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Don't throw good money after bad: Why buy-outs will help

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Old
06-13-2011, 04:58 PM
  #26
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sorry

buy out are a last resort and are weak man's way out of problems

and to say it will save money and help the product as is asine

1) Save money?

say buy souray out--theory put forward is this will save Kats money(he is on the farm so the product on the ice is a null subject)

Sheldon Souray buyout from CapGeek.com

* 2011-12: $2,400,000
* 2012-13: $1,500,000
cap hit this season is 5.4 while actual pay is 4.5--buy out is 3.9total for a savings of 600k--not much of a savings

brule is say a 3rd liner

his buy out over 2 years is

* 2011-12: $308,333
* 2012-13: $308,333
sal and cap hit is 1.850 so the buy out is 616k saving 1mill right? who replaces Brule? if the player gets over 1mill a year there is no savings

Some oiler fans are blind to the fact that if the oilers want to get a UFA--they will over pay and most of us know that--but some refuse to accept it.

Oilers have kids on the farm who need to develop and before you toss out a rookies name--take a look at any debate about gagner and cogliano--both players could have used a year or two more either in junior or the farm--before we start tossing kids into the line up we need to give them time to develop--this goes back to the days the oilers had Martin Gelinas--one more year in junior and he could have beeen ten times better then he was---if the oiler fans want to rush their kids they will find themselves in an endless cycle of problems

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06-13-2011, 08:36 PM
  #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemsky4PM View Post
Sheldon Souray will be bought out.

Gilbert Brule and Nikolai Khabibulin should be bought out.
Souray will bought out.

Brule might be bought out but I don't think so. It wouldn't surprise me if he got exposed to waivers at some point though.

No chance in hell Tambo buys out Nikolai "he'll be our MVP" Khabibulin. The only thing worse for a GM than making such a colossal mistake is to admit to it by cutting his losses. It's hard to blame this one on Tambo though... hindsight is 20/20 right? I mean, it took me all of 0.5 seconds to conclude that this was one of the worst free agent signings I'd ever seen. I'm sure if Tambo had the benefit to look ahead into the future 0.5 seconds he would've made the same conclusion and avoided this mistake.


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06-14-2011, 03:26 AM
  #28
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Khabbi blows and I've said so for ages now... certainly before last season began, but honestly I think the Oilers management team is on the lottery draft gravy train for at least another year or two.

There are some potential franchise players coming up in the draft in 2012 and being a lottery team is not a bad ending to next season. Khabbi plays a BIG role in capturing another top 5 draft pick so I don't doubt that he plays at least another season with the team. The 2012/13 season is more of a question mark because it all depends on how the team looks to be shaping up by that point after the 2012 draft and the UFA acquisitions (or lack thereof) in the summer of 2012.

It's a fine balancing act trying to ice a team crappy enough to be a lottery team while still being entertaining enough (or at least giving enough spark of hope that they'll be entertaining in years to come) to compel a rink full of butts to sit down in the stands for every home game.

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06-14-2011, 06:15 AM
  #29
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Originally Posted by PDO View Post
This is the case, and I'd agree.

I'm indifferent to buying out Brule.

I'd be against buying out Souray; but I'm still holding out hope that this team will decide to actually be competitive in 2012-13, and that wasting $1,500,000 cap on a guy whose not on the team would be a detriment.
How would the $1.5M cap hit be a detriment? There is no way they get anywhere near the cap in 2012-2013, and if they tried to do so it would be absloute mismanagement.

I'd be surprised if they do not buyout Souray and shocked if they bought out either Brule or Khabibulin.

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06-14-2011, 06:18 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by TheStig View Post
sorry

buy out are a last resort and are weak man's way out of problems

and to say it will save money and help the product as is asine

1) Save money?

say buy souray out--theory put forward is this will save Kats money(he is on the farm so the product on the ice is a null subject)

Sheldon Souray buyout from CapGeek.com

* 2011-12: $2,400,000
* 2012-13: $1,500,000
cap hit this season is 5.4 while actual pay is 4.5--buy out is 3.9total for a savings of 600k--not much of a savings

brule is say a 3rd liner

his buy out over 2 years is

* 2011-12: $308,333
* 2012-13: $308,333
sal and cap hit is 1.850 so the buy out is 616k saving 1mill right? who replaces Brule? if the player gets over 1mill a year there is no savings

Some oiler fans are blind to the fact that if the oilers want to get a UFA--they will over pay and most of us know that--but some refuse to accept it.

Oilers have kids on the farm who need to develop and before you toss out a rookies name--take a look at any debate about gagner and cogliano--both players could have used a year or two more either in junior or the farm--before we start tossing kids into the line up we need to give them time to develop--this goes back to the days the oilers had Martin Gelinas--one more year in junior and he could have beeen ten times better then he was---if the oiler fans want to rush their kids they will find themselves in an endless cycle of problems
The buyout for Souray is $1.5M in each of the next two years. It saves them $1.5M. What you quoted are the respective cap hits.

