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The Official Scott Gomez Thread part Cuatro - Rancho Relaxo Edition

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Old
07-22-2011, 08:20 PM
  #101
Player 61
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If Scott every does get traded, I think I might miss these Dos-Tres-Relaxo threads.

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07-22-2011, 08:28 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by Em Ancien View Post
Saying 'he had the chance', when Cammalleri is far from being good on D. Kostitsyn's stats seem skewed though, because he's better against top end players than Gomez, yet his % is thrown off by Group B forwards. I assume that's from playing with offensively inept players on his trips to the lower lines.

Once again, 'luck'. Find me legit top 6 players that end up with both third line-type production and the lowest +/- per 60 on their team, all with top 6 ice-time and usually some top 6 linemates. Luck is an excuse for people who don't try.

I'm sorry. He's average to below average. The general jist about Gomez is that he's solid defensively. So he was putrid by that standard.
Antropov, Booth, Setoguchi ?

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Old
07-22-2011, 08:38 PM
  #103
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Of course not! Who could believe such a thing?
That's what I'm wondering..

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07-22-2011, 08:38 PM
  #104
MooseOllini
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If Scott every does get traded, I think I might miss these Dos-Tres-Relaxo threads.
I'll definitely be following him wherever he goes to continue those threads!

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07-22-2011, 08:43 PM
  #105
Em Ancien
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Originally Posted by Rutabaga View Post
Antropov, Booth, Setoguchi ?
Seto is a consistent 20+ goal scorer and wasn't the worst in +/- per 60 (Marleau and a few others ahead of him).

Booth led his team in goals scored. and when healthy puts up 20+ easily.

Except for last season, Antropov never really showed he could be a legit top 6 forward. He's inconsistent and his defense is bad. Much like Gomez, he's a borderline top 6 guy. At least his deal is much more consistent with that.

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Old
07-22-2011, 10:39 PM
  #106
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If Scott every does get traded, I think I might miss these Dos-Tres-Relaxo threads.
There will be nothing left to write about in the summertime.

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07-22-2011, 11:02 PM
  #107
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Wow, what the heck do you guys manage to talk about on here? What Scott Gomez eats for breakfast? How many times a day he takes a dump?

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07-22-2011, 11:12 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by Em Ancien View Post
Seto is a consistent 20+ goal scorer and wasn't the worst in +/- per 60 (Marleau and a few others ahead of him).

Booth led his team in goals scored. and when healthy puts up 20+ easily.

Except for last season, Antropov never really showed he could be a legit top 6 forward. He's inconsistent and his defense is bad. Much like Gomez, he's a borderline top 6 guy. At least his deal is much more consistent with that.
Except for last season Gomez has been a legit top six guy all his career and he had first line production around 5-6 seasons in a defensive team.

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07-22-2011, 11:14 PM
  #109
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I see.

Would you say that the math is flimsy because it's an attempt to depict something that isn't describable by math, or because it's a failed attempt at depicting something that could, indeed, be understood trough (correct) maths?

FWIW, I'm the guy who put this whole thing together and I'm really interested to hear criticism of my work. That's why I put it out there, after all.
I don't think these things can be quantified by math alone and any attempt to will always fall short. It's interesting read for sure and something to ponder, but nothing more.

I appreciate the effort, but take it with a grain of salt, like I suggest others should as well.

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07-22-2011, 11:20 PM
  #110
Lafleurs Guy
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Originally Posted by Pierre Jr View Post
Wow, what the heck do you guys manage to talk about on here? What Scott Gomez eats for breakfast? How many times a day he takes a dump?
He took a dump pretty much every game he played for us last year...

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Old
07-22-2011, 11:24 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by Goldthorpe View Post
I entirely read your post, once, and think I understood the majority of it.

First, congratulation, that's a lot of work. I didn't saw obvious flaw. I'm curious about the tools you used (beyond your data sources), as I sincerely hope you did not compute all that by hand.
Computer scripts. Basically, python scripts based on the Beautiful soup library to parse the html files into csv files, then a bunch of row calculations to output even more csv files who are designed to serve as data source for Excel pivot tables.

