HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Eastern Conference > Metropolitan Division > New York Rangers
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

Official MLB Thread Part 2 (All Mets, Yankees and MLB talk)

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
Old
08-02-2011, 12:16 AM
  #726
Machinehead
Moderator
1st pair Boyle
 
Machinehead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Land of no Defense
Country: United States
Posts: 47,340
vCash: 50
I care about 5 stats when it comes to pitching

1)ERA
2)ERA
3)ERA
4)ERA
5)W-L record

You can keep the rest.

Machinehead is offline  
Old
08-02-2011, 12:17 AM
  #727
BlueshirtBlitz
Rich Nash
 
BlueshirtBlitz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: New York
Posts: 19,738
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
I care about 5 stats when it comes to pitching

1)ERA
2)ERA
3)ERA
4)ERA
5)W-L record

You can keep the rest.
W-L?

really?

I mean ERA, fine. If you don't wanna go into FIP and everything, alright. But win loss is ridiculous considering the variables that go into it.

BlueshirtBlitz is offline  
Old
08-02-2011, 12:18 AM
  #728
darko
Registered User
 
darko's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Country: Australia
Posts: 39,009
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
I don't put much stock in FIP considering the fact that fielders exist.

And you prefer to use ERA instead? Next thing you'll tell me is that you use batting average to evaluate a hitter.

darko is offline  
Old
08-02-2011, 12:18 AM
  #729
Machinehead
Moderator
1st pair Boyle
 
Machinehead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Land of no Defense
Country: United States
Posts: 47,340
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueshirtBlitz View Post
W-L?

really?

I mean ERA, fine. If you don't wanna go into FIP and everything, alright. But win loss is ridiculous considering the variables that go into it.
That's why it's 5th, to show how much more important ERA is. But I think some guys do have a knack for winning, I throw them a bone.

Machinehead is offline  
Old
08-02-2011, 12:19 AM
  #730
Machinehead
Moderator
1st pair Boyle
 
Machinehead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Land of no Defense
Country: United States
Posts: 47,340
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by darko View Post
And you prefer to use ERA instead? Next thing you'll tell me is that you use batting average to evaluate a hitter.
No of course not. Getting hits is a poor way to evaluate hitting...

I don't use goals to evaluate scoring either btw.

Machinehead is offline  
Old
08-02-2011, 12:19 AM
  #731
darko
Registered User
 
darko's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Country: Australia
Posts: 39,009
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
I care about 5 stats when it comes to pitching

1)ERA
2)ERA
3)ERA
4)ERA
5)W-L record

You can keep the rest.
So Kevin Correia is a better pitcher than Tim Lincecum?


Gotcha...

darko is offline  
Old
08-02-2011, 12:21 AM
  #732
Machinehead
Moderator
1st pair Boyle
 
Machinehead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Land of no Defense
Country: United States
Posts: 47,340
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by darko View Post
So Kevin Correia is a better pitcher than Tim Lincecum?


Gotcha...
Like I said, certain guys find ways to win games even without their best stuff. So once in awhile I will consider wins. It's not to main thing I use nor do I use it every time. Like CC for example. His ERA isn't the lowest, but he just wins, even when he's a little off like he was tonight.

Machinehead is offline  
Old
08-02-2011, 12:24 AM
  #733
Machinehead
Moderator
1st pair Boyle
 
Machinehead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Land of no Defense
Country: United States
Posts: 47,340
vCash: 50
I'm totally anti-Sabremetrics. I feel it's a mediocre attempt at explaining an unscientific sport that simply can't be explained.

Machinehead is offline  
Old
08-02-2011, 12:26 AM
  #734
BlueshirtBlitz
Rich Nash
 
BlueshirtBlitz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: New York
Posts: 19,738
vCash: 500
I don't know, I got into baseball because of Sabre, sort of. I thought it was pretty boring before I started following Sabremetrics.

