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J.T. Miller has Change of Heart, Going to OHL not NCAA

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07-14-2011, 08:07 PM
  #76
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Originally Posted by Fitzy Duke of NY View Post
Because all NCAA programs are the same.

ND has a great coach and a long history of developmental successes.
Been hearing the same about the BC program for 3 years now. Kreider didnt improve much from season 1 to season 2.

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07-14-2011, 08:09 PM
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This shows just how little you know about the NCAA. There have been players upwards of 25 years old in the NCAA (a lot of guys go the BCHL/USHL route and turn freshman at the age of 20 or 21 even).

The age in the NCAA tends to skew much further towards 21+ than it does in the CHL where it tends to skew much further towards 18 and 19. CHL teams can only have two overagers on their team at any time.

Players in the NHL are MUCH more physically mature than they are in the CHL. Bigger, stronger and tougher competition in regards to the physical nature of the game.
Would LOVE for you to get me a stat on how many players are 23 and over in the NCAA. Maybe 2-5%? And if they are playing in the NCAA still at that age, they probably aren't very good.

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07-14-2011, 08:09 PM
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Really? Go ask Kreider. Or ask someone who knows something about the NCAA since obviously you dont have much of a clue.
You're clearly the one without a clue. Just because BC distributes icetime based on seniority doesn't mean that's how all college programs work. Also, nowhere has it been proven to be fact that the NCAA is a longer development path.

Both path's have their pros and cons,those pros and cons can also differ from player to player, so to say one way or another that a certain development path is always the #1 way to do it is rediculous.

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07-14-2011, 08:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Jonathan. View Post
This shows just how little you know about the NCAA. There have been players upwards of 25 years old in the NCAA (a lot of guys go the BCHL/USHL route and turn freshman at the age of 20 or 21 even).

The age in the NCAA tends to skew much further towards 21+ than it does in the CHL where it tends to skew much further towards 18 and 19. CHL teams can only have two overagers on their team at any time.

Players in the NHL are MUCH more physically mature than they are in the CHL. Bigger, stronger and tougher competition in regards to the physical nature of the game.
There have been a handful of 26 year old players in the NCAA before, it is true.

Quite frankly, there is very little to be said against college hockey except for York's BC program and the Atlantic division, which is poor enough to be more comparable with tier 2 junior hockey.

You pitt the best 20 or so NCAA programs against the best of the major junior clubs, and the NCAA would dominate. Based on experience, physical maturity, and it has some of the best coaching as well.

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07-14-2011, 08:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Fitzy Duke of NY View Post
There have been a handful of 26 year old players in the NCAA before, it is true.

Quite frankly, there is very little to be said against college hockey except for York's BC program and the Atlantic division, which is poor enough to be more comparable with tier 2 junior hockey.

You pitt the best 20 or so NCAA programs against the best of the major junior clubs, and the NCAA would dominate. Based on experience, physical maturity, and it has some of the best coaching as well.
I'm not arguing that the NCAA is worse then the OHL though. Im arguing that for this kids development to the NHL I feel the OHL is a better fit and a much faster approach to reach his goal.

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07-14-2011, 08:11 PM
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Originally Posted by The Healthy Scratch View Post
Would LOVE for you to get me a stat on how many players are 23 and over in the NCAA. Maybe 2%? And if they are playing in the NCAA still at that age, they probably aren't very good.
Its higher than that.

Part of what programs who aren't as big a draw in recruitment names do is bring in kids who are 21 years old as freshman in an attempt to stay more competitive. As of late, St. Lawrence has become one of those programs. As a result, you have leagues building up with kids who admittedly don't have quite the same high end skill but are good hockey players in men's frame.

A kid like McIlrath stands out in the juniors because of his size. He wouldn't stand out nearly as much in the NCAA.

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07-14-2011, 08:12 PM
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Originally Posted by The Healthy Scratch View Post
Really? Go ask Kreider. Or ask someone who knows something about the NCAA since obviously you dont have much of a clue.
Maybe you don't have a clue. Go ask Toews,Oshie,Parise,Zajac,Greene,and on and on. You make it sound like the NCAA is far inferior. Not the case.

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07-14-2011, 08:12 PM
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Originally Posted by The Healthy Scratch View Post
I'm not arguing that the NCAA is worse then the OHL though. Im arguing that for this kids development to the NHL I feel the OHL is a better fit and a much faster approach to reach his goal.
Point can be made, but as far as i'm concerned if he can play in the AHL in one season i'm not going to be agonized one way or the other.

I do know for a fact that North Dakota has one of the top 3 programs in the country. So its never a poor choice.

