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Acquisitions/Cap management/Roster Building Thread XVI

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Old
06-21-2011, 12:20 PM
  #876
BrooklynCapsFan
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Originally Posted by Millhaus View Post
Yes, yes they are.

Your demands for 2 first lines all filled out with without a doubt 1st liners, a 3rd line filled with without a doubt 2nd liners, a 4th line filled out with without a doubt 3rd liners, and a couple of without a doubt 4th liner spares is crazy. And oh yeah do that with one guy with a $9.5+ mil cap hit...

But feel free to continue to be disappointed because of your ridiculous expectations.
Crazy expectations. Right. Consider a $6 million center...tell me what's wrong with this.

FORWARDS
Alexander Ovechkin ($9.538m) / Nicklas Backstrom ($6.700m) / Mike Knuble ($2.000m)
Brooks Laich ($4.000m) / Mike Cammalleri ($6.000m) / Kris Versteeg ($3.083m)
Chad Larose ($2.200m) / Marcus Johansson ($0.900m) / Eric Fehr ($2.200m)
Jason Chimera ($1.875m) / Boyd Gordon ($1.100m) / John Madden ($1.250m)
Matt Hendricks ($0.825m)

DEFENSEMEN
Scott Hannan ($3.000m) / Mike Green ($5.250m)
Karl Alzner ($2.500m) / John Carlson ($0.845m)
John Erskine ($1.500m) / Dennis Wideman ($3.937m)
Tyler Sloan ($0.700m)

GOALTENDERS
Michal Neuvirth ($1.150m) / Semyon Varlamov ($1.150m)

$61.7 million. $2.3 to spare.

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Old
06-21-2011, 12:25 PM
  #877
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Players that did not play during the 2010 playoffs, and their minutes per game:
Neuvirth: 65: 30
Hannan: 23:37
Alzner: 22:44
MoJo: 18:22
Arnott: 16:02
Sturm: 14:38
Erskine: 13:26
Hendricks: 9:08

Alzner only played one game in 2010, so I'm including him, but not Carlson who played every game. Erskine didn't play in 2010 post season, so he's in. Collins I'm not going to count since he only played one game.

Caps played an average of 65 minutes and 45 seconds per game with the 2 OT games (roughly). 9 games, 6 players on the ice, and the total time logged by players was 3550.5 minutes.

The above players logged a total of: 1651.05.

1651.05/3550.5= 46.5% of the minutes played in the playoffs were played by players that did not play in the 2010 playoffs.

PLEASE feel free to double check my math.

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06-21-2011, 12:40 PM
  #878
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Originally Posted by Foy View Post
Players that did not play during the 2010 playoffs, and their minutes per game:
Neuvirth: 65: 30
Hannan: 23:37
Alzner: 22:44
MoJo: 18:22
Arnott: 16:02
Sturm: 14:38
Erskine: 13:26
Hendricks: 9:08

Alzner only played one game in 2010, so I'm including him, but not Carlson who played every game. Erskine didn't play in 2010 post season, so he's in. Collins I'm not going to count since he only played one game.

Caps played an average of 65 minutes and 45 seconds per game with the 2 OT games (roughly). 9 games, 6 players on the ice, and the total time logged by players was 3550.5 minutes.

The above players logged a total of: 1651.05.

1651.05/3550.5= 46.5% of the minutes played in the playoffs were played by players that did not play in the 2010 playoffs.

PLEASE feel free to double check my math.
I agree that the whole "definition of insanity" line of thinking doesn't make any sense, but I'm trying to figure out how to account for Neuvy. I know he didn't play last season, but adding a goalie's minutes really skews the numbers higher. I wouldn't completely ignore the aspect that they used a different netminder, but using his 65 minute average doesn't make much sense. That is essentially saying he was as important as Alzner, Hannan, and Mojo combined.

I don't have a better way to account for him, just pointing out that including him bumps the total by more than 10%.

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Old
06-21-2011, 12:41 PM
  #879
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Originally Posted by ruProf View Post
That's not finally. I've wrote about it even before we lost to Montreal year ago.

