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[CBJ/MTL] Wisniewski's rights for a Cond. 7th (5th if he signs in CBJ) (post #302)

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06-20-2011, 10:04 AM
  #101
Miller Time
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
First of all, 27 year olds don't "leave money on the table", even to re-sign with their club. Second of all, I think there have been plenty of UFAs in the past who have expressed desire to re-sign with their clubs and yet never ended up actually putting pen to paper until much after the end of the season. Time passed should not be interpreted as negotiations/lack thereof "dragging on" unless you know more about the situation than, simply, time has passed.

OJ, i'm kind of surprised by your opening statement b/c i tend to agree with your takes, and rarely disagree completely with your rationales...

But

"27 year olds don't leave money on the table"...

you can't be serious?

Glencross "left money on the table" to stay in Calgary this offseason... Bieksa all but stated he would take less money to stay in VCR (remains to be seen, but that's a far more firm commitment than "I like playing here")... both are 27-28 i believe.

pretty much all of Detroits top players took less money to re-sign with the team (datsyuk/zetterberg/franzen were all late-20's when they signed their current, red wings friendly deals).

i'm pretty sure you could go back to every offseason since the cap came into place, and find at least 1-2 UFA signings where the player took less to stay where he was, and the deal was done very soon after the team finished playing (usually with some sort of NMC/NTC)

and to be clear, i'm not saying it's the norm, far from it, but the exceptions (of which there are a few each of season) clearly show that when a player is serious about wanting to stay put, and the team wants him, they find a way and they usually do it well before the deadline.

the re-signing UFA deals that get done late, or even after July 1st, tend to be with much lesser players, not with big $$/big role guys.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
Next, as someone whose posts I quite frequently "+1", I'm quite surprised at how quickly you're willing to assume one thing in the case of Markov, but another in Wisniewski's case. Call it a gut feeling, but it kinda reeks of some kind of bias.
i don't know that bias is the right word... Markov, imo, a player that the habs obviously NEED to re-sign. there are no other dmen of his caliber available now, and they rarely do become available. The injury is a risk, but with our D situation it's a risk we need to take (imo).

from that perspective, the only way i can make sense of it taking this long is b/c of the injury risk and both sides trying to work out how much that should impact the $$/term.

for Wiz, a player that has only a short history with the organization, and while he was effective for us, certainly didn't establish himself as a "must have" (at least not imo), i don't see the team being willing to pay him the UFA market premium, and if they aren't, it would only make sense for them to have given him 1-2 offers and not been very aggressive to get him to sign. On his side, no matter how much fun he had in the 3 months he was in town, do you really think he'd turn his back on 500K? 1M? 1.5M? more that could be on the table in about ten days?

your comment about "no 27 year old's..." reflects the reality that most people, in that position, would want to find out their maximum worth and sign for that... i agree, and that's why I think Wiz not being signed by now is a good indication that he will test the waters, and if he does, he is (or should be) as good as gone b/c we SHOULD NOT pay him the UFA bonanza some team will given his 50pts this past season.


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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
Next, as much "sense" as it seems to make to lock up your UFAs quickly, you'll notice that a lot of teams haven't quite put pen to paper with theirs, so I don't know why you're choosing to read so much into it in this case. And lastly, most of the kids in this year's draft class haven't even played any hockey for weeks. Any evaluation is likely pretty much complete, and it's just down to any significant impact any of the combine or interview results had. Not like PG has tonnes of time on his hands these days, but I wouldn't mistake patience for hesitation/reluctance on his part. There are lots of options around the league that he should still be keeping an eye on, regardless of his ultimate/primary intentions.
really?

How many teams have impending UFA's in the 4M$+ range that:
A- the team aggressively wants back
b- the player has stated he wants to stay there

i can't think of many, VCR has a few, but they just finished playing a few days ago so it's a completely different situation.

otherwise, i think in most cases any "to-be" premium UFA who doesn't get signed by mid-june, the player ends up testing the market and signing elsewhere.

From a pure time management pov, don't you approach projects/work by tackling the ones you perceive as the most important priorities first? Why would PG, or any other GM, operate differently.

the draft and the UFAgency are two of the most important priorities for any GM (after re-signing- or trying to- the players you want, of course), it would make no sense at all for PG to let the Wiz file hang around unresolved unless:
- he's already tried and realized the player wants more than he's willing to give
- he doesn't want him back
- the player made it clear (either vocally, or by his contract demand) that he wants a premium UFA deal and is not interested in signing for anything less.

all 3 cases point to Wiz being gone.

i'd like to see him back, but at this point, if I had to bet, I'd bet on him signing elsewhere on July, but I'd be more than happy to be wrong on that as long as it's not a 4.5M$+ contract.




Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
We've got plenty of cap space (well, more than enough anyway), and you admit that we need some "shoring up"/improvement in our top 4, yet you would sign players primarily on their price tag? I'd really like to see a list of players who are available out there who are A) an improvement over Wisniewski, and/or B) cheaper than Wisniewski without also representing a negative difference in level of ability/play. Not even Pitkanen fits either of those categories. I'd rather have Pitkanen if they were the same money, but I don't even think he's "available" in reality, nor would I expect them to come at equal price tags. Anyone else you can add to your current list of one "likely available" target?
I'd pay more for Pitkanen, Bieksa, and possibly Brewer... or would prefer paying them 4.5,5, 5.5 then paying Wiz that much.

I'd take Babchuk, White, Kaberle for <4M$ over Wiz at >4M$

and if neither scenario worked out, then I'd rather see the team conserve the extra cap space and sign a vet in the 2.5-3.5 range (Hamrlik, Hannan, Jovanovski, ericsson...)

it's a mistake to think that just b/c we CAN spend to the cap every year that we absolutely should or need to. The 09 summer was a good example of how bad you can screw up when you opt for the "quick fix".

I'm all for being bold and aggressive, at times, but underlying every move the team makes there should be a concerted "long-term" plan/vision that the moves contribute to.

I don't personally view Wiz as a top-pairing dman, and handing out multiple years on a 4.5M$+ contract for a player who only once in his career has ever contributed anywhere near that kind of value (and whose play, even while pilling up the points, was frequently porous defensively) isn't wise imo.

especially not when we have Weber (i'd argue that Weber could come close enough to Wiz's offensive production if given the same minutes/role), and Emelin (who, if he establishes himself as an NHLer, will bring more physicality and likely better defensive play).

With two young, cheap, players both potentially ready this season to be part of our top-6, no need to break the bank on a player like Wiz.


when the "homerun" move is there, you have to go for it, otherwise I'd rather see PG stick to his plan (assuming he has one... given his/habs management's "minimal disclosure" approach, any suggestion of a clear plan existing is purely speculation).

Wiz at a UFA premium price, on a team that is far more than a "Wiz" away from cup contention, doesn't make sense, I hope/suspect PG sees it the same way.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
If you simply resist the notion of him signing long term, that's fine. Neither of us knows what his term demands are though, let alone his salary demands, at this point (we can expect 3-4 years, roughly $4.5-5M, but we're still speculating). Nor do we know what PG has put in front of him, if anything. He is only 27, and as long as he avoids injury there is no reasonable basis to expect him to bring a level of play below what we saw last year any time soon. I don't care if he doesn't score 50 points next year as long as he's part of one of the strongest pairings in the conference. Put him with Markov (I'd move Gorges to the left and put him with PK on the second pairing, myself), and I think it'd be exactly that.


at 27, Wiz has never before shown the level of production he pulled off this year...

a few things about that production:
- lot's of PP pts
- lot's of points as a first pairing dman on the woeful Islanders
- lot's of points on a Montreal team where he got prime offensive opportunities (pp/offensive zone face-offs), which will be diminished at least somewhat by the return of a healthy markov (of course, if we can't sign Markov, Wiz's potential value to the team jumps up considerably).


I think, wether it's here or on any other playoff team with an established first pairing, Wiz will be hard pressed to replicate his production from this past season.

barring a Gomez-esque implosion, he should still be good for 30+pts, but is a 30-35pt dman who is average (at best) in the defensive zone good value @ 4.5-5M?

and relying on him being paired with Markov to produce is precisely why you don't want to pay him 4.5-5M$ (or more?). Habs didn't want to pay Souray in that ballpark (and imo he brought more to the table than Wiz does, overall, but that's another discussion), and preferred spending that money on Hamrlik, with essentially the same brain thrust in control (PG was pro scout at the time), hard to see them changing their preference now.

