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Jair Jurrjens is MVP material

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Old
07-10-2011, 04:48 PM
  #51
Hot Carlson
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I'm pretty sure this thread was created for Ubaldo around this time last year. Look how that turned out.

He won't win MVP either way but the Cy Young is in the bag for Jurrjens if his ERA stays where it is, but the odds are against it. Honestly, I think the Cy is going to go to whoever the best pitcher on the NL-East winning team ends up being. Could be Jurrjens or Hanson, could be Halladay, Lee or Hamels.

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07-10-2011, 05:30 PM
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ixcuincle View Post
I've been trying to wean myself off ERA but I'm addicted. Even though Sabremetrics have taken over baseball, ESPN and MLB.com, as well as team broadcasts, continue to evaluate pitchers using wins and ERA.

Perhaps I should go somewhere more indie
because most of the people doing the analysis for espn and mlb are former players who like insulting "made up stats" and relying on wins and era instead of actually working for a living.

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07-10-2011, 05:38 PM
  #53
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Can someone give me the explanation as to how exactly ERA is a bad stat? I can understand Wins not being very reliable because you can give up 10 runs as long as your team gets 11 and still win, so no argument there (although you still need to take that stat into consideration when judging a pitcher imo). I don't understand the argument against ERA, though.

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07-10-2011, 05:46 PM
  #54
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The explanation was given on the 2nd page. The only reason I still use it is 1) I'm a dinosaur and 2) It's become so prevalent on broadcasts and mainstream web sites, and I don't want to go indie.

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Three of the major components that contribute to ERA are park factors, team defense, and luck. A stat that relies heavily on the entire team is not a good metric to judge individual players. You wouldn't use total goals allowed to judge a goalie (unless you're an idiot), so why would you use ERA to judge a pitcher? It's the same thing. ERA would only be a "good" stat if the pitcher was the only factor in run prevention. He isn't, not by a longshot.

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07-10-2011, 05:51 PM
  #55
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Definitely overlooked the explanation, my mistake. Thanks though. The argument makes a lot more sense now.

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07-10-2011, 08:03 PM
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yoshimitsu View Post
It isn't hard to understand, but I'll explain anyway.

Wins and ERA are bad stats for individual players because they take into account elements beyond the control of the pitcher. Three of the major components that contribute to ERA are park factors, team defense, and luck. A stat that relies heavily on the entire team is not a good metric to judge individual players. You wouldn't use total goals allowed to judge a goalie (unless you're an idiot), so why would you use ERA to judge a pitcher? It's the same thing. ERA would only be a "good" stat if the pitcher was the only factor in run prevention. He isn't, not by a longshot.

Stats like FIP, xFIP, tRA, and SIERA do not include things beyond the control of the pitcher, thus they paint a significantly more accurate picture. Defense independent pitching stats have been statistcally proven, multiple times, to be better indicators of future performance than ERA.

Jurrjens has had an excellent season thus far, but if you examine the most accurate, advanced metrics, you will see that the Phillies' big three has clearly been better.
here's what i don't get about this though. if the defense really played that big of a role in era then that would mean the brave's defense would have to be significantly better than that of the phillies to account for jurrjens' era to be better than any of the phillies pitchers because of it, yet the braves have committed 10 more errors this year than the phillies have.

also can't luck play a role in any statistic?

i can understand the ballpark argument because it's a lot easier to hit a home run in citizen's bank than it is at turner field, but at the same time i'd say it's easier to hit singles and doubles at turner.

i understand era isn't the end all be all and there are other statistics that more accurately represent how well a pitcher can get people out without putting the ball in play or whatever, but if the pitcher's job is to not let the other team score, and jurrjens does that better than anyone else, how is he not the best pitcher?

i guess that's the part that doesn't make sense to me. i really don't care if every single out is a ground out if it stops the other team from scoring. maybe that's just me though.

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07-10-2011, 08:24 PM
  #57
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also how exactly are defense independent stats determined?

does someone just decide how good a team's defense is and factor that into some formula or does it just subtract any out where the ball was put in play?

or does it factor in the hitting percentage of the opponent when the ball is put into play?

i understand that things like fip would say that the phillies pitchers are better, but i don't understand how they determine these numbers.