Always thought it would be good. Not Green trying to break 2-on-1 after Schultz's collapse but Alzner breaking it after Green's aggressive move in the offensive zone.
Then the Carlzner pairing became our shutdown pair and everyone fell in love with it. Most didn't like it when I suggested Alzner-Green be tried, as they didn't want to break up the "special chemistry" between the kids.

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Originally Posted by ruProf View Post
Remember last year a couple of 2nd line UFA centers (or borderline #2) signed for around 3,5M? Namely Lombardi, Cullen.
Not saying your general concept is bad, but both neither team is happy with that deal currently as Lombardi was lost to injury and Cullen didn't perform like a 2C.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ruProf View Post
In retrospective we could had one of them and did just fine from the salary cap standpoint.

Now when the upper ceiling is rising I think it's maybe a time to sign a player for such a contract. I'm thinking about Michal Handzus once again.

Like 4M for 3 years. He will be a big body, a vet center to dish pucks to Semin. A few years younger and more versatile. Very interchangeable with other centers (NB, MJ). PK work included (no need for special #3C).

The whole line of centers will be better with such a player.

All-round Laich will not be required -> money could go elsewhere.


PS: Handzus practically doesn't miss games. He had some injury in 2006 but other than that he is playing 82 games every year. 72 playoff games of experience (11+21=32).

PPS: Another euro player? So fail.
If we're signing someone at ~$4M to play mostly 2C, I think I'd prefer Arnott to Zues. And a shorter deal, obv. If we're going a bit cheaper with a 2C/3C split or pure 3C, I think I side with Handzus.

Quote:
Originally Posted by RandyHolt View Post
Green hardly took any risks in the offensive zone at all last year. Against Bruce's wishes even. He had his token mental lapse in the playoffs going after the same guy in the corner as Erskine. That Green Erskine pairing, largely untested, almost seemed doomed to have a problem.
Erskine - Green was an on-ice abortion. That's the only thing that scares me about picking up a hard hitting LD for Green to pair with is that it turns into another cluster**** like that was. There's no way whoever new we bring in has that terrible of chemistry with Green though, right? And hopefully if they're more mobile than Erskine it will be fine.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Efactor View Post
The key guys who eat the minutes didn't change very much. Way less than 35% change in who was eating all the minutes. Look it up, use the math you're fond of.
John Carlson and Scott Hannan led the team in TOI/G in the playoffs this year. Karl Alzner was 5th. Tom Poti was 3rd in the playoffs in TOI/G last year. Mike Green moved from 1st (2010) to 7th (2011).

Corvo, Poti, ShaMo, Belanger, Flash, BMo, and Sloan account for 590.75 minutes of TOI in last years playoffs (or ~84 minutes/game). That's ~28% of the total ice-time the team had. They had 0 total minutes for the Capitals this year in the playoffs.

There's your math.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ruProf View Post
If McPhee was a little evil he would trade Fehr. I'm pretty sure we can have some good 2nd round pick for Eric. Same with Schultz maybe. At least we have Hannan waiting to sign probably.

Eric Fehr - it's an interesting case. If McPhee does want to spend some money for top-6 forward and doesn't think Fehr is ready - he should end his story here. We can use cheaper players who is better suited for 3rd line. Namely: Eakin, UFA like Larose, maybe Sjogren.
If McPhee/BB think Fehr can take Laich's spot (assuming Laich is gone), keep him. If they don't, trade him. I want someone more aggressive on the 3rd line as well. Upshall or Larose, preferably. Let Sjogren and Chimera battle it out for the other 3W spot.

If Laich is lost and Fehr is kept in the fold, add one more winger for depth since Fehr will be out at the beginning of the season. Could be someone like Ruutu, Moreau, or Dvorak. Mostly a 4th liner guy, possibly pushes Hendricks/Beagle/Sjogren to 13th forward.

If Laich is lost and Fehr is traded, bring in a new 2W. Gagne, Cole, Ryder, Leino, or Jokinen. Preferably Gagne or Cole.

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Old
06-21-2011, 12:44 PM
  #880
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Originally Posted by BrooklynCapsFan View Post
Crazy expectations. Right. Consider a $6 million center...tell me what's wrong with this.

