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Blog series 1 - A case for Carcillo

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06-18-2011, 06:59 AM
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Blog series 1 - A case for Carcillo

For those of you who don't know I recently joined this message board and am a die hard Flyers fan. While I enjoy making your typical run of the mill posts and debating trades both hypothetical and actual on the trades and rumors forum my posting style is more suited for blog type work as writing has always been both a hobby and semi-profession for me for many years now.

Throughout the offseason I would like to bring you all a blog series discussing anything and everything Flyers related and the first piece I have written is about Dan Carcillo. Thanks.


A case for Carcillo

Fulton44

Saturday June 18th
6:59 am


Another offseason and another set of questions for the Philadelphia Flyers. While the headlines and discussion will heavily revolve around the goaltending position and rightfully so, it is the smaller stories buried deep into the headlines which will ultimately shape the Flyers roster and indentity heading into the 2011-2012 NHL season. As a result of the goalie carousel which hit an all time high during this past season's playoffs it will be easy to forget, ignore, or not even recognize other areas of the Flyers roster which need to improve. With a serious improvement to the goaltending position likely addressed in the way of soon to be 31 year old Russian netminder Ilya Bryzgalov the focus will shift to other areas of need for both the organization and roster.

The obvious next step for general manager Paul Holmgren is to find a way to not only shed the necessary cap space to fit in Bryzgalov, but to do so in a very particular way. Holmgren needs to trade the right pieces, get back the right assets, and re-tool the team in a certain way while getting that massive upgrade in goal. This is sure to be a difficult task. One thing I hope Holmgren doesn't lose sight of is the subtle fact that the Flyers need to add size and toughness to their team this summer, and mainly to the forward position. As each move (starting with the acquisition of Bryzgalov's rights and reported deal which appears to be agreed to in principle) leads to another move like dominos falling one by one Holmgren will need to construct a roster for the Flyers this summer with a careful and methodical approach.

As a Flyers fan for many years who has both seen and is aware of the organization's rish history, it was dissapointing to watch the Flyers out played in the physicality department more often than not this past season, and not only swept by the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Boston Bruins in the playoffs, but beaten up physically. I am aware that the game has changed and the need for "goons" and fighting in the NHL isn't what it once was, but size and team toughness is still a major element for success in this league. While I feel that this is an area that needs to be addressed by Holmgren this summer, it is certainly not an area that can be weakened. This is why (in addition to having a NTC) you won't see Scott Hartnell as one of the players dealt this summer to free up cap space. This is why you will likely see Matt Carle and not Braydon Coburn traded away from the defense. This is also why you will likely see prospects Tom Sestito and Zac Rinaldo have an opportunity to earn a fourth line spot in training camp. This brings me to Dan Carcillo.

If you read articles and blogs from the many individuals whose job it is to cover, comment on, and inform the fans of all things Philadelphia Flyers, restricted free agent Dan Carcillo is a name who is either not talked about, or simply dismissed as someone unlikely to be back with the Flyers for next season. I will be the first to say that I was personally dissapointed with Carcillo's 2010-2011 season. As early 2010 progressed, Carcillo found himself a trusted winger of head coach Peter Laviolette. He had earned a spot on a line with captain Mike Richards, and ended the season with 12 goals and 10 asists. This was the second time that Carcillo had shown some offensive potential in his career having put up 13 goals and 24 points in 57 games with the Phoenix Coyotes during the 2007-2008 season. Carcillo followed up that career high season with only 3 goals the following season an ended up traded to the Philadelphia Flyers for Scottie Upshall and a second round pick. Like that Scenario, Carcillo's strong 09-10 season was followed up by dissapointment the following year. Carcillo managed only 4 goals in 57 games last season, was in and out of the lineup for most of the season, and really batteled to find a consistent game both as a hockey player and pest / middleweight enforcer.

