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Ranger vs. Islander young forwards

View Poll Results: Who has better young forwards?
Rangers by a lot 13 9.49%
Rangers by a little 19 13.87%
About the same 11 8.03%
Islanders by a little 58 42.34%
Islanders by a lot 36 26.28%
Voters: 137. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
07-29-2011, 02:14 PM
  #76
Inferno
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about the same, maybe an edge to the isles...i like our depth, i like their top end talent...i call that a push.

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07-29-2011, 02:15 PM
  #77
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RangerEsq View Post
High risk not in the sense that we gave up a lot for them, but in the sense that there is a high probability of them not making it at all.

Look at Kreider. He can be a first liner. But if all fails, he can still be an NHL player in a Sjostrom role. I would say that he has a 20% chance of being a first liner, 30% of being a second liner, 30% of being a third liner, 10% fourth liner and only 10% to be a bust.

Not so much with Thomas. Thomas has a 40% chance being an outright bust, 30% of being a first liner and 30% of being a second liner. I really don't see how he can be a role player.

So with Thomas, the risk of being an outright bust is 4 times higher than with Kreider, which is what makes him high-risk or boom/bust if you will.
This percentage stuff is nonsense. Watch the player. This isn't EA sports...

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07-29-2011, 02:21 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by Barnaby View Post
This percentage stuff is nonsense. Watch the player. This isn't EA sports...

Last time I played video games was on a regular Nintendo. Not Nintendo-64, not even Super Nintendo. That and "Street Fighter" for 25 cents a game.

But you CAN estimate things. How do you think scouts evaluate a player? Obviously my numbers aren't perfect, but it's a rough estimate of the odds I would give each player of reaching certain potential.

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07-29-2011, 02:32 PM
  #79
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Isles by a little. Let's remember we essentially scored the same amount of goals last season and I like their forward prospects better.

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07-29-2011, 02:48 PM
  #80
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Definitely Islanders.... major difference.

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07-29-2011, 03:12 PM
  #81
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RangerEsq View Post
High risk not in the sense that we gave up a lot for them, but in the sense that there is a high probability of them not making it at all.

Look at Kreider. He can be a first liner. But if all fails, he can still be an NHL player in a Sjostrom role. I would say that he has a 20% chance of being a first liner, 30% of being a second liner, 30% of being a third liner, 10% fourth liner and only 10% to be a bust.

Not so much with Thomas. Thomas has a 40% chance being an outright bust, 30% of being a first liner and 30% of being a second liner. I really don't see how he can be a role player.

So with Thomas, the risk of being an outright bust is 4 times higher than with Kreider, which is what makes him high-risk or boom/bust if you will.
Ah but Thomas has a 60% chance of being a top 6 player, while Kreider only has a 50% chance, according to your numbers. Thankfully, your numbers are all BS anyway lol.

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07-29-2011, 03:27 PM
  #82
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Originally Posted by iamitter View Post
Isles by a little. Let's remember we essentially scored the same amount of goals last season and I like their forward prospects better.

That's the thing: we scored a little more than them last season, and did it without throwing caution to the wind and just trying to run up stats.

In the system their possible top-6 are:

Nino
Strome
Rakhshani
Petrov

Our possible top-6 are:

Kreider
Thomas
Fasth
Miller
Zuccarello
St. Croix
McColgan

Their top-2 are great, but at some point, "quantity has a quality of its own" in the sense that you don't need every prospect to make it, you can have 2-3 lower prospects who each have a lesser chance individually, but together have equivalent or higher odds.

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07-29-2011, 04:07 PM
  #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RangerEsq View Post
That's the thing: we scored a little more than them last season, and did it without throwing caution to the wind and just trying to run up stats.

In the system their possible top-6 are:

Nino
Strome
Rakhshani
Petrov

Our possible top-6 are:

Kreider
Thomas
Fasth
Miller
Zuccarello
St. Croix
McColgan

Their top-2 are great, but at some point, "quantity has a quality of its own" in the sense that you don't need every prospect to make it, you can have 2-3 lower prospects who each have a lesser chance individually, but together have equivalent or higher odds.
Not to nitpick, but they actually scored 1 goal more than us.

