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So Shea wants a short term deal ?

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07-20-2011, 10:17 AM
  #301
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Originally Posted by Shea Weber View Post
"It's just negotiations" - David Poile

We'll know soon enough.

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07-20-2011, 01:52 PM
  #302
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well, most everyone seems to think a stud Dman isn't worth as much a stud forward, so Stammer signing can't be good news to Shea's agent maxing the cash - hence, the "almost stalemate". What a load - if Shea wants to stay and he'll do min 4 years, he's gonna' get about $7.1. If not, Poile best land a good forward.

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07-20-2011, 02:12 PM
  #303
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Originally Posted by deanwormer View Post
... if Shea wants to stay and he'll do min 4 years, he's gonna' get about $7.1. ...
If that's the offer, Shea may as well hold out. The arbitrator will give him that much. And in two years Shea can make 8.5+ or 9 per year for a long deal somewhere else. Risking injury and not getting paid in the third and fourth year from now, but for 4 million more over just a two year span and then a long bigger money deal, it may be worth it.

Although I would think the Stamkos deal helps bring Shea's number closer to what we were offering, maybe they will get four years done at mid 7s. I see that 6.5 for Stamkos as good news for us.

Edit: Oops. I see it was 7.5. I had heard 6.5. Not as good news for us. Shea probably is asking 8 if Stamkos got 7.5 and isn't as close to UFA as Shea is, which is when some teams really overpay. Still, surely the two sides can't be too far apart, unless Shea wants to be paid as if he already is an UFA.


Last edited by OpenWheel: 07-20-2011 at 02:22 PM.
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07-20-2011, 02:19 PM
  #304
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Originally Posted by OpenWheel View Post
If that's the offer, Shea may as well hold out. The arbitrator will give him that much. And in two years Shea can make 8.5+ or 9 per year for a long deal somewhere else. Risking injury and not getting paid in the third and fourth year from now, but for 4 million more over just a two year span and then a long bigger money deal, it may be worth it.

Although I would think the Stamkos deal helps bring Shea's number closer to what we were offering, maybe they will get four years done at mid 7s. I see that 6.5 for Stamkos as good news for us.
you really think the Arbitrator will give him that much ?

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07-20-2011, 02:26 PM
  #305
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When has an agent ever sounded optimistic during negotiations?

What exactly is a short or long term deal? 3 years? 5? 15? Vague terms and posturing media statements have everyone paranoid.

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07-20-2011, 02:27 PM
  #306
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave is a killer View Post
you really think the Arbitrator will give him that much ?
7? Sure, without blinking.

That would seem to me to be the high end of any comparable restricted free agent numbers. But Shea mets all those intangibles they say they factor in, stats, durability, service length with the league and team, intangibles such as leadership (hey, Shea's the captain!) impact in the previous season (Shea played a big role in helping the Preds make the second round for the first time ever).

I saw some Toronto writer quoted once here as some sort of knowledgable source say an arbitrator would pay him 8. But that seems too high to me since Shea is restricted, I don't see any comparables nearly that high. But 7, I think so.


Last edited by OpenWheel: 07-20-2011 at 02:36 PM.
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07-20-2011, 02:27 PM
  #307
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave is a killer View Post
you really think the Arbitrator will give him that much ?

I think he will get at least 7 in arbitration.

I think it all boils down to how flexible Shea wants to be.


I see now openwheel has corrected Stamkos number

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07-20-2011, 02:37 PM
  #308
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I still firmly believe that a deal will get done before arbitration. It may not be a deal we will like (short term), but I can't see it getting to the hearing.

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07-20-2011, 02:48 PM
  #309
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Next shocker: This makes it to arbitration.

Everything else has gone 180 so why not?

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07-20-2011, 03:23 PM
  #310
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Originally Posted by JohniusMaximus View Post
Next shocker: This makes it to arbitration.

Everything else has gone 180 so why not?
I would certainly hope not, as that means the next excuse everybody's going to use for stealing Weber for the next several months will be "he went through arbitration, and that's a rough process that would leave a bitter taste in his mouth, so he'll want to leave ASAP!"

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07-20-2011, 05:44 PM
  #311
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It would put Poile in a deep hole if Shea gets to arbitration and is awarded a two year deal.

that is a nightmare scenario because he will almost certainly get UFA money but at the same time his trade value will plummet due to the fact that a team trading for him cant assume they will have him for more than the two remaining years until he is a UFA, and also poile couldnt even begin to try to extend him until next summer when his trade value would be even lower.


So I see Poile pulling out all the stops to avoid arbitration, with his last ditch fallback plan being a one year deal that would at least allow Poile to continue negotiating a long term extension during this year.

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07-20-2011, 06:53 PM
  #312
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Saw this column Mirtle did http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...rticle2103658/ and I wonder if this could be part of the potential stalemate we might be seeing. Hard for the Preds to put too much bonus up front I would think.

