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Corey Pronman's top 10 Habs prospects

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Old
07-28-2011, 10:12 AM
  #1
MathMan
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Corey Pronman's top 10 Habs prospects

I'm not necessarily a huge fan of everything Puck Prospectus writes, but Corey Pronman is excellent, and his article on Habs prospect luckliy fell into the "free" portion of the site:

http://puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1032

Not looking good at all. Graduating PK Subban and Yanick Weber the same year will do that to you, but it would be good if the Habs could stock up again.

They've been strong drafters in the past, but IMO, it would be best if they went back to drafting for skill; they can't afford to keep spending two high picks to draft a player like Tinordi, whose player type just doesn't project a high upside.

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07-28-2011, 10:16 AM
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Ginu
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Is this your site? I have to say that the evaluation is quite bad. Only last year, Montreal had one of the top prospect pools in the league. And our drafting has improved since then. Tinordi and Beaulieu will be anchors on defense for this team. The reason we went defensemen in the 1st round the last few years is our forward prospects are pretty deep, but we lack top defensive prospects. We have that now. Beaulieu was ranked 11th in the draft. That ranking is based on the professional opinion of numerous NHL scouts. I have to say that you're wrong here if this is your website.

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07-28-2011, 10:33 AM
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MathMan
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Originally Posted by Ginu View Post
Is this your site?
No; Puck Prospectus is an offshoot of Baseball Prospectus, one of the better-regarded Sabremetrics sites.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ginu View Post
I have to say that the evaluation is quite bad. Only last year, Montreal had one of the top prospect pools in the league. And our drafting has improved since then. Tinordi and Beaulieu will be anchors on defense for this team.
I think Beaulieu will be, and I think Beaulieu is easily the Habs' best prospect. Unfortunately, he's also their only really high-end one. The Habs do have some boom-or-bust guys, but Beaulieu is the only guy with both upside and surefire impact (unless you count Yemelin).

I don't think Tinordi is going to be an anchor. I don't disagree with Pronman's assessment of Tinordi. "Big, physical D-men" are inherently low-upside prospects unless they also have the crucial positioning and puck skills (in other words, they are quality D-men that just happen to be big and physical); Tinordi's liable to top off as a #4, but Pronman's assessment of him as a probable future bottom-pairing D-man seems on the mark to me.

OTOH, "big physical D-men" are routinely overvalued on the trade market, so Tinordi may have more value to the Habs as trade bait than he does as a future Habs blueliner.

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07-28-2011, 10:33 AM
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Andy
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There are other words one can use to describe a player's ability aside from "above-average".

Aside from that, I'd say the analysis is a safe one.

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07-28-2011, 10:38 AM
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Originally Posted by Koseegin View Post
There are other words one can use to describe a player's ability aside from "above-average".

Aside from that, I'd say the analysis is a safe one.
Pretty much this, the guy is maybe rating the prospects down a little, but thats more likely than for the prospect to exceed expectations.

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07-28-2011, 10:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ginu View Post
Is this your site? I have to say that the evaluation is quite bad. Only last year, Montreal had one of the top prospect pools in the league. And our drafting has improved since then. Tinordi and Beaulieu will be anchors on defense for this team. The reason we went defensemen in the 1st round the last few years is our forward prospects are pretty deep, but we lack top defensive prospects. We have that now. Beaulieu was ranked 11th in the draft. That ranking is based on the professional opinion of numerous NHL scouts. I have to say that you're wrong here if this is your website.
Unless I'm misremembering, this is not true. We've been down in the 20s for a couple years now. With Subban, Price, Pacioretty, Weber, Desharnais, and White graduated, the pool is quite weak compared to the rest of the league.

In my opinion, Beaulieu is the only guy in our system who has the potential to be a top line anything.

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07-28-2011, 10:59 AM
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I've said it before and I'll say it again...


This guy has the best name ever.



Second best is Grant Clitsome.

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07-28-2011, 11:03 AM
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Originally Posted by Koseegin View Post
There are other words one can use to describe a player's ability aside from "above-average".

Aside from that, I'd say the analysis is a safe one.
uh, the guy has a clear vocabulary that he explains in another article. It's deliberate, there's a bunch of key-words that act as grades.