I'm no expert on the Islanders' prospects, but is that really all of their prospects that have a chance of becoming a top 6 player? I think when we start to include players like McColgan, St. Croix and Fasth, that's stretching it a bit. There's a reason these guys went in the later rounds. I actually think there's a much higher chance none of them become top 6 players than one of them does.

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Old
07-29-2011, 04:45 PM
  #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RangerEsq View Post
That's the thing: we scored a little more than them last season, and did it without throwing caution to the wind and just trying to run up stats.

In the system their possible top-6 are:

Nino
Strome
Rakhshani
Petrov

Our possible top-6 are:

Kreider
Thomas
Fasth
Miller
Zuccarello
St. Croix
McColgan

Their top-2 are great, but at some point, "quantity has a quality of its own" in the sense that you don't need every prospect to make it, you can have 2-3 lower prospects who each have a lesser chance individually, but together have equivalent or higher odds.
Quality over quantity every single day of the week, in the prospect world. When has three fourth round picks ever been traded for a pick in the 1st round?

Regardless, the Islander's list should include Kabanov, Lee, and Nelson in addition to the names you've listed based on your critera (i.e. the list for the Rangers).

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07-29-2011, 04:48 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by GAGLine View Post
Ah but Thomas has a 60% chance of being a top 6 player, while Kreider only has a 50% chance, according to your numbers.
That's correct. Kreider has better size and skating, but Thomas a better shot. I definitely think Thomas has higher potential than Kreider. The kid put up what, ~120 points in the last regular season+playoff and something like 65 goals.

He definitely has a higher possibility of becoming a top-6 player, no question about it. Thomas could possibly score 40 goals a year if he reaches his outmost potential. Not saying it will happen, but it's not impossible given his game. I think Kreider maxes out at 30-35 goals if he reaches his outmost potential.

The only reason Kreider may be ranked as a higher prospect is that if he fails to become a top-6, he could still turn into a useful role player like Sjostrom or better, whereas if Thomas fails to become top-6, he will be in the AHL.

Kreider has at least a 90% chance of playing in the NHL in some capacity, whereas Thomas is at most 60-40.

If Kreider had higher odds of becoming a top-6 player than Thomas, he would be hugely ahead of Thomas when combined with their bottom-6 potential. That's not true. Many view Thomas as a little worse, equivalent and (rarely) even better than Kreider, and they do so precisely because his potential is higher.

Think of it this way: Bertuzzi was regarded as a better prospect than Savard because Savard could've turned into nothing (like Dube did) whereas Bertuzzi was guaranteed to be a player. At the same time, it was well know that if both reach their offensive potential, Savard will put up more points than Bertuzzi.

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07-29-2011, 05:02 PM
  #86
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I hope we are not back to the discussion that a prospect is judged simply on their outmost potential, so any higher ranked prospect has a higher chance to become a first liner.

There are many many factors that go into ranking a prospect, including his potential and the odds of reaching it.

Dale Weise is ranked about the same as Michael St. Croix and Shane McColgan, though his potential is most definitely as a role player. Why? Because he has a good chance of playing in the NHL, whereas St. Croix and McColgan have a 90% chance of never sniffing the NHL and are 50-50 not to even make the AHL. Fogarty too has lower potential than either St. Croix or McColgan, but was drafted ahead of them.

In fact, I would say they have a higher potential than even Miller, but Miller has a 50-50 chance of becoming something between Anisimov and Dubinsky, whereas St. Croix has only 5-10% chance of becoming a top-6 player (based on past drafts' fourth round picks). But if one of them becomes a first liner, I would bet on St. Croix and not Miller because his outmost potential is higher, it's just that his odds of becoming top-9 or even top-6 are much, much lower.

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07-29-2011, 07:43 PM
  #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iamitter View Post
Not to nitpick, but they actually scored 1 goal more than us.

I'm no expert on the Islanders' prospects, but is that really all of their prospects that have a chance of becoming a top 6 player? I think when we start to include players like McColgan, St. Croix and Fasth, that's stretching it a bit. There's a reason these guys went in the later rounds. I actually think there's a much higher chance none of them become top 6 players than one of them does.
Anders Lee, Brock Nelson, Kabanov and Cizikas. Cizikas has less of a chance but Nelson, Kabanov and Lee have real good chances.

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07-29-2011, 07:46 PM
  #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RangerEsq View Post
That's the thing: we scored a little more than them last season, and did it without throwing caution to the wind and just trying to run up stats.

