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Howard Eskin of 610 WIP: Front Office Open to Trading Richards or Carter

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06-22-2011, 11:17 PM
  #676
mikedifr
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Lets run through this core's playoff history and the stupidity that follows on its heels.

Year 1: reach the ECF (everyone is happy)
Year 2: lose in the 1st round to the Stanley Cup Champion (they're a bunch of bums)
Year 3: make the SCF (everyone is happy within reason)
Year 4: lose in the 2nd round to the Stanley Cup Champion (they're a bunch of bums.)

The team hit the skids for the entire latter third of the season. They ran out of steam. It was that simple. On top of that, they started to get a bit full of themselves after they sat at the top of the standings for so long. It's a young group at its core, and this stuff happens. Flipping out and declaring them non-competitive with the top of the league after what they've done over the last two years is just plain hysterics.
Year 1 and 2 was a largely different team here (with the exception of Carter, Richards, Hartnell, Briere)

Year 3 was EXTREMELY lucky....Now I agree that is part of the game, but it needs to be considered......If the big argument about Carter's lack of production is injuries....I think its fair to assume we dont beat Boston without all their injuries.

Not declaring them non-competitive, just declaring them not as good as the teams they need to compete with.


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Mike, you made it sound like they took our anal virginity. The only team that really did that was Vancouver... in one game. Again, I so love small sample arguments. Especially when they're on cross-country road trips in the middle of the regular season.

Then why the **** did you bring it up again, Mike? It's a completely irrelevant discussion.
No, I said we are the 5th or 6th best team in the league....and we couldnt beat those teams. I dont care if it was by 1 goal or 7....still didnt beat them.

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That has nothing to do with relative production.
So if you remove Richards from the "3rd line" and he doesnt have the shut-down responsibility, he isnt going to score more points??? Its ludicrous to claim that someone trying to focus on playing defense on the 3rd line, who isnt asked to be the primary scorere isnt going to take a hit in production.

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You... he had a *ing sprained knee and you're lambasting him for "not showing up". In back-to-back years the guy has gone out there and played with significant injuries, but we have morons in here calling him a lazy POS. If you have serious injuries, it tends to negatively impact performance. That's why remaining healthy as a team is really *ing important if you're going to win the Cup.
\

For the record, I have never called him a lazy POS. Yes, remaining health is extremely important. So should we be heavily relying on someone who hasnt been able to stay healthy??

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It's called reversion to mean, Mike. And there's a ton of evidence that it's just the way this **** all works out. So, yes, it's OK. Is it unfortunate? Yeah, it's unfortunate. It's unfortunate Carter has had injuries, it's unfortunate Richards has had injuries (which hurt two of our playoff runs as well, btw).

Players revert to mean over long samples. So, some players having "mean production" isn't shocking. Neither is players with production well above mean... as they're likely to revert to mean in a negative way in the future. Pisani being the most recent example.
Are you seriously going to inlcude Pisani in this??? Wow. A third line player who has one good 20 game stretch is hardly comparable to all those players we were mentioning.

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Or maybe it will be next year. Sadly none of us can easily predict the future.
Exactly, which is why to even attempt to predict anything, whether sports, finances, etc. you look at historical performance. And Carter's historical performance in the playoffs to date in his career isnt great....for whatever excuses/reasons you want to site, it isnt as good as Richards, Giroux, Briere, etc.


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And your aggravation leads to you making arguments that are completely lacking in objectivity and a basis in actual reality. If you want to say you don't like Carter's game and don't think we can win with him... fine. But arguing that we should move him because of his supposed playoff ineptness is a dumb argument, and all the evidence says so.
If I am lacking in objectivity than so are you Jester....you havent even acknowledged the possibility you might be wrong....but then I did all year. Until he reverted to his "mean" of average production in the playoffs....Who is not being objective again?