- no cap, no problem...
-team with lot's of cap flexibility, no problem... (and while the habs have cap "space", i'd argue that their flexibility is very limited given how many big overpaid players we already have... we have space, but we have huge holes to fill both upfront and on defense, one bad signing keeps us mired in cap hell for that much longer).


and just so that it's clear, I'd love to see Wiz back, and if we didn't already have so many bad veteran contracts on the books, I'd probably be less hesitant to get behind paying him in that 4.5-5M$ range... but our roster is what it is, and unless PG pulls a few rabbits out of his hat, the big contracts aren't going anywhere anytime soon, making it all the more important to be smart with the contracts we throw around, even if it means leaning a bit more on young players like Weber, Emelin, Carle? or making Spacek earn some of that 3.8M$ we're paying him.

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06-21-2011, 10:44 AM
  #102
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We'll just have to agree to disagree, because the walls of text are getting enormous.

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06-21-2011, 11:03 AM
  #103
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Was hoping you'd both start re-quoting each other repeatedly.

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06-21-2011, 11:08 AM
  #104
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The more I think about it, the more I think signing Wisniewski to play as a #3 offensive d-man might NOT be a good investment if we want him to put up the numbers to go with his contract. We'd be better off investing in a more defensive-minded d-man like Brewer.

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06-21-2011, 11:09 AM
  #105
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i have a feeling Wiz ends up in detroit

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06-21-2011, 11:24 AM
  #106
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Originally Posted by Kingbobert View Post
i have a feeling Wiz ends up in detroit
And I have a feeling that if we let him walk we'll be spending assets at some point next season to replace him.

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06-21-2011, 11:27 AM
  #107
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And I have a feeling that if we let him walk we'll be spending assets at some point next season to replace him.
I've got the same feeling.

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06-21-2011, 11:44 AM
  #108
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Originally Posted by JimmyDarmody View Post
And I have a feeling that if we let him walk we'll be spending assets at some point next season to replace him.
Not only this but I wouldn't be suprised if he ends up with the Bruins. I've read they will get rid of Kaberle. The Wiz with the Bruins would be a nightmare for us. He already has this gritty side. I don't want to see him with the Bruins.

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06-21-2011, 11:50 AM
  #109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
I've got the same feeling.
Unfortunately history is on our side.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OpenIceHit View Post
Not only this but I wouldn't be suprised if he ends up with the Bruins. I've read they will get rid of Kaberle. The Wiz with the Bruins would be a nightmare for us. He already has this gritty side. I don't want to see him with the Bruins.
I was looking at their salary breakdown last night, pretty scary to think they have cap room to work with and that's without taking Savard's cap hit out of the equation.

And they have a top-10 pick this year to add a guy like Murphy/Beaulieu.

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06-21-2011, 11:52 AM
  #110
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Originally Posted by JimmyDarmody View Post
Unfortunately history is on our side.



I was looking at their salary breakdown last night, pretty scary to think they have cap room to work with and that's without taking Savard's cap hit out of the equation.

And they have a top-10 pick this year to add a guy like Murphy/Beaulieu.
Their GM is a god!

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06-21-2011, 12:19 PM
  #111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
I've got the same feeling.
I'll third this. Wisniewski with Lidstrom would be terrifying. You would think after Souray and Streit's departure we would learn something...

Quote:
Originally Posted by OpenIceHit View Post
Their GM is a god!
To think, had they lost to us. He could have been fired.

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06-21-2011, 12:25 PM
  #112
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does anyone else find it weird that we have gotten absolutely zero information about wiz since the end of the season?

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06-21-2011, 12:25 PM
  #113
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Don't get me wrong, I love Wiz, but it seems like a risky move to have Markov, Subban and Wiz as our top 3. I think we need more balance by adding a dman like Bieksa or Brewer instead of Wiz.

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06-21-2011, 12:28 PM
  #114
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To think, had they lost to us. He could have been fired.
But they didn't! They won the cup. They can keep the same roster, resign Marchand at 2M, the Wiz at 5M and they still have 3M left with a 22 player roster. And I'm not even counting Savard out.

And he would not have been fired. Claude Julien yes.

