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What is a top 6 forward?

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Old
07-04-2011, 02:38 AM
  #1
Kwayry
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What is a top 6 forward?

This is my definition of a top 6 forward:
- is a 20 goal guy.
- is a character guy.
- is a guy who has the trust of the coaching staff in any game situation.

I was reading Hockey prospectus and they have a different definition

Quote:
Forwards who score more than 1.7 even-strength points per 60 minutes are generally the players getting the bulk of the ice-time on the top two lines, and are often called top-6 forwards.
http://hockeyprospectus.com/article....402&mode=print

What is your definition of top6? and top line for that matter?

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07-04-2011, 03:54 AM
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For me, a top-6 forward is a player who always & consistently creates scoring chances...either for himself or for others or both.

A constant threat to produce goals.

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07-04-2011, 04:01 AM
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JeffMangum
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A player can be a top-6 forward and not necessarily be "trusted" by the coach in certain situations.

Martin Havlat certainly is a top-6 forward, but I'm not putting him on my penalty kill or on during the last minute of a game where my team has a 1 goal lead.

The poster above nailed it -- a player who can generate a scoring opportunity at any given time.

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07-04-2011, 05:03 AM
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There are 30 teams so technically you could label the top 180 point recorders as "second line" as a strict definition. Last year, that was around 35 points. Now, that would be the limit, so I think a "true second liner" would be more around 45 points. Now, some players bring more to the table defensively than others but I think 45 points is a pretty good barometer of an average second liner. I'd say an above average second liner is anywhere from 45-50 points.

47 players last year recorded more than 60 points. So I'd say that anything above that is a definite first liner and you could argue for someone who is in the 55 range. Top end first lines put up around 200 points a year, so I could see someone arguing even 65 points. If I had to say:

80+ points: Elite first liner
70+ points: High-end first liner
60+ points: True first liner
55+ points: First line tweener/Elite second liner
50+ points: Above average second liner
40+ points: True second liner


I know points aren't isn't a foolproof method but I think it should provide some perspective.

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07-04-2011, 06:18 AM
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Gift o. G.- great point. You need to have those numbers in the back of your head at least during this cap era.

I mean, many seem to think that a 2nd lineer should score 70 pts. Then you'll have a helluva team.

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07-04-2011, 07:46 AM
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Yeah I usually think of them as a guy who can score 50-65 points or so

Get around 70 points you're talking about a 1st liner. Between 60 and 70 is "very good second liner to 1st line tweener stage"

50-60 is good to almost very good range...

Below 50 can be a 2nd liner IMO but one that needs to show a bit more scoring consistency

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07-04-2011, 02:31 PM
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Elite: 85+ points
Top first liner: 75-85 points
Bottom first liner: 65-75 points
1-2 tweener: 60-65 points
Top 2nd liner: 50-60 points
Bottom 2nd liners: 45-50 points
2-3 tweener: 40-45 points
Top 3rd liner: 30-40 points
Bottom 3rd liner: 25-30 points

For defense-first players, this can be reduced by 10%.


Last edited by Beacon: 07-04-2011 at 02:54 PM.
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07-04-2011, 02:40 PM
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BlueshirtBlitz
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I always go by the mantra

75
50
35
20

If your lines are producing like that you're in very good shape.

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07-04-2011, 02:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueshirtBlitz View Post
I always go by the mantra

75
50
35
20

If your lines are producing like that you're in very good shape.
Goal production for each line?

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07-04-2011, 02:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 68MGQR10 View Post
Goal production for each line?
Overall points per player, give or take 5 or so.

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07-04-2011, 03:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RangerEsq View Post
Elite: 85+ points
Top first liner: 75-85 points
Bottom first liner: 65-75 points
1-2 tweener: 60-65 points
Top 2nd liner: 50-60 points
Bottom 2nd liners: 45-50 points
2-3 tweener: 40-45 points
Top 3rd liner: 30-40 points
Bottom 3rd liner: 25-30 points

For defense-first players, this can be reduced by 10%.
Just about right

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07-04-2011, 03:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueshirtBlitz View Post
Overall points per player, give or take 5 or so.
I like your system... very realistic, and you're right: You have a damn good team if they are achieving this.

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07-04-2011, 03:18 PM
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points schmoints

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07-04-2011, 03:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MSG the place to be View Post
points schmoints
Right on, plus minus is much more important.

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07-04-2011, 03:56 PM
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By your definition Gaborik is not a top 6 guy.

Top 6 imo is just a guy who creates chances and can get 60+ points consistently. His job is to score and he does it well.

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07-04-2011, 04:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadowrunner View Post
Right on, plus minus is much more important.
A Defenseman knocks down his man, gathers the puck, avoids two checkers and sends a breakout pass out of the zone. The pass hits off of the Left Wing's leg while he's busy ogling the point leaders posted on the behind the goal video board. The Center scoops up the puck and starts playing give and go with the Right Wing for 30 seconds. The Right Wing scores. Clearly the Left Wing deserves credit for his magistry. Give him a point.

Exaggerated for effect but honestly, most of the points awarded in the NHL are for sheer dumb luck. I watch the games like a hawk and it still takes a replay to know who will be awarded the assisits.

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07-04-2011, 05:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MSG the place to be View Post
A Defenseman knocks down his man, gathers the puck, avoids two checkers and sends a breakout pass out of the zone. The pass hits off of the Left Wing's leg while he's busy ogling the point leaders posted on the behind the goal video board. The Center scoops up the puck and starts playing give and go with the Right Wing for 30 seconds. The Right Wing scores. Clearly the Left Wing deserves credit for his magistry. Give him a point.