Once you get the hang of it, the only challenge is to decide what, exactly, you want to coax out of those reams of raw data,

[/QUOTE]
I think the only weak point of your model (as far as I understand it) is still how you compare different teams CQRC, normalized or not. I'm not convince it's possible to compare players from different team with a microstats that is purely team-centric at its base, although that over the run of a season, it may not make a big difference overall.
[/QUOTE]

A very cogent observation.

The whole standard deviation limbo is done so every data point is normalized. Also, players with less than 20gp with a given team are scratched from that given team's calculation because Desjardins often stated 20 games was the threshold beyond with CorsiRelQualcomp became relatively stable.

I wasn't entirely convinced this would give something interesting. There was some trial and errors; I tried to match Forwards against Defensemen (that is, the forwards were stacked up against groups of defensemen and vice versa), but the results were all over the place. Then, after settling for 5 man units qualcomp, I had to fiddle with how to group players together. Making 5 bins ended up being the model that gave me a recognizable results.

There is an important point to be made here: I *knew* beforehand that Plekanec had to come up on or near the top and guys like Darche and Desharnais near the bottom of the pile for the model to make sense, because I knew those guys were the extreme of the matchup game Martin plays. You don't just go dumpster diving into a pool of data, hoping to find something, you try to demonstrate something you think you already know. At some point, I was basically writing a blog post demonstrating how what I had tried was a complete failure, hoping some kind soul would point me in a more interesting direction... But then I found the proper way of grouping players and the the whole thing made way more sense than I expected, even catching subtle shifts such as Halpern getting to play a lot with Plekanec in hard match situations late in the season.

Quote:
Amusingly, I once used standard-deviation calculation based on the "typical" hockey stats (G, A, P, etc.) but in the context of a fantasy hockey leagues where players statistics had to change depending on their seasons performances... obviously our model was way simpler, and didn't have the benefit the modern hockey microstats bring.
Did it worked?

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Old
07-22-2011, 11:33 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
I don't think these things can be quantified by math alone and any attempt to will always fall short. It's interesting read for sure and something to ponder, but nothing more.

I appreciate the effort, but take it with a grain of salt, like I suggest others should as well.
A perfectly reasonable position.

That being said, I think these things (Quality of competition as an indication of the kind of role played by a player and an essential element of context for understanding said player's contribution to the team) can be successfully observed by quantitative means and thus lead us to a better understanding of a larger, more complex (and not entirely quantifiable) question, that is the contribution of a given player to the team's success.

I don't think that particular index I've put forward is perfect, mind you. But I think it's a step in the right direction.

All in all, I guess this is a long-winded way of saying "I appreciate the input, and I think we'll have to agree to disagree on that point" .

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Old
07-22-2011, 11:37 PM
  #113
macavoy
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
He took a dump pretty much every game he played for us last year...
This post is full of win, I didn't expect it but it was freakin hilarious

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Old
07-22-2011, 11:42 PM
  #114
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Originally Posted by OlivierB View Post
A perfectly reasonable position.

That being said, I think these things (Quality of competition as an indication of the kind of role played by a player and an essential element of context for understanding said player's contribution to the team) can be successfully observed by quantitative means and thus lead us to a better understanding of a larger, more complex (and not entirely quantifiable) question, that is the contribution of a given player to the team's success.

I don't think that particular index I've put forward is perfect, mind you. But I think it's a step in the right direction.

All in all, I guess this is a long-winded way of saying "I appreciate the input, and I think we'll have to agree to disagree on that point" .
No worries, I wasn't trying to down play your work. I probably could of worded my response a little bit better, but I agree it shows something most likely, how much, I don't know.

The player in question Scott Gomez to my eyes appeared to play poorly, not just produce poorish results. I know my eyes trick me and that's not what really happened. Mathman tells me all the time, but I will take my years of watching hockey over these largely unproven statistics every time.

