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Howard Eskin of 610 WIP: Front Office Open to Trading Richards or Carter

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06-20-2011, 11:08 AM
  #351
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Sorry it took a few days to get back. When I first logged in on Friday or Saturday, it took me like an hour to figure out what the password on the account was. Embarrassing.

Here are answers to a few questions that I saw thrown my way:

1) No, I don't believe Carter to be any sort of distraction in the locker room at all. From everything that I see, he is generally a well-liked guy that largely keeps to himself. He doesn't always have a lot to say, and that's not just with the media. I think more than anything, people just look at him as an obvious cap casualty because of his salary (it fits) and the fact that his NTC doesn't kick in yet. But I'd still be really surprised if they moved him.

2) I haven't heard much in the way of Versteeg or Carle, to be honest. I think Carle has a lot of value, personally, and with Chris Pronger and Kimmo Timonen's questionable health and age, it would probably be in the Flyers' best interest to keep him. I don't know how many takers there would be on Versteeg, unless it is a team in dire straits to get to the $48 mil cap floor. Florida has just 11 players signed for next year at $18 mil. They have some spending to do, as do a lot of teams. The one benefit about Versteeg is that this is the final year of his deal. He would be more attractive if he would be a UFA instead of an RFA when it is up. Who knows.

I'll check back for more later. I'll also have stuff in the paper every day this week as I'll be trying to dig up a scoop in Las Vegas at the Awards and then heading to the Draft in MPLS.

frank

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06-20-2011, 11:10 AM
  #352
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Oh ok, so because Datsyuk improved in the playoffs as he got older, Carter will as well? I forgot that every player does that in their career

I didn't know it was that simple


oh and btw, Gagne was never a playoff plerformer with us either, aside from 2 series (TB in 04, BOS in 10), he was usually invisible
Generally speaking, yes, it is. Over large samples pretty much everyone reverts to mean.

It isn't just Datsyuk, and it isn't just hockey.

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06-20-2011, 11:12 AM
  #353
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so because the guy hasnt performed at all in the playoffs because he's always injured, you want to keep him around because the odds our in our favour for him to turn it around? LOL
unbelievable
Based on your logic, Detroit would have dealt Datsyuk away... yet you think it's "unbelievable" that armed with a pretty much rock solid historical argument people want to hold onto Carter?

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06-20-2011, 11:12 AM
  #354
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Hook. Line. Sinker.

Datsyuk's first 42 playoff games: 15 pts (0.36 PPG)

Carter's first 47 playoff games: 21 pts (0.45 PPG)

Carter was also dealing with significant injuries for most of those games.

We could do this exercise with some other players. How about the Sedins?

Henrik Sedin's first 43 playoff games: 20 pts

Daniel Sedin's first 43 playoff games: 18 pts

How about Gagne, who is now known for scoring "big goals?"

Simon Gagne first 41 playoff games: 18 pts


Last edited by CharlieGirl: 06-20-2011 at 11:21 AM.
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06-20-2011, 11:14 AM
  #355
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Generally speaking, yes, it is. Over large samples pretty much everyone reverts to mean.

It isn't just Datsyuk, and it isn't just hockey.
you keep sitting there a telling yourself that

and when jeff carter continues to not come up big in the playoffs, just keep repeating to yourself "he'll come around...only XX more years left on his contract, it is bound to happen eventually"

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06-20-2011, 11:25 AM
  #356
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you keep sitting there a telling yourself that

and when jeff carter continues to not come up big in the playoffs, just keep repeating to yourself "he'll come around...only XX more years left on his contract, it is bound to happen eventually"
so who replaces his 35 plus goals, his best faceoff percentage on the team, his solid defensive play.
maybe you need to go back to Flyerphans or whatever that site is and talk hockey with cartsiephan

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06-20-2011, 11:27 AM
  #357
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you keep sitting there a telling yourself that

and when jeff carter continues to not come up big in the playoffs, just keep repeating to yourself "he'll come around...only XX more years left on his contract, it is bound to happen eventually"
You keep sitting there in delusional ignorance... I guess it's working for you.