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07-28-2011, 11:11 AM
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Originally Posted by Dwight View Post
Unless I'm misremembering, this is not true. We've been down in the 20s for a couple years now. With Subban, Price, Pacioretty, Weber, Desharnais, and White graduated, the pool is quite weak compared to the rest of the league.

In my opinion, Beaulieu is the only guy in our system who has the potential to be a top line anything.
He said "only last year". Last year Pacioretty, Weber, Desharnais and White were all still considered prospects (even Subban too, depending on your definition of a prospect), which definitely should have put us higher than down in the 20's.

Any team that graduates 4-5 players in a single year is going to see their prospect ranking plummet the next year, it's only logical.

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07-28-2011, 11:18 AM
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
I'm not necessarily a huge fan of everything Puck Prospectus writes, but Corey Pronman is excellent, and his article on Habs prospect luckliy fell into the "free" portion of the site:

http://puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1032

Not looking good at all. Graduating PK Subban and Yanick Weber the same year will do that to you, but it would be good if the Habs could stock up again.
I don't think our defence prospect pool is the problem. With PK and Weber graduating, we still according to his list have Yemelin, Beaulieu and Tinordi. Combined that with PK and Markov under contract, our d core will be ok until the next batch are ready to graduate.

Our problem lies in our forward prospect pool. Having Palushaj at the top isn't appealing to me. Leblanc and Kristo I'd say are in the 25-60% range of making it to the NHL.

You are right though, we need to start drafting for need a little more in the first round, we've spent most of our picks on goalie and defence for the past few years and we are stronger in those departments now.

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07-28-2011, 11:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ginu View Post
Is this your site? I have to say that the evaluation is quite bad. Only last year, Montreal had one of the top prospect pools in the league. And our drafting has improved since then. Tinordi and Beaulieu will be anchors on defense for this team. The reason we went defensemen in the 1st round the last few years is our forward prospects are pretty deep, but we lack top defensive prospects. We have that now. Beaulieu was ranked 11th in the draft. That ranking is based on the professional opinion of numerous NHL scouts. I have to say that you're wrong here if this is your website.
I'm by no means an expert on this stuff but i don't think there is any doubt that our current group of prospects is pretty poor. Alot of that can be attributed to the fact that our best prospects have made the big club and the fact that Habs management has traded away a number of picks over the last couple of seasons.

But based on what i'm reading here Leblanc looks like he's quite the dissapointment. I was hoping his upside would be in the Patrice Bergeron range.

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07-28-2011, 11:50 AM
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Pretty good article, IMO. I think he maybe sells Kristo and Gallagher short a little bit and overrates Nattinen, but probably the best read I've come across on Habs prospects.

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07-28-2011, 12:05 PM
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It's a good article, and we know we have to improve our drafting. We don't have the best set of prospects, and it's going to hurt us in the coming years. The big question is, will we ever be able to do that? I don't see us tanking to get top spots, and we don't seem to capitalize all the time on UFAs when we could trade them for prospects/picks.

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07-28-2011, 12:09 PM
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But based on what i'm reading here Leblanc looks like he's quite the dissapointment. I was hoping his upside would be in the Patrice Bergeron range.
It is (key word being "upside"). Leblanc is still a very good prospect, despite not being an elite one. Don't believe everything you read on HF.

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07-28-2011, 12:21 PM
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This was an average to below average read

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07-28-2011, 12:21 PM
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I've never understood how people rank prospects on this forum. This list depicts my thoughts on our prospects a lot more accurately than any of the polls I've seen on here.

I have no clue why everyone is so high on Tinordi who struggled big time in the OHL last season after his draft year. He could pan out, but I have to laugh every time I see habs fans pegging him into their line up and acting like he's the future. At this point, Tinordi has disappointed. He could turn it around but I''ve heard nothing but bad things about him. Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't he passed over for team USA camp invitations at some point ? Really don't know why habs fans on here are so high on him.

Kristo has had a very difficult season point production wise and is another guy that is realy overrated despite reports of him actually playing well despite the lack of pts. But he's also had some drama around him and certainly there are some concerns about this guy. I don't like the reports of him not having the best hockey sense.

