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Trade and 2012 UFA possibilities to add another scorer

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Old
07-30-2011, 01:13 PM
  #51
Rangers1135
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zuccarello Awesome View Post
Lets say pittsburgh breaks the bank for parise next sunmer and need to shed salary: Anisimov, 2nd for jordan staal

Boyle Richards Gaborik
Dubinsky Staal Callahan
Kreider Stepan Zuccarello
Fedotenko Rupp Prust

Staal Erixon
McDonagh Sauer
Del Zotto Girardi
Eminger

Lundqvist
Biron
That would be a good trade.

Girardi with Staal.

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Old
07-30-2011, 01:17 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by CH2 View Post
Why? Similar players, similar age, Staal has a larger cap hit. Keep Anisimov, keep the second. Done.
Certainly a valid point. I'm just a huge staal fan and think he fits this teams identity better than artie. Mostly due to the physicality advantage. Jordan is the type of player you need to win cups. Not saying Artie isn't but I'd make the deal. Givin up a second round pick is well worth that upgrade in my opinion. Also would like to see what it could do for Marc staals game an confidence/comfort level. Also think Dubi-j. Staal-cally would be absolutely insane.

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07-30-2011, 01:23 PM
  #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zuccarello Awesome View Post
Lets say pittsburgh breaks the bank for parise next sunmer and need to shed salary: Anisimov, 2nd for jordan staal

Boyle Richards Gaborik
Dubinsky Staal Callahan
Kreider Stepan Zuccarello
Fedotenko Rupp Prust

Staal Erixon
McDonagh Sauer
Del Zotto Girardi
Eminger

Lundqvist
Biron
Brian Boyle, first line Left Wing? do not want.

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Old
07-30-2011, 01:30 PM
  #54
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I went through a pretty detailed analysis of the Rangers' cap situation for next summer in the 2012 Ranger Free Agents and our bright future thread and, taking everything into account (backup goalie, RFA 6th defenseman, ~$500K wiggle room for in-season callups, etc.), the Rangers will have no problem clearing $7.5-8.0MM in cap space comfortably - without any trades, demotions or other maneuvers to get there. AND, importantly, they can do it without forcing any tough decisions in 2013-2014.

If they push the envelope by replacing Prust (who will be due a raise to over $1MM) with a guy making his current salary or less, signing a backup goalie for only $600K or so (as opposed to ~$1MM), carrying only 6 D, using a kid out of the minors for that 6th D next year (as opposed to signing MDZ/VTank to an Anisimov-like RFA deal), etc. they can easily get to $9MM+ in cap space, without relying on help from the new CBA.

The team is incredibly well positioned to go after Parise. (And I would imagine would have a very solid leg up in getting him, given the fact that we'd be instant cup favorites with him and the fact that he wouldn't have to uproot his life to play here - just change his commuting route.)

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Old
07-30-2011, 01:33 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by FultonReed View Post
Brian Boyle, first line Left Wing? do not want.
I wouldn't be so sure of that if I were you. Nobody thought Fulton reed could play but once he learned how to skate (and stop!) he was a new player!

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07-30-2011, 01:34 PM
  #56
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I just want home grown talent and a cup. That's all lol. Sather, make it happen or I'm going to shoot you. Lol

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07-30-2011, 01:37 PM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zuccarello Awesome View Post
I wouldn't be so sure of that if I were you. Nobody thought Fulton reed could play but once he learned how to skate (and stop!) he was a new player!
yeah but then he was only utilized for his slap shot and his goon antics lol

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07-30-2011, 01:42 PM
  #58
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Sting,

Your analysis of the Debs being able to continue as a top team relies on all their prospects reaching their ceiling. Larsson is a franchise defenseman suddenly?

Let's look at past #4 picks, all of whom were pumped up just as much as Larsson, maybe more since 2011 is a weak draft. How many of them became franchise players? (franchise player = someone who is an All Star quality player most of his prime years, not just a quality second liner.)


1998: Bryan Allen - NO
1999: Pavel Brendl - NO
2000: Rostislav Klesla - NO
2001: Stephen Weiss - NO
2002: Joni Pitkanen - NO
2003: Nikolai Zherdev - NO
2004: Andrew Ladd - NO
2005: Benoit Pouliot - NO
2006: Nicklas Backstrom - YES
2007: Thomas Hickey - NO

The last 3 years are too soon to call.

So out of the 10 most recent drafts where we can judge results, only one player became a franchise player. There was also one outright bust - Brendl.

Odds say Larsson will become a solid top-4 defenseman, but not a franchise player.