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And if you deal him away because of an asinine belief system concerning playoff production. You buy low and sell high... not sell low.
There are a number of factors that go into dealing him away, not simply his "lack of playoff production?....I mentioned this numerous times. You are acting like that is the only reason I am claiming to trade the guy.

1) Who are you moving instead of him that would free up $5 million with one move??? Richards? Briere? Pronger? Timonen? You cant keep cutting 2,3,4 players to save money....Its why this team is in the position it is now with the lack of depth. Guys like Upshall are just as important in the playoffs as guys like Briere. That 3rd line is very important. Boston, TB and Vancouver are "empirical" evidence of this. Not to mention Paille/Campbell/Thornton who dominated at times. Betts/Shelley/Carcillo whoever were no where near that good. You cant tie up all your money in a handful of players. Its why TB was hurting all those years with all that money tied up in 3/4 guys and had to move two of them to improve the team, it was those 4 guys and a bunch of 4th liners.

2) There are obviously chemistry issues with this team if even half of the claims of locker room issues are true. There are serious cap issues. There is a small window that this team can win since arguably our 3 most important players are getting old very quickly.

3) If you want something of value, you need to move something of value. I am not claiming we should dump the guy for nothing. But in my opinion, it would make more sense to take that $5.5 million (or whatever the hell it is) and get a TRUE winger that may score 10 less goals to play with Giroux/JVR (assuming Giroux is staying at center) and also a 15 goal, physical, 3rd liner that can push Carcillo/Powe/Nodl back down to the 4th line. We still have issues shutting people down. There is no Peverly/Bergeron/Malhota/Lapierrre/Moore on this team. Richards gets too beat up doing it and Carter has been moved to the wing (at least for now) Its no coincidene (ignoring goaltending for a minute) that Vancouver, TB and Boston had probably the deepest groups of forwards in the league

4) In conjunction with the cap issues....we NEVER have money to make deals at the deadline. Boston got Kaberle, Kelly, Peverly at the deadline. Kaberle might not have been great, but the other two were key role players for them and were able to make up for the fact that Bergeron went down for a few games.....

5) If Carter stayed at center and was your "3rd" center getting the shut down assignments and taking the important faceoffs and playing solid defense.....instead of the top line winger being relied upon to be our top goal scorer....and not doing it....I would be much less inclined to want to push him out the door. But then again, how much longer can we afford to keep paying guys on our 3rd line and 3rd defensive pairing so much.


Last edited by mikedifr: 06-22-2011 at 11:27 PM.
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06-22-2011, 11:21 PM
  #677
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
You say all of this as if Carter failed to show up in playoffs prior to his NHL career... as noted, he was a *ing stud in the WJC... and was an absolutely beast in the AHL playoffs stepping in as a 20 y/o kid.
So was Richards and so was Giroux. Not so much WJC, but certainly in the memorial cup and Richards was just as good in that Phantom run, just played in 7 less games because he was busy with the playoffs for his junior team. Difference is, Richards and Giroux have translated that to the NHL so far in their careers (Giroux immediately)....Carter has not. Hence why if I need to move someone from this team, I move Carter.

If there was no cap I wouldnt be so anxious to trade him. I could go throw money at anyone I want and play him anywhere I want. Unfortunately, there is a cap and resources need to be managed.....the single biggest weakness with this team.

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06-22-2011, 11:27 PM
  #678
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Originally Posted by mikedifr View Post
So was Richards and so was Giroux. They have translated that to the NHL so far in their careers....Carter has not. Hence why if I need to move someone from this team, I move Carter.

If there was no cap I wouldnt be so anxious to trade him. I could go throw money at anyone I want and play him anywhere I want. Unfortunately, there is a cap and resources need to be managed.....the single biggest weakness with this team.
Jeff Carter's cap hit, for 35+ goals, is not a problem to this team.

As to your post above... A fundamental point that you're not grasping: role doesn't really matter. If you're a 3rd line guy in the regular season and you're a 3rd line guy in the playoffs (Gagne was) then I expect you to perform pretty much the same. It isn't like we're talking about guys that suddenly got their minutes dropped in the playoffs.