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06-21-2011, 12:45 PM
  #115
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Im in the bring back the Wiz camp if you can, up to $5M. This is a team that dies without puck movement and offensive support from the back end. Spacek was brought in to be the 2nd pairing puck mover but has been a flop. Last year if Pk and Hammer hadnt stepped up ( before the Wiz was signed) we would not have come close to the play-offs. If Markov goes out again,a real concern, even if PK comes through again, the team is finished without another puck moving point producer. If Markov plays a full year, so what if we have 3 guys who can move the puck and score. I like O"J.s pairings, Markov and Wiz on the 1st pairing , Markov being the better defensively. PK and Gorges 2nd pairing and Gill with likely Emelin on the last pairing. Weber would be 7th D ( Spacek on the farm and yes, I now know we get no Cap relief) or an extra forward. To me, this has the makings of a real good D. If Yemelin is the real deal then next year we just have to replace Gill with a big, physical defensive D-man and we have a pretty young, fast, skilled D with some muscle. I know people want a forward, especially of the bigger, some skill variety like Laich, but I think we really have a chance of building a strong D for now ( and avoiding a disaster if Markov gets hurt) and the future, so I would priortize the D now.
l

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06-21-2011, 01:10 PM
  #116
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Originally Posted by BrowsingForACup View Post
The more I think about it, the more I think signing Wisniewski to play as a #3 offensive d-man might NOT be a good investment if we want him to put up the numbers to go with his contract. We'd be better off investing in a more defensive-minded d-man like Brewer.
That's what I have been saying, skilled, mobile PMD's are a strength of the organisation, spending over 5 mil on a guy to play on the PP when we already have Subban Markov and Weber is not good use of cap room...even moreso for 2012-2013 and 2013-2014.

Re-signing him for 1 year at 5-5.25 mil would make sense, but no way Wiz and his agent go for that, this is his chance to get a big contract and set himself and his family up for life.

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06-21-2011, 01:29 PM
  #117
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I draw negative inferences from the deal that brought Wisniewski to Montréal. His salary is commensurate with that of a top two Dman. If he's that good, why didn't another GM make a better offer to the Islanders? If it hadn't been for Markov's injury (and that of Gorges) and the sputtering power play I doubt Gauthier would have traded for him.

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06-21-2011, 01:42 PM
  #118
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I'll third this. Wisniewski with Lidstrom would be terrifying. You would think after Souray and Streit's departure we would learn something...



To think, had they lost to us. He could have been fired.
Subban was the biggest point shot we had this season. WTH are you talking about?

Wiz replaced Markov. We would've had Markov-Subban if it weren't for Markov's injury. And we'll probably have Markov-Subban again. You think Wiz-Subban would be better than Markov-Subban? Or Markov-Wiz than Markov-Subban???

We already have our 'Wiz', his name is Markov, and he is much more a 'wizard' with the puck, and we already have our point shot, he's called Subban, and he's also much better than the Wiz.

There will be a new lesson now that probably will be created somehow if they don't replace Hammer and that lesson is that YOU NEED A 2nd pairing LD who can handle the right side forwards (left side D). If we don't get one, we'll look bad on the long run. But we won't be bad without Wiz, because the two roles he can have, we already have people for that.

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06-21-2011, 01:48 PM
  #119
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Originally Posted by Rated R Superstar View Post
Don't get me wrong, I love Wiz, but it seems like a risky move to have Markov, Subban and Wiz as our top 3. I think we need more balance by adding a dman like Bieksa or Brewer instead of Wiz.
I would agree with this and Brewer would be ideal, if it wasnt for Markovs injury problems the last 2 years. While I think 3 PMD is a good thing, I could live with PK and a full year of Markov. But if we lose Markov, we are sunk.

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06-21-2011, 03:55 PM
  #120
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At the moment I'd say the Wiz is.

- Defensively: 2nd pair.
- Offensively: 2nd/1st pair - 1st PP.

He's also aggressive and stands up for his teammates without taking stupid penalties.

Plus, he is turning 27 this year I think, so he has the potential to be a stable 1st pair D man with a great slapshot.

There's no doubt he'll test the market. I think he might be looking at 5,5 M offers..

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06-21-2011, 05:33 PM
  #121
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If we let him go, prepare to face him 6 times a year as a Leafs player. And we'll regret it. Seriously. I just hope as hell Markov will stay healthy if we opt to choose him before a guy such as Wiz, who combines intensity, offense and robust play in his game.
Keep him and let Gorges and Hammer go imo and play him with PK (assuming he plays left side) and put Spacek on the third pairing. Let Weber work his way in. Defensively it's similar and offensively - not so much. If we can dump Spacek, then we can keep Gorges too. It's a tight squeeze because this team doesn't get to the next level without Markov and another top 6 forward (other than Patches) imo.