Exaggerated for effect but honestly, most of the points awarded in the NHL are for sheer dumb luck. I watch the games like a hawk and it still takes a replay to know who will be awarded the assisits.
Not that that kind of thing doesn't happen at all, but discounting points as an indicator of productivity is just silly. By your logic Brad Isbister or Marcel Hossa should have gotten as many points playing on Jagr's line as Straka. Even with all that icetime they were still 30 pt players at best.

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07-04-2011, 05:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gift of Gaborik View Post
There are 30 teams so technically you could label the top 180 point recorders as "second line" as a strict definition. Last year, that was around 35 points. Now, that would be the limit, so I think a "true second liner" would be more around 45 points. Now, some players bring more to the table defensively than others but I think 45 points is a pretty good barometer of an average second liner. I'd say an above average second liner is anywhere from 45-50 points.

47 players last year recorded more than 60 points. So I'd say that anything above that is a definite first liner and you could argue for someone who is in the 55 range. Top end first lines put up around 200 points a year, so I could see someone arguing even 65 points. If I had to say:

80+ points: Elite first liner
70+ points: High-end first liner
60+ points: True first liner
55+ points: First line tweener/Elite second liner
50+ points: Above average second liner
40+ points: True second liner


I know points aren't isn't a foolproof method but I think it should provide some perspective.
Measuring how many goals scored per 60 minutes of TOI is a better way to look at it in absolute terms. But then you get into the argument of why the player is not getting the minutes, have to look at the +/- as the next layer.
But overall, I think the above is a pretty good measuring stick.

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07-04-2011, 05:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadowrunner View Post
Not that that kind of thing doesn't happen at all, but discounting points as an indicator of productivity is just silly. By your logic Brad Isbister or Marcel Hossa should have gotten as many points playing on Jagr's line as Straka. Even with all that icetime they were still 30 pt players at best.
I'm not trying to argue that points don't matter...but it is a seriously flawed stat.

Should an assist count just as much as a goal? That question alone makes it silly to use points as gospel.

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07-04-2011, 05:18 PM
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Barbara Underhill
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On a deep team I think 2nd liners should be scoring at around 60 pts. Top liners in the 85+ range.

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07-04-2011, 05:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tube Sock View Post
On a deep team I think 2nd liners should be scoring at around 60 pts. Top liners in the 85+ range.
60 points is a very high mark for 2nd line. For comparison the Pack line scored 54 - 44 - 48 points last season.

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07-04-2011, 05:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tube Sock View Post
On a deep team I think 2nd liners should be scoring at around 60 pts. Top liners in the 85+ range.
That's not a deep team, that's an all-star team.

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07-04-2011, 06:49 PM
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Quote:
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That's not a deep team, that's an all-star team.
Indeed. I wasn't thinking clearly haha I wouldn't expect everyone on the 2nd line to score 60pts but if we're taking the Rangers into consideration I'd think something like this wouldn't be unfathomable.

Dubinsky (55-60)-Richards(75-85)-Gaborik(80-85)
Wolski(35-40)-Anisimov(50-60)-Callahan(50-55)

That's a minimal increase for Dubinsky and Callahan and taking into consideration the games missed due to injury this season they could have hit those numbers. I also think AA is going to break out. His numbers are the only overly optimistic ones.

Also I said around 60 so 55+ really.

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07-04-2011, 07:29 PM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tube Sock View Post
That's a minimal increase for Dubinsky and Callahan.

I think Dubi and Cally are done improving, other than mental toughness in a long playoff push. They are 25 and 26 years old. They both have been playing in the NHL since the beginning of the 2007 calendar year.

They aren't rookies, they aren't sophomores, they aren't even in their third year - they have been around for 4.5 years and are now in their mid-20s. They might still have their career season ahead of them, but they also have their down season ahead as well.

I think going forward, we should expect just what we got last year from each of them: 55-60 points over the course of 80 games. Expecting them to be more than 1-2 line tweeners is not reasonable.

Yes, I remember people saying they are just above average third liners, but it was before they joined the NHL and just because they overshot their original projections does not mean their production will keep improving exponentially.

If everyone on the Dubi-Anisimov-Cally line will score 55-60 points next season, we should be very happy. I would be very happy if the Rangers got 70-75 goals from this trio next year.

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07-04-2011, 07:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RangerEsq View Post
I think Dubi and Cally are done improving, other than mental toughness in a long playoff push. They are 25 and 26 years old. They both have been playing in the NHL since the beginning of the 2007 calendar year.

They aren't rookies, they aren't sophomores, they aren't even in their third year - they have been around for 4.5 years and are now in their mid-20s. They might still have their career season ahead of them, but they also have their down season ahead as well.

I think going forward, we should expect just what we got last year from each of them: 55-60 points over the course of 80 games. Expecting them to be more than 1-2 line tweeners is not reasonable.

Yes, I remember people saying they are just above average third liners, but it was before they joined the NHL and just because they overshot their original projections does not mean their production will keep improving exponentially.

If everyone on the Dubi-Anisimov-Cally line will score 55-60 points next season, we should be very happy. I would be very happy if the Rangers got 70-75 goals from this trio next year.
I don't know how anyone can say either or, because Callahan and Dubinsky both improved this year and were older players.

Who's to say getting older, more mature and stronger won't help improve the power forward game of these two?

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