Joe Thornton's playoffs must have been mind blowing for you, huh?

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06-20-2011, 11:36 AM
  #358
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Thanks for the update, Frank!

As for Carter not being a playoff performer...right. Let's see any other player put up nice numbers with broken feet, separated shoulders, or sprained knees. Those are injuries he generally picked up while working to make plays...you know, the opposite of being lazy.

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06-20-2011, 11:39 AM
  #359
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Thanks for the update, Frank!

As for Carter not being a playoff performer...right. Let's see any other player put up nice numbers with broken feet, separated shoulders, or sprained knees. Those are injuries he generally picked up while working to make plays...you know, the opposite of being lazy.
You're making way too much sense for this thread. I'm banning you.

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06-20-2011, 11:42 AM
  #360
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You're making way too much sense for this thread. I'm banning you.
hahaha...you're bringing a spoon to a gunfight here, friend.

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06-20-2011, 11:43 AM
  #361
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
Thanks for the update, Frank!

As for Carter not being a playoff performer...right. Let's see any other player put up nice numbers with broken feet, separated shoulders, or sprained knees. Those are injuries he generally picked up while working to make plays...you know, the opposite of being lazy.
IIRC wasn't a "healthy" carter an offensive force in our series against washington and montreal in '08? he scored two huge goals to set the pace in game 3 (or 4?) against washington and basically scored the series winning goal against montreal (upshall tipped his shot). looking at his stats right now it says he had 11 points in 17 games, but everyone was shut down offensively against pittsburgh. this, mind you, was before his career year in 08-09. carter has potential to be a force in the stanley cup playoffs. it'd be a shame to throw him away only to see him succeed somewhere else.

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06-20-2011, 11:45 AM
  #362
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
Thanks for the update, Frank!

As for Carter not being a playoff performer...right. Let's see any other player put up nice numbers with broken feet, separated shoulders, or sprained knees. Those are injuries he generally picked up while working to make plays...you know, the opposite of being lazy.
Its pretty comical how the Jeff Carter hate is around here. The guy has had some bad luck when it comes to injuries. Not the injuries that come up because of being out of shape or whatever. Just freak bad ones. I am by no means Carters biggest fan but the guy brings a lot to the table for this hockey club. People want to get rid of him, but most cant come up with a viable solution to replace him.

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06-20-2011, 11:45 AM
  #363
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IIRC wasn't a "healthy" carter an offensive force in our series against washington and montreal in '08? he scored two huge goals to set the pace in game 3 (or 4?) against washington and basically scored the series winning goal against montreal (upshall tipped his shot). looking at his stats right now it says he had 11 points in 17 games, but everyone was shut down offensively against pittsburgh. this, mind you, was before his career year in 08-09. carter has potential to be a force in the stanley cup playoffs. it'd be a shame to throw him away only to see him succeed somewhere else.
That's likely exactly what would happen.

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06-20-2011, 11:57 AM
  #364
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it's funny how thick those O&B glasses are on this board. criticized one supposed "star player" and all hell breaks loose

enjoy 11 more years carter shooting from the corner, hitting the goalie in the crest and shooting it high and wide

but don't worry, carter will be in full form during the season, scoring 30+ while all you guys sit there and expect it to continue when it matters

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06-20-2011, 12:01 PM
  #365
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Originally Posted by RJ8812 View Post
it's funny how thick those O&B glasses are on this board. criticized one supposed "star player" and all hell breaks loose

enjoy 11 more years carter shooting from the corner, hitting the goalie in the crest and shooting it high and wide

but don't worry, carter will be in full form during the season, scoring 30+ while all you guys sit there and expect it to continue when it matters
yeah Jeff Carter is the main problem on this team.

GTFO

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06-20-2011, 12:01 PM
  #366
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Originally Posted by RJ8812 View Post
it's funny how thick those O&B glasses are on this board. criticized one supposed "star player" and all hell breaks loose

enjoy 11 more years carter shooting from the corner, hitting the goalie in the crest and shooting it high and wide

but don't worry, carter will be in full form during the season, scoring 30+ while all you guys sit there and expect it to continue when it matters
You think a reversion to mean argument involves O&B glasses?

