He's not going to get a three year deal. I think that's too long for Burke to take that kind of chance on him. It's tough for Mac to really expect the type of season he's going to have, let alone three.
An arbitrator would give him around 4.5M so you have to think his agent is not going to leave 1M+ on the table for his client. So Burke will have to pay up or offer a long term deal.
Originally Posted by Bullet Proof
Yeah, but who do u think is the better player between him and Upshall? if Upshall got 4mil/per then I absolutely think MacArthur deserves at least that much for lets say 2 years.
Evidence of UFA signings is inadmissible in the arbitration process. There's no way he'd be given a judgement as high as 4.5 per. There was a poster the other day that put up some really great comparables in terms of RFAs coming off of breakout years and the consensus seems to be an award of anywhere from 3 to 3.8 (max).
The real problem with letting him go to arbitration is that we then only have him under contract for one year and at the end he's a UFA (26 y/o) which, if he turns out to be the real deal, could cost us some serious coin a season from now. Maybe it's better to give the better term, say 3 years, and eat up a few of his UFA years at a lower hit ... something like the above posters are thinking in the Grabovski range.
Players in RFA under team control have a LOT less bargaining power. Arbitrators account for this, knowing that the player doesn't have the oppertunity to go to the market and take the contract from the highest bidder.
Mac wont get that much money for one good season, they look at the entire body of work.
He was ruled at 2.2 last season. I would expect that to incrase by less than double. If I had to guess, the ruling is going to be somewhere between 3.5-4. Worst case scenario Burke signs him to a 1 year deal at that price with the opportunity for him to make more in the future.