Palushaj is actually a guy I was impressed with in his brief stint with Montreal contrarily to general opinion on this board. I feel he'll find a way to play in the NHL at some point. Lack of scoring touch is what I feel might hold him back though.

But yeah, right now, Beaulieu (honeymoon phase), Diaz and Emelin are our best prospects. I'm hopeful Leblanc can redeem himself a little bit with a healthier season and I didn't find him to be near as bad as people said he was during U20s but up front it's absolutely awful aside from Palushaj and Leblanc and not like these two are world beaters either. Avtsin is a really realy long shot. And the rest of them don't inspire me much.

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07-28-2011, 12:32 PM
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Originally Posted by xposbrad View Post
It's a good article, and we know we have to improve our drafting.
Montreal is generally a very good drafting team. The problem is that lately they haven't drafted, haven't drafted high, or else made a few questionable picks.

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07-28-2011, 12:34 PM
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xposbrad
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Originally Posted by E = CH² View Post
I've never understood how people rank prospects on this forum. This list depicts my thoughts on our prospects a lot more accurately than any of the polls I've seen on here.

I have no clue why everyone is so high on Tinordi who struggled big time in the OHL last season after his draft year. He could pan out, but I have to laugh every time I see habs fans pegging him into their line up and acting like he's the future. At this point, Tinordi has disappointed. He could turn it around but I''ve heard nothing but bad things about him. Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't he passed over for team USA camp invitations at some point ? Really don't know why habs fans on here are so high on him.
Kristo has had a very difficult season point production wise and is another guy that is realy overrated despite reports of him actually playing well despite the lack of pts. But he's also had some drama around him and certainly there are some concerns about this guy. I don't like the reports of him not having the best hockey sense.

Palushaj is actually a guy I was impressed with in his brief stint with Montreal contrarily to general opinion on this board. I feel he'll find a way to play in the NHL at some point. Lack of scoring touch is what I feel might hold him back though.

But yeah, right now, Beaulieu (honeymoon phase), Diaz and Emelin are our best prospects. I'm hopeful Leblanc can redeem himself a little bit with a healthier season and I didn't find him to be near as bad as people said he was during U20s but up front it's absolutely awful aside from Palushaj and Leblanc and not like these two are world beaters either. Avtsin is a really realy long shot. And the rest of them don't inspire me much.
It's because they are fans. Yes it is funny see people think Tinordi is the future of our blueline and have him as a top 3 type of guy. He's a bottom pairing bruiser. He can clear the net, and rough it up if we need him to, but his puck handling skills and some other things need major work. I really haven't seen him do much to show he has a huge amount of upside in terms of current skill. But, a lot of fans here on these boards 'hope' he has upside, because our cupboard is very thin in terms of prospects and we drafted him in the 1st round, so you know how it goes.

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07-28-2011, 01:10 PM
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A below-average read.

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07-28-2011, 01:16 PM
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I have a strong feeling that Brendan Gallagher will be a top prospect for us next year, he seems to be making significant progress. Also Is the guys last name Yemelin or Emilin?

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07-28-2011, 01:19 PM
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Originally Posted by xposbrad View Post
It's because they are fans. Yes it is funny see people think Tinordi is the future of our blueline and have him as a top 3 type of guy. He's a bottom pairing bruiser. He can clear the net, and rough it up if we need him to, but his puck handling skills and some other things need major work. I really haven't seen him do much to show he has a huge amount of upside in terms of current skill. But, a lot of fans here on these boards 'hope' he has upside, because our cupboard is very thin in terms of prospects and we drafted him in the 1st round, so you know how it goes.
I see Tinordi having the potential of Gill, with more physicality. He had a rough year but could still turn things around. He really impressed me during his pre-season game last september. He definatly has top 4 potential but yes he could easily end up being a 3rd pairing guy.

I think Beaulieu is a bit overrated now as well but should end up being a decent #3.

Emelin will probably be a top 4D at the end of the season. Those are our best prospects.


The rest might have some sort of potential, but they are all longshots for some reason.