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07-14-2011, 08:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Fitzy Duke of NY View Post
Point can be made, but as far as i'm concerned if he can play in the AHL in one season i'm not going to be agonized one way or the other.

I do know for a fact that North Dakota has one of the top 3 programs in the country. So its never a poor choice.
It wouldnt have been a poor choice. But again IMO, i just like the OHL route better. I know that opinion is not shared by all.

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07-14-2011, 08:15 PM
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Originally Posted by The Healthy Scratch View Post
Been hearing the same about the BC program for 3 years now. Kreider didnt improve much from season 1 to season 2.
Kreider has his own issues and isn't a god on skates.

York is an overrated coach, Boston College is an overrated program. They achieve, largely in part to a few diamonds in the rough developing (Gionta, ect) and play high octane hockey that works in the hockey east. But whenever the Western leagues have a good solid physical team to put forward they get spanked.

I wouldn't wish Boston College on any player.

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07-14-2011, 08:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Fitzy Duke of NY View Post
Kreider has his own issues and isn't a god on skates.

York is an overrated coach, Boston College is an overrated program. They achieve, largely in part to a few diamonds in the rough developing (Gionta, ect) and play high octane hockey that works in the hockey east. But whenever the Western leagues have a good solid physical team to put forward they get spanked.

I wouldn't wish Boston College on any player.
Fair enough, I shouldnt have compared ND to BC.

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07-14-2011, 08:19 PM
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Now i'm not heartbroken that Miller has gone OHL. I don't think it'll kill his development, in fact, based on what i've read about the kid, I don't think he is going to let much get in the way of an NHL career.

But part of what we're trying to do is make the NCAA the dominant league as far as prospect development goes, so I would be interested to read a potential J.P. quote on why he chose otherwise.

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07-14-2011, 08:20 PM
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I don't really think that Miller had a bad choice here. I mean, UND is consistently one of the top programs in the NCAA every year and producing many NHLers. But if Miller wants to make the next step quicker, the OHL may be better.

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07-14-2011, 08:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Fitzy Duke of NY View Post

I do know for a fact that North Dakota has one of the top 3 programs in the country. So its never a poor choice.
What are the top 5-6 college programs?

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07-14-2011, 08:25 PM
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What are the top 5-6 college programs?
I'd say the topsix year in and out would look something like this not in order:

North Dakota
Wisconsin
Boston College
Denver
Notre Dame
Minnesota

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07-14-2011, 08:27 PM
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Originally Posted by NYGBleedBlueNYR View Post
What are the top 5-6 college programs?
This has my own personal bias, but...

1. Boston University
2. Miami of Ohio
3. North Dakota
4. Michigan
5. University of Maine in Orono
6. Denver

Some programs that were great but have peetered out a bit are Minnesota, Lake Superior State, and Wisconsin, and some up-and-comers are schools like Colorado College (Though they will be held back still by their horrible semester format) and Yale.

Of course I could spend all day raking through them, but historically these have been the best of the best, on a year to year basis.

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07-14-2011, 08:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fitzy Duke of NY View Post
Kreider has his own issues and isn't a god on skates.

York is an overrated coach, Boston College is an overrated program. They achieve, largely in part to a few diamonds in the rough developing (Gionta, ect) and play high octane hockey that works in the hockey east. But whenever the Western leagues have a good solid physical team to put forward they get spanked.

I wouldn't wish Boston College on any player.
BC is absolutely the most successful NCAA Hockey program since 2000. 3 National Championships and 7 Frozen Four appearances; think about that for a second. Not to mention 6 Hockey East Championships.

You want to debate NHL development, fine. But to say that they are not one of the best programs in the country of that they consistently get "spanked" by Western teams is absolutely ridiculous, and false.

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07-14-2011, 08:38 PM
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Originally Posted by The Healthy Scratch View Post
Would LOVE for you to get me a stat on how many players are 23 and over in the NCAA. Maybe 2-5%? And if they are playing in the NCAA still at that age, they probably aren't very good.
I have no idea where to find that stat, so I just did some quick math. This is for Hockey East, an extremely competitive conference:

259 total players in 2010, 37 who were 23 or older = 14.3%.

Again, I don't know where to find the stats, but the average NCAA hockey player in any given year is somewhere between 20 and 21 years old. This is just me glancing at about 20 rosters sorted by age, nothing official.

The average CHL player is somewhere around 18 years old, again from sorting rosters by age and approximating.

There's a pretty large difference in physical maturity between an 18-year old and a 20/21-year old, which is why a lot of us here prefer our more physically advanced players go the NCAA route. Otherwise, they'll just be steamrolling kids that aren't nearly as physically developed (on average), a la Evgeny Grachev.

