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Will This Be Sean Avery's Last Season As A Ranger?

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Old
07-07-2011, 02:02 PM
  #26
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Posted this in two other threads, and no one bit, so I'll try for a third time (LOL):

Shooting percentage is a stat that tends to stay relatively constant from season to season for each particular player. If a guy has an abnormally high shooting percentage one year, you can reasonably expect it to regress to the mean the next year. The same holds true for the opposite: an extremely low shot percentage will likely increase to a more normal level.

Last season, Avery shot a horrific 2.2%. Now, has his shot magically disappeared? It was never great to begin with, but it looked pretty much the same as it always did, to me at least. Prior to last season, his shooting percentage was about 8.3%. Had he scored on 8.3% of his shots last year, he would have scored 11 goals--giving him 32 points in 72 games, which is not bad for a guy playing a hair over 11 minutes per night.

If he reverts to his career norm (which is more likely than not), it would be a nice bonus for the team.

----

That said, I see no room for him past this year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wolfgaze View Post
The issue is that Avery has never been a 1st line player for any team. His shooting percentage has declined drastically over the last 3 seasons... It was at 2-3% last season.... That's not a player you want playing with your best playmaker on your top line...
No it hasn't. It was 8.1% in 08-09 and 7.9% in 09-10, right at his career average. Last season was attrocious, yes, but there's no pattern to be seen.

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07-07-2011, 02:04 PM
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Avery takes way too much flak for the salary he makes. You'd think he gets paid Drury money.

It's obvious that Torts has something against Sean. Did he even do anything to deserve having his minutes slashed last season? I don't recall him taking that many stupid penalties last season, and he was actually pretty decent at creating chances. At one point, I think he was even the team leader in assists. Then, he gets his minutes slashed, and even spends some games in the press box during the course of the season. I really didn't understand it.

I'm not some Sean Avery apologist. However, I think he gets the short end of the stick on this board. He's always been a good teammate, willing to throw down when he has to. And he has more skill than people give him credit for. I could totally see him being used on a line with Richards and Gaborik similarly to how Vancouver uses Burrows on the Sedin line. In fact, if people don't want to break up the Pack Line, he's pretty much the man for the job. He has the grit and agitation, mixed with just enough speed and skill to hang with Richards and Gabby and not be a black hole. Wolski on LW would make that line soft as charmin.

The fact of the matter is that Avery is useless so long as he is put into a position to be such. He's shown he can play with talented linemates and add a dimension to the line that is difficult to matchup with. He should have a chance to show he deserves to be on the team, especially when he really hasn't done anything to play himself out of the league.

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07-07-2011, 02:19 PM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Emma Royd View Post
Posted this in two other threads, and no one bit, so I'll try for a third time (LOL):

Shooting percentage is a stat that tends to stay relatively constant from season to season for each particular player. If a guy has an abnormally high shooting percentage one year, you can reasonably expect it to regress to the mean the next year. The same holds true for the opposite: an extremely low shot percentage will likely increase to a more normal level.

Last season, Avery shot a horrific 2.2%. Now, has his shot magically disappeared? It was never great to begin with, but it looked pretty much the same as it always did, to me at least. Prior to last season, his shooting percentage was about 8.3%. Had he scored on 8.3% of his shots last year, he would have scored 11 goals--giving him 32 points in 72 games, which is not bad for a guy playing a hair over 11 minutes per night.

If he reverts to his career norm (which is more likely than not), it would be a nice bonus for the team.

----

That said, I see no room for him past this year.



No it hasn't. It was 8.1% in 08-09 and 7.9% in 09-10, right at his career average. Last season was attrocious, yes, but there's no pattern to be seen.
It was 10% with the Rangers 3 seasons ago according to NHL.com. A drop from 10% to 2.2% over 3 seasons is a drastic decline in my books...