Then again, that all took ten seconds of thought and I don't agree with it anymore.


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06-21-2011, 08:37 PM
  #122
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I'll third this. Wisniewski with Lidstrom would be terrifying. You would think after Souray and Streit's departure we would learn something...
.
When souray left, we replaced him with hamrlik and we had streit to pick up the pp slack (and I wasn't crazy about souray leaving, we never did fill the physical hole he left behind)...

When we let streit walk, we had no one after markov to fill the void, forcing us to waste assets on Schneider.

Situation is different now b/c we have Subban and Weber (behind markov, we hope) who can give us much of what we'll lose in wiz.

This is not to say we shouldn't want wiz back or that he wouldn't make us that much better, it just means we are in a much safer place to walk away if he prices himself out of town

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06-21-2011, 08:41 PM
  #123
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I'd like to keep Wiz but I feel like it's not possible. He's going to want a decent length deal, and I only see him as a 2-3 year option while Weber/Tinordi and others get ready to jump into the lineup full time. Preferably for me we'd let him walk and get a left handed veteran D to play with Weber on the bottom pairing, or let Spacegoat take that role.

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06-21-2011, 08:41 PM
  #124
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Keep him and let Gorges and Hammer go imo and play him with PK (assuming he plays left side) and put Spacek on the third pairing. Let Weber work his way in. Defensively it's similar and offensively - not so much. If we can dump Spacek, then we can keep Gorges too. It's a tight squeeze because this team doesn't get to the next level without Markov and another top 6 forward (other than Patches) imo.

Then again, that all took ten seconds of thought and I don't agree with it anymore.


let Gorges go..


Captain Kelowna!!!!!!!

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06-21-2011, 09:16 PM
  #125
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I hope they bring Wiz back next year. For a start, it gives us a kick-ass top 4 D (assuming Gorges is back, should only be a matter of time) with 3 guys either in or approaching their prime and another who may well be able to find his place as one of the best D in the league again. It also gives us the option of having a high quality puck mover on every pairing if we need it or if we want to frighten the other team silly. Doing so would also spread the workload a bit which with all the injuries this year, seemed like a problem at times. Down the stretch, being able to take some of the load off someone while maintaining the quality of our blueline could be huge. It also gives us excellent cover should Markov/Gorges have any health issues or if Mike Richards threats materialise

Plus, it really gives us some nice depth and potentially a position of strength from which to make deals further down the road. Everyone remembers the trade that brought Gorges here and gave us the chance to draft Patches. We got both for just Rivet (don't think we sent them a pick but I might be wrong). One reason we got so much out of that trade was because (as Murray said so himself) there was a premium on right handed Dmen. There were apparently 303 Dmen in the NHL last year, only 104 of them were right handed. I can't say for certain that such a premium still exists but I wouldn't be surprised if the same is still true, especially at key times of the year. If it is and especially if Weber continues to develop, it would truly be a luxury to have 3 offensively skilled right handed Dmen. If for any reason we needed to trade one of them, I'm sure we could get a bit of a bidding war going to up the value of the return. And it wouldn't hurt (IMO) to have some internal competition for places and ice time/roles.

I hope we can bring him back whatever happens, but if we are able to find a new home for Spacek, I'd be all over having Wiz return. If that were to happen, we'd have Marky, Wiz, Gorges, Subban, Gill, Weber (sounds like he is on the verge of signing), (Y)Emelin which gives us 7 bodies. If we need another physical player on the back end though, I think it'd be worth us making an offer to Mara, see if he'd take a reduced role with the team. Doesn't look like he'll make much (last contract apparently $750,000), he doesn't take **** from people, he is experienced and he can grow a great beard. If we get rid of Spacek and if he will take on a reduced role for us, I'd offer him a similar contract to the one he has now, maybe throw on an extra year and a little more cash to give him some security as thanks for taking on a role that could easily be overlooked. It probably wouldn't set us back that much against the cap, we'd have a physical presence we could turn to when needed on the blueline and with two key Dmen coming back from injury and another potentially stepping in with no experience of the league, it gives us some good cover and if we have problems on the back end, we don't have to rush around giving out assets for whatever scraps are available.

Obviously, if we are keeping Spatch, that alters things significantly. But if we were to try and maximize our blueline, that's what I'd look to do.

Qui Gon Dave is offline  
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