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The Canadiens Offensive Prospect Fallacy

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Old
07-04-2011, 02:55 PM
  #26
montreal
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Originally Posted by Roulin View Post
I hope so! I've been pessimistic about Palushaj's ability to adapt to the NHL, but you are more familiar with the Bulldogs than I.

Cammalleri was a leading scorer on a great Michigan team from the age of 19. Kristo has yet to make an impact with North Dakota, heading into his 21 year old season. I think it's time to dominate, if it's ever going to happen for him.
Palushaj stepped up big this year, and in last years playoffs, both were positive signs. That said I didn't like what I saw in the NHL, not that it means he can't be a solid NHL one day, just that my concerns for him are more along the lines of his lack of strength but still think he could be a decent top 9 player, especially if he works hard and plays with solid players. What I really like though is how he steps up in big games, had a 4 pt night in one elimination game during the playoffs.

As for Kristo I strongly disagree. Kristo has made a huge impact at North Dakota, not so much this past season but as a Freshman he was easily one of the best players on the team, if not the most skilled and certainly the fastest. He was top 3 on the team in goals assits and points plus he missed a couple games for the WJC's. He was one of the top Freshman in the NCAA, was on the top line at times for one of the top teams in the NCAA, top PP unit for the last 2 years and sometimes on the 2nd PK.

I get to see a lot of Kristo, especially with them having a national tv deal last year (hope they do it again this year) I think very highly of his skills although he needs to fill out more and get stronger while continuing to improve his defensive play, but with his speed and shot to go with the willingness to want the puck in key moments I think he stands a good chance of being a solid NHLer in a couple years.

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07-04-2011, 03:01 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Agnostic View Post
Only one team in the 6 years since the lockout has won the Cup without having a top 5 offense (Ducks, #7). The Habs are 30 goals of production off the pace.

Replacing the 22nd offense in the league should not be all that difficult, getting it to the required level of effectiveness is. Gauthier should get on that dossier ASAP.
Boston was .05 G/G from 9th in the league last year. Habs were .28 G/G away from tenth with a depleted core. I think that stat is a little overrated when it comes to winning the Cup.

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07-04-2011, 03:05 PM
  #28
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Cammy had 4 development years. Drafted 2001 put up 55pts in 80 games in 2005-06. That said, he had 15 pts in 31 games in the 03-04 season. Probably safe to assume he would have been a top 6 forward 04/05 were it not for the lockout. 109 pts in 79 games in the AHL. Would put him at 23 if my math is good. Probably 22 if not for the lockout.

Kristo is currently 21. Going into his 4th development year since his draft. In the 2005 draft, only 1 player put up a .5 ppg pace for the first time 5 seasons after being drafted. Would hardly write him off yet, but statistically speaking, most impact players are making their mark by year 4, second most is year 3. Very few after that.
Kristo was drafted at 18, Cammalleri at 20. Big difference. So you have Cammy's age off a bit.

Also the 05-06 stats were inflated. That is the year Gionta scored 48 and Gomez 33-51-84. Cammalleri was a third liner that year.

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07-04-2011, 03:18 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by BaseballCoach View Post
Kristo was drafted at 18, Cammalleri at 20. Big difference. So you have Cammy's age off a bit.
At 19, even.

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07-04-2011, 03:47 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by BaseballCoach View Post
Kristo was drafted at 18, Cammalleri at 20. Big difference. So you have Cammy's age off a bit.

Also the 05-06 stats were inflated. That is the year Gionta scored 48 and Gomez 33-51-84. Cammalleri was a third liner that year.
Cammalleri was 3rd in scoring on the kings among forwards, 4th in ppg. I'm not sure he was a 3rd liner. As was already pointed out I think, Cammy was drafted at 19. Only a year between him and Kristo.

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07-04-2011, 03:49 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by JohnLennon View Post
Boston was .05 G/G from 9th in the league last year. Habs were .28 G/G away from tenth with a depleted core. I think that stat is a little overrated when it comes to winning the Cup.
Not at all. Throughout the history of the game the Cup has been won by teams that have the ability to score goals and recover from deficits. The 10th best offense hasn't usually been enough to cut it either so to say we were 24 goals away from still being pretty far away from Cup ready is hiding from the issue. I would say most fans here are in denial about that ongoing issue with goal scoring but that doesn't change the fact that it's an important element.