I would (and have) make the same argument about any player whose playoff statistics were notably below his career mean production. Similarly, players with well above mean production in the playoffs will, almost surely, have a fall from grace.

Reversion to mean works both ways.

On top of all of this, there is a rather large body of empirical data supporting "our" opinion and completely refuting yours.

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06-20-2011, 12:02 PM
  #367
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yeah Jeff Carter is the main problem on this team.

GTFO
awww, am I criticizing your fav player?

i also never said Carter was the biggest problem on this team. I just believe he would be the best asset to trade and we would be better off without him in the long run

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06-20-2011, 12:06 PM
  #368
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awww, am I criticizing your fav player?

i also never said Carter was the biggest problem on this team. I just believe he would be the best asset to trade and we would be better off without him in the long run

quit actling like carstie.
you want to get rid of Carter, but you never want to come up with a viable solution ro replace him. He is not my favorite player, but I also am not blinded by hate.

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06-20-2011, 12:08 PM
  #369
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quit actling like carstie.
you want to get rid of Carter, but you never want to come up with a viable solution ro replace him. He is not my favorite player, but I also am not blinded by hate.
losing Carter's 35 goals doesnt mean **** if you have players like Giroux and JVR (and others) increasing their goal totals. Plus playing better defensively and giving up LESS GOALS solves the problem as well

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06-20-2011, 12:12 PM
  #370
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losing Carter's 35 goals doesnt mean **** if you have players like Giroux and JVR (and others) increasing their goal totals. Plus playing better defensively and giving up LESS GOALS solves the problem as well
Here's a novel idea...

Keep the 35 goal scorer, Giroux and JVR increase their goal totals, play better defense to give up less goals and our Goal Differential gets even better.

There is salary to be shed that doesn't involve your leading goal scorer.

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06-20-2011, 12:13 PM
  #371
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Here's a novel idea...

Keep the 35 goal scorer, Giroux and JVR increase their goal totals, play better defense to give up less goals and our Goal Differential gets even better.

There is salary to be shed that doesn't involve your leading goal scorer.
ahh i really like this idea!

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06-20-2011, 12:13 PM
  #372
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losing Carter's 35 goals doesnt mean **** if you have players like Giroux and JVR (and others) increasing their goal totals. Plus playing better defensively and giving up LESS GOALS solves the problem as well
Wait, when did Carter become a poor defensive player. He was seventh in selke votes one year.

You are fighting a losing battle. It's simple, Carter is more valuable to this team than off it. I don't even like the guy, but 35 goals and solid in his own end is something we can't lose.

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06-20-2011, 12:14 PM
  #373
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Here's a novel idea...

Keep the 35 goal scorer, Giroux and JVR increase their goal totals, play better defense to give up less goals and our Goal Differential gets even better.

There is salary to be shed that doesn't involve your leading goal scorer.
OR here's an even better idea

trade Carter now before his NTC kicks in while his value is high so that when it comes time to re-sign Giroux & JVR to long-term contracts, we actually can and wont have to trade two players that have already outperformed Carter in the playoffs in half the appearances

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06-20-2011, 12:16 PM
  #374
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losing Carter's 35 goals doesnt mean **** if you have players like Giroux and JVR (and others) increasing their goal totals. Plus playing better defensively and giving up LESS GOALS solves the problem as well
Well, Carter was a BIG part of why Giroux's line was passable defensively. Giroux is always going to struggle a bit defensively in this league. He's giving away a lot of size (not such a factor offensively, but definitely a factor defensively), plays with a very short stick (big factor defensively), etc. etc.

I also wouldn't expect Giroux's goal totals to leap up all that much from the 25 he posted this past year.

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06-20-2011, 12:18 PM
  #375
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OR here's an even better idea

trade Carter now before his NTC kicks in while his value is high so that when it comes time to re-sign Giroux & JVR to long-term contracts, we actually can and wont have to trade two players that have already outperformed Carter in the playoffs in half the appearances
A better idea would be to stop using the playoffs as an analytical lens like this since it has been proven to be an extremely poor way to do analysis.

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