Doing some fairly basic research, it seems that just about 30% of NHL players during the 2010-2011 season came from the NCAA hockey ranks. About 45% of them come from Major Junior--the OHL, QMJHL, and WHL combined. There has been about a 5% swing towards NCAA players over the past decade, when college players made up about 25% of NHL players. The rest come from Europe or elsewhere.

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07-14-2011, 08:45 PM
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Originally Posted by HatTrick Swayze View Post
BC is absolutely the most successful NCAA Hockey program since 2000. 3 National Championships and 7 Frozen Four appearances; think about that for a second. Not to mention 6 Hockey East Championships.

You want to debate NHL development, fine. But to say that they are not one of the best programs in the country of that they consistently get "spanked" by Western teams is absolutely ridiculous, and false.
True, like I said before they have had the Siouxs number the last decade.

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07-14-2011, 08:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Emma Royd View Post
I have no idea where to find that stat, so I just did some quick math. This is for Hockey East, an extremely competitive conference:

259 total players in 2010, 37 who were 23 or older = 14.3%.

Again, I don't know where to find the stats, but the average NCAA hockey player in any given year is somewhere between 20 and 21 years old. This is just me glancing at about 20 rosters sorted by age, nothing official.

The average CHL player is somewhere around 18 years old, again from sorting rosters by age and approximating.

There's a pretty large difference in physical maturity between an 18-year old and a 20/21-year old, which is why a lot of us here prefer our more physically advanced players go the NCAA route. Otherwise, they'll just be steamrolling kids that aren't nearly as physically developed (on average), a la Evgeny Grachev.

Doing some fairly basic research, it seems that just about 30% of NHL players during the 2010-2011 season came from the NCAA hockey ranks. About 45% of them come from Major Junior--the OHL, QMJHL, and WHL combined.
And if you want to see physical hockey just watch a Sioux game. One of the reasons I follow them,that and they are my home state team.

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07-14-2011, 08:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fitzy Duke of NY View Post
Now i'm not heartbroken that Miller has gone OHL. I don't think it'll kill his development, in fact, based on what i've read about the kid, I don't think he is going to let much get in the way of an NHL career.

But part of what we're trying to do is make the NCAA the dominant league as far as prospect development goes, so I would be interested to read a potential J.P. quote on why he chose otherwise.
Who are you referring to in regards to this statement?

If it were up to the Rangers, they would prefer none of their prospects enter the NCAA and all develope at the CHL Level.

Until some changes are made to NCAA rules across the board in terms of what they can and cannot accept they will NEVER be a dominant development league.

I don't mind the college product as they better prepare players to play a two way game, but it would be nice to have a player come in that's already been developed offensively.

I think that is where the CHL is better than the NCAA, allowing kids to develope their offensive game.

Are there exceptions to every rule, yes, the Parise's and Toews prove that, but for every polished offensive college player there are 5 times as many CHL Offensive developed players playing in the NHL as well.

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07-14-2011, 08:51 PM
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I was happy he was going to NoDak, but the OHL is never a bad decision either, so I'm pretty excited.

A lot of people were upset that Miller's upside might not be that high. I think going to the OHL will give him a better shot at honing his offensive talents, but North Dakota would have been a good choice as well.

I was excited wherever he chose, both we great options. A complete 180 from Kreider, who's options were BC or the Q.

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07-14-2011, 09:23 PM
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Hakstol confirmed J.T. Miller is gone. Didn't want to say much more than that.
https://twitter.com/#!/SchlossmanGF/...83884902780928

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Official word from Plymouth Whalers GM & coach Mike Vellucci: "I have nothing to report on JT (Miller)"
https://twitter.com/#!/sunayas/status/91679697989156864

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07-14-2011, 09:26 PM
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Both Clark and Gorton believe center is his best position. If you go to Blueshirts United, they have post-draft video from both Clark and Gorton saying pretty much the same thing.
thats what they said, but with richards, anisimov, stepan, and boyle already in the nhl and other centers like lindberg on the way, putting miller on the wing still remains a big possibility.

but either way from the projected lines i had seen, he was probably going to be playing wing at UND also. so not a huge difference from that standpoint.

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07-14-2011, 09:37 PM
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lots of pros and cons of ncaa vs chl and i would have been very happy with him at ND. but the one thing i really like about this move is that it basically guarantees that he'll turn pro next season and be in either ny or hartford. and i love the fact that miller's attitude seems to be 'i'll do whatever it takes to get to the nhl asap'

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