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Salary Arbitration (Callahan on July 28, Dubinsky signs before hearing)

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Old
07-21-2011, 11:39 PM
  #951
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Overpaying Callahan by about half a mil to 1 mil is not "crazy"

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07-22-2011, 12:12 AM
  #952
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I don't see how Cally signs for more money than Dubi unless you add another year. They are wayyyyy too close in numbers and importance to give more unless the years are different. These are the 3 contracts I think Cally would realistically sign:

1) 4 years/16.8 mil (obviously same as Dubi)
2) 4 years/17 mil
3) 5 years/22.5 mil

He'll probably get 4.2 or 4.25 if he signs for 4 years. He'll get 4.5 if it's 5 years. I don't see us resigning him 6 or more years.

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07-22-2011, 06:24 AM
  #953
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Ryan Callahan feels Dubinsky's contract lays the groundwork for his deal.

Quote:
"I'd love to avoid it," he said. "I don't want to go to arbitration and I don't think the Rangers want to either. Hopefully we can get something done."
Quote:
"I love playing for the Rangers," he said. "I love living in New York City, and playing in front of the fans in Madison Square Garden is second to none."

He could become an unrestricted free agent next summer but prefers to sign a long-term deal that will keep him in New York.

"I like where I am," he said. "Obviously the deal has to be right but I love New York and that's where I want to play."
http://www.democratandchronicle.com/...Ctext%7CSports

He will also become captain of an original 6 team. What's there not to like?

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Old
07-22-2011, 06:48 AM
  #954
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No worries!

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Old
07-22-2011, 06:50 AM
  #955
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dubi Has Arrived View Post
I don't see how Cally signs for more money than Dubi unless you add another year. They are wayyyyy too close in numbers and importance to give more unless the years are different. These are the 3 contracts I think Cally would realistically sign:

1) 4 years/16.8 mil (obviously same as Dubi)
2) 4 years/17 mil
3) 5 years/22.5 mil

He'll probably get 4.2 or 4.25 if he signs for 4 years. He'll get 4.5 if it's 5 years. I don't see us resigning him 6 or more years.
We bought 2 years of UFA in the Dubinsky deal. If we give Callahan 4 years, we're buying 3 UFA years. That extra UFA year increases what we'll have to pay.

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07-22-2011, 06:53 AM
  #956
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Emma Royd View Post
We bought 2 years of UFA in the Dubinsky deal. If we give Callahan 4 years, we're buying 3 UFA years. That extra UFA year increases what we'll have to pay.
I have no problem slightly overpaying for Cally. If he hit the wire as a UFA, he would probably be getting deals around 5 - 5.5 mil

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07-22-2011, 07:00 AM
  #957
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Emma Royd View Post
We bought 2 years of UFA in the Dubinsky deal. If we give Callahan 4 years, we're buying 3 UFA years. That extra UFA year increases what we'll have to pay.
Exactly. You need to break it down like this:

Dubinsky will earn:
$3.75m (RFA year)
$3.75m (RFA year)
$4.65m (UFA year)
$4.65m (UFA year)

$4.2m cap hit

So a comparable 4 year deal for Callahan would be:
$3.75m (RFA year)
$4.65m (UFA year)
$4.65m (UFA year)
$4.65m (UFA year)

$4.425m cap hit

I'd try to get an additional UFA year from Callahan, making it:

$3.75m (RFA year)
$4.65m (UFA year)
$4.65m (UFA year)
$4.65m (UFA year)
$4.65m (UFA year)

$4.47m cap hit

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07-22-2011, 07:05 AM
  #958
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Yep, and I think the neighborhood of $4.4M-$4.5M is right where Callahan's deal will fall.

It's not paying him more because he's necessarily a better player, rather it's just that one RFA/UFA year difference.

I'm not referring to anyone in particular here, but I feel like a lot of people aren't getting how these contract terms are created. They're very specific numbers, based on comparable players and comparable contract statuses. It's not just a number that the team or anyone else thinks is "fair"--the Rangers might have felt that $3M per season was fair for Dubinsky, but comparable contracts signed this year and in past years dictated that above $4M was his value.

Now, every once in a while you'll see a guy sign for significantly more than what comparable players would suggest, but rarely do you see a guy sign for less than what his comparables would indicate.

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07-22-2011, 07:36 AM
  #959
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I don't think he's worth more money than Dubi. Thinking $3,875,000- $4,250,000 is the range. 3 or 4 year deal.

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07-22-2011, 07:40 AM
  #960
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lion Hound View Post
I don't think he's worth more money than Dubi. Thinking $3,875,000- $4,250,000 is the range. 3 or 4 year deal.
Look at azrok's post a few above yours. If you view Callahan and Dubinsky as equal players worth--in a vacuum--equal money, then Callahan is going to end up with more money in the end. It's the UFA years again...we're buying away more from Callahan than Dubinsky, which will drive the price higher for Ryan.

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07-22-2011, 07:47 AM
  #961
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Emma Royd View Post
Look at azrok's post a few above yours. If you view Callahan and Dubinsky as equal players worth--in a vacuum--equal money, then Callahan is going to end up with more money in the end. It's the UFA years again...we're buying away more from Callahan than Dubinsky, which will drive the price higher for Ryan.
Precisely. Even if you think Callahan is worth less than Dubinsky (I do not), he's going to end up with a higher cap hit due to UFA status (assuming equal years).