Moving forward I can understand why most people see Carcillo leaving the Flyers organization quietly this offseason, but I say not so fast. Carcillo is an enigma, but I think he deserves one more chance to develop into the player he can be with the Flyers both because he is still only 26 years old, and because of the dominos I mentioned earlier. The Flyers need to get bigger and more physical on the wing, not less. Subtracting Carcillo doesn't help in that area. Heavyweight enforcer Jody Shelley is a likely candidate to be waived due to a poor contract general manager Holmgren gave him, and rightfully so. So letting Carcillo go as well may not be in the Flyers best interests. Also, Ilya "cheeseBryz"galov is going to get some serious cheese. Unlike in years past the Flyers will be unable to trot out three lines full of scorers with high cap hits. It will be up to Holmgren to make sure that a couple of complimentary players with lower cap hits are in the mix on the forward group and that they are the right ones. Carcillo has had success in the past playing with Mike Richards. Let's just say for a minute that the Flyers are able to sign unrestricted free agent winger in the 1.5 - 2.0 million dollar cap hit neighborhood. The idea of a line featuring a newly added physical winger who can score 15-20 goals and defend, along with Richards and Carcillo is intriguing to me. Much more so than hoping that an average prospect like Eric Wellwood or Ben Holmstrom having an amazing camp, stealing a roster spot, and carrying that play well into the regular season. A third line of say, Raffi Torres or Chad LaRose, Mike Richards, and Dan Carcillo has the potential to be a shut down type defensive line, be extremely difficult to play against from a physicality standpoint, and produce a fair amount of offense.

Ultimately difficult decisions will need to be made. Carcillo is an enigmatic player coming off of a bad season, and players like Carcillo often have short shelf lives with their teams as their "act" can wear thin over time. If I had to guess I would agree with most fans, beat writers, and bloggers that Dan Carcillo will likely not be back with the Philadelphia Flyers for the 2011-2012 season. He will likely be moved for whatever pick Holmgren can manage to get him, likely a 3rd-5th round pick. That being said I want to make it very clear that due to his physical play on the wing, past success here and with captain Richards, low cap hit, and the flashes that he has shown in the past that that might not be the best move for the Flyers. Sometimes the devil you know is better than the devil you don't know and with tough decisions ahead and a great challenge to put together a balanced roster that is within the NHL's salary cap with a new high priced goalie in the mix keeping Carcillo might make a lot more sense than the majority of people think.


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06-18-2011, 07:49 AM
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FORWARDS
James Van Riemsdyk ($1.654m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Daniel Briere ($6.500m)
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m) / Jeff Carter ($5.272m) / Andreas Nodl ($0.892m)
Raffi Torres ($1.750m) / Mike Richards ($5.750m) / Daniel Carcillo ($1.075m)
Tom Sestito ($0.635m) / Blair Betts ($0.700m) / Darroll Powe ($0.756m)

DEFENSEMEN
Chris Pronger ($4.921m) / Erik Gustafsson ($0.900m)
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m) / Braydon Coburn ($3.200m)
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Sean O'Donnell ($1.000m)
Oskars Bartulis ($0.600m)

GOALTENDERS
Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.500m) / Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.750m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS
SALARY CAP: $62,400,000;
CAP PAYROLL: $61,140,905;
BONUSES: $1,700,000
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $1,259,095

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06-18-2011, 07:54 AM
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Raffi Torres ($1.750m) / Mike Richards ($5.750m) / Daniel Carcillo ($1.075m)

?

Richards would be bailing out his two wingers on the PK every 2nd shift.

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06-18-2011, 08:33 AM
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That is a pretty horrendous third line. Count me in as not a fan of being Sean OD back either. He lost the plot in the final 25+ games of the season.

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06-18-2011, 09:50 AM
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Dan Carcillo is not a "shut-down type." That's just not the guy's game. He doesn't even kill penalties.

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06-18-2011, 10:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spongolium View Post
That is a pretty horrendous third line.
I can understand someone prefering a different direction, or even just not liking the proposed line. However, calling it horrendous seems like a gross embellishment, and at least if you are going to say that how about providing what you think the solution is.

Anyway, that line has all of the makings of a line which will be a downright pain in the ass to play against and be able to produce their share offensively.

No need to explain Richards.

Torres gives us some added size at the wing position that we desperately need at 6'0 and 220+ pounds. He is also one of the best hitting wingers in the league and is good for 15-20 goals.

If Carcillo on the line is your issue I can understand. Torres and Richards is the makings of a great third line though, and again, what is your solution.

I suppose they could put Nodl on that line who is a very good defensive forward with 10-15 goal production and sign a UFA winger to play with Carter OR throw Matt Read or Eric Wellwood into the mix.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Spongolium View Post
Count me in as not a fan of being Sean OD back either. He lost the plot in the final 25+ games of the season.
I can see your point, but again, give solutions dude. Who would you bring in?

