic offer for the #1 pick would involve something like this:
(1): Blue Chip Prospect (think David Rundblad in Ottawa or Nazem Kadri in Toronto) and a LATE 1st (think past 20) OR a Top 3 Pick OR a Top 7-8 Pick [this year] with a Very Good to Good Prospect (think Jake Gardiner in Toronto or Patrick Weircioch in Ottawa)
(2): A 2nd Round Pick
(3): Another marginal asset.

(1)+(2)+(3) = 1st Overall.

Something along those lines is what it would cost. In a year with a consensus #1 without so many downsides, the price might be higher. I do believe RNH to be the BPA - but he has as much risk of not developing as anyone else does in the top 8, and teams know this - which skews the value down from where it otherwise would be.

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06-10-2011, 04:29 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by Pyke View Post
Karlsson is worth more than the 1st Round Pick. Here's why:

Just for comparison purposes with Visnovsky (noted earlier in the thread):
2000-2001: 7g-32a-39pts in 81 gp (+16) [25 years old]
2001-2002: 4g-17a-21pts in 72 gp (-5) [26 years old]
2002-2003: 8g-16a-24pts in 57 gp (+2) [27 years old]

By contrast:
2009-2010: 5g-21a-26pts in 60 gp (-5) [19 years old]
2010-2011: 13g-32a-45pts in 75 gp (-30) [20 years old]

The difference between these two players?

Visnovsky was 25, 26 and 27 in those seasons. Erik Karlsson was 19 and 20.

Here's some other fun stat lines for you:
(1)
2005-2006: 9g-12a-21pts in 81 gp (-11) [22 years old]
2006-2007: 2g-29a-31pts in 82gp (0) [23 years old]

(2)
1992-1993: 11g-29a-40pts in 80gp (+8) [20 years old]
1993-1994: 10g-36a-46pts in 81gp (+34) [21 years old]

(3)
2008-2009: 6g-21a-27pts in 81gp (-17) [20 years old]
2009-2010: 16g-43a-59pts in 82gp (+20) [21 years old]

(4)
2003-2004: 9g-17a-26pts in 54gp (+13) [23 years old]
2004-2005: Lockout
2005-2006: 15g-20a-35pts in 75gp (+3) [25 years old]

(5)
1996-1997: 6g-24a-30pts in 82gp (+1) [20 years old]
1997-1998: 8g-14a-22pts in 80gp (+17) [21 years old]

(6)
2007-2008: 8g-12a-20pts in 75gp (+6) [22 years old]
2008-2009: 10g-27a-37pts in 80gp (+11) [23 years old]

(7)
1966-1967: 13g-28a-41pts in 61gp (?) [19 years old]
1967-1968: 11g-20a-31pts in 46gp (?) [20 years old]

(8)
1999-2000: 5g-27a-32pts in 75gp (+21) [26 years old]
2000-2001: 9g-43a-52pts in 78gp (+36) [27 years old]

Out of that bunch, the only ones who approach Karlsson's stat lines at a similar age are (3) and (7). Look below for who those are...



(1): Duncan Keith. (2): Scott Niedermayer. (3): Drew Doughty. (4): Marc-Andre Bergeron. (5): Wade Redden. (6): Alexander Edler. (7): Bobby Orr. (8): Brian Rafalski



Few defenseman play in the NHL at 19, because of the fact you need to be big enough and strong enough to defend - and it's also a hard position to learn. Players tend to come into the league around 22-23 or even as late as 25-26, and that's when you begin to see it. Teams expect young d-men to make mistakes. Ottawa couldn't care less that Karlsson was -30 last season - the fact he oozes offensive skill makes him pretty much untouchable, and if he was dealt, not for a 1st overall pick in a year like this one.
-30 -30 -30

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06-10-2011, 04:31 PM
  #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lonewolfe2015 View Post
As an Oilers fan, you'd think you would recognize the risk prospects carry despite scout's comments.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uI0CF...layer_embedded

“He is going to be a dominating, play-making center,” Van Boxmeer said of the 6-foot-3 195 pounder. “He is a guy who looks to make the play rather than shoot himself. He’ll be a guy who can get 100 assists and 20-25 goals in the NHL.”