2007 - 2008: 12%
2008 - 2009: 10%
2009 - 2010: 7.9%
2010 - 2011: 2.2%

See the trend developing here? His % has declined every year over the last 4 years.... This past season, he had the lowest shooting % on the team among the players with goals. Why do we think it's going to bounce back to a normal % when it's been declining 4 seasons straight? I just fail to see why it's a good idea to skate a bottom 6 forward who is not strong defensively and frequently off-sides, on our top line....


Last edited by wolfgaze: 07-07-2011 at 02:24 PM.
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07-07-2011, 02:22 PM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Revelation View Post
Avery takes way too much flak for the salary he makes. You'd think he gets paid Drury money.

It's obvious that Torts has something against Sean. Did he even do anything to deserve having his minutes slashed last season? I don't recall him taking that many stupid penalties last season, and he was actually pretty decent at creating chances. At one point, I think he was even the team leader in assists. Then, he gets his minutes slashed, and even spends some games in the press box during the course of the season. I really didn't understand it.

I'm not some Sean Avery apologist. However, I think he gets the short end of the stick on this board. He's always been a good teammate, willing to throw down when he has to. And he has more skill than people give him credit for. I could totally see him being used on a line with Richards and Gaborik similarly to how Vancouver uses Burrows on the Sedin line. In fact, if people don't want to break up the Pack Line, he's pretty much the man for the job. He has the grit and agitation, mixed with just enough speed and skill to hang with Richards and Gabby and not be a black hole. Wolski on LW would make that line soft as charmin.

The fact of the matter is that Avery is useless so long as he is put into a position to be such. He's shown he can play with talented linemates and add a dimension to the line that is difficult to matchup with. He should have a chance to show he deserves to be on the team, especially when he really hasn't done anything to play himself out of the league.
This x1000

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07-07-2011, 02:34 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Revelation View Post
Avery takes way too much flak for the salary he makes. You'd think he gets paid Drury money.

It's obvious that Torts has something against Sean. Did he even do anything to deserve having his minutes slashed last season? I don't recall him taking that many stupid penalties last season, and he was actually pretty decent at creating chances. At one point, I think he was even the team leader in assists. Then, he gets his minutes slashed, and even spends some games in the press box during the course of the season. I really didn't understand it.

I'm not some Sean Avery apologist. However, I think he gets the short end of the stick on this board. He's always been a good teammate, willing to throw down when he has to. And he has more skill than people give him credit for. I could totally see him being used on a line with Richards and Gaborik similarly to how Vancouver uses Burrows on the Sedin line. In fact, if people don't want to break up the Pack Line, he's pretty much the man for the job. He has the grit and agitation, mixed with just enough speed and skill to hang with Richards and Gabby and not be a black hole. Wolski on LW would make that line soft as charmin.

The fact of the matter is that Avery is useless so long as he is put into a position to be such. He's shown he can play with talented linemates and add a dimension to the line that is difficult to matchup with. He should have a chance to show he deserves to be on the team, especially when he really hasn't done anything to play himself out of the league.
Amen brother...amen

Everyone saying he doesn't deserve a shot at that top line is countering with Fedotenko...Ruslan Fedotenko.

Inferno you said if Avery was our top line LWer we might as well start a draft thread...really? Come on. And then you petitioned for FEDS. Come on.

It sucks that in Torts' world Feds will get the last look over Avery, and it sucks in Torts' world and this NHL that Avery has become what he has to survive.

He's in a contract year, he's gotta learn to find that line and tip-toe it again or he's gone I'm not arguing that. But I'll be damned if anyone on this board thinks Avery won't give it his all IF he gets the chance to do it.

21 even strength assists were fourth on the team. Led the team in assists to Gaborik with 6.

He SHOULD have just as much of a chance as WW, Dubi, Zuccs, and Feds do in camp to grab that spot, but I won't be surprised if he doesn't get it.