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07-23-2011, 09:03 AM
  #115
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Originally Posted by OlivierB View Post
Did it worked?
Yeah it worked. Basically, for each player, the program assigned a standard-deviation value for his production vs the rest of the league, as well as a standard-deviation value for its character stats (for example, scoring ability) again compared to the rest of the league. The idea being that if the guy is +2 SDV away in term of goal scoring, then he "should" also be +2 SDV in term of "scoring ability". There are obvious problems with this method - it doesn't take into account quality of teammates or of opponents for a start - but it worked enough to be quite successful and popular with the league participants.

Oh yea, and also all in python

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Old
07-23-2011, 09:58 AM
  #116
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True story : I was in Sea World (San Diego) yesterday and the ticket booth guy sees I am from Canada and says 'do you know who Scott Gomez is'? I say 'sure'. He says, 'I'm his uncle Joe, my brother is Scott's father'.

He also tells me to say hello to Scott, from his uncle Joe, as he now assumes everyone in Canada must know each other.

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07-23-2011, 10:11 AM
  #117
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True story : I was in Sea World (San Diego) yesterday and the ticket booth guy sees I am from Canada and says 'do you know who Scott Gomez is'? I say 'sure'. He says, 'I'm his uncle Joe, my brother is Scott's father'.

He also tells me to say hello to Scott, from his uncle Joe, as he now assumes everyone in Canada must know each other.

Didn't you know that Canada was a city & Africa a Country?

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Old
07-26-2011, 09:31 AM
  #118
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Is gomez an assest or anchor for the team?

Is gomez an assest to the team or is he an anchor that is weighing us down. I am sick of these players that have one good season, then sign a huge contract and fall apart for the remainder of that new contract. All players should be paid a base salary, then topped up with bonuses for there play, I can almost guarantee that we would be seeing much better hockey then the high paid free skate for these players...ya think

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Old
07-26-2011, 09:36 AM
  #119
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On the surface base pay might seem logical.... but if you think some players are selfish now, it would be brutal then.

Also the Gomez contract isn't keeping us from signing players. Find a new song. No one ever said he was worth the huge contract, but he's got it and we've got him. Show him some love and maybe, just maybe he'll produce. Keep kicking him and there is no reason for him to produce.

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Old
07-26-2011, 10:42 AM
  #120
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Originally Posted by Legend McNoob View Post
Is gomez an assest to the team or is he an anchor that is weighing us down. I am sick of these players that have one good season, then sign a huge contract and fall apart for the remainder of that new contract. All players should be paid a base salary, then topped up with bonuses for there play, I can almost guarantee that we would be seeing much better hockey then the high paid free skate for these players...ya think
An anchor can be seen as keeping you down (which is illogical, because an anchor doesn't actually make you drown or capsize), but it also can be seen as keeping something stable... like a line or pairing.

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Old
07-26-2011, 10:48 AM
  #121
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This is getting tiresome. I hope I don't see a 'cinco'.

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Old
07-26-2011, 10:49 AM
  #122
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Should have made it "Just Chill Out" edition or whatever the non-babelified version of "Apenas enfríese hacia fuera" is

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Old
07-26-2011, 11:44 AM
  #123
Pierre Dagenais
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Originally Posted by Legend McNoob View Post
Is gomez an assest to the team or is he an anchor that is weighing us down. I am sick of these players that have one good season, then sign a huge contract and fall apart for the remainder of that new contract. All players should be paid a base salary, then topped up with bonuses for there play, I can almost guarantee that we would be seeing much better hockey then the high paid free skate for these players...ya think
Only rookies, veterans aged 35+ and players coming off serious injuries can have bonuses in their contracts.

RIP your post

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Old
08-06-2011, 06:56 AM
  #124
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we're in the 5th ?


sacramant Ginette...

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Old
08-06-2011, 10:51 AM
  #125
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I don't know why people are saying Gomez is godd defensivly, he has bad positioning, gives up on the play and is always trying to cheat.

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