In the case of Brule, you save $1.2M because he is under 26.

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06-14-2011, 06:21 AM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fourier View Post
The buyout for Souray is $1.5M in each of the next two years. It saves them $1.5M. What you quoted are the respective cap hits.

In the case of Brule, you save $1.2M because he is under 26.

I got my figures from cap geek

also--you have to pay to replace them

there is no money to be saved by buying players out

and in the case of souray--a buy out counts for two years against the cap while another year on the farm doesn't--correct?

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06-14-2011, 06:32 AM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheStig View Post
I got my figures from cap geek

also--you have to pay to replace them

there is no money to be saved by buying players out

and in the case of souray--a buy out counts for two years against the cap while another year on the farm doesn't--correct?
The figures you quoted were the cap hits not the buyout amounts. For front loaded deals these are not the same. The buyout amount is 2/3 of the remaining actual salary (in this case 2/3 of $4.5M = $3M for a saving of $1.5M) and 1/3 if the player is 26 or younger.

The part that I agree with is that since you have to pay to replace them you don't save as much as one might expect. But in Souray's case you are not replacing hi in Hershey.

Brule would be picked up on waivers so a buyout makes no sense at all for him.

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06-14-2011, 06:40 AM
  #33
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[QUOTE=Fourier;33622477]The figures you quoted were the cap hits not the buyout amounts. For front loaded deals these are not the same. The buyout amount is 2/3 of the remaining actual salary (in this case 2/3 of $4.5M = $3M for a saving of $1.5M) and 1/3 if the player is 26 or younger.

The part that I agree with is that since you have to pay to replace them you don't save as much as one might expect. But in Souray's case you are not replacing hi in Hershey.

Brule would be picked up on waivers so a buyout makes no sense at all for him.[/QUOTE]Yes he would but I do not see the point in giving up on him after a year of illness . How could he harm us by keeping him and playing him on 4th line.

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06-14-2011, 07:28 AM
  #34
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Buying out Khabibulin doesn't make sense. I'm not sure how the rules for buy-outs on +35 contracts work, but if it follows the traditional idea of cap hit over twice the remaining years, than it's a big no-no. Right now, Khabbi's contract runs out July 1, 2012, the same day as Hall's, Paajarvi's, Eberle's, and Whitney's, aka the day this teams going to need all the cap space it can get.

Why would the team put itself in a position where it has less cap to resign key players, when it can easily bite the bullet over the next two years with little issue?

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06-14-2011, 07:43 AM
  #35
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Originally Posted by newoilburnsclean View Post
Yes he would but I do not see the point in giving up on him after a year of illness . How could he harm us by keeping him and playing him on 4th line.
I don't have a problem with keeping Brule. I like the guy. I just don't see him as a buyout candidate no matter what happens.

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06-14-2011, 07:50 AM
  #36
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Originally Posted by Dazed and Confused View Post
Buying out Khabibulin doesn't make sense. I'm not sure how the rules for buy-outs on +35 contracts work, but if it follows the traditional idea of cap hit over twice the remaining years, than it's a big no-no. Right now, Khabbi's contract runs out July 1, 2012, the same day as Hall's, Paajarvi's, Eberle's, and Whitney's, aka the day this teams going to need all the cap space it can get.

Why would the team put itself in a position where it has less cap to resign key players, when it can easily bite the bullet over the next two years with little issue?
I don't think that they would buy out Khabibulin. At least not this year.

Because it is a 35+ contract the buyout the works differently. The money would still be 2/3 of the remaining dollars spread out over twice the contract length, but his whole cap hit stays for the usual term of the deal. As such there would be no cap hit in 2013-2014 even though the Oilers would have to pay him $1.25M that year.

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06-14-2011, 08:12 AM
  #37
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Here's what need's to happen then.

The Oilers need to bring in a 3rd goaltender with NHL experience a la Gerber last season. Bring that player to camp and if he is flat out better than Khabibulin they have to give major consideration to waiving Khabibulin and sending him to the farm.

If not that, they need to play Dubnyk 60+ games next season.

Losing on purpose is the most ridiculous argument I have ever heard.

My issue is that Khabibulin stinks. .890 svp last season. He's awful. I just want to see this team improve. He has shown nothing in his two season's with the Oilers to suggest he's going to turn it around. He's here for the pay-check.

Brule...why is everyone so certain he would get picked up on waivers? 1.85M for a guy who was absolutely terrible last season.

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06-15-2011, 06:28 AM
  #38
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Originally Posted by Hemsky4PM View Post
Here's what need's to happen then.