Sign me up:

Avery - Richards - Gaborik
Dubi - AA - Cally
Feds - Stepan - Zuccs
Rupp - Boyle - Prust

Inferno, you can star that draft thread whenever you want

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07-07-2011, 02:40 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by silverfish View Post

Everyone saying he doesn't deserve a shot at that top line is countering with Fedotenko...Ruslan Fedotenko.
Umm, Feds has played with both Richards and Crosby before in the past, has he not? He's also one of the better forwards on the team defensively. He's a big body and good at winning puck battles along the boards.... Where is the issue? The reason Feds name was brought up was because of Andrew Gross' blog yesterday, pointing out that Feds & Richards played together on the same line in TB.


Last edited by wolfgaze: 07-07-2011 at 02:47 PM.
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07-07-2011, 02:42 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by silverfish View Post
Amen brother...amen

Everyone saying he doesn't deserve a shot at that top line is countering with Fedotenko...Ruslan Fedotenko.

Inferno you said if Avery was our top line LWer we might as well start a draft thread...really? Come on. And then you petitioned for FEDS. Come on.

It sucks that in Torts' world Feds will get the last look over Avery, and it sucks in Torts' world and this NHL that Avery has become what he has to survive.

He's in a contract year, he's gotta learn to find that line and tip-toe it again or he's gone I'm not arguing that. But I'll be damned if anyone on this board thinks Avery won't give it his all IF he gets the chance to do it.

21 even strength assists were fourth on the team. Led the team in assists to Gaborik with 6.

He SHOULD have just as much of a chance as WW, Dubi, Zuccs, and Feds do in camp to grab that spot, but I won't be surprised if he doesn't get it.

Sign me up:

Avery - Richards - Gaborik
Dubi - AA - Cally
Feds - Stepan - Zuccs
Rupp - Boyle - Prust

Inferno, you can star that draft thread whenever you want
i didnt petition for feds...i just think hes a better option. hell MZA would be a better option. there are better options all over the place than Sean Avery.

if anything ive been relentlessly petitioning for the Rangers to go and get an elite first line left winger.

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07-07-2011, 02:45 PM
  #33
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I'd like to see Feds with Richards and Wolski.

Gaborik Boyle Avery please.

I really wish people would stop selling Fedotenko short. It leads me to the conclusion that people would rather read stats than watch hockey.

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07-07-2011, 02:46 PM
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Originally Posted by CHGoalie72 View Post
I'd like to see Feds with Richards and Wolski.

Gaborik Boyle Avery please.
*pukes* Next!

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07-07-2011, 02:48 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CHGoalie72 View Post
I'd like to see Feds with Richards and Wolski.

Gaborik Boyle Avery please.

I really wish people would stop selling Fedotenko short. It leads me to the conclusion that people would rather read stats than watch hockey.
Or, we watch hockey, realize that Fedotenko's strong point is his defensive game. We also realize that when Avery is on his game he's one of the best passers and one of the most offensively engaged guys this team has.

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07-07-2011, 02:50 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wolfgaze View Post
It was 10% with the Rangers 3 seasons ago according to NHL.com. A drop from 10% to 2.2% over 3 seasons is a drastic decline in my books...

2007 - 2008: 12%
2008 - 2009: 10%
2009 - 2010: 7.9%
2010 - 2011: 2.2%

See the trend developing here? His % has declined every year over the last 4 years.... This past season, he had the lowest shooting % on the team among the players with goals. Why do we think it's going to bounce back to a normal % when it's been declining 4 seasons straight? I just fail to see why it's a good idea to skate a bottom 6 forward who is not strong defensively and frequently off-sides, on our top line....
It was 10% with the Rangers in 08-09, and just over 6% with Dallas. Overall, about 8%.

When you look at each year from his first full season on, this is what you see:

7.2%
7.9%
7.2%
12%
8.1%
7.9%
2.3%

I see two outliers there--12%, when he scored 15 goals in 57 games, and 2.3%, when he scored 3 goals total. What do outliers tell you when examining statistics? Not a whole hell of a lot. Again, there's no trend in these numbers. He's a 7.6% shooter for his career--the season before the high outlier, he was below his average. No pattern to see.