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07-10-2011, 08:40 PM
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhodes 81 View Post
also how exactly are defense independent stats determined?

does someone just decide how good a team's defense is and factor that into some formula or does it just subtract any out where the ball was put in play?

or does it factor in the hitting percentage of the opponent when the ball is put into play?

i understand that things like fip would say that the phillies pitchers are better, but i don't understand how they determine these numbers.
It's a very complicated thing.


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07-10-2011, 08:45 PM
  #59
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I always hate sabremetric vs traditional stat arguments. They never go anywhere.

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07-10-2011, 08:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhodes 81 View Post

i understand that things like fip would say that the phillies pitchers are better, but i don't understand how they determine these numbers.
If you are genuinely curious about Sabre stats and how they are found, a good site to learn from:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/

From personal experience, after you understand Sabre stats and follow the game through there, it becomes more enjoyable.

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07-10-2011, 08:53 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by Oilbleeder View Post
From personal experience, after you understand Sabre stats and follow the game through there, it becomes more enjoyable.
Same. It becomes pretty easy to tell who's good and who isn't once you get the hang of the stats.

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07-10-2011, 08:56 PM
  #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oilbleeder View Post
If you are genuinely curious about Sabre stats and how they are found, a good site to learn from:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/

From personal experience, after you understand Sabre stats and follow the game through there, it becomes more enjoyable.
They provide a completely different way of analyzing the game. The problem is when people try to use them as a replacement for traditional stats all together.

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07-10-2011, 09:48 PM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhodes 81 View Post
here's what i don't get about this though. if the defense really played that big of a role in era then that would mean the brave's defense would have to be significantly better than that of the phillies to account for jurrjens' era to be better than any of the phillies pitchers because of it, yet the braves have committed 10 more errors this year than the phillies have.
The skill of the defense is only one aspect. I would say, based on what I've seen and the stats, that the Phillies and Braves are a push defensively.

The real issue with ERA is that once the ball leaves the pitchers hand, the resultant outcome is beyond his control. The difference between a routine ground ball out and a seeing-eye single may be no more than inches, and once there is a man on base, anything can happen.

Here's an example.

Pitcher A has two outs and the bases are empty. Pitcher A makes a good pitch, which the batter hits on the ground toward the gap between the SS and the 3B. Fortunately for pitcher A, his 3B was shaded close enough that he was able to field the ball and throw out the runner at first. Inning over.

Pitcher B has two outs and the bases are empty. Pitcher B makes a good pitch, which the batter hits on the ground toward the gap between the SS and the 3B. Unfortunately for pitcher B, his 3B was shaded toward the line rendering him unable to make the play. Now there is a man on. Pitcher B still has the chance pitch his way out of the jam, but as you can see, he is in the jam in the first place because of something that was beyond his control. This is the inherent problem with ERA.

You can refer to this as whatever you'd like. Luck, randomness, whatever. The point is, once the pitcher makes his pitch, there are numerous things that can occur for which he has no control.

This is not a problem for DIPS.

Quote:
also can't luck play a role in any statistic?
To some degree, I suppose. The point is to create better statistics by mitigating the effects of luck to the greatest extent. ERA is better than Wins and it's certainly better than having no metric at all, but there are stats that are better than ERA, hence why I pay little attention to it.

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i can understand the ballpark argument because it's a lot easier to hit a home run in citizen's bank than it is at turner field, but at the same time i'd say it's easier to hit singles and doubles at turner.
http://statcorner.com/team.php?team=...=2011&leag=N_L
http://statcorner.com/team.php?team=...=2011&leag=N_L

CBP is definitely a hitter's park, while Turner Field is a bit of a pitcher's park. Turner field looks like it inflates triples, especially for left handers, but that's about it.

Quote:
i understand era isn't the end all be all and there are other statistics that more accurately represent how well a pitcher can get people out without putting the ball in play or whatever, but if the pitcher's job is to not let the other team score, and jurrjens does that better than anyone else, how is he not the best pitcher?
Because he hasn't. A pitcher's job is to prevent runs from being scored, but he does that by making pitches that the batter is either unable to hit or unable to make good contact with. Roy Halladay has done the best job at putting batters in a position to make outs. What happens once the ball is in play is not up to him.