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06-18-2011, 10:09 AM
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Would much rather see Sestito than Carcillo this year.

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06-18-2011, 10:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GKJ View Post
Dan Carcillo is not a "shut-down type." That's just not the guy's game. He doesn't even kill penalties.
I never said he was nor did I say the line would be a pure checking or shutdown line, but more a physical line that can score and provides a little bit of everything.

Would a third line of Torres, Richards, and Nodl be a better mix or fit for the Flyers?

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06-18-2011, 10:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fulton44 View Post
I never said he was nor did I say the line would be a pure checking or shutdown line, but more a physical line that can score and provides a little bit of everything.

Would a third line of Torres, Richards, and Nodl be a better mix or fit for the Flyers?
Nodl certainly has more defensive capability than Carcillo. He's great along the boards too. Either way, we really should look at a few of our AHLers before we think about Torres. Wellwood, Testwuide, Sestito, just to name a few.

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06-18-2011, 10:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fulton44 View Post
I never said he was nor did I say the line would be a pure checking or shutdown line, but more a physical line that can score and provides a little bit of everything.

Would a third line of Torres, Richards, and Nodl be a better mix or fit for the Flyers?
Absolutely. Torres is a more potent offensive player, and bring the same type of physicality. My biggest concern with Torres is the bullseye he's painted on his own back (which means he'll fit right in), and the toll of a long playoff run has done to him, just like it did for this team (including Versteeg). Nodl himself projects as a third line player. Torres is a decent guy who got burned because he got traded to Buffalo last year and did absolutely nothing. Not many guys are like Carcillo and make over a million dollars.

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06-18-2011, 10:44 AM
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Sorry didn't have much time earlier.

Basically, on the third line you have a problem. I proposed earlier in the offseason as richards being the third line centre and being used as a defensive expert. That didn't go down well.

Personally, if we are looking at a defensive line, then nodl fits that mold quite perfectly. Defensively responsible, cheap and can pot the occasional goal.

For the second line, we then need to bring in a goal scoring option. Matt Read could be given a chance, but only on a good pre-season. Or we could look at

Gagne - 2-2.5 million coming back.
Jamie Langenbrunner - 1.5- 2 million
Erik Cole( personal favourite) 2.5 million
Jussi Jokinen 2.5 million
Mike Grier - 1-1.5 million

Or Kris Versteeg - Basing upon the salary cap being at 63.5 million

James Van Riemsdyk ($1.654m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Daniel Briere ($6.500m)
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m) / Jeff Carter ($5.272m) / Matt Read ($0.900m)
Raffi Torres ($1.750m) / Mike Richards ($5.750m) / Andreas Nodl ($0.892m)
Tom Sestito ($0.635m) / Blair Betts ($0.700m) / Darroll Powe ($0.756m)

Thats what i would look at.

As for the defensive problem. I can't really comment on defensemen, i don't really know enough about the players around the league. But OD was done last year. That much was clear.

Edit: you responded before i wrote it out


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06-18-2011, 10:56 AM
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no thanks

Carcillo's ship has sailed

he shouldnt be brought back unless it's for <$750k

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06-18-2011, 11:00 AM
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It's a piece and I am finding/making an argument for Carcillo. It's a devil's advocate piece basically, to generate some discussion.

Thanks for the feedback guys.

Torres / LaRose - Richards - Nodl as the third line?

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06-18-2011, 11:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stockholm Syndrome View Post
Nodl certainly has more defensive capability than Carcillo. He's great along the boards too. Either way, we really should look at a few of our AHLers before we think about Torres. Wellwood, Testwuide, Sestito, just to name a few.
Sestito is a fourth liner who I have projected to compete with Rinaldo for a fourth line spot. He is nowhere near ready to challenge for a third line spot with Mike Richards.

There is basically only room for one forward spot between Read, Wellwood, Holmstrom and Testwuide. There will be about 1.5 - 2.0 million to sign a free agent winger and they are going to have to. Losing Leino and Versteeg hurts the depth on this team and they can only rely on rookies so much, especially when we aren't exactly loaded with standout prospects.

JVR - Giroux - Briere
Hartnell - Carter - Read/Wellwood/Holmstrom/Testwuide
Torres / LaRose - Richards - Nodl
Sestito / Rinaldo - Betts - Powe
Godard / Janssen

I think we'll see something pretty similar to that when all is said and done.