Quote:
3) If you want something of value, you need to move something of value. I am not claiming we should dump the guy for nothing. But in my opinion, it would make more sense to take that $5.5 million (or whatever the hell it is) and get a TRUE winger that may score 10 less goals to play with Giroux/JVR (assuming Giroux is staying at center) and also a 15 goal, physical, 3rd liner that can push
Do you honestly think you're going to get a 25-35 (Carter is a 35-45 guy) goal scorer AND a quality third line guy for 5.5M?

You fall, terribly, into the trap of using small samples to make big arguments.


But I really want to focus on this.

Quote:
Are you seriously going to inlcude Pisani in this??? Wow. A third line player who has one good 20 game stretch is hardly comparable to all those players we were mentioning.
As noted, you are completely not understanding the point. Pisani's production is completely out of line with what you would expect. Therefore, the expectation is that as he plays more playoff games he will REVERT to mean. That 20 game stretch will get swallowed up by more games and his gross numbers will look similar to what he produces during the regular season.

What "type" of player you look at does not *ing matter for the argument. You can talk about Jody Shelley and compare him to Datsyuk for this discussion with ease.

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06-22-2011, 11:29 PM
  #679
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We have a young 2 way forward who is among the best goal scorers in the NHL with a very friendly cap hit...the kind of you can easily build teams around. However, after he had one pretty good playoffs early in his still young career, he was injured for the next 3 postseasons so he didn't do as well.

Based on that, you draw the assumption that he will NEVER produce in the postseason and we should trade him.

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06-22-2011, 11:38 PM
  #680
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BTW, at 34 arguing that keeping Briere around (for his playoff production) over others given his cap hit and expected declining production is profoundly absurd.

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06-22-2011, 11:47 PM
  #681
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Jeff Carter's cap hit, for 35+ goals, is not a problem to this team.

As to your post above... A fundamental point that you're not grasping: role doesn't really matter. If you're a 3rd line guy in the regular season and you're a 3rd line guy in the playoffs (Gagne was) then I expect you to perform pretty much the same. It isn't like we're talking about guys that suddenly got their minutes dropped in the playoffs.

You fall, terribly, into the trap of using small samples to make big arguments.


But I really want to focus on this.



As noted, you are completely not understanding the point. Pisani's production is completely out of line with what you would expect. Therefore, the expectation is that as he plays more playoff games he will REVERT to mean. That 20 game stretch will get swallowed up by more games and his gross numbers will look similar to what he produces during the regular season.

What "type" of player you look at does not *ing matter for the argument. You can talk about Jody Shelley and compare him to Datsyuk for this discussion with ease.
35 goals in the regular season.....How many were scored in the playoffs? No one, at least not me, is claiming his cap hit is too high. But we are apparently about to add $5-6 million to the cap in a goalie. It has to come from somewhere. Where are you taking it from without killing the depth of this team even more than we have already the past few years????

Jester, again with all due respect here, for the 1000th time.....I am a ****ing CPA who deals with means, samples, empircal evidence, etc. on a daily ****ing basis....I probably understand the point better than 99.9% of the people on this damn message board....you arent the only intellectual person here...I am not missing any point. You are a smart guy, I can tell. And I respect that a lot....but whether it be your intention or not, you like to spit out all this intellectual crap and it may "fool" or turn off some of the "kids" on here (no offense to anyone in particular) or people that are statistically/mathematically illiterate (again no offense to anyone) but not me.

Samples, as long as they are a reasonable size (and 47 games is certainly much more than reasonable) are indiciative of a potential issue that you can extrapolate to the entire "population" or "time period" you are talking about.

Pisani is not even close to this. Even a blind squirrell finds a nut at some point. Pisani is the blind squirrell.