Even if you pay Callahan $3.5m for his RFA year (as compared to $3.75m for Dubinsky) and $4.5m for his UFA years (as compared to $4.65m for Dubinsky) you end up with the following.

$3.5m (RFA year)
$4.5m (UFA year)
$4.5m (UFA year)
$4.5m (UFA year)

$4.25m cap hit

Still higher than Dubinsky's hit.

EDIT: A 3 year deal using Dubinsky's numbers would yield:

$3.75m (RFA year)
$4.65m (UFA year)
$4.65m (UFA year)

$4.35m cap hit (still higher than Dubinsky)

Absent a substantially different term of years, I can't fathom any situation that ends up with Callahan having a lower cap hit due to the extra RFA year Dubinsky had.

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07-22-2011, 07:54 AM
  #962
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God I hope Cally and Duby will get different terms on their deals.. althought it is quite unlikely.

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07-22-2011, 08:14 AM
  #963
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The only problem with these deals and overpayments are that when Anisimov, Stepan, and really whoever else we grow come up for raises as well, for the former 2 it will be in as few as 2 years, we are going to be in a tough spot to keep all of our guys.

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07-22-2011, 08:30 AM
  #964
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RangerBoy View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by from the article
Callahan has been a full-time NHLer for the past four seasons. The speedy, always-hustling right winger from Greece scored 23 goals, 25 assists and 48 points in 60 games last season.
Wait, what.

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Old
07-22-2011, 08:32 AM
  #965
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Wait, what.
It's a neighborhood / suburb of Rochester.

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Old
07-22-2011, 08:34 AM
  #966
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SLU Hockey View Post
The only problem with these deals and overpayments are that when Anisimov, Stepan, and really whoever else we grow come up for raises as well, for the former 2 it will be in as few as 2 years, we are going to be in a tough spot to keep all of our guys.
Except that they haven't overpaid yet on any one of their RFAs, in my opinion.

This is precisely how you manage that problem - you give guys 4-5 years deals coming out of RFA that lock them in at mid-tier prices for a loooong time. Some will wind up being a little overpriced, most will likely be fair or bargains by the time you reach the end of the deal. Then, keep feeding the pipeline with new kids through smart drafting and you've got a really sustainable model.

Do you have some tough decisions when those 4-5 year deals roll off? Potentially. Although, I think they will be fewer than people anticipate due to potential salary roll backs in the next CBA, increasing cap numbers and the fact that most of these guys won't justify significant raises above their current cap number at the ends of their deals. Yes, if the team is super successful, you may have to trade one or two or even let one or two walk as they get to the end of their deals, but again, if you're drafting well, you'll need to be creating room for the next crop anyway.

The real, major issue with this team is - as it has always been - the true TOP end talent, the first line goal scoring talent. Where do they come from? And how do you fit them in? As long as we're drafting outside the top 10, they'll likely have to come from UFA and that's a problem as they will almost always be priced at the top of the market...

Still, I'm liking where this team is now (and where I think it will be for at least the next three years) more than at any time in about 15 years.

Then again, it is the offseason, when hope springs eternal.

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Old
07-22-2011, 08:46 AM
  #967
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Quote:
Originally Posted by azrok22 View Post

I'd try to get an additional UFA year from Callahan, making it:

$3.75m (RFA year)
$4.65m (UFA year)
$4.65m (UFA year)
$4.65m (UFA year)
$4.65m (UFA year)

$4.47m cap hit
Great analysis Azrok!

Almost identical to Andrew Ladd's contract.

BP

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Old
07-22-2011, 09:03 AM
  #968
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Originally Posted by Trxjw View Post
It's a neighborhood / suburb of Rochester.
Ah, OK. I guess that makes sense because the paper is a Rochester paper, didn't notice that at first

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07-22-2011, 09:38 AM
  #969
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Ah, OK. I guess that makes sense because the paper is a Rochester paper, didn't notice that at first
Still sloppy work on the part of the writer. How many people who read that article will be aware of that?

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07-22-2011, 09:50 AM
  #970
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Still sloppy work on the part of the writer. How many people who read that article will be aware of that?
Its probably because of his normal audience being in/around the Rochester area.

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07-22-2011, 10:09 AM
  #971
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Still sloppy work on the part of the writer. How many people who read that article will be aware of that?
No different than a NYC paper referring to Bohemia

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07-22-2011, 10:12 AM
  #972
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No different than a NYC paper referring to Bohemia
Or an Ontario paper referring to London.

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07-22-2011, 10:20 AM
  #973
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Originally Posted by HagelinForPresident View Post
Or an Ontario paper referring to London.
I'll admit that when I first started following prospects, I once thought to myself, "Man, why are so many top prospects playing in England?"

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Old
07-22-2011, 10:20 AM
  #974
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I'll admit that when I first started following prospects, I once thought to myself, "Man, why are so many top prospects playing in England?"
hahaha no doubt.

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07-22-2011, 10:22 AM
  #975
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No different than a NYC paper referring to Bohemia
That would bother me too. Or saying someone is from Paris when they are from Paris, Texas. It's just lazy writing.

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