HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Eastern Conference > Metropolitan Division > Philadelphia Flyers
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

The Little Things Fail to Add Up For Flyers Offseason

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
07-22-2011, 12:48 PM
  #176
DUHockey9
Registered User
 
DUHockey9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Hogwarts
Country: United States
Posts: 4,472
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Meltzer is pretty bad whenever he talks about stats in anything more than a shallow way. His blog this morning was wrong, and that critique us dead on.
I just read it. I fail to see how it's "wrong". It's fairly vague overall, so I don't really see what could be wrong exactly. Essentially he said, there is something to be said for quality of shots. Is that so wrong?

DUHockey9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-22-2011, 12:51 PM
  #177
Bob Clarke Fan Club
Registered User
 
Bob Clarke Fan Club's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Country: Canada
Posts: 4,985
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by DUHockey9 View Post
I just read it. I fail to see how it's "wrong". It's fairly vague overall, so I don't really see what could be wrong exactly. Essentially he said, there is something to be said for quality of shots. Is that so wrong?






That statement is absolutely correct, just ask all the back ups that have looked like Vezina winners against us over the last couple of years.

Bob Clarke Fan Club is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-22-2011, 12:56 PM
  #178
Jester
Registered User
 
Jester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: St. Andrews
Country: Scotland
Posts: 34,075
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by DUHockey9 View Post
I just read it. I fail to see how it's "wrong". It's fairly vague overall, so I don't really see what could be wrong exactly. Essentially he said, there is something to be said for quality of shots. Is that so wrong?
1. His statements about context (as noted in the blog response) sniff of someone that should just avoid talking about stats in any meaningful way.

2. His whole commentary on shots v. quality shots is right in line with so much here: it fails to grasp that statistical distribution assumes noise, and that stuff washes out over time.

It reads exactly like the stuff that was being written 10 years ago about advanced stats in baseball.

Jester is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-22-2011, 01:10 PM
  #179
Jester
Registered User
 
Jester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: St. Andrews
Country: Scotland
Posts: 34,075
vCash: 500
So, just read through the twitter argument. What's funny about is that an advanced stat backs up Meltzer's argument that Zherdev wasn't that great despite some rather high individual numbers.

Zherdev's GFON/60 was 2.40, 9th on the team. His G/60 was 1.29, which was 3rd on the team. Essentially those numbers in tandem suggest that Z wasn't a team player and was hurting his lines production, even if he was scoring a lot of goals.

BTW, Briere (1st in G/60), Carter (2nd), and Hartnell (4th) finished 1, 2, 3 in GFON/60.

Jester is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-22-2011, 01:57 PM
  #180
GKJ
Global Moderator
Entertainment
 
GKJ's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Do not trade plz
Country: United States
Posts: 111,102
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
So, just read through the twitter argument. What's funny about is that an advanced stat backs up Meltzer's argument that Zherdev wasn't that great despite some rather high individual numbers.

Zherdev's GFON/60 was 2.40, 9th on the team. His G/60 was 1.29, which was 3rd on the team. Essentially those numbers in tandem suggest that Z wasn't a team player and was hurting his lines production, even if he was scoring a lot of goals.
Meltzer wasn't getting the numbers argument that worked in favor for his ice time.

Detweiler wasn't getting that Zherdev was being benched and "mis-used" for reasons that weren't going to show up in anything he was going to present, such as this one.


Last edited by GKJ: 07-22-2011 at 02:25 PM.
GKJ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-22-2011, 02:16 PM
  #181
DUHockey9
Registered User
 
DUHockey9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Hogwarts
Country: United States
Posts: 4,472
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
1. His statements about context (as noted in the blog response) sniff of someone that should just avoid talking about stats in any meaningful way.

2. His whole commentary on shots v. quality shots is right in line with so much here: it fails to grasp that statistical distribution assumes noise, and that stuff washes out over time.

It reads exactly like the stuff that was being written 10 years ago about advanced stats in baseball.
Would you say one full season is a large enough sample for your #2 to hold true? Or true enough to meaningfully use advanced statistics?

I can't say I'm one that uses them, so I really don't know.

DUHockey9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-22-2011, 02:23 PM
  #182
tuckrr
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 2,567
vCash: 500
Lol I was hoping jester read meltzer today...

Meltzer is on of (if not the #1) best hockey writers on the internet these days. I've thoroughly enjoyed every article hes written.

Honestly none come to mind in which I think he's wrong ...and when he is its due to bad information, NOT bad insight.

+1 for meltzer

tuckrr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-22-2011, 02:47 PM
  #183
Prongo
Beer
 
Prongo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: philadelphia
Country: United States
Posts: 14,025
vCash: 500
I just read Melzers blog and i agree with almost all he has said. Meltzer pretty much outlined the things i would always argue with that Detwieler fella. actually people have tried to argue this with that man plenty of times but he comes off as arrogant and cocky like he knows everything he is talking about just relative to the stats. I am a huge stat guy but i believe this is so much more to sports when debating a players value to the team other than Corsi and other new stat formulas. and also Meltzer has been one of the best Bloggers recently because of his insight. I actually enjoyed Broadstreethockey before all of these trades happened with the flyers now i dont even bother reading the website becuase of Detwieler or whatever

Prongo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-22-2011, 03:43 PM
  #184
Jester
Registered User
 
Jester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: St. Andrews
Country: Scotland
Posts: 34,075
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by DUHockey9 View Post
Would you say one full season is a large enough sample for your #2 to hold true? Or true enough to meaningfully use advanced statistics?