FORWARDS
Alexander Ovechkin ($9.538m) / Nicklas Backstrom ($6.700m) / Mike Knuble ($2.000m)
Brooks Laich ($4.000m) / Mike Cammalleri ($6.000m) / Kris Versteeg ($3.083m)
Chad Larose ($2.200m) / Marcus Johansson ($0.900m) / Eric Fehr ($2.200m)
Jason Chimera ($1.875m) / Boyd Gordon ($1.100m) / John Madden ($1.250m)
Matt Hendricks ($0.825m)

DEFENSEMEN
Scott Hannan ($3.000m) / Mike Green ($5.250m)
Karl Alzner ($2.500m) / John Carlson ($0.845m)
John Erskine ($1.500m) / Dennis Wideman ($3.937m)
Tyler Sloan ($0.700m)

GOALTENDERS
Michal Neuvirth ($1.150m) / Semyon Varlamov ($1.150m)

$61.7 million. $2.3 to spare.
That Cammy plays LW, not Center. Also, he's not available and if he was we'd likely have to ship out a young, valuable roster player to get him. And that Laich probably isn't going to take a $3M deal.

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Old
06-21-2011, 12:51 PM
  #881
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Originally Posted by BrooklynCapsFan View Post
Crazy expectations. Right. Consider a $6 million center...tell me what's wrong with this.
Besides Cammalleri not being a centerman and 3 of your other top 6 being 3rd liners using your criteria for judging players nothing...

You get the same thing with trading for Versteeg, signing Larose and Madden, and moving Semin to center. How would you feel about that? Something tells me having Laich, Knuble, and Versteeg, you know 3rd liners on cup caliber teams in your words, would rankle you if someone proposed that let alone moving a winger to center and pretending that creates strength down the middle.

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Old
06-21-2011, 12:54 PM
  #882
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Originally Posted by Mystlyfe View Post
That Cammy plays LW, not Center. Also, he's not available and if he was we'd likely have to ship out a young, valuable roster player to get him. And that Laich probably isn't going to take a $3M deal.
That's my stupidity. I was trying to think of a recent ufa center signing.

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Old
06-21-2011, 01:03 PM
  #883
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Originally Posted by Millhaus View Post
Besides Cammalleri not being a centerman and 3 of your other top 6 being 3rd liners using your criteria for judging players nothing...

You get the same thing with trading for Versteeg, signing Larose and Madden, and moving Semin to center. How would you feel about that? Something tells me having Laich, Knuble, and Versteeg, you know 3rd liners on cup caliber teams in your words, would rankle you if someone proposed that let alone moving a winger to center and pretending that creates strength down the middle.
That was my mistake on Cammelari.

And I wouldn't hesitate to call Laich, Versteeg or Knuble second liners as they all have realistic 25 goal potential. Especially if they could skate alongside a ppg center.

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Old
06-21-2011, 01:11 PM
  #884
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GMGM doesn't really open the checkbook too much in FA, and I really don't see him adding more than one or two FA from other teams. I think in reality our roster next year will look something like:

CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

FORWARDS
Alexander Ovechkin ($9.538m) / Nicklas Backstrom ($6.700m) / Mike Knuble ($2.000m)
Eric Fehr ($2.200m) / Michal Handzus ($3.250m) / Alexander Semin ($6.700m)
Jason Chimera ($1.875m) / Marcus Johansson ($0.900m) / Scottie Upshall ($2.750m)
Matt Hendricks ($0.825m) / Boyd Gordon ($1.100m) / Mattias Sjogren ($0.900m)

DEFENSEMEN
Karl Alzner ($3.000m) / John Carlson ($0.845m)
Scott Hannan ($3.250m) / Mike Green ($5.250m)
Jeff Schultz ($2.750m) / Dennis Wideman ($3.937m)
John Erskine ($1.500m)

GOALTENDERS
Michal Neuvirth ($1.150m) / Braden Holtby ($0.637m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $61,059,572; BONUSES: $80,000
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $2,940,428


I think he will try and sign a center not named Brad Richards. Although Handzus (probably 2 year contract, with MoJo ready to step up to full time 2C after) is more a 2-3 tweener than I would like, he's big, screens the net well and is pretty tough.

I don't know if he will specifically go after Upshall, I just used him as an example. I think he will try and sign another true 3rd liner, whether it be Bergenheim, Ward, Larose, or Upshall I don't know.