We arent talking about 10 games or 2 years of playoffs here. We are talking 6 seasons into an NHL career, of a very high draft pick, where the vast majority of comparable players already have strong playoff performances when they have beeen in the playoffs for multiple years. ESPECIALLY, when you isolate that sample to the post-lockout era of the NHL. We are talking about a guy who has scored 46, 33 and 36 goals over the last 3 regular seasons, and been largely healthy in the process. That is .48 goals per game. In those same 3 years, he has been injured in the playoffs and put up .29 goals per game (and 5 of those 7 goals were concentrated to 4 of the 24 games) Its flat out NOT GOOD ENOUGH, injuries or no injuries. And its "completely out of line of what I would expect"

I dont give a **** what a player's "mean" is over his 18 year career when looking at him in a vaccuum. What he MIGHT do over the next 10 years is irrelevant. All that matters is what he HAS done. What matters are his prime years. The years in their mid 20s and the years where they have an opportunity to win. Championships are all about capitalizing on an opportunity. This team has blown several opportunities now. Carter has blown several opportunites. Injuries have absolutely played a part....but its part of the game. Tough **** for Carter. I am of the belief that Lemieux could have broken a lot of Gretzky's records if he had the same health....Doesnt matter, because he didnt.


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06-22-2011, 11:49 PM
  #682
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
We have a young 2 way forward who is among the best goal scorers in the NHL with a very friendly cap hit...the kind of you can easily build teams around. However, after he had one pretty good playoffs early in his still young career, he was injured for the next 3 postseasons so he didn't do as well.

Based on that, you draw the assumption that he will NEVER produce in the postseason and we should trade him.
Who is claiming that? Certainly not me. I love how you and Jester are "conveniently" ignoring the "objective" reasoning I have for trading him....of course if you didnt, that would ruin the position that I am a hater and not being objective which is far from the truth

So you are building your team around Carter....not the players that have outpeformed him so far when it matters in Richards (our captain) and Giroux?

And if we are building around Carter....maybe he should be playing his natural position and we should bringing in players that complement him.

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BTW, at 34 arguing that keeping Briere around (for his playoff production) over others given his cap hit and expected declining production is profoundly absurd.
Did I not see that he just hit his career high in goals at 34??

I dont necessarily disagree with that in theory...which is why this team needs to win NOW.

However, 1) NMC and 2) you are putting an awful lot of faith in someone who hasnt done **** yet (for whatever reason) by moving the guy that has led your team in goal scoring in the playoffs the past few seasons.

Another reason for a trade of Carter making sense....I believe he is the only one without a no-trade clause, at least for a short period of time...I know one kicks in at some point.

I cant wait to see what happens when we dont win a cup this year with a $5 million goalie. (assuming he is signed) Everyone will be out of excuses.

I hope I am wrong....but I havent been lately. I know you like that argument Jester

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Originally Posted by Jester View Post

Do you honestly think you're going to get a 25-35 (Carter is a 35-45 guy) goal scorer AND a quality third line guy for 5.5M?
Sorry....missed this point. You can get a "Versteeg" (20-25) that can complement two better players on the top line and a 15 goal third liner for $5.5. In another thread, you claimed a good role player for the 3rd/4th line would cost $1 million, I am allocating $2 million so that is a true 3rd liner. Someone like Higgins (who I wanted instead of Zherdev) who is a perfectly competent 3rd liner.

You may sacrifice 5-10 goals (in the regular season) but you add depth, and are potentilly better equipped/built for the playoffs.

Of course, this wouldnt be an issue if we had guys like Marchand, for example, ready to come up from the AHL.


Last edited by Beef Invictus: 06-23-2011 at 12:21 AM. Reason: merging posts
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06-23-2011, 12:21 AM
  #683
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Originally Posted by mikedifr View Post
Who is claiming that? Certainly not me. I love how you and Jester are "conveniently" ignoring the "objective" reasoning I have for trading him....of course if you didnt, that would ruin the position that I am a hater and not being objective which is far from the truth

So you are building your team around Carter....not the players that have outpeformed him so far when it matters in Richards (our captain) and Giroux?