Leblanc, Kristo, Avtsin, Palushaj and Nattinen are all overated as hell, Nattinen being the worst, I don't even see this guy having success in the AHL, his offensive side is too...well...there is none..

Some fans around here really overate our prospects. Try to be more realistic.

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07-28-2011, 01:21 PM
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-Palushaj ahead of Leblanc and Tinordi.
-Avstin ahead of Tinordi.
It's an interesting list. He seems to put more emphasis on how close the prospect is from the big club.

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07-28-2011, 01:26 PM
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Not a bad overall analysis, we are having the worst prospect pool since a long time now. But there are holes like that in every team on different time of their existence. Our holes are being made because of the youngsters that are with the team here COUPLED with the dealing of picks we have done to patch things up and the 1st rounders that didn't pan out OR was traded....

But to me, Kristo at #7 MAKES NO SENSE. Yeah, he forces plays sometimes. And the reason why is that he should stick to what he does best which is being a shooter. But he tries to accomodate his linemates and when there's a lack of finish, he then tries to do everything by himself. Which is something, if he's somewhat intelligent, will learn to trust the guys he'll play with in the NHL will would evidently be much better than who he was playing with.

See....Kessel is a guy some people might be worried as far as hockey sense is concerned....I know though that hockey sense, like I keep saying, is often something that will stop you from being an NHL'er IF YOU DON'T HAVE AN EXTRAORDINAIRY QUALITY....something I believe Kristo has and will continue having. Kristo will be a top 6 player soon. Something that I will agree with the author, I don't see Leblanc becoming....and both Leblanc and Tinordi picks...that's more troublesome than anything. Mostly because it adds to the 1st rounder picks who MIGHT NOT reach the ceiling some thought they could have. YET, IT IS VERY VERY VERY EARLY in each guy's respective career, but if an analysis has to be made RIGHT NOW, which is a fun exercice to do but worth so much, I also saw a very poor Tinordi this year. Slow decision after another, not always at the right spot, no offense (even though I knew it was never going to be his game), often outsmarted...let just say it was not the start we anticipated. While not the same type of player, let just say some anticipated the kind of start in his OHL career like John Carlson had, and I'm even not talking about the offensive side of his OHL career, but how composed and solid he was.....My main concern with Tinordi is like I've stated a lot....can't believe we traded to get a guy like him when other guys will eventually end up having the same type of career if not better like my pal in Michigan who is supposed to be sooooo disruptive. We will see. And you end up with a 2nd rounder that Timmins might have work his magic with. Strange how things work sometimes.....some in here and clearly the league and the organization believes Timmins is all that and especially AFTER the 1st round and yet.....we cancelled a whole lot of occasions lately when he could have worked his magic....

As far as Leblanc, well he gets the things done but I really don't see him improving enough so that he ends up a top 6 player. A great 3rd liner? Sure. Again though, not sure that's what you have in mind with your 1st rounders especially with who was available. But I guess that Timmins had no choice....

As far as Beaulieu is concerned, the doubters will be really really surprised. This guy is the real deal. And might even have the career in the NHL that Carlson is actually having. I believe in this kid that much. A great solid pick by Timmins though it was THE pick to made. With him falling like that, this guy was THE only pick. And he made it. Still kudos to him.

Emelin: A rollercoaster ride. I saw this guy being an hero at the Worlds Juniors and then I saw him totally regressed from then.....to see him ressuscitate. So I have no idea what to think. He will have to adjust his game though might be better suited for a NA rink. But he will have to improve his decision making defensively. And will have to tone it down just a bit with his aggressiveness. Will also have to move his feet way more, saw him coasting too much defensively. Though it's really really tough to address if his bad outings were due stricly to himself or to his coach's demands. 'Cause at one point, he seemed way too tentative but then you saw his other teamates D who seemed to have all the latitude he could while he didn't seems to have any.....So truly a case of being patient with him and see how he improves. But is clearly a great prospect to have.
Palushaj...my boy. Loved the guy in Michigan. Still loves him....But his inability to put some weight and strength on his frame is problematic. Might even make him a great....AHL'er for life. Still time to improve 'cause he has a lot of intangibles. Not sure he fits at #3. At least not how I'm seeing things. Are we rating the prospects based on how soon they'll play? On how big their impact could be at this time? Palushaj is more ready than any of those guys behind...not sure he'll have more impact though. And even when I say ready, the physical aspect is still a lot to work on.