Same with all their other prospects. To rely on Palmieri, Josefson, Tedenby and Hernique all becoming quality top-6 or even quality top-9 is asking for trouble. That's like the Rangers relying on Kreider, Thomas, Fasth and Zuccarello to all become high quality players. Would be nice, but it never works out that way.

If they re-sign Zajac and Parise (which I think will cost them about $14-15 annually combined since they will both be young UFAs), they will have a phenomenal trio, but then absolutely nothing. Except for the above prospects, literally every other forward is a UFA, and even the trio would all have to be re-signed to the overpaid UFA contracts.

No team can afford to sign 8 out of their 12 starting forwards as UFAs, and fit it under the cap, especially when you still will likely have to sign a goalie as a UFA, and the defense is already very highly paid.


P.S. Sorry, did you mean that Volchenkov is a franchise defenseman? He's a very good defenseman, an excellent one, but not a franchise defenseman, sorry. He's close, but not really a franchise player. I guess it depends how you define it, and I agree that he's a great crease clearer and shot blocker, but to me he's closer to a Jeff Beukeboom than a Scott Stevens or a Chris Chelios. I would like a franchise player to have at least marginal skills. That's what separates a guy like Marc Staal from a guy like Volchenkov.


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Old
07-30-2011, 02:02 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by FultonReed View Post
yeah but then he was only utilized for his slap shot and his goon antics lol
The reason for putting Boyle as a 1st line LW is because of his size, toughness, and ability to play along the boards. Richards and Gaborik are pure skill players, they shouldn't be playing along the boards. Plus, that line could use a big body to play around the net.

Bottom 6 would still be decent without Boyle.

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07-30-2011, 02:14 PM
  #60
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Larsson should be better than just a top 4 defender. He should fit in as a top pairing guy anyway but that's down the road a little.

There's no way of knowing what Parise and his agent thinks right now as far as his going UFA this coming summer. I don't think that LL can get away with getting him for cheap. If Kovalchuk is scoring a very long term $6.667m contract that might be a starting point considering Parise's getting a $6m deal just for this one year. Got to think that to get Zach's signature on another contract he's going to have to at least give him the same yearly salary and maybe more.

And however much the Devils give Zach (if in fact he does decide to re-sign with them) it's going to limit how much they can spend on other big time free agents. A lot may depend on how well the Devils do this year. New Jersey--just in and of itself is not a prime destination for a lot of players. The better that team is the more attractive it is. It's not like the Rangers, Toronto, Montreal, Boston, Chicago, Philadelphia etc.--teams that might attract big name players even if they're not that strong. If Zach decides somewhere along the line this season that the Devils are going nowhere any time soon--he's likely to jump ship. Since New Jersey can't re-sign him until January he has plenty of time to make that judgement.

There are plenty of question marks around that team:

1) new coaching staff with some of LL's leftover's like Robinson. How will that work out?--and will DeBoer implement his own system or does he inherit the Devils trap style?

2) will Kovalchuk work some chemistry with other forwards or is it going to be more of his 'I'll do it all myself' selfish play? And who gets Zajac?--Parise or Kovalchuk.

3) How much gas does Brodeur have in the tank? Hedberg's almost as old as he is and they don't have anyone in the system that looks like a legit No. 1. This may turn into the key issue over the next several years for the Devils.

4) Prospect wise--their strength is on defense. Larsson, Merrill, Urbom. It's questionable whether any of them are going to have any immediate impact. Merrill's going back to college anyway. For now they look average at best. Greene--the offensive leader. Volchenkov--the defensive heart. Tallinder--good positionally but soft. White--one good eye and seems to be declining. A bunch of unspectacular 5,6 and 7's. Josefsson looks like he'll be a good forward--maybe equal Anisimov. Tedenby I'm not so sure about. Lots of skill but size and strength could break him.

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07-30-2011, 02:14 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by Chalfdiggity3 View Post
I mean parise just signed a 1yr $6m deal. He is definatly worth a 4yr $5.5-6m per year contract. He's a 1st line player and exactly what we need. We will have about 7m in capspace this summer. It's nothing but capspace and depending upon how gabby plays we may not have to resign him for 7m,

Parise is worth MUCH more than $5.5 over 4 years. He will be a 28 year old franchise player hitting unrestricted free agency.

Richards signed a 6 year $57 million contract with 3 years thrown in just for the cap. That's $9.5 million a year when he actually plays! Parise will be 3 years younger and is at least as good - plus star Left Wings are more rare than centers.

He will get 12 year $85-90 million contract (including the 3 million dollar years for the cap). But the cap hit would be a manageable $7.25 a year.