BlueshirtBlitz is offline  
Old
08-02-2011, 12:28 AM
  #735
Machinehead
Moderator
1st pair Boyle
 
Machinehead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Land of no Defense
Country: United States
Posts: 47,340
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueshirtBlitz View Post
I don't know, I got into baseball because of Sabre, sort of. I thought it was pretty boring before I started following Sabremetrics.
That's fine. I've got nothing against people using them, but for me personally I was brought up on raw stats.

Machinehead is offline  
Old
08-02-2011, 12:35 AM
  #736
darko
Registered User
 
darko's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Country: Australia
Posts: 39,009
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
Like I said, certain guys find ways to win games even without their best stuff. So once in awhile I will consider wins. It's not to main thing I use nor do I use it every time. Like CC for example. His ERA isn't the lowest, but he just wins, even when he's a little off like he was tonight.

Wins is all about 'team'. It's out of pitcher's hands.

Doug Fister is 3-12 with 3.33 ERA and 3.91 xFIP (3.0 WAR)
Alexi Ogando is 10-5 with 2.88 ERA and 3.84 xFIP (2.5 WAR)

Ogando plays for Rangers and gets 7.5 runs per start from their offense. Fister on the other hand gets measly 3 runs a game from pathetic Mariners offense. Why should Fister be considered a scrub when he pitches for Mariners and needs to pitch a great game to have a shot at getting a W?

W-L is flawed like you wouldnt believe. That's why Felix Hernandez won Cy Young last season with 13-12 W-L record. And rightfully so.

darko is offline  
Old
08-02-2011, 12:38 AM
  #737
Leetch3
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,451
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by darko View Post
So Kevin Correia is a better pitcher than Tim Lincecum?


Gotcha...
lincecum's era is almost 1.5 runs a game better so based on criteria 1, 2, 3 and 4 he is better and you never get to W-L. if correia lowered his era by a run and half and the era was the same, then they would be even thru the first 4 and correia gets the edge based on wins.

ultimately it all comes down to runs. offensively, runs scored/driven in, defensively, runs given up/prevented. and you can come up with all the fancy stats and metrics and graphs you want but bottom line its about runs. its really that simple as that.

the pitcher with a terrible whip, opp ba, etc that doesn't give up runs is better than the guy with a great whip that gives up a bunch of runs...in reality those aren't independent of each other and more often than not the guy with the terrible whip will give up more runs but it still comes down to runs. give me a starter that gives me inning and keeps runs off the board

*waits for Sabremetric crew to laugh at referencing an 'ancient' stat like whip lol*

Leetch3 is offline  
Old
08-02-2011, 12:39 AM
  #738
Machinehead
Moderator
1st pair Boyle
 
Machinehead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Land of no Defense
Country: United States
Posts: 47,340
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by darko View Post
Wins is all about 'team'. It's out of pitcher's hands.

Doug Fister is 3-12 with 3.33 ERA and 3.91 xFIP (3.0 WAR)
Alexi Ogando is 10-5 with 2.88 ERA and 3.84 xFIP (2.5 WAR)

Ogando plays for Rangers and gets 7.5 runs per start from their offense. Fister on the other hand gets measly 3 runs a game from pathetic Mariners offense. Why should Fister be considered a scrub when he pitches for Mariners and needs to pitch a great game to have a shot at getting a W?

W-L is flawed like you wouldnt believe. That's why Felix Hernandez won Cy Young last season with 13-12 W-L record. And rightfully so.
99% of the time I don't care about W-L. I'll note it in extremely rare cases, like when Alfredo Aceves went 10-0 out of the pen in '09 and I said that was pretty impressive. That's why it's up there. Don't overreact.

Machinehead is offline  
Old
08-02-2011, 12:40 AM
  #739
Machinehead
Moderator
1st pair Boyle
 
Machinehead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Land of no Defense
Country: United States
Posts: 47,340
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by CM PUNK View Post
lincecum's era is almost 1.5 runs a game better so based on criteria 1, 2, 3 and 4 he is better and you never get to W-L. if correia lowered his era by a run and half and the era was the same, then they would be even thru the first 4 and correia gets the edge based on wins.

ultimately it all comes down to runs. offensively, runs scored/driven in, defensively, runs given up/prevented. and you can come up with all the fancy stats and metrics and graphs you want but bottom line its about runs. its really that simple as that.