Having said that if a number of players have near-best seasons and Gomez gets to some reasonable level of production for a guy with his ice time (20G?) the gap can be partially bridged but I am not confident (or at least never count on the fact) that the planets will align perfectly.

More likely the team will continue with exciting yet unsuccessful campaigns until someone in a position of authority recognizes that Gomez is the booger hanging out of the team's nose.

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07-04-2011, 03:51 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by BaseballCoach View Post
Kristo was drafted at 18, Cammalleri at 20. Big difference. So you have Cammy's age off a bit.

Also the 05-06 stats were inflated. That is the year Gionta scored 48 and Gomez 33-51-84. Cammalleri was a third liner that year.
Cammalleri was drafted at 19, he turned 19 two weeks before the '01 draft.

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07-04-2011, 04:02 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by Agnostic View Post
Only one team in the 6 years since the lockout has won the Cup without having a top 5 offense (Ducks, #7). The Habs are 30 goals of production off the pace.

Replacing the 22nd offense in the league should not be all that difficult, getting it to the required level of effectiveness is. Gauthier should get on that dossier ASAP.
Wont happen until Martin is gone. Martin is too conservative on offense.

Look at how the Bruins effectively utilized their DMen for offensive purposes (and I am not talking about the PP). And then look how often our DMen were playing behind the blue line so that basically it was one shot and done.

Possession of the puck in our offensive zone is pitifully poor. Unless Martin is willing to change his philosophy and make this team more aggressive on offense, we will still be one of the bottom feeders when it comes to offensive output.......regardless of talent on this team.

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07-04-2011, 04:17 PM
  #34
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I don't expect more than a low probability of drafting a superstar with a pick in the middle of the first round. However, it irks me when the Habs waste their highest pick on a marginal minor leaguer or someone who is never signed at all. Not only does that failed pick not help the Habs but he's also worthless as trade bait.

It's not fair to say that all 30 NHL teams missed out on Subban with their first round picks (or their earlier second round picks) unless the Habs are included. Some of the other teams picked very good players of their own and have few regrets.

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07-04-2011, 04:36 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by habitue View Post
Right...

They took

Fischer over Giroux;
Maxwell over Lucic
Chouinard over Gagné
Tinordi over Etem
Urquhart over Bergeron
...and none of those guys are remotely close to superstars.

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07-04-2011, 05:03 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by Agnostic View Post
Only one team in the 6 years since the lockout has won the Cup without having a top 5 offense (Ducks, #7). The Habs are 30 goals of production off the pace.
What a coincidence; they left at least 30 goals on the table through sheer misfortune in 2010-2011.

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07-04-2011, 05:42 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by habitue View Post
Right...

They took

Fischer over Giroux;
Maxwell over Lucic
Chouinard over Gagné
Tinordi over Etem
Urquhart over Bergeron
lol so random

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07-04-2011, 05:48 PM
  #38
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What a coincidence; they left at least 30 goals on the table through sheer misfortune in 2010-2011.
This line has been written in various forms for some years now. I especially recall last year's thread when it was written to near consensus that conservative estimates would peg the Habs at 248 goals scored for. Waiting for the season where everyone plays their best under a condition of zero injuries while getting breaks and great goaltending will be a long wait indeed.

There needs to be insulation created to the external factors in the form of talent and depth, and with the Habs both are lacking in large enough quantities.

Gauthier is reportedly on vacation , a sign that he's satisfied with next season being as unsuccessful as this season.

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07-04-2011, 05:49 PM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hogtownhabsfan View Post
We have 2 potential superstars in Price and Subban.
Beaulieu as well is going to be just as good as Subby.. if not better.. he has one heck of a boomer for a shot.

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07-04-2011, 05:51 PM
  #40
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Seriously? Number one: we have Price and Subban who were recently drafted. Are they not potential superstars? Number two: how the hell do you expect a team that drafts in the bottom 15 every year to deliver a superstar? Give me a break. The drafting this team has done is stupendous, with draft steals such as Subban, Halak, Streit, etc.
Don't even put Price or Subban in the the 'superstar' status, just stop. Price was public enemy number 1 two years ago, people wanted him gone. Subban has proven nothing yet.

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They don't deserve ignorant bashing because some fans want more and more superstars. We have two potential studs, how is that not enough for now? We draft by needs, not by "WE NEED A BIG NAME SUPERSTAR FORWARD HERO TALENT MAGICIAN OMG!"
We have studs every year, and guess what? People still want that exciting forward who pulls them out of their seats, who has a chance at 40-50 goals. Pro sports is still show, it always will be.