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07-30-2011, 02:19 PM
  #62
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Originally Posted by broadwayblue View Post
Next year he's a UFA and can get market value. If he has a 40/40 season he'll be worth a Gaborik or Richards contract.

Gaborik was coming off an injury when he signed and Richards is 31. Parise will be 28 and hopefully healthy. He will get paid more. If nothing else, he will get a Richards-like contract, but with about 3 more years, which would take him to the age of 40

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07-30-2011, 02:40 PM
  #63
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Originally Posted by BrooklynRangersFan View Post
I went through a pretty detailed analysis of the Rangers' cap situation for next summer in the 2012 Ranger Free Agents and our bright future thread

Great analysis!

The only thing I disagree with is your assertion that Thomas is more likely to be ready next year than Kreider. I think it's the opposite.

Not only is Kreider older by a year, he also played against more adult competition. College lineups are mostly 20-22 year olds, whereas junior lineups are mostly 17-19 year olds, so Kreider is used to taking punishment along the boards from 180-210 pound men, and not from 160-170 pound teens. Playing against men in the World (Adult) Championship also helped him learn to play against adults.

Participating in the WJC, on the other hand, gave him experience playing with and against some of the most talented (young) players in the world. It was a great chance to learn to play against highly skilled players.



Thomas didn't have any of those 3 experiences, and his game is not as well suited for third line duty as Kreider's.

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07-30-2011, 02:41 PM
  #64
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I have no problems with giving Parise a Richards-esque contract. The only thing I'm worried about is that Stepan is going to surprise sooner rather than later and is going to want a big contract, too. If Parise is signed, we might have to make some tough decisions the year before Gaborik's contract is up. If McDonagh ends up as good as Staal, he's going to want to get paid, too. Frankly, these problems are easily solved if none of this happens until the year Gaborik's contract is up, but if Parise comes, I can't see any way we could hold onto Gaborik when his contract is up. Don't see any reason why we should, either, tbh. I feel like Thomas would be good enough for that role then, but I want to see how he does at the WJC before I pencil him into any NHL role. Kreider, I'm not too high on at this point, so I'm not too worried about any potential raises he might get. Curious how this season works out for him. Stepan, on the other hand, I think will command a big salary and soon.

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07-30-2011, 02:50 PM
  #65
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I have no problems with giving Parise a Richards-esque contract. The only thing I'm worried about is that Stepan is going to surprise sooner rather than later and is going to want a big contract, too. If Parise is signed, we might have to make some tough decisions the year before Gaborik's contract is up. If McDonagh ends up as good as Staal, he's going to want to get paid, too. Frankly, these problems are easily solved if none of this happens until the year Gaborik's contract is up, but if Parise comes, I can't see any way we could hold onto Gaborik when his contract is up. Don't see any reason why we should, either, tbh. I feel like Thomas would be good enough for that role then, but I want to see how he does at the WJC before I pencil him into any NHL role. Kreider, I'm not too high on at this point, so I'm not too worried about any potential raises he might get. Curious how this season works out for him. Stepan, on the other hand, I think will command a big salary and soon.

If Stepan becomes a star worthy of a big time contract and McDonagh or Erixon become as good as Staal, don't worry about re-signing Gaborik. We won't need to pay tens of millions on a multi-year contract to an oft-injured and by that point aging veteran.

Also, Step, McD and Erixon won't be eligible for unrestricted free agency for years after Gabby's current contract is done.

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07-30-2011, 02:56 PM
  #66
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Parise is worth MUCH more than $5.5 over 4 years. He will be a 28 year old franchise player hitting unrestricted free agency.

Richards signed a 6 year $57 million contract with 3 years thrown in just for the cap. That's $9.5 million a year when he actually plays! Parise will be 3 years younger and is at least as good - plus star Left Wings are more rare than centers.

He will get 12 year $85-90 million contract (including the 3 million dollar years for the cap). But the cap hit would be a manageable $7.25 a year.
you honestly believe that he will want to sign a 12 year deal? i think hell want another contract or two after he turns 30 to figure out what he wants. Which is to win Championships. I think we have a young playoff caliber team that is 1 or 2 more peices away from being SC contenders and Parise would be 1 of those 2 peices needed. Yea he will cost around 6.5m per year but he would instantly become part of our core. He would be a manageable hit for a year or two until gaborik comes off the books. We could even make trades to stay under the cap bc we now have a steady influx of young players ready to come in and play.. ex - Krieder, Thomas, Hagelin,.. Fasth Lindberg. Idk i think it would be a good problem to have..