the pitcher with a terrible whip, opp ba, etc that doesn't give up runs is better than the guy with a great whip that gives up a bunch of runs...in reality those aren't independent of each other and more often than not the guy with the terrible whip will give up more runs but it still comes down to runs. give me a starter that gives me inning and keeps runs off the board

*waits for Sabremetric crew to laugh at referencing an 'ancient' stat like whip lol*
Yeah exactly, 1, 2, 3, and 4. So Lincecum wins

Machinehead is offline  
Old
08-02-2011, 12:43 AM
  #740
BlueshirtBlitz
Rich Nash
 
BlueshirtBlitz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: New York
Posts: 19,738
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by CM PUNK View Post
lincecum's era is almost 1.5 runs a game better so based on criteria 1, 2, 3 and 4 he is better and you never get to W-L. if correia lowered his era by a run and half and the era was the same, then they would be even thru the first 4 and correia gets the edge based on wins.

ultimately it all comes down to runs. offensively, runs scored/driven in, defensively, runs given up/prevented. and you can come up with all the fancy stats and metrics and graphs you want but bottom line its about runs. its really that simple as that.

the pitcher with a terrible whip, opp ba, etc that doesn't give up runs is better than the guy with a great whip that gives up a bunch of runs...in reality those aren't independent of each other and more often than not the guy with the terrible whip will give up more runs but it still comes down to runs. give me a starter that gives me inning and keeps runs off the board

*waits for Sabremetric crew to laugh at referencing an 'ancient' stat like whip lol*
Usually though, the WHIP and xFIP stats are the ones that let you really see how many runs a pitcher is good for, or how they will perform.

Look at the Mets and Mike Pelfrey. In every year except his first, Pelf has ad an ERA of 3.72, 5.03, 3.66 and this year he has an ERA of 4.55. Really inconsistent, right? You could say that Pelf is just an inconsistent pitcher and it's hard to hit the bullseye on how he'd perform game in and game out.

But, looking at his xFIP, you get this- 4.45, 4.47, 4.31, 4.43. MUCH more consistent and it shows you the kind of pitcher Pelf is.

BlueshirtBlitz is offline  
Old
08-02-2011, 12:45 AM
  #741
Machinehead
Moderator
1st pair Boyle
 
Machinehead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Land of no Defense
Country: United States
Posts: 47,340
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueshirtBlitz View Post
Usually though, the WHIP and xFIP stats are the ones that let you really see how many runs a pitcher is good for, or how they will perform.

Look at the Mets and Mike Pelfrey. In every year except his first, Pelf has ad an ERA of 3.72, 5.03, 3.66 and this year he has an ERA of 4.55. Really inconsistent, right? You could say that Pelf is just an inconsistent pitcher and it's hard to hit the bullseye on how he'd perform game in and game out.

But, looking at his xFIP, you get this- 4.45, 4.47, 4.31, 4.43. MUCH more consistent and it shows you the kind of pitcher Pelf is.
How does xFIP help with say a sinker-ball pitcher though, who would be fielder-dependent on almost every out?

Machinehead is offline  
Old
08-02-2011, 12:45 AM
  #742
Leetch3
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,451
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by darko View Post
Wins is all about 'team'. It's out of pitcher's hands.

Doug Fister is 3-12 with 3.33 ERA and 3.91 xFIP (3.0 WAR)
Alexi Ogando is 10-5 with 2.88 ERA and 3.84 xFIP (2.5 WAR)

Ogando plays for Rangers and gets 7.5 runs per start from their offense. Fister on the other hand gets measly 3 runs a game from pathetic Mariners offense. Why should Fister be considered a scrub when he pitches for Mariners and needs to pitch a great game to have a shot at getting a W?

W-L is flawed like you wouldnt believe. That's why Felix Hernandez won Cy Young last season with 13-12 W-L record. And rightfully so.
i agree complete with what you are saying but i think that is covered by common sense. i don't need a statistic to tell me that 15 wins on the yankees getting 7 runs/game support isn't the same as 15 wins on the mariners getting 2 runs per game

what happened to the good old days when fans actually watched the game and came to an opinion on how good a player was or wasnt based on what they saw with their own eyes instead of what some formula in an excel spreadsheet told them?