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i guess that's the part that doesn't make sense to me. i really don't care if every single out is a ground out if it stops the other team from scoring. maybe that's just me though.
Strikeouts have a higher value than any other possible out because they don't put the ball in play, thus removing the possibility that the defense makes a mistake, the batter gets lucky or the runner beats the throw.

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Originally Posted by Rhodes 81 View Post
also how exactly are defense independent stats determined?
FIP: ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP-IBB))-(2*K))/IP + X. The X is simply a number that correlates FIP to an ERA scale to make it easier to understand.

xFIP is calculated the same way FIP is calculated except xFIP assumes a 10.6% HR/FB rate for all pitchers. Here's an explanation for why: Link.

The other two major stats, tRA and SIERA, are calculated with similar formulas.

Quote:
does someone just decide how good a team's defense is and factor that into some formula or does it just subtract any out where the ball was put in play?
Team defense ratings would typically be based on UZR. UZR is the best defensive metric there is, but it isn't perfect and it only goes back about a decade, making it impossible to use retroactively. Here's an explanation of how UZR is calculated: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big...urn=mlb-212311

Quote:
Originally Posted by Korean Devil 23 View Post
They provide a completely different way of analyzing the game. The problem is when people try to use them as a replacement for traditional stats all together.
Why would that be a problem? Everything that is described by traditional statistics is described by Sabremetrics, only more accurately. You aren't losing any information. The only argument for traditional stats is just that, tradition.


Last edited by Yoshimitsu: 07-10-2011 at 10:00 PM.
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Old
07-10-2011, 11:12 PM
  #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yoshimitsu View Post
The skill of the defense is only one aspect. I would say, based on what I've seen and the stats, that the Phillies and Braves are a push defensively.

The real issue with ERA is that once the ball leaves the pitchers hand, the resultant outcome is beyond his control. The difference between a routine ground ball out and a seeing-eye single may be no more than inches, and once there is a man on base, anything can happen.

Here's an example.

Pitcher A has two outs and the bases are empty. Pitcher A makes a good pitch, which the batter hits on the ground toward the gap between the SS and the 3B. Fortunately for pitcher A, his 3B was shaded close enough that he was able to field the ball and throw out the runner at first. Inning over.

Pitcher B has two outs and the bases are empty. Pitcher B makes a good pitch, which the batter hits on the ground toward the gap between the SS and the 3B. Unfortunately for pitcher B, his 3B was shaded toward the line rendering him unable to make the play. Now there is a man on. Pitcher B still has the chance pitch his way out of the jam, but as you can see, he is in the jam in the first place because of something that was beyond his control. This is the inherent problem with ERA.

You can refer to this as whatever you'd like. Luck, randomness, whatever. The point is, once the pitcher makes his pitch, there are numerous things that can occur for which he has no control.

This is not a problem for DIPS.
that makes sense i guess. it does make a huge difference having players as good defensively as mcclouth, schafer, and gonzalez, not to mention a lot of jurrjens' starts were with david ross as catcher, and it's really, really hard to steal a base against ross.
Quote:
To some degree, I suppose. The point is to create better statistics by mitigating the effects of luck to the greatest extent. ERA is better than Wins and it's certainly better than having no metric at all, but there are stats that are better than ERA, hence why I pay little attention to it.
also makes sense. i guess i'm just old school
Quote:
http://statcorner.com/team.php?team=...=2011&leag=N_L
http://statcorner.com/team.php?team=...=2011&leag=N_L

CBP is definitely a hitter's park, while Turner Field is a bit of a pitcher's park. Turner field looks like it inflates triples, especially for left handers, but that's about it.
funny, it always seemed like it was a lot harder for the outfielders to cover all the ground and aloud for a lot more bloop singles at the ted but i guess not

Quote:
Because he hasn't. A pitcher's job is to prevent runs from being scored, but he does that by making pitches that the batter is either unable to hit or unable to make good contact with. Roy Halladay has done the best job at putting batters in a position to make outs. What happens once the ball is in play is not up to him.
i guess it seems like a pitcher can still be good even if his style of pitching involves him having confidence that his defense won't screw up (which wasn't always jair's style, he used to be much more of a power pitcher and you can see how he has improved since he changed) but i can understand if you see differently.