“I have followed Patrik’s progress since December of 1995. The impression he left with me then and throughout the various tournaments I have seen him play, is that he is the brightest young prospect developed in the Czech Republic since Jaromir Jagr, ” said Bob Owen of RHO Hockey, a scouting agency.
Should they make there pick based on the opinion of "Lonewolfe2015" on hfboards.com instead?

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06-10-2011, 04:32 PM
  #48
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Originally Posted by Pyke View Post
To be fair, I said that earlier in the thread.
It's not you. How many posts have been removed from this thread and why? How about multiple other threads including Sens fans who deemed it necessary to visit the Oiler's board with their 'opinions'. You know exactly what I'm talking about and don't pretend you don't.

My trade proposal was a reactionary one to a poster saying that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was worth the 6th overall and a 4th rounder at best.

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06-10-2011, 04:34 PM
  #49
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Originally Posted by eberlehall View Post
-30 -30 -30
And? Ottawa scored 192 goals last season and allowed 250 against.

Only New Jersey (174) scored less.

Additionally, only Toronto (251), Columbus (258), N.Y.I. (264), Edmonton (269), Atlanta (269) and Colorado (288) allowed more.

Karlsson figured in on 23% of his team's goals scored. At 20.

Simply put, he's not available for the 1st Overall - nor would any comparable player.

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06-10-2011, 04:35 PM
  #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pyke View Post
Karlsson is worth more than the 1st Round Pick. Here's why:

Just for comparison purposes with Visnovsky (noted earlier in the thread):
2000-2001: 7g-32a-39pts in 81 gp (+16) [25 years old]
2001-2002: 4g-17a-21pts in 72 gp (-5) [26 years old]
2002-2003: 8g-16a-24pts in 57 gp (+2) [27 years old]

By contrast:
2009-2010: 5g-21a-26pts in 60 gp (-5) [19 years old]
2010-2011: 13g-32a-45pts in 75 gp (-30) [20 years old]

The difference between these two players?

Visnovsky was 25, 26 and 27 in those seasons. Erik Karlsson was 19 and 20.

Here's some other fun stat lines for you:
(1)
2005-2006: 9g-12a-21pts in 81 gp (-11) [22 years old]
2006-2007: 2g-29a-31pts in 82gp (0) [23 years old]

(2)
1992-1993: 11g-29a-40pts in 80gp (+8) [20 years old]
1993-1994: 10g-36a-46pts in 81gp (+34) [21 years old]

(3)
2008-2009: 6g-21a-27pts in 81gp (-17) [20 years old]
2009-2010: 16g-43a-59pts in 82gp (+20) [21 years old]

(4)
2003-2004: 9g-17a-26pts in 54gp (+13) [23 years old]
2004-2005: Lockout
2005-2006: 15g-20a-35pts in 75gp (+3) [25 years old]

(5)
1996-1997: 6g-24a-30pts in 82gp (+1) [20 years old]
1997-1998: 8g-14a-22pts in 80gp (+17) [21 years old]

(6)
2007-2008: 8g-12a-20pts in 75gp (+6) [22 years old]
2008-2009: 10g-27a-37pts in 80gp (+11) [23 years old]

(7)
1966-1967: 13g-28a-41pts in 61gp (?) [19 years old]
1967-1968: 11g-20a-31pts in 46gp (?) [20 years old]

(8)
1999-2000: 5g-27a-32pts in 75gp (+21) [26 years old]
2000-2001: 9g-43a-52pts in 78gp (+36) [27 years old]

Out of that bunch, the only ones who approach Karlsson's stat lines at a similar age are (3) and (7). Look below for who those are...



(1): Duncan Keith. (2): Scott Niedermayer. (3): Drew Doughty. (4): Marc-Andre Bergeron. (5): Wade Redden. (6): Alexander Edler. (7): Bobby Orr. (8): Brian Rafalski



Few defenseman play in the NHL at 19, because of the fact you need to be big enough and strong enough to defend - and it's also a hard position to learn. Players tend to come into the league around 22-23 or even as late as 25-26, and that's when you begin to see it. Teams expect young d-men to make mistakes. Ottawa couldn't care less that Karlsson was -30 last season - the fact he oozes offensive skill makes him pretty much untouchable, and if he was dealt, not for a 1st overall pick in a year like this one.
To be honest, that list is impressive. Especially since he got that many points this year on a terrible team. If Karlsson can keep it up and improve on his defense he will just as valuable as Doughty.

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