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06-18-2011, 11:11 AM
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Originally Posted by GKJ View Post
Dan Carcillo is not a "shut-down type." That's just not the guy's game. He doesn't even kill penalties.
Yep Time for him to move on. Lets get some new blood in here.

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06-18-2011, 11:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spongolium View Post

For the second line, we then need to bring in a goal scoring option. Matt Read could be given a chance, but only on a good pre-season. Or we could look at

Gagne - 2-2.5 million coming back.
Jamie Langenbrunner - 1.5- 2 million
Erik Cole( personal favourite) 2.5 million
Jussi Jokinen 2.5 million
Mike Grier - 1-1.5 million
Langenbrunner or Cole on short term deals for the mentioned salary would be awsome. However, I have a feeling that their market value will be well around 3M.

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06-18-2011, 11:52 AM
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Carcillo has regressed badly since he got here. i think this organization views Rinaldo as a cheaper option, and with Shelley here and going nowhere hes as good as gone.

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06-18-2011, 11:56 AM
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Langenbrunner or Cole on short term deals for the mentioned salary would be awsome. However, I have a feeling that their market value will be well around 3M.
I agree, however the market is a funny thing. Look at Raffi Torres last year. 20 goal scorer getting 1 million. It's crazy like that sometimes. If we could get one of these guys on a 1-3 year deal i would be over the moon.

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06-18-2011, 12:36 PM
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something to keep in mind, there is no bonus cushion this year because it's the last year of the cba.

jvr's, and potentially bob's, bonuses will count from day one.

I don't know what happens if the cba gets extended in-season but for now you have to add that "Bonus" line to "Payroll" line for an accurate representation.

bottom line: that lineup isn't cap compliant.

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06-18-2011, 12:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spongolium View Post
That is a pretty horrendous third line. Count me in as not a fan of being Sean OD back either. He lost the plot in the final 25+ games of the season.
Nearly every D did because they were burnt out from the system Lavy runs. OD was by far the worst though and that was because of his age. He would be an awesome D to have if we played more of a defensive system like Boston, but we don't.

Carcillo on the other hand I think would be better off on a different team also. He can be one of the best pests in the league if given the opportunity. Here he just got held back and then all his exaggerating the refs got fed up with and they wouldn't even call real penalties against him hardly anymore it seemed. He needs a change of scenery.

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06-18-2011, 12:44 PM
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Cole would be the best to pick up, but we would have to shed some salary from the forward spot for him because I could see him getting about 3.2 a season. The guys a beast.

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06-18-2011, 01:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fully spectrumed View Post
something to keep in mind, there is no bonus cushion this year because it's the last year of the cba.

jvr's, and potentially bob's, bonuses will count from day one.

I don't know what happens if the cba gets extended in-season but for now you have to add that "Bonus" line to "Payroll" line for an accurate representation.

bottom line: that lineup isn't cap compliant.
Yes it is, the bonuses are already included.

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06-18-2011, 01:28 PM
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Erik Cole is going to cost more than 2.5 million, possibly a lot more. He was already making 2.9 million and just had one of his best seasons. He will get AT LEAST 3 million and probably upwards of 3.5+ million.

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06-18-2011, 01:29 PM
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I like Carcillo a lot and I'd contend the 2nd LBC was one of the most effective 4th lines I have ever seen, I don't see him coming back. He's probably going to be looking for a little too much money, and this organization seems to be infatuated with Rinaldo, who has a much lower cap hit.

As for the third line I'd love to see Versteeg/Holmstrom/Testwuide and Nodl anchored by a true third line face-off specialist center. JVR-Richads-Giroux and Hartnell-Carter-Briere could be one of the best 1-2 punches in the league

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06-18-2011, 01:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 10KeithLeClair25 View Post
I like Carcillo a lot and I'd contend the 2nd LBC was one of the most effective 4th lines I have ever seen, I don't see him coming back. He's probably going to be looking for a little too much money, and this organization seems to be infatuated with Rinaldo, who has a much lower cap hit.

As for the third line I'd love to see Versteeg/Holmstrom/Testwuide and Nodl anchored by a true third line face-off specialist center. JVR-Richads-Giroux and Hartnell-Carter-Briere could be one of the best 1-2 punches in the league
Versteeg isnt responsible enough defensively to be on a checking line. Plus hte idea of having 2 rookies on your shut-down line isnt very appealing

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