Quote:
Strikeouts have a higher value than any other possible out because they don't put the ball in play, thus removing the possibility that the defense makes a mistake, the batter gets lucky or the runner beats the throw.
also makes sense

Quote:
FIP: ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP-IBB))-(2*K))/IP + X. The X is simply a number that correlates FIP to an ERA scale to make it easier to understand.

xFIP is calculated the same way FIP is calculated except xFIP assumes a 10.6% HR/FB rate for all pitchers. Here's an explanation for why: Link.

The other two major stats, tRA and SIERA, are calculated with similar formulas
.
interesting. obviously punishes you for walks (which would help jurrjens) and rewards strikeouts (which would really hurt jurrjens).

the only problem with this is just how much emphasis it places on strikeouts. i understand the reason for this, but it would make guys like greg maddux and tom glavine look like just really good pitchers instead of the sure fire hall of famers they are. i'd like it better if it was 1.5*k instead of 2 but i understand why it isn't.

Quote:
Team defense ratings would typically be based on UZR. UZR is the best defensive metric there is, but it isn't perfect and it only goes back about a decade, making it impossible to use retroactively. Here's an explanation of how UZR is calculated: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big...urn=mlb-212311
yeah i know UZR is really useful for determining the true defensive worth of a player (much better than just errors) but it isn't involved with any of the adjusted pitching stats, right?

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07-10-2011, 11:48 PM
  #65
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MVP's play everyday, not once or twice a week.

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07-13-2011, 06:06 PM
  #66
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Cy Young - Yes

MVP - No

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07-15-2011, 11:41 PM
  #67
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Originally Posted by GKJ View Post
Who was the last pitcher to be MVP? A pitcher would have to win at least 25 games in order to even get serious consideration for it.
Pitchers don't win games, teams win games.

An ERA of 1.50 over 250 innings with 250 strikeouts might do it.

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07-15-2011, 11:52 PM
  #68
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Originally Posted by Yoshimitsu View Post
It isn't hard to understand, but I'll explain anyway.

Wins and ERA are bad stats for individual players because they take into account elements beyond the control of the pitcher. Three of the major components that contribute to ERA are park factors, team defense, and luck. A stat that relies heavily on the entire team is not a good metric to judge individual players. You wouldn't use total goals allowed to judge a goalie (unless you're an idiot), so why would you use ERA to judge a pitcher? It's the same thing. ERA would only be a "good" stat if the pitcher was the only factor in run prevention. He isn't, not by a longshot.

.
Wins are garbage, ERA is a very good stat.

Team defense is a negligible effect. All MLB teams have competent defenses, they don't alter a pitcher's ERA in any significant way. Luck? Seriously? Not buying into that. The only point you can make is park factors and, there is some effect but I can't see any park changing an ERA more than 10% up or down.

When you combine ERA with IP you can tell a pitcher's true value to a team.

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07-16-2011, 12:15 AM
  #69
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All MLB teams have competent defenses, they don't alter a pitcher's ERA in any significant way. Luck? Seriously? Not buying into that.
You're kidding, I hope.

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07-16-2011, 12:45 AM
  #70
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His stats are good but idk. There is just something about him that makes him come off as not very dominant. I'd take one of Lee, Halladay, or Hamels over him anytime.

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07-16-2011, 12:50 AM
  #71
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His stats are good but idk. There is just something about him that makes him come off as not very dominant.
Below-average strikeout rate. The big three in Philly are all far more impressive than Jurrjens in that respect.

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07-16-2011, 12:56 AM
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Below-average strikeout rate. The big three in Philly are all far more impressive than Jurrjens in that respect.
I'm also sure that there are some sabre-metric stats that prove this claim. I just can't understand them.

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07-16-2011, 01:05 AM
  #73
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Well he's been quite lucky. His BABIP is .256 and he's stranding more runners than league average and what he's shown over his career so far (84% strand rate). His xFIP is almost 2 full points higher than his ERA. Signs are pointing towards him crashing down soon. Still a good pitcher but he's pitching over his head right now.

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07-17-2011, 12:54 PM
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The Cy Young is Halladay's to lose.

Monster SO/BB, high GB%...that's about as much as an individual pitcher can do in his own power.

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07-17-2011, 02:19 PM
  #75
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Nope haha.

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