In the system their possible top-6 are:

Nino
Strome
Rakhshani
Petrov

Our possible top-6 are:

Kreider
Thomas
Fasth
Miller
Zuccarello
St. Croix
McColgan

Their top-2 are great, but at some point, "quantity has a quality of its own" in the sense that you don't need every prospect to make it, you can have 2-3 lower prospects who each have a lesser chance individually, but together have equivalent or higher odds.
You definately have some good posts in this thread and know the prospects. However, if players like Fasth, St. Croix and McColgan are included in this list then there are very comparable players on the Isles list such as Kabanov, Lee, Petrov, Brock Nelson and didn't they draft 2 swedes in the 2nd round this year??

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07-29-2011, 09:19 PM
  #89
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Kabanov maxes out as a third liner. Maybe a crappy one, maybe a great one, but a third liner nonetheless. I don't see him having the potential to score 45+ points on a consistent basis. Anders Lee to me is someone who maxes out as a tweener, though I probably should have listed him. Same for Brock Nelson. Cizikas is overrated and I have my doubts about him. I don't see him scoring at a decent rate in the NHL. Oh well, I guess we could include them.

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07-29-2011, 11:17 PM
  #90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RangerEsq View Post
Kabanov maxes out as a third liner. Maybe a crappy one, maybe a great one, but a third liner nonetheless. I don't see him having the potential to score 45+ points on a consistent basis. Anders Lee to me is someone who maxes out as a tweener, though I probably should have listed him. Same for Brock Nelson. Cizikas is overrated and I have my doubts about him. I don't see him scoring at a decent rate in the NHL. Oh well, I guess we could include them.
You have no clue what you're talking about.

Kirill Kabanov is the poster child for high risk/high reward. He's less likely to make the NHL then McColgan or St. Croix, but his upside is absolutely tremendous.

Brock Nelson is a huge project pick, that has great size but is extremely raw. He has the potential to be an absolute beast down the line, not a tweener.

If you are going to list guys like Fasth, it is only fair to mention Cizikas and Lee. I think Cizikas has the least potential of the guys mentioned, but he can top out as a 2nd liner, and Anders Lee had an excellent rookie season at Notre Dame. Yes, more impressive then Jesper Fasth's season, which was very impressive as well.

And the McColgan/St. Croix post about them having a 50/50 shot at sniffing the AHL is quite incorrect as well.

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07-29-2011, 11:45 PM
  #91
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Statistically, more than half of all 4/5 round picks wind up in leagues below the AHL/KHL/SEL. Look it up.

As for those isle prospects, maybe you are right but from what I saw and read, none impressed me enough to thunk they will be top 6. We'll see.

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07-30-2011, 12:41 AM
  #92
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RangerEsq View Post
Statistically, more than half of all 4/5 round picks wind up in leagues below the AHL/KHL/SEL. Look it up.

As for those isle prospects, maybe you are right but from what I saw and read, none impressed me enough to thunk they will be top 6. We'll see.
You do know that Kabanov was once thought to be the 3rd overall pick behind Hall and Seguin in 2010 right? The only reason he fell is because he has problems with his attitude. Lee, Nelson and Cizikas all have great upside and make an impact everywhere they go.

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07-30-2011, 01:31 AM
  #93
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Originally Posted by islesfan3991 View Post
You do know that Kabanov was once thought to be the 3rd overall pick behind Hall and Seguin in 2010 right? The only reason he fell is because he has problems with his attitude.

That's the kind of BS fans love to eat up that really doesn't matter. McColgan was once considered for #1 or #2 overall and was thought to be on par with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

But guess what! He wasn't and neither was Kabanov. In both cases fans excuse problems by saying, "the only reason blah blah blah." Nobody cares.

I would also rather have ANY other reason for his collapse than bad attitude and work ethic. I would MUCH rather get someone who fell in the rankings because he was badly injured. Injuries heal, but bad attitude more often than not prevents one from even reaching the NHL and usually means he'll be done playing hockey (or at best is down in the ECHL) by the time he's 26-27.

Do you remember Jason Bonsignore? Probably not. He went #4 overall in 1994.

He was huge, could skate really well, tremendous skills. But bad attitude and work ethic. He became an AHL third liner and then went down to the ECHL and the second-tier Swiss league, not even the top Swiss league.