The conversation becomes more interesting if Hannan signs elsewhere, but I believe he and Gordon are the only UFA that will be resigned. I think Laich will price himself off the team, and Arnott, Bradley, and Sturm won't be given offers. The only one I'm wavering on is Bradley, I don't really want to see him go.

I know there is cap space left over, but Carlson and Johansson won't be on those cheap contracts forever. Also leaves open the possibility of trade deadline moves. I think Varlamov (or his rights perhaps) are moved this off-season. If he does resign, then he and Neuvy will battle it out with Holtby seeing call-ups.


I think Beagle, Orlov, Eakin and Sjogren (if he doesn't make the team right away) will start in Hershey and get call-ups.


Next summer will potentially be more flexible in terms of cap-space with Semin, Wideman and a few other UFA's; and Green a RFA.

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Old
06-21-2011, 01:14 PM
  #885
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Originally Posted by BrooklynCapsFan View Post
That was my mistake on Cammelari.

And I wouldn't hesitate to call Laich, Versteeg or Knuble second liners as they all have realistic 25 goal potential. Especially if they could skate alongside a ppg center.
So a guy with 25 goal 'potential if they play with a PPG centerman' is a 2nd liner but a guy who actually scored 15 goals as a 3rd liner while playing with 3rd liners last seasons is actually a 4th liner, on a cup team of course?

Come on man, your double standards are ridiculous...

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06-21-2011, 01:17 PM
  #886
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So a guy with 25 goal 'potential if they play with a PPG centerman' is a 2nd liner but a guy who actually scored 15 goals as a 3rd liner while playing with 3rd liners last seasons is actually a 4th liner, on a cup team of course?

Come on man, your double standards are ridiculous...
There is no conditional on Knuble, Laich or Versteeg being able to score 25 imo.

Who's the 15 goal guy from last year we're talking about.

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Old
06-21-2011, 01:20 PM
  #887
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Originally Posted by DCRedhawk21 View Post
GMGM doesn't really open the checkbook too much in FA, and I really don't see him adding more than one or two FA from other teams.

[SKIP]

SALARY CAP: $64,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $61,059,572; BONUSES: $80,000
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $2,940,428

The conversation becomes more interesting if Hannan signs elsewhere, but I believe he and Gordon are the only UFA that will be resigned.
Add 1M for upgrading Hannan to Pitkanen. Just for chasing pucks

Overall it seems to be a realistic guess.

But you have to have 2 more forwards so cap space left will be less. Those 2 are King and Beagle, so it's like 1M more spent.

The weak link? No new top-6 forward. Knuble is old, Fehr is damaged, Kuznetsov is unproven, Semin is many things and soon to be UFA. All of them are soon to be UFA. Even Handzus is temporary solution.

New top-6 forward could be had.

PS: Green's RFA status hardly gives us anything in the form of cap space. I doubt he could be signed cheaper than he is now.

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Old
06-21-2011, 01:21 PM
  #888
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Originally Posted by ruProf View Post
Malamud is close to Varly as far as I am concerned. He said it very strictly: Varly is sure he can reclaim #1 status. In original issue (in russian) it sounds 100% like that.

I think he have to take 1,15M for 1 year and reclaim it.

Nothing really says Varly will bolt. KHL money will be still at his disposal next summer. Nothing will change.


PS: Happy camper in Hershey will have Kolzig to learn from. And some starts in Washington probably. If Varly is healthy enough and Holtby is still brilliant - trade Neuvirth. But I have another concern: Hotlby didn't done the same thing in AHL that Neuvirth did. One more season as AHL #1 will do not much damage to Holtby.
There's a Varly's interview http://www.sports.ru/en/hockey/105275962.html

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Old
06-21-2011, 01:25 PM
  #889
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I really don't get people's obsession with Michal Handzus. I honestly think he's even slower than Arnott, with less offensive capabilities. He is good on the dot, but defensively his speed limited him. If the team wanted a 2nd line pivot, they need to trade for one.

As a 3rd line center I'm a proponent of Marty Reasoner. Hard-worker, solid faceoff guy, solid pker/defensively, and will chip in offensively.