Avtsin: Well for me, it's all in, wait and see game. It could go either way. And this year, it's his year. He needs to be a regular. And he needs to improve his defensive game. 'Cause the coach is Clément Jodoin. You KNOW you have to improve defensively.

Mitera: Well another favorite of mine (sorry, my bias from Michigan). Can't believe this kid is not in the NHL yet....and that's what problematic for me. If he was about to make it, his physical package had to be enough to be considered as a regular as soon as next year....which he won't be. And was let go on top of that. So a fresh start might be what the doctor ordered. I still believe he can make it....might never turn out as a top 4 as I thought....but a depth player, could be the analysis to make.

Naatinen: Let's pray that his faceoff skills still remains great.....'cause that's what he has a great quality. Though he will become Jodoin's favorite guy, big and really good defensively...but you hope he buys a speed or 2 'cause he'll never make it if he doesn't.

Bournival: Another 3rd and 4th liner that will make it. It's not IF he makes it, it's when. But the impact is what's at stake here. I have confidence in him. But I don't see him as a top 6 player.

So again, the Habs, in a time when they don't have a lot of names in their prospect pool, are filled with POTENTIAL 3rd and 4th liners....with a few guys that might make an impact as top 4 D or top 6 forwards. But they are a minority....Yet, the drafts aren't cancelled. If we keep our picks, Timmins can work his magic in the upcoming ones.

But MOST IMPORTANTLY, the analysis we have NOW, is not exactly what will happen in the future. There will be surprises and deceptions....and maybe not to the guys we think it will happen to. Fun to make our impressions now, and for my favorite WEWILLSEEISTS....this time, they are ABSOLUTELY RIGHT.

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07-28-2011, 01:46 PM
  #24
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Is this your site? I have to say that the evaluation is quite bad. Only last year, Montreal had one of the top prospect pools in the league. And our drafting has improved since then. Tinordi and Beaulieu will be anchors on defense for this team. The reason we went defensemen in the 1st round the last few years is our forward prospects are pretty deep, but we lack top defensive prospects. We have that now. Beaulieu was ranked 11th in the draft. That ranking is based on the professional opinion of numerous NHL scouts. I have to say that you're wrong here if this is your website.
We used to have one of the best prospect pools in the NHL when Price, S.Kostitsyn, Subban, Weber, Halak, D'Agostini, Grabovski, Pacioretty, O'Byrne, McDonagh, etc were not NHLers/still with the team. Now our prospect pool is quite average and is in need of a refill. We also have traded away some high picks lately so the refill isn't as fast.

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07-28-2011, 01:59 PM
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The dealing of a lot of high quality picks over the last few years has really hurt our system depth. Remember players like Subban, Weber & Patches were picked up with late 1sts that we received from other teams (thank-you SJ) and a 2nd and 3rd. We've been trading our 2nds and 3rds a lot lately. I think the trade for Tinordi was a costly one, since I think we could've gotten a player at least equal to him while keeping the draft picks we gave up.

On top of that Patches, Subban and Weber have all graduated to the big team, so this was bound to be an off-year. If we can keep all our picks for next year's draft then our depth should rebound nicely.



With the average first pairing D-man to above-average 2nd pairing d-man rating, Beaulieu sounds like a player destined to be under-rated. Basically, what I'm hearing from the various sources is that Beaulieu should be a high quality top 4 d-man. Good.

With Subban, Weber, Emelin & Beaulieu we have 4 nice young d-men that bring a variety of skills to our blueline. It sounds like that Didier kid we got in the 4th rd is also a nice pick-up, while Tinordi is a project pick.

Hopefully, Gorges gets signed long term and becomes the veteran presence for the kids that Gill is right now. It seems our blue line depth is fine.

I'm sure in the first round the Habs will take the BPA in 2012 since that's their policy, but hopefully, they make a run on forwards next year as they did with D-men this year.

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