And if we are building around Carter....maybe he should be playing his natural position and we should bringing in players that complement him.
Yeah, here's the problem with your extremely subjective "objective" reason: It assumes he will continue to under perform in the playoffs...depite all the statistical and historic examples that prove that is unlikely.

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06-23-2011, 01:52 AM
  #684
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If the Flyers get the 8th pick I think the Flyers should take Ryan Murphy. He looks like he could be a special player. I just have a hunch.

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06-23-2011, 05:26 AM
  #685
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If the Flyers get the 8th pick I think the Flyers should take Ryan Murphy. He looks like he could be a special player. I just have a hunch.
He's a lot of fun to watch.

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06-23-2011, 06:02 AM
  #686
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He's a lot of fun to watch.
Who is he comparable to?

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06-23-2011, 06:33 AM
  #687
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Who is he comparable to?
Coffey/Niedermayer.

I'm not saying he's a future HOF'er but the styles are similar. He's never going to be the guy to lay out an incoming forward (although he has a wicked hipcheck). Exceptional skater, elusive, very good shot from the point, and he controls the puck on his stick unbelievably well, and makes a good first pass out of the zone when he's not carrying it out. We haven't seen a defenseman like him in the OHL in years.

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06-23-2011, 06:35 AM
  #688
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Coffey/Niedermayer.

I'm not saying he's a future HOF'er but the styles are similar. He's never going to be the guy to lay out an incoming forward (although he has a wicked hipcheck). Exceptional skater, elusive, very good shot from the point, and he controls the puck on his stick unbelievably well, and makes a good first pass out of the zone when he's not carrying it out. We haven't seen a defenseman like him in the OHL in years.
So why isn't he going higher in the draft?

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06-23-2011, 06:42 AM
  #689
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So why isn't he going higher in the draft?
He's ranked in the top 10. I think if he were 6'3", he'd be in the discussions for top 3. He's about 5'11" I think. He also has to work on the defensive side of the game. Up until last season, he'd never had to pay any attention to his defensive game. He's learning and will continue to do so.

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06-23-2011, 07:26 AM
  #690
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Zherdev?? Seriously? What the hell did that POS do?

Not denying the defensive help by certain players..(or the fact that Richards got the short end of the stick)..but isnt that the way it works??? Put players on lines that complement each other???

By the way, in the playoffs, Giroux had 9 of his 11 points in the 5 games Carter missed....just saying. Honestly, I am too lazy to even attempt to figure out the regular season breakdown.

Also, last time I checked, Giroux had 21 points in 23 games in last year's playoffs and he was with JVR and Asham most of the time, wasnt he??? He certainly wasnt playing with Carter on any consistent basis (considering he missed half the playoffs anyway) and I remember us all *****ing about Carter and Richards being together.

Giroux is the anti Carter (at least to date) in the playoffs.....was in juniors as well. He had something like 51 points in 19 playoff games the one year.
Zherdev's defence was the problem, not offence.

As far as Giroux in the playoffs, let's see how he does if he breaks his feet, separates a shoulder or sprains his MCL. If he doesn't produce, most of us will understand that injuries make your game suffer. Most of us give props to players who play through them but others think of them as nothing but highly paid robots who must play the same way, injured or not.

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06-23-2011, 08:31 AM
  #691
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35 goals in the regular season.....How many were scored in the playoffs?
Sorry, I stopped reading there. The fundamental *ing point is that the fact that he hasn't scored at the expected clip in the playoffs is not a good reason to want to get rid of him. It's actually completely invalid.

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06-23-2011, 08:35 AM
  #692
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Sorry....missed this point. You can get a "Versteeg" (20-25) that can complement two better players on the top line and a 15 goal third liner for $5.5. In another thread, you claimed a good role player for the 3rd/4th line would cost $1 million, I am allocating $2 million so that is a true 3rd liner. Someone like Higgins (who I wanted instead of Zherdev) who is a perfectly competent 3rd liner.