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Old
06-21-2011, 01:41 PM
  #890
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I don’t quite agree with the offer which has been made by the Capitals for the last months. That’s why the contract is not signed yet.
I wonder if GM is going to stand firm, or do the standard tail between the legs last minute concession. You would think GM's are past the charade since it all becomes predictable after a while. I know its standard protocol to open with a low bid, low balling spanning months. Last minute, up the offer. Counter, back and forth. get er done and fax it sign it fax it. Yawn.

I dont like it, since both the GM and the agent are f'in with their client/players head, all summer.

Varly does have options, so George doesnt hold ALL the cards here. He also wants 2G's to get a lot of work. I think all things equal, Holtby will be the one to end up in Hershey and give George another year to evaluate the other 2. Again, I think it should be a three way competition, not just let Holtby only face the winner of Varly vs Neuvy.

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Old
06-21-2011, 01:48 PM
  #891
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Originally Posted by BrooklynCapsFan View Post
There is no conditional on Knuble, Laich or Versteeg being able to score 25 imo.

Who's the 15 goal guy from last year we're talking about.
Not from last year, the year before that, Chimera. Sure Chimera only potted 10 last year but Laich only knocked in 16. Versteeg has never hit 25.

And there is a 100% condition on Knuble, Laich, and Versteeg playing with at least 1 and probably 2 legit 1st liners for those guys to have any hope of hitting 25. A line of Versteeg, Laich, and Knuble would be lucky to top 45 goals combined over a full season on their own.

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Old
06-21-2011, 01:59 PM
  #892
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Originally Posted by Appreci8 View Post
I really don't get people's obsession with Michal Handzus. I honestly think he's even slower than Arnott, with less offensive capabilities. He is good on the dot, but defensively his speed limited him. If the team wanted a 2nd line pivot, they need to trade for one.

As a 3rd line center I'm a proponent of Marty Reasoner. Hard-worker, solid faceoff guy, solid pker/defensively, and will chip in offensively.
I'd rather have Chad LaRose if they go that route.

I'm a proponent of an actual 2nd line C. I think MoJo is great, but he's more of an elite 3rd line utility player. The Caps need to be strong down the middle, not adequate.

If they're lowballing Laich, and Semin is a trade chip, I'm grasping that they're going after Richards.

Which is really an obvious move for them on several fronts. He's exactly what they're missing. But GMGM is generally lame and a year late on these kind of things, so I expect more ********.

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06-21-2011, 02:01 PM
  #893
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But GMGM is generally lame and a year late on these kind of things, so I expect more ********.
You know...this is my general mindset of this offseason.

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06-21-2011, 02:08 PM
  #894
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Originally Posted by EroCaps View Post
f they're lowballing Laich, and Semin is a trade chip, I'm grasping that they're going after Richards.
What does everyone think Richards is going to sign for anyway?

He's 31 and made $7.8 mil per on his last deal and being the only real top end forward out there he'll without a doubt get offers for $8+ mil per.

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06-21-2011, 02:09 PM
  #895
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Varlamov rejected the Capitals offer, it wasn't enough money. He's as good as gone.

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Old
06-21-2011, 02:10 PM
  #896
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Which is really an obvious move for them on several fronts. He's exactly what they're missing. But GMGM is generally lame and a year late on these kind of things, so I expect more ********.
BULL ****!

It tool him 13 years to get a Hannon.



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06-21-2011, 02:10 PM
  #897
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What does everyone think Richards is going to sign for anyway?

He's 31 and made $7.8 mil per on his last deal and being the only real top end forward out there he'll without a doubt get offers for $8+ mil per.
A minimum of $7.5/5 but with the UFA list being as weak as it is, I expect him to make more than that.

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06-21-2011, 02:11 PM
  #898
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I think that the problem with us is grit, speed, and the lack of depth.

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Old
06-21-2011, 02:12 PM
  #899
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Varlamov rejected the Capitals offer, it wasn't enough money. He's as good as gone.
I'm fine with them choosing Neuvy and Holtby, but if Varly and Laich walk and Semin is still on the roster I'm about off McPhee's bandwagon.

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06-21-2011, 02:13 PM
  #900
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I think Richards will get the cascading salary into retirement.

Not sure if GMGM gives him that. I could see Tampa pulling that in order to make a serious run with the old and the new.

I'd take Malone in a heartbeat even if that helped TB get Richards. Viva la Wingers!

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