Attitude problems are the biggest cancer there is. Nobody even wants to give you a chance because you are a bad influence on others. Just as guys like Adam Graves and Ryan Callahan inspire others by example, problem children do just the opposite.

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07-30-2011, 01:46 AM
  #94
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Islanders forwards are better.

Our defense and goaltending is much better.
Pretty much. But if you're going with young as in prospects I can't say that about goaltending. Rangers goaltending is far better now and for the forseeable future.

Quote:
Originally Posted by RangerEsq View Post
Kabanov maxes out as a third liner. Maybe a crappy one, maybe a great one, but a third liner nonetheless.
Kabanov will never be a third liner. If he isn't a top 6 player he will not play in the NHL at all. I think it's top 6 or nothing with him.

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07-30-2011, 01:51 AM
  #95
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This percentage stuff is nonsense. Watch the player. This isn't EA sports...
lol Thank you.

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07-30-2011, 02:15 AM
  #96
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I think Cizikas has the least potential of the guys mentioned, but he can top out as a 2nd liner
Czikas to me has the future potential to be a John Madden/Kris Draper kind of player or one may only hope although I don't see it Mike Peca. Good chance he becomes a very good third line checking center who may get 40 points, but if he becomes a top 6 player I will be surprised. My guess is if the Islanders resign Frans Nielsen before next summer, Czikas will most likely be traded since both would fill that same role

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07-30-2011, 02:56 AM
  #97
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i would be shocked if Kabanov ever plays any meaningful minutes in the NHL.....


Isles have way more Boom type prospects, but youd need a few of them to really blossom for them to outweigh the Rangers sure fire NHLers. Is it possible? absolutely, and John Tavares is better than any player listed on either list, so the Isles have a big ole feather in their cap there....with that said, the Rangers team, as it stands now, and in the future, should be better than the Islanders for a long, long time. The islanders aren't a team that players want to play for, it's as simple as that. The Rangers are. Could it turn around? I suppose, but I dont buy it.

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07-30-2011, 03:58 AM
  #98
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Isles have way more Boom type prospects, but youd need a few of them to really blossom for them to outweigh the Rangers sure fire NHLers. Is it possible? absolutely, and John Tavares is better than any player listed on either list, so the Isles have a big ole feather in their cap there....with that said, the Rangers team, as it stands now, and in the future, should be better than the Islanders for a long, long time. The islanders aren't a team that players want to play for, it's as simple as that. The Rangers are. Could it turn around? I suppose, but I dont buy it.
The big advantage the Rangers have over the Islanders is they have an owner who will spend to the cap and bury players in the minors. Now if the Arena deal goes through for the Islanders and Wang is willing to spend more that could minimize that advantage.

As for the case of players wanting to sign, I think it's a case if the Islanders become a winning team with stability in terms of "where will they play in X amount of years" that won't be an issue.

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07-30-2011, 04:51 AM
  #99
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Tavares and Strome are head and shoulders ahead of everyone else here in terms of offensive talent, and that does give the Islanders an advantage. We have more depth, however, and they don't really have a counterpart for Callahan, either.

Here's how I would rank both team's forwards (including prospects) in terms of value, taking account current status, future potential, and chances of reaching said potential.

Tavares
Strome
Callahan
Dubinsky
Stepan
Grabner
Moulson
Thomas
Kreider
Neiderreiter
Anisimov
Nielsen
Fasth
Miller
Bailey
Kabanov
Hagelin
MZA
Nelson
Lindberg
Comeau

There's a significant drop at this point, so I'll stop here.

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07-30-2011, 05:51 AM
  #100
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Originally Posted by Sting36e View Post
Thomas
Kreider
Neiderreiter
I think you have these 3 in the wrong order. Neiderreiter has the highest upside of the 3, Kreider has better upside then Thomas plus the fact he is the safest guy of the 3 to end up a serviceable player if he doesn't reach that upside and Thomas to me is boom or bust

I also think you are giving way to much love to borderline Ranger prospects(fasth, Hagelin, MZA, Lindberg) that are somewhat boom or Bust(if jack of all trade, master of none type players like Callahan and Dubinsky are 3 and 4 on your list then jack of all trades, master of none Comeau should be way higher then the Rangers fringe prospects)


Last edited by boredmale: 07-30-2011 at 06:00 AM.
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