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07-04-2011, 05:59 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by Agnostic View Post
This line has been written in various forms for some years now. I especially recall last year's thread when it was written to near consensus that conservative estimates would peg the Habs at 248 goals scored for. Waiting for the season where everyone plays their best under a condition of zero injuries while getting breaks and great goaltending will be a long wait indeed.
This 30-goal figure had nothing to do with injuries. It was based on the number of scoring chances created by the Habs with the players they had and everything, and the notion that they are an average finishing team (like they were last year). Their finish this season has been thoroughly below average, which is unfortunate but exactly that: bad fortune. In every sustainable aspect of offense, the Habs did very well; they merely couldn't buy a goal all year. Difficult to believe if you don't trust the numbers and don't go out and count scoring chances yourself, but it's true. The Habs couldn't score, but it certainly wasn't for lack of trying and it wasn't for lack of creating offensive chances, either.

If you figure the Habs are injured less in 2011-2012, then that 30-goal figure would actually grow. But even if they aren't, a 30-goal bump in goal-scoring would not be surprising. They are not unlike the 2008-2009 Bruins in this regard.

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07-04-2011, 06:01 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by habitue View Post
Right...

They took

Fischer over Giroux;
Maxwell over Lucic
Chouinard over Gagné
Tinordi over Etem
Urquhart over Bergeron
Umm... although it may happen eventually, none of those forwards is a superstar. And Giroulx probably is the only one with a legitimate chance to be one; although I will be interested in seeing how he does as the 1st line (or 1B) center.

Pretty funny that you have Etem there when he has yet to play a single shift of pro hockey.

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07-04-2011, 06:50 PM
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by habitue View Post
Right...

They took

Fischer over Giroux;
Maxwell over Lucic
Chouinard over Gagné
Tinordi over Etem
Urquhart over Bergeron
Fischer over Sanguinetti
Maxwell over Nigel Williams
Chouinard over Parker
Tinordi over nobody ,Tinordi rocks!
Urquhart over Tunik

Your point???
Hindsight is always 20/20...

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07-04-2011, 06:52 PM
  #44
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Beaulieu as well is going to be just as good as Subby.. if not better.. he has one heck of a boomer for a shot.
Does htat mean that Subby's days are numbered...
Cue Subban trade rumours!!!

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07-04-2011, 07:05 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by Habs View Post
Don't even put Price or Subban in the the 'superstar' status, just stop. Price was public enemy number 1 two years ago, people wanted him gone. Subban has proven nothing yet.



We have studs every year, and guess what? People still want that exciting forward who pulls them out of their seats, who has a chance at 40-50 goals. Pro sports is still show, it always will be.
I didn't say Subban has proven anything yet, I said him and Price were potential superstars and they are... And who cares how many people hated Price, it doesn't make him any worse or better than he already is. I don't get your point at all. No matter what, they are still potential superstars.

Of course everyone wants one of the best players in the game on their team... it doesn't mean we can get it. You still haven't answered me on how you expect drafting a legit superstar when you draft in the bottom 15 of the league every year. The Habs have done amazing drafting, and you were knocking them for not getting a superstar forward like Crosby or Ovechkin. Like I said, drafting is all hit and miss, and the person that criticizes a team for not drafting a superstar forward when they draft relatively low every single year is someone who doesn't know hockey or the nature of drafting in pro sports very well.

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07-04-2011, 07:42 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by habitue View Post
Right...

They took

Fischer over Giroux;
Maxwell over Lucic
Chouinard over Gagné
Tinordi over Etem
Urquhart over Bergeron
The bruins took Zach Hamill and Tommy Cross over Suban. Stuff happens.
Zach Hamil over Pacioretty and McDonagh.

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07-04-2011, 07:56 PM
  #47
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Originally Posted by JohnLennon View Post
I didn't say Subban has proven anything yet, I said him and Price were potential superstars and they are... And who cares how many people hated Price, it doesn't make him any worse or better than he already is. I don't get your point at all. No matter what, they are still potential superstars.
You don't get my point about wanting a superstar forward? You keep bringing up potential stars, on the backend, I want a sniper up front. Do you get it now?