Why do I think it's going to bounce back to normal? Because he's a guy that consistently scores on about 7.5% of his shots.

Shooting percentage fluctuates from season to season based on circumstance and a lot of luck. When you see a massive increase or a massive decrease, it's extremely likely that the following season the number will revert to a more normal level--barring a trend where a player is steadily improving in that area, or steadily declining. There's no incline or decline to Avery's numbers, just two outliers sandwiched around average numbers for him.


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07-07-2011, 02:51 PM
  #37
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I always wondered how the Ranger's faithful perceived Mr. Avery. Good insight here. I would love him on my Leafs. I'd put him on a line with Colby Armstrong. That said, Avery and the Leafs will never ever ever ever ever be due to the whole Phaneuf thing.

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07-07-2011, 03:04 PM
  #38
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I always wondered how the Ranger's faithful perceived Mr. Avery. Good insight here. I would love him on my Leafs. I'd put him on a line with Colby Armstrong. That said, Avery and the Leafs will never ever ever ever ever be due to the whole Phaneuf thing.
You never know. Stranger things have happened. I think the Maple Leafs are one of the few teams other than the Rangers that Sean would go to and I don't just think that this might be Sean's last year with the Rangers but maybe his last season period--because I don't see him playing for a team in a city he doesn't want to be in. I can see him retiring and pursuing other interests if he can't go to a city he likes.

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07-07-2011, 03:11 PM
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I think that this will end up being his last season with the Rangers and perhaps his last in the league. His reputation proceeds him terribly, and his play suffers because if he plays with the edge needed for him to be successful, he is going to get a penalty.

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07-07-2011, 03:13 PM
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I'd like to see Feds with Richards and Wolski.

Gaborik Boyle Avery please.

I really wish people would stop selling Fedotenko short. It leads me to the conclusion that people would rather read stats than watch hockey.
Fedotenko would be an absolute disaster on our top line. This isn't 7 years ago when TB was winning the cup. Both TB and PIT fans couldn't wait to get rid of Feds, and it was largely because he played so horribly with skill players. He played with Malkin in Pittsburgh, and was a -17 the year before he came here. The fans HATED him.

Why not just let him play a role we know he can succeed at? Just let him be on the 3rd or 4th line, not worry too much about making plays, and just play a gritty, 2 way game.

Feds is an easy player to admire. He gives us hard minutes and can chip in the occasional goal. Don't let that fool you into thinking he can be effective on the top line, because he can't, and he won't.

As for the Avery-Boyle-Gaborik suggestion, is that some kind of a joke? Boyle has zero playmaking ability. He's either a 3/4 C, or a 2/3/4 W. He would never be able to center Gaborik. For someone who so arrogantly says we should watch hockey instead of looking at stats, you really don't seem to grasp how to properly form a lineup.

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07-07-2011, 03:26 PM
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i have zero desire to avery OR feds on the top line

none are viable permanent solutions, though both could fill in for a game or two and be decent

i dont buy any of this "tort's anti-avery agenda" BS...torts has constantly given sean chances and gives him ice when he's performing well...clearly his criteria for what qualifies as playing well may differ from yours, but that doesnt mean he hasnt given the dude a shot

there was a time when it looked like avery could potentially be a solid contributer, unfortunately, that time has passed and he is not that player

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07-07-2011, 03:36 PM
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i dont buy any of this "tort's anti-avery agenda" BS...torts has constantly given sean chances and gives him ice when he's performing well...clearly his criteria for what qualifies as playing well may differ from yours, but that doesnt mean he hasnt given the dude a shot

there was a time when it looked like avery could potentially be a solid contributer, unfortunately, that time has passed and he is not that player
Yes agreed.