The Oilers need to bring in a 3rd goaltender with NHL experience a la Gerber last season. Bring that player to camp and if he is flat out better than Khabibulin they have to give major consideration to waiving Khabibulin and sending him to the farm.

If not that, they need to play Dubnyk 60+ games next season.

Losing on purpose is the most ridiculous argument I have ever heard.

My issue is that Khabibulin stinks. .890 svp last season. He's awful. I just want to see this team improve. He has shown nothing in his two season's with the Oilers to suggest he's going to turn it around. He's here for the pay-check.

Brule...why is everyone so certain he would get picked up on waivers? 1.85M for a guy who was absolutely terrible last season.
No arguments from me. The Oilers KNOW Khabi stinks and they KNOW Gerber is better than him... yet who played the games in net for the Oilers last season and who toiled away in the minors? If the Oilers had put Gerber in the net for ~50 games and Dubnyk for ~30 games I guarantee they would not be choosing at the #1 spot in the upcoming draft.

There simply was no reason to go "overboard" trying to improve the team when the entire goal of last season was to develop the young kids and get another lottery pick (and hopefully another #1)... and they succeeded on all fronts.

Brule certainly IS overpaid... overall he is no better than Cogs and should be making Cogs type money. He's a good 4th liner and always has been a speedy, energetic player with decent faceoff skills but limited overall consistency and hockey sense... perfect for a 4th line role and ~$1 million salary. If he can somehow stay healthy for ~60 games per season he is a good 4th line role player who can slide up into an occasional 3rd line role.

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06-15-2011, 06:30 AM
  #39
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Originally Posted by Dazed and Confused View Post
Buying out Khabibulin doesn't make sense. I'm not sure how the rules for buy-outs on +35 contracts work, but if it follows the traditional idea of cap hit over twice the remaining years, than it's a big no-no. Right now, Khabbi's contract runs out July 1, 2013, the same day as Hall's, Paajarvi's, Eberle's, and Whitney's, aka the day this teams going to need all the cap space it can get.

Why would the team put itself in a position where it has less cap to resign key players, when it can easily bite the bullet over the next two years with little issue?
Corrected that for you... I knew what you meant though.

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06-15-2011, 07:10 AM
  #40
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They need to bring in a 3rd goaltender a la Gerber. Make all the goaltenders earn their starts.

The team needs to improve. If you stink season after season it creates a culture of losing and before you know it you're the Flordida Panthers, NYI, Colombus, etc.

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06-15-2011, 08:03 AM
  #41
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Originally Posted by Hemsky4PM View Post
The team needs to improve. If you stink season after season it creates a culture of losing and before you know it you're the Flordida Panthers, NYI, Colombus, etc.
That's a consequence of bad management, not "a culture of losing."

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06-15-2011, 11:20 AM
  #42
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Edmonton has 4 or 5 good players out of 20.

- No 1st line center
- No 2nd line center (Gagner's a liability defensively)
- No 3rd line center (not even a single physical center center on the club)
- No physical top 6 wingers
- Only 1 good PP defender
- Only 1 top 2 defender
- Jones is probably the only good role player on the club
- Zero centers with a 50% face off record
- Only 2 top legit top 4 defenders
- Horrible PK

This club is **** with or without Bulin

This club is **** with or without DD

This club is **** with or without Jose Theodore

Just bite the bullet, folks. Katz's right hand man, Kevin Lowe said himself that the club is 4-6 years away from competing. Might as well take a sabbatical and check in a couple years from now if you can't stand a lottery hockey club.
I'd say you forgot about Horcoff. He's at least an excellent 3rd line Center, and I'd even call him a good 2nd liner.

and only 4 or 5 good players?
I'd say we have more than that, if put in their proper role in the lineup.
Eberle
Gagner
Cogliano (if he continues in his transition to a 2way player, PK specialist)
Hall
Hemsky
Horcoff
Jones
Paajvari
Gilbert
Smid
Whitney
DD
So I say we have at least 12 good players right now.


Last edited by Gord: 06-15-2011 at 11:29 AM.
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06-15-2011, 12:16 PM
  #43
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I'd say you forgot about Horcoff. He's at least an excellent 3rd line Center, and I'd even call him a good 2nd liner.
Horcoff gets more points than the average 3rd line player (largely because he plays with our best players and gets top PP time).

Take away the points and he's an average 3rd line player at best.

Zero physical play (something that 3rd line players normally bring). Even the Sedin twins would slap Horcoff around.

Poor on draws (most 3rd line centers are faceoff specialists).

Personally I would rather a 30 point 3rd line center that plays physical and can win draws.

Horcoff is a good utility bit but he's far from a dominant 3rd line player.