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07-30-2011, 03:02 PM
  #67
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Also, if our players become stars we can't afford, we can always move them for a bunch of young players on their ELC.

Think about it, would you trade Anisimov, McDonagh and #1 for Eric Staal? Yes, you would. So we could do something in reverse if our own guys become so good we can't afford all those salaries. ELC's are beautiful because they allow us to have the cap space for stars.

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07-30-2011, 03:05 PM
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you honestly believe that he will want to sign a 12 year deal? i think hell want another contract or two after he turns 30 to figure out what he wants. Which is to win Championships. I think we have a young playoff caliber team that is 1 or 2 more peices away from being SC contenders and Parise would be 1 of those 2 peices needed. Yea he will cost around 6.5m per year but he would instantly become part of our core. He would be a manageable hit for a year or two until gaborik comes off the books. We could even make trades to stay under the cap bc we now have a steady influx of young players ready to come in and play.. ex - Krieder, Thomas, Hagelin,.. Fasth Lindberg. Idk i think it would be a good problem to have..
Every single player in the NHL should be willing to kill for a retirement/cap circumvention contract. Do you have an idea how much additional money it allows them to pull in? Just compare the contract we signed Richards for to what the Leafs were offering on a non-cap circumvention deal (6 years x 7m).

$12m v. $7m [$5 million difference]
$12m v. $7m [$5 million difference]
$9m v. $7m [$2 million difference]
$8.5m v. $7m [$1.5 million difference]
$8.5m v. $7m [$1.5 million difference]
$7m v. $7m [$1.5 million difference]
$1m
$1m
$1m

The Leafs deal would've been a $7m cap hit, and the Rangers cap hit is only $6.67m. The Rangers are paying Richards $16.5m more than the Leafs would over 6 years for a lower freaking cap hit.

There is not a sane player in the NHL that shouldn't be looking for one of these deals.

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07-30-2011, 03:09 PM
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you honestly believe that he will want to sign a 12 year deal? i think hell want another contract or two after he turns 30 to figure out what he wants. Which is to win Championships. I think we have a young playoff caliber team that is 1 or 2 more peices away from being SC contenders and Parise would be 1 of those 2 peices needed. Yea he will cost around 6.5m per year but he would instantly become part of our core. He would be a manageable hit for a year or two until gaborik comes off the books. We could even make trades to stay under the cap bc we now have a steady influx of young players ready to come in and play.. ex - Krieder, Thomas, Hagelin,.. Fasth Lindberg. Idk i think it would be a good problem to have..

I see no other way. Why would he sign a contract at 32 when he can sign it at 28? He would get paid more as a 28 year old than as a 32 year old, and who knows if he gets injured in those 4 years.

If you can sign a 12-year, $85-90 contract, you do it. This will give him about $110 million over the course of his career. Even after taxes, that's still a very nice $60-65 million. And he gets to control his destiny with a No Movement Clause.

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07-30-2011, 03:31 PM
  #70
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Great analysis!

The only thing I disagree with is your assertion that Thomas is more likely to be ready next year than Kreider. I think it's the opposite.

Not only is Kreider older by a year, he also played against more adult competition. College lineups are mostly 20-22 year olds, whereas junior lineups are mostly 17-19 year olds, so Kreider is used to taking punishment along the boards from 180-210 pound men, and not from 160-170 pound teens. Playing against men in the World (Adult) Championship also helped him learn to play against adults.

Participating in the WJC, on the other hand, gave him experience playing with and against some of the most talented (young) players in the world. It was a great chance to learn to play against highly skilled players.



Thomas didn't have any of those 3 experiences, and his game is not as well suited for third line duty as Kreider's.
I hear you - and frankly, I was on the fence about that.

Here's my rationale as to why I went with Thomas:

1) There's an outside chance Thomas might make the team THIS year and simply carry over. At the very least, I think think he is going to come in to the AHL at the end of his OHL year this year and make his mark. Either way, he will have had time with the organization's coaches during the camps every year since his draft and will actually have played under them multiple times even before going into camp in 2012; whereas Kreider will be coming in completely fresh due to the NCAA eligibility rules.

2) I think Thomas is going to come in to camp next year and simply start scoring. And in so doing, will force the team to keep him.

3) Perhaps most importantly, I DO see the team going after Parise. So, if they get him, the roster next year going into camp looks like...

Parise-Richards-Gaborik
Dubinsky-Anisimov-Callahan
Hagelin-Stepan-_______
Rupp-Boyle-Prust

... then, Thomas has a natural advantage, because the need is right wing, not left.