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07-20-2011, 06:58 PM
  #313
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Originally Posted by lstcyr View Post
Saw this column Mirtle did http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...rticle2103658/ and I wonder if this could be part of the potential stalemate we might be seeing. Hard for the Preds to put too much bonus up front I would think.
I read that as well ... Damn, we need some deep pocketed owners to step in and take over

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07-20-2011, 11:15 PM
  #314
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Originally Posted by Dave is a killer View Post
I read that as well ... Damn, we need some deep pocketed owners to step in and take over
I think that scenario is a bit of a myth anymore.

if we spent to the cap(and thereby forfeited our revenue sharing money) this team would probably lose 20-30 million a year. I dont know of anyone with pockets deep enough that they could or would accept that for any significant length of time

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07-21-2011, 08:07 AM
  #315
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PredsV82 View Post
That is a nightmare scenario because he will almost certainly get UFA money but at the same time his trade value will plummet due to the fact that a team trading for him cant assume they will have him for more than the two remaining years until he is a UFA, and also poile couldnt even begin to try to extend him until next summer when his trade value would be even lower.
While I agree that it's undesirable, it's hardly going to cause Weber's value to plummet. There are plenty of teams who will be suitors for Weber during free agency that would pay a very steep price for his services for the next two years plus exclusive negotiating rights for an extended period.

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07-21-2011, 08:12 AM
  #316
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With a full work-week before arbitration, I assume/hope next week will be a very busy week for both sides.

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07-21-2011, 08:46 AM
  #317
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave is a killer View Post
I read that as well ... Damn, we need some deep pocketed owners to step in and take over
If the NHL is truly serious about having parity between smaller market teams and larger teams (one of the many reasons why the NFL is so popular), then this type of front loading will have to be stopped or else revenue sharing will have to be increased to NFL levels. Since the cap made the huge leap to over $50M in 07/08 (up from $39M in the post lockout year), the conference finals have been represented by 14 cap capable teams as opposed to 2 non-cap capable teams.

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07-21-2011, 09:05 AM
  #318
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Originally Posted by SmokeyClause View Post
If the NHL is truly serious about having parity between smaller market teams and larger teams (one of the many reasons why the NFL is so popular), then this type of front loading will have to be stopped or else revenue sharing will have to be increased to NFL levels. Since the cap made the huge leap to over $50M in 07/08 (up from $39M in the post lockout year), the conference finals have been represented by 14 cap capable teams as opposed to 2 non-cap capable teams.
I would think this would be the biggest issue to be resolved in the next CBA.

I doubt think anyone envisioned the cap going up anywhere near this much when the last negotiations were completed.

the problem is the players are going to contend that they were the ones who "gave" last time.

I just wonder if there is enough "pie" to go around even if the money making clubs agreed to significantly increase revenue sharing.

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07-21-2011, 10:32 AM
  #319
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Originally Posted by PredsV82 View Post
I would think this would be the biggest issue to be resolved in the next CBA.

I doubt think anyone envisioned the cap going up anywhere near this much when the last negotiations were completed.

the problem is the players are going to contend that they were the ones who "gave" last time.

I just wonder if there is enough "pie" to go around even if the money making clubs agreed to significantly increase revenue sharing.
I don't see that happening at all

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07-21-2011, 10:33 AM
  #320
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Originally Posted by lstcyr View Post
Saw this column Mirtle did http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...rticle2103658/ and I wonder if this could be part of the potential stalemate we might be seeing. Hard for the Preds to put too much bonus up front I would think.
Didn't really notice this as an issue until you posted this linked article. It's kind of hard to figure out the bonuses unless you look at each specific player, so this was good info. If I'm Weber (or another player of relative stature), no doubt I'd be looking for a structured deal to give me more bucks up front. I definitely can see this being a stumbling block over just years of contract or $$$ per year like we were thinking.

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07-21-2011, 10:34 AM
  #321
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Originally Posted by PredsV82 View Post
I just wonder if there is enough "pie" to go around even if the money making clubs agreed to significantly increase revenue sharing.
Of course, there is enough pie. The players are guaranteed only 54-57% of revenues. If the owners can't manage their businesses around those numbers, then they're terrible managers. (Wait! They are. Sorry.)

Being an accountant, there are numerous ways to make the numbers show you losing money even when you're not.

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07-21-2011, 10:41 AM
  #322
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Am I the only one wondering (hoping?) that the delay in Weber's contract is the fact that they're trying to secure all of the big 3 at once so that we know our expenses for the next several seasons?

I realize that's a pipe dream, and unfortunately, unless they're really all just having a grand time playing together, it will be extremely difficult to keep them all.

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07-21-2011, 10:43 AM
  #323
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Originally Posted by JR303 View Post
Am I the only one wondering (hoping?) that the delay in Weber's contract is the fact that they're trying to secure all of the big 3 at once so that we know our expenses for the next several seasons?

I realize that's a pipe dream, and unfortunately, unless they're really all just having a grand time playing together, it will be extremely difficult to keep them all.
I believe its been said that the negotiations with Suter haven't started yet.

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07-21-2011, 10:54 AM
  #324
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I believe its been said that the negotiations with Suter haven't started yet.
That's not what we've been told. We were told that they had discussions already, prior to the end of the season.

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07-21-2011, 11:05 AM
  #325
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That's not what we've been told. We were told that they had discussions already, prior to the end of the season.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I thought it was more along the lines of just touching base with his agent and gauging Suter's interest in staying in Nashville kind of thing---not actual discussion of terms. Remember, Poile said during the early part of least season that he would be discussing a contract with Weber , but then we found out that for one reason or another, meetings got cancelled (on the Nov. MTL or TOR trip I believe was one of those occasions??) or nothing was discussed. I think Poile's "conversations" with agents get overplayed a bit.

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