Quote:
You still haven't answered me on how you expect drafting a legit superstar when you draft in the bottom 15 of the league every year. The Habs have done amazing drafting, and you were knocking them for not getting a superstar forward like Crosby or Ovechkin.
I never said 'draft' one, I said the team has failed to acquire one, via any means. I applaud Philly for having the guts to trade 2 franchise players for the promise of a couple young gems, something Montreal used to do but haven't done in a long time.

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07-05-2011, 12:38 AM
  #48
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I’ve on more than one occasion read on here how the Canadiens lack top 6 star prospects. While I won’t disagree that we do not have a Hall, Seguin, Nugent-Hopkins, can’t miss labeled player, we do have offensive prospects in the system. Propects more than capable of at the very minimum, second line production.
Pretty much every team in the league has those kinds of prospects though. Most clubs have more than we do and some have elite level talented prospects waiting to emerge.
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Originally Posted by angry pirate View Post
I’ve also seen an increasing sediment that by not drafting star potential forwards, Habs management is taking the offense towards disastrous territory.
I don't think anyone sees it as disastrous. Just mediocre.

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Originally Posted by angry pirate View Post
In actuality they are maintaining a healthy balance between the real top six vs the potential top six, while also maintaining out depth elsewhere. I believe everyone can agree it takes more than two lines to be a championship contender.
Sure it does, but it's a lot easier to win if your two lines are better than most teams in the league. Top level talent is an advantage right? It's a heck of a lot easier to win if you have a superstar forward leading the way for sure. Most cup winners have legit first line scoring on their rosters. Why try to do things the hard way?

Top level scoring is like anything else, it's not going to win a cup by itself. You need other ingredients too. But top line scoring is a key component to most championship clubs, so why try to avoid having it?

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07-05-2011, 08:27 AM
  #49
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Pretty much every team in the league has those kinds of prospects though. Most clubs have more than we do and some have elite level talented prospects waiting to emerge.
The Grass is greener argument just doesn't hold up. Dallas, Detroit, LA, Phoenix, San Jose, Nashville, Detroit, Chicago just to name a few Western teams who's offensive prospects are similar to ours. Most teams aren't stacked with these kinds of prospects, and very few have elite level talented offensive prospects waiting to emerge.

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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
Sure it does, but it's a lot easier to win if your two lines are better than most teams in the league. Top level talent is an advantage right? It's a heck of a lot easier to win if you have a superstar forward leading the way for sure. Most cup winners have legit first line scoring on their rosters. Why try to do things the hard way?

Top level scoring is like anything else, it's not going to win a cup by itself. You need other ingredients too. But top line scoring is a key component to most championship clubs, so why try to avoid having it?
But that's my entire point! We haven't tried to avoid having it. We have Cammy and Gionta locked up for 3 more years. Pacioretty showed last season he's a top 6 player. Pleks is 1 season removed from a 70pt 25 goal season and we went out and snagged Erik Cole for 4 years.

We haven't drafted forwards because our top 6 is locked in until 2014. When those contracts Expire we will have 6-8 guys who will be in their development window for breaking into second line roles. We will only need 2 to 3 of them to make it. With another 18 Million in Cap space available. All assuming we don't resign any of those contracts. Still assuming that we don't draft a forward in the next season who isn't capable of stepping right in.

Do we have a "sexy" offensive prospect in our system. No. But we do have plenty of offensive prospects with upside to fill our needs in the top six when these contracts expire.

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07-05-2011, 09:32 AM
  #50
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The Grass is greener argument just doesn't hold up. Dallas, Detroit, LA, Phoenix, San Jose, Nashville, Detroit, Chicago just to name a few Western teams who's offensive prospects are similar to ours. Most teams aren't stacked with these kinds of prospects, and very few have elite level talented offensive prospects waiting to emerge.



But that's my entire point! We haven't tried to avoid having it. We have Cammy and Gionta locked up for 3 more years. Pacioretty showed last season he's a top 6 player. Pleks is 1 season removed from a 70pt 25 goal season and we went out and snagged Erik Cole for 4 years.

We haven't drafted forwards because our top 6 is locked in until 2014. When those contracts Expire we will have 6-8 guys who will be in their development window for breaking into second line roles. We will only need 2 to 3 of them to make it. With another 18 Million in Cap space available. All assuming we don't resign any of those contracts. Still assuming that we don't draft a forward in the next season who isn't capable of stepping right in.

Do we have a "sexy" offensive prospect in our system. No. But we do have plenty of offensive prospects with upside to fill our needs in the top six when these contracts expire.
Would you forgive me if I said that that plenitude is not so apparent?

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