I can't say I'm one that uses them, so I really don't know.
You always want more data.

And it is absolutely a fact that teams have entire seasons where the breaks go their way.

Right now I invite everyone to bask in the hilarity that is the Pirates record vs. how good they actually are. But, and this is an important point, for any one game the only stat that matters is the scoreboard; for any one season, the only stat that matters is your record.

Neither, on their own, are terribly useful for addressing future performance, which s what statistical analysis is actually useful for.

Jester is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-22-2011, 03:46 PM
  #185
Jester
Registered User
 
Jester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: St. Andrews
Country: Scotland
Posts: 34,075
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by tuckrr View Post
Lol I was hoping jester read meltzer today...

Meltzer is on of (if not the #1) best hockey writers on the internet these days. I've thoroughly enjoyed every article hes written.

Honestly none come to mind in which I think he's wrong ...and when he is its due to bad information, NOT bad insight.

+1 for meltzer
So, basically you are a Meltzer fanboy?

Meltzer is a very good writer because he is very objective in both his tone and his analysis. That does not mean everything he writes should be viewed as gospel. Whenever he begins to get into statistical arguments beyond the surface level, it's pretty clear he is in over his head. The arguments in that blog would get trashed if he trotted them out in a stat class...

Jester is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-22-2011, 04:10 PM
  #186
Spongolium*
Potato Magician
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Bridgend,UK
Country: Wales
Posts: 8,653
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
So, basically you are a Meltzer fanboy?

Meltzer is a very good writer because he is very objective in both his tone and his analysis. That does not mean everything he writes should be viewed as gospel. Whenever he begins to get into statistical arguments beyond the surface level, it's pretty clear he is in over his head. The arguments in that blog would get trashed if he trotted them out in a stat class...
Do you honestly have to make an argument about everything? Is this some broads thing?

Meltzer is 100% right. Esentially, stats don't tell the whole story. In sports there is only one stat that counts. The score, end of.

Spongolium* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-22-2011, 11:05 PM
  #187
Jester
Registered User
 
Jester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: St. Andrews
Country: Scotland
Posts: 34,075
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spongolium View Post
Do you honestly have to make an argument about everything? Is this some broads thing?

Meltzer is 100% right. Esentially, stats don't tell the whole story. In sports there is only one stat that counts. The score, end of.
Meltzer's argument in that write up is terrible.

Jester is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-23-2011, 06:11 AM
  #188
Spongolium*
Potato Magician
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Bridgend,UK
Country: Wales
Posts: 8,653
vCash: 500
Why don't you write up a piece an tell him why he's wrong then. Enlighten him With your knowledge in stats

Spongolium* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-23-2011, 10:27 AM
  #189
Jester
Registered User
 
Jester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: St. Andrews
Country: Scotland
Posts: 34,075
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spongolium View Post
Why don't you write up a piece an tell him why he's wrong then. Enlighten him With your knowledge in stats
Someone already has. But the real problem (similar to your statement above) is a baseline ignorance of stat analysis that makes it a waste of time. As noted above, Meltzer's lack of appreciation for advanced metrics makes impossible for him to converse about them in any meaningful way. Advanced stats support an argument he us making, but his ignorance means he doesn't have the empirical evidence to support his subjective opinion that is "contextualized".

Zherdev scored a lot of goals last year, but the TEAM didn't while he was on the ice.

Jester is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-23-2011, 02:23 PM
  #190
Spongolium*
Potato Magician
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Bridgend,UK
Country: Wales
Posts: 8,653
vCash: 500
I'm way to stupid and drunk to understand even half of what you wrote.

I like turtles

Spongolium* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-23-2011, 02:28 PM
  #191
Beef Invictus
Global Moderator
Beefitor
 
Beef Invictus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Centreville
Country: Lord Howe Island
Posts: 39,079
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spongolium View Post
I'm way to stupid and drunk to understand even half of what you wrote.

I like turtles

__________________
Down in the basement, I've got a Craftsman lathe. Show it to the children when they misbehave.
Beef Invictus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-23-2011, 02:31 PM
  #192
Spongolium*
Potato Magician
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Bridgend,UK
Country: Wales
Posts: 8,653
vCash: 500
Holy ****. Kill it! kill it with fire!

Spongolium* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-24-2011, 03:02 AM
  #193
Slowbro
Registered User
 
Slowbro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: New Jersey
Country: United States
Posts: 903
vCash: 500
i actually agree with Jester..

meltzer is GREAT writer but his content is shallow and quite frankly not very insightful and actually quite boring to read.

Slowbro is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 10:26 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. ©2014 All Rights Reserved.