Regardless, if it's Kreider instead of Thomas, the numbers still work, because you simply take some of the extra out of my "odds and ends" segment (which was goosed in part to allow for calling Kreider up in season) and perhaps sign a cheaper backup goalie. Bingo - you have the same amount of room.

(Heck, who knows, Fasth might blow the team away and get picked over both of them!)


Last edited by BrooklynRangersFan: 07-30-2011 at 03:36 PM.
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07-30-2011, 03:58 PM
  #71
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Putting my 2 cents in here, I do not see us signing Parise. Would I cream in my pants if we did? Yes, I would. In fact..I would personally track down Adam Graves and Harry Howell and be them to let Zach wear # 9. But I just think in the end, Parise is going to remain loyal to the Devils.

Patrick Sharp on the other hand, I think we could have a chance to sign him. And I think he would be an awesome addition. He is a clutch goal scorer and has won it before, and therefore could provide that leadership and Stanley cup experience that could put our boys over the top.

Semin is a possibility, but he's very one dimensional. And I just don't know if he a.) fits in to the Torts system, or b.) will be as successful not playing with Ovy. Does that mean he couldn't succeed here? No. But I'm just no a huge fan.

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07-30-2011, 03:59 PM
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Originally Posted by BrooklynRangersFan View Post
I hear you - and frankly, I was on the fence about that.

Here's my rationale as to why I went with Thomas:

1) There's an outside chance Thomas might make the team THIS year and simply carry over. At the very least, I think think he is going to come in to the AHL at the end of his OHL year this year and make his mark. Either way, he will have had time with the organization's coaches during the camps every year since his draft and will actually have played under them multiple times even before going into camp in 2012; whereas Kreider will be coming in completely fresh due to the NCAA eligibility rules.

2) I think Thomas is going to come in to camp next year and simply start scoring. And in so doing, will force the team to keep him.

3) Perhaps most importantly, I DO see the team going after Parise. So, if they get him, the roster next year going into camp looks like...

Parise-Richards-Gaborik
Dubinsky-Anisimov-Callahan
Hagelin-Stepan-_______
Rupp-Boyle-Prust

... then, Thomas has a natural advantage, because the need is right wing, not left.

Regardless, if it's Kreider instead of Thomas, the numbers still work, because you simply take some of the extra out of my "odds and ends" segment (which was goosed in part to allow for calling Kreider up in season) and perhaps sign a cheaper backup goalie. Bingo - you have the same amount of room.

(Heck, who knows, Fasth might blow the team away and get picked over both of them!)
Lundmark scored a bunch of goals one training camp but simply wasn't ready--as far as strength or defensive awareness. Thomas seems like a player--just because of the unlikelihood that he's going to get much bigger--who is going to have to get stronger in order to make it. Kreider on the other hand--is not as naturally as gifted as a goal scorer but physically is a beast and going to get even stronger--if not better in other areas. Chris could play in the NHL right now--though I'd imagine he'd be bottom 6 at this point in time.

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07-30-2011, 04:08 PM
  #73
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Originally Posted by eco's bones View Post
Lundmark scored a bunch of goals one training camp but simply wasn't ready--as far as strength or defensive awareness. Thomas seems like a player--just because of the unlikelihood that he's going to get much bigger--who is going to have to get stronger in order to make it. Kreider on the other hand--is not as naturally as gifted as a goal scorer but physically is a beast and going to get even stronger--if not better in other areas. Chris could play in the NHL right now--though I'd imagine he'd be bottom 6 at this point in time.
Oh, I hear ya - I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out as you say. Nor would I be disappointed! I just have a gut feeling (in addition to the points I made).

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07-30-2011, 04:22 PM
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Originally Posted by BrooklynRangersFan View Post
Oh, I hear ya - I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out as you say. Nor would I be disappointed! I just have a gut feeling (in addition to the points I made).
I look at someone like Zuccarello--who is a truly gifted player-older and stockier than Thomas--and the problems he had last year. Tortorella is very much about players being able to make plays on both sides of the puck and all areas of the ice. Thomas might hang around in training camp for a while and even play a few exhibitions but I don't think he's going to make the team. I also think one of Zuccarello or Wolski are going to be gone--Wolski potentially traded and MZA potentially sent down--and that's for cap reasons. I think both Mitchell and Weise--cheaper options might be in the mix as 4th line or spare forwards.

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07-30-2011, 04:38 PM
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I would be very surprised if Kreider does not make it at some point in 2012-13. Maybe he'll start in Hartford, but by mid-season when injuries hit, he'll be called up. He'll be almost 22 by then and even if he's not perfectly developed, he can always start in a Sjostrom-role.

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