You may sacrifice 5-10 goals (in the regular season) but you add depth, and are potentilly better equipped/built for the playoffs.

Of course, this wouldnt be an issue if we had guys like Marchand, for example, ready to come up from the AHL.
Mike, the repeated use of the bold and insinuating that there is a real difference between it and the playoffs is, simply put, dumb. It is willful ignorance of observed reality. You are being subjective and ignoring objective facts to make your point.

You are Cartsiephan.

A good 3rd/4th line role player is Darrol Powe. That is not the 15 goal type of guy that you're talking about.

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06-23-2011, 08:59 AM
  #693
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Mike, the repeated use of the bold and insinuating that there is a real difference between it and the playoffs is, simply put, dumb. It is willful ignorance of observed reality. You are being subjective and ignoring objective facts to make your point.

You are Cartsiephan.

A good 3rd/4th line role player is Darrol Powe. That is not the 15 goal type of guy that you're talking about.
Not to butt in here, but Powe is a 4th line player. He may be forced into a 3rd line role at times because of injury, or a lineup shakeup, but he's not a 3rd liner. There's good 3rd line players that score 15 goals a year that cost in the $1.8-2.8m range. I think that is what he was talking about. Guys like Glencross, Jokinen, Larose, Meittinen...

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06-23-2011, 09:24 AM
  #694
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You are Cartsiephan.
The Godwin's law of HFBoards and Flyers talk about Carter.....

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06-23-2011, 09:34 AM
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...



Lets run through this core's playoff history and the stupidity that follows on its heels.

Year 1: reach the ECF (everyone is happy)
Year 2: lose in the 1st round to the Stanley Cup Champion (they're a bunch of bums)
Year 3: make the SCF (everyone is happy within reason)
Year 4: lose in the 2nd round to the Stanley Cup Champion (they're a bunch of bums.)
Best thing I have seen posted on a Flyers message board, maybe ever.

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06-23-2011, 10:35 AM
  #696
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Coffey/Niedermayer.

I'm not saying he's a future HOF'er but the styles are similar. He's never going to be the guy to lay out an incoming forward (although he has a wicked hipcheck). Exceptional skater, elusive, very good shot from the point, and he controls the puck on his stick unbelievably well, and makes a good first pass out of the zone when he's not carrying it out. We haven't seen a defenseman like him in the OHL in years.
I heard Zubov too ?

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06-23-2011, 10:49 AM
  #697
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Not every CPA graduates at the top of his class.

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06-23-2011, 10:56 AM
  #698
Protest
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Originally Posted by DenverBoone View Post
Not every CPA graduates at the top of his class.
No, but passing the CPA exam is very difficult.

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06-23-2011, 11:22 AM
  #699
Jester
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The Godwin's law of HFBoards and Flyers talk about Carter.....
Not really. Using empirically false reasoning to argue in favor of trading Carter is exactly what Cartsiephan did.

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06-23-2011, 11:37 AM
  #700
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Not to butt in here, but Powe is a 4th line player. He may be forced into a 3rd line role at times because of injury, or a lineup shakeup, but he's not a 3rd liner. There's good 3rd line players that score 15 goals a year that cost in the $1.8-2.8m range. I think that is what he was talking about. Guys like Glencross, Jokinen, Larose, Meittinen...
On a lot of teams in this league, Powe can play the 3rd line spot. Especially a more defensive/energy line format.

Jokinen is coming off a 65 and 52 point season. If not for injury, he would have back to back 20+ goal seasons including a 30 goal season. He is getting a raise.

Glencross' new cap hit is 2.5M.

Larose made 1.7M on his last contract.

Miettinen had a 2.3M cap hit and was playing 18 a night the last few years.

These are all players that are better than Powe, but they are also guys that can play on 2nd lines if need be in a few cases, and are paid accordingly.

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