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07-07-2011, 03:51 PM
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I wouldn't be shocked if he retired.
Why would he retire at 31???

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07-07-2011, 03:51 PM
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Avery is fast, and tricky at times. But he's worn out his welcome everywhere but NY. Without Dallas picking up half his salary he wouldn't even be here.

I like him, and what he brings to the table when he's on... but I think NYR have moved on from what they need him to bring. If you look at the roster they're trying to infuse skill to compliment the grit and the youth.

I think we'll see WW get a shot at #1 LW, we'll see Dubi get a shot, we'll see Feds get a shot, and maybe MZA. If those don't work out Avery may get a chance but I'd think that it would be a temp bandaid and not a solution. Sather would try to grab someone via trade for sure IMHO.

Avery may be done in NY (maybe in the league) unless his next contract is a severe paycut.

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07-07-2011, 03:53 PM
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I've been advocating to have avery on the first line with richards and gaborik for a while now. And i'm not talking give it a shot as in a few shifts/2 games max I'm talking like a 5-10 game stint and see how he can do. Torts needs to stop acting so childish and let players develop chemistry and not yank them as soon as they go offsides once or make a mistake. Plus if someone takes a run at gabby or richards avery knows it'd be his job to drop the mits

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07-07-2011, 04:01 PM
  #46
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Why would he retire at 31???
Because he has a lot of other interests outside of hockey? Not saying its likely, but it wouldn't be shocking either.

He's made around $19-20 million dollars in his career so far, he's not hurting for money. And with his connections, he could probably make a decent living pursuing his other interests as well.

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07-07-2011, 04:05 PM
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Yeah, and I doubt there's going to be a ton of interest in him. Particularly if he sits half the season in the press box. Too much of a stigma attached to Avery for most clubs, I'd think.

I don't think he'll walk away from the game, but if he did, I wouldn't be at all shocked.

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07-07-2011, 04:07 PM
  #48
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Avery, along with Wolski, Dubinsky, and possibly Zuccarello and Fedotenko will get looks on the Richards line.

Its impossible to speculate on his financial situation considering his possible lifestyle choices, and how we recently were informed that Tiki Barber is bankrupt at age 36.

That said, for such a mediocre player he gets far more attention, be it love or hate, than he deserves. I don't think a thread during the summer of 06 about whether 06-07 would be Jason Ward's last as a Ranger would have garnered as much angst. Avery was always overhyped by a segment of NYR fans because he is a loudmouth. Just like Christensen and Drury got ripped because they were reserved. Way of the world, I suppose.

For the record, Christensen outscored Avery last year in many fewer games, for half the cap hit.

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07-07-2011, 04:08 PM
  #49
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Avery still has enough skill and skating to compete as an NHL player--it's not that he's washed up but that he may be becoming redundant on our team--unless he can get back to the nasty agitating player he used to be. Secondarily I don't see him wanting to play for too many other teams and likewise some of those who he'd might consider playing for not wanting him at all and thirdly I think he's one player that could walk away from the game and pursue other interests. He's a different kind of cat than most other professional atheletes.

On the question of who will be on our top line. It's quite possible that Torts will at least part of the time have Richards on one line and Gaborik on another. Kind of spread the wealth--two very dangerous scoring lines instead of one seriously dangerous line. There are reasons for this to happen--chemistry could be one, line matching another--getting a Gaborik for instance away from the other teams best checkers--or shutdown pairing.

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07-07-2011, 04:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Emma Royd View Post
Yeah, and I doubt there's going to be a ton of interest in him. Particularly if he sits half the season in the press box. Too much of a stigma attached to Avery for most clubs, I'd think.

I don't think he'll walk away from the game, but if he did, I wouldn't be at all shocked.
He was passed over by a number of other teams before we grabbed him off re-entry waivers 2 years ago. I can't see how he has done anything to make teams around the league regret their decision to stay as far away from him as possible.

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