Leetch3 is offline  
Old
08-02-2011, 12:48 AM
  #743
BlueshirtBlitz
Rich Nash
 
BlueshirtBlitz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: New York
Posts: 19,738
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
How does xFIP help with say a sinker-ball pitcher though, who would be fielder-dependent on almost every out?
I'm not certain how that would work because i'm relatively new to baseball, but I assume you'd use other sabre stats like BABIP and WHIP. BABIP probably makes the most sense for a sinkerball pitcher, who you'd want to have a low BABIP and could assume some regression if their ERA was low with a high BABIP.

BlueshirtBlitz is offline  
Old
08-02-2011, 12:50 AM
  #744
BlueshirtBlitz
Rich Nash
 
BlueshirtBlitz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: New York
Posts: 19,738
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by CM PUNK View Post
i agree complete with what you are saying but i think that is covered by common sense. i don't need a statistic to tell me that 15 wins on the yankees getting 7 runs/game support isn't the same as 15 wins on the mariners getting 2 runs per game

what happened to the good old days when fans actually watched the game and came to an opinion on how good a player was or wasnt based on what they saw with their own eyes instead of what some formula in an excel spreadsheet told them?
It's hard to watch every player, especially since baseball is played every day. I'm trying to really get into baseball (only really got into it this year and it provides a perfect way to withstand hockeyless summers)

Hunter Pence, for example. Looking at his performance this year, you might be really upset to see the Phillies get him. However, since I see his BABIP is much higher than his career norm, I can come to the conclusion it's not nearly as bad for the rest of the NL East as it may seem.

BlueshirtBlitz is offline  
Old
08-02-2011, 12:51 AM
  #745
Leetch3
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,451
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueshirtBlitz View Post
Usually though, the WHIP and xFIP stats are the ones that let you really see how many runs a pitcher is good for, or how they will perform.

Look at the Mets and Mike Pelfrey. In every year except his first, Pelf has ad an ERA of 3.72, 5.03, 3.66 and this year he has an ERA of 4.55. Really inconsistent, right? You could say that Pelf is just an inconsistent pitcher and it's hard to hit the bullseye on how he'd perform game in and game out.

But, looking at his xFIP, you get this- 4.45, 4.47, 4.31, 4.43. MUCH more consistent and it shows you the kind of pitcher Pelf is.
i agree that those stats can be indicators for how many runs the guy will give up.

but from watching with my own 2 eyes i can tell you that mike pelfrey has been inconsistent, maybe more start to start than year to year. but the inconsistent era is more inline with my gut review of him than the consistent xFIP. and maybe i'm too hard on him as a fan and i'm sure there are tons of examples that would work the opposite way, this example isn't convincing me completely LOL

Leetch3 is offline  
Old
08-02-2011, 12:52 AM
  #746
darko
Registered User
 
darko's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Country: Australia
Posts: 39,009
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by CM PUNK View Post
lincecum's era is almost 1.5 runs a game better so based on criteria 1, 2, 3 and 4 he is better and you never get to W-L. if correia lowered his era by a run and half and the era was the same, then they would be even thru the first 4 and correia gets the edge based on wins.

Try this one then.

Correia - 12-8, 4.24 ERA
Madison Bumgarner - 6-10, 3.80 ERA

or Josh Tomlin - 11-5, 4.01 ERA v Bumgarner

Less than 0.5 ERA difference between Correia and Bum and 0.21 between Tomlin and Bum (not much in it). Yet Correia and Tomlin have 'combined' WAR of 2.5 while Bumgarner is 3.9.