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06-15-2011, 12:46 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by GreasyGrinder View Post
Horcoff gets more points than the average 3rd line player (largely because he plays with our best players and gets top PP time).

Take away the points and he's an average 3rd line player at best.

Zero physical play (something that 3rd line players normally bring). Even the Sedin twins would slap Horcoff around.

Poor on draws (most 3rd line centers are faceoff specialists).

Personally I would rather a 30 point 3rd line center that plays physical and can win draws.

Horcoff is a good utility bit but he's far from a dominant 3rd line player.
If Horcoff was put into the role that most 3rd liners are I'm pretty sure you'd see his faceoff go up and he'd be a helluva shutdown guy to have out there.

Also there are plenty of 3rd line players that aren't physical. Belanger, Reasoner are examples. And for some reason Malhotra seems to be thought as some physical player yet he hits at the same rate as Horcoff.

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06-15-2011, 01:19 PM
  #45
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Ryan Jones had more hits last year than Shawn Horcoff has had in the last 5 years combined.. to me that's just crazy.

Maxim Lapierre 194 hits, 50.9 on draws
Michael Rupp 181 hits, 50.6 on draws
Matt Hendricks 169 hits, 53.1 on draws
Jarret Stoll 164 hits, 57.5 on draws
Samuel Pahlsson 162 hits, 52 on draws
Jerred Smithson 162 hits, 57.4 on draws
Derek MacKenzie 159 hits, 52 on draws
Martin Hanzal 147 hits, 50.3 on draws
Brandon Dubinsky 141 hits, 52.4 on draws
Vladimir Sobotka 137 hits, 51.6 on draws
Ryan Carter 133 hits, 50.6 on draws
Zack Smith 129 hits, 53.9 on draws
Paul Gaustad 128 hits, 59.8 on draws
Darren Helm 128 hits, 52.6 on draws
Ryan Kesler 126 hits, 57.4 on draws
Antoine Vermette 126 hits, 55.6 on draws
Gregory Campbell 119 hits, 51.7 on draws
Nate Thompson 115 hits, 54.2 on draws
Scott Nichol 114 hits, 59.4 on draws
Brooks Laich 113 hits, 51.3 on draws
Rod Pelley 113 hits, 52.8 on draws
Zenon Konopka 110 hits, 57.7 on draws
Dainius Zubrus 110 hits, 56.3 on draws
Tim Brent 104 hits, 52 on draws
David Steckel 104 hits, 62.3 on draws
Jesse Winchester 101 hits, 55.6 on draws













Shawn Horcoff 32 hits, 48.3 on draws



What's truly sad is RNH might be our most physical center.

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06-15-2011, 01:23 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by TheStig View Post
I got my figures from cap geek

also--you have to pay to replace them

there is no money to be saved by buying players out

and in the case of souray--a buy out counts for two years against the cap while another year on the farm doesn't--correct?
Correct but we aren't exactly jonesin for cap space in the next two years..

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06-15-2011, 02:26 PM
  #47
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Originally Posted by Hemsky4PM View Post
They need to bring in a 3rd goaltender a la Gerber. Make all the goaltenders earn their starts.

The team needs to improve. If you stink season after season it creates a culture of losing and before you know it you're the Flordida Panthers, NYI, Colombus, etc.
Ugh, the three goalie option. Unfortunately it seems like the best way to deal with Khabibulin short of sending him to the AHL. I would like to see Gerber here and getting some starts.

Brule: Let's keep him and hope he's healthy or waive him during the season. If he remains injured we can call a player up to replace him, and he's gone after this year.

Souray: Who? If we ignore him he will go away (after this year).

Foster: Maybe he will have a comeback from his personal issues, if not, then trade or waive.

Fraser: Waive.

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06-15-2011, 02:46 PM
  #48
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Originally Posted by GreasyGrinder View Post
Horcoff gets more points than the average 3rd line player (largely because he plays with our best players and gets top PP time).

Take away the points and he's an average 3rd line player at best.

Zero physical play (something that 3rd line players normally bring). Even the Sedin twins would slap Horcoff around.

Poor on draws (most 3rd line centers are faceoff specialists).

Personally I would rather a 30 point 3rd line center that plays physical and can win draws.

Horcoff is a good utility bit but he's far from a dominant 3rd line player.
I think you're wrong. he's proven to be more than just a utility player.

when he's been our only option, he's had to do 1st line duty, PP, PK, faceoffs, pretty well has had to do everything in every situation and has also gotten worn down by playing too many minutes.

put him in a proper role and a few less minutes and his faceoff % will go back up, I think he'd still get his 40-50 points and be more effective defensively and on the PK.

I'll say he would be an excellent 3rd liner and a good solid second liner, again, when the team can slot him properly in the line up.
same with Gilbert, for example.

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