People can choose to use ERA which is flawed. That's fine, ERA isnt all that bad. Using W-L record is bordering on lunacy.

darko is offline  
Old
08-02-2011, 12:52 AM
  #747
Machinehead
Moderator
1st pair Boyle
 
Machinehead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Land of no Defense
Country: United States
Posts: 47,340
vCash: 50
People say baseball is boring but it certainly produces the best arguments imo

Machinehead is offline  
Old
08-02-2011, 12:53 AM
  #748
BlueshirtBlitz
Rich Nash
 
BlueshirtBlitz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: New York
Posts: 19,738
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by CM PUNK View Post
i agree that those stats can be indicators for how many runs the guy will give up.

but from watching with my own 2 eyes i can tell you that mike pelfrey has been inconsistent, maybe more start to start than year to year. but the inconsistent era is more inline with my gut review of him than the consistent xFIP. and maybe i'm too hard on him as a fan and i'm sure there are tons of examples that would work the opposite way, this example isn't convincing me completely LOL
Well yeah, but the truth is he's VERY consistent (to an extent, I know it sounds stupid but follow me for a sec )- he's consistently a bottom of the rotation reliever who can eat innings. He's not as good as his 3.xx era years and not as bad as his 5.xx era year. That's the pitcher he is, which is much harder to gauge if you're just using ERA.

BlueshirtBlitz is offline  
Old
08-02-2011, 01:11 AM
  #749
darko
Registered User
 
darko's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Country: Australia
Posts: 39,009
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
How does xFIP help with say a sinker-ball pitcher though, who would be fielder-dependent on almost every out?

You are missing the point.

FIP= Fielder Independant Pitching
xFIP= basically FIP but instead of HRs they apply fly ball league average because HR rate can flactuate alot with pitchers on a year to year basis.

What it does is it puts all pitchers on the same level so it doesnt matter whether you have 4 potential gold glovers in your infield or 4 Dan Uggla's.


Defense will reflect on ERA. It wot reflect on FIP and xFIP. Think of FIP and xFIP as advanced ERA.


Quote:
Fielding Independent Pitching, FIP, is nice because it completely excludes defense from the metric. All it cares about is home runs, walks, strike outs, and innings pitched, with weighted modifiers for each. While this does undervalue some skills and pitchers who are better in certain parks, it does give a good starting point for discussing a pitcher's value. It is also scaled so that it is comparable to looking at a pitcher's ERA so that a 4.01 FIP is the same as thinking of a 4.01 ERA. Since 2007, Guthrie has a FIP of 4.69. Of the 60 pitchers with 600 or more innings since 2007, that ranks 54th.

xFIP is similar to FIP in that it measures the same things, but instead of counting actual home runs, it measures fly balls and applies a league average home run per fly ball ratio. This is because studies have shown that the large majority of pitchers have very little ability to affect how often fly balls leave the park. The FIP scale was intended to be on a similar scale to FIP and ERA, but it is slightly higher so that a 4.01 xFIP is better than a 4.01 FIP. Since 2007, Guthrie has an xFIP of 4.74, which is 53rd out of 60 for pitchers with at least 600 over that time span.
Disregard Guthrie comments. Got this from an article they were discussing him.

darko is offline  
Old
08-02-2011, 02:02 AM
  #750
Hockey Team
Hunger Force
 
Hockey Team's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: New York, NY
Country: United States
Posts: 4,551
vCash: 50
There's no 1 stat that determines how good a pitcher is.

To say ERA is basically everything is ridiculous.

Take CC for example, if he's got a 10 run lead, he's going to throw a lot more strikes, and strikes closer to the middle of the plate versus nibbling the corners. That's going to result in more hits, and more runs, but that's what a quality pitcher will do, because when you have a huge lead, the last thing you do is walk a guy and start giving them free passes.

Even unearned runs say things about the pitcher. First off, if the pitcher's the one committing the errors, that sure as hell counts against him. An ace has to be good at fielding his position too. If there's a lot of passed balls, even though it's charged to the catcher, it usually has something to do with the pitcher's style as well. A knuckleballer is going to have a lot more passed balls compared to the rest of the pitching staff even with that same catcher. And obviously certain types of balls in play generate more errors then others.

But overall, ERA is a pretty good indicator, but like all stats it has it's flaws

Hockey Team is offline  
Closed Thread

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:53 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2015, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2015 All Rights Reserved.