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Official MLB Thread Part 2 (All Mets, Yankees and MLB talk)

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Old
08-02-2011, 02:08 AM
  #751
Machinehead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darko View Post
You are missing the point.

FIP= Fielder Independant Pitching
xFIP= basically FIP but instead of HRs they apply fly ball league average because HR rate can flactuate alot with pitchers on a year to year basis.

What it does is it puts all pitchers on the same level so it doesnt matter whether you have 4 potential gold glovers in your infield or 4 Dan Uggla's.


Defense will reflect on ERA. It wot reflect on FIP and xFIP. Think of FIP and xFIP as advanced ERA.
It's interesting I'll give it that, but I still prefer ERA because 1) I feel great plays and botched plays by the defense generally even out. 2)Alot of botched plays are errors, which don't go towards ERA anyway and 3)Most importantly, I like to preserve the mystery of baseball. A ball could be stung and caught and a weak grounder could go for a hit. That's what makes the game beautiful. Sabremetrics is good stuff, just not my taste.

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08-02-2011, 02:11 AM
  #752
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Originally Posted by f2d View Post
There's no 1 stat that determines how good a pitcher is.

To say ERA is basically everything is ridiculous.

Take CC for example, if he's got a 10 run lead, he's going to throw a lot more strikes, and strikes closer to the middle of the plate versus nibbling the corners. That's going to result in more hits, and more runs, but that's what a quality pitcher will do, because when you have a huge lead, the last thing you do is walk a guy and start giving them free passes.

Even unearned runs say things about the pitcher. First off, if the pitcher's the one committing the errors, that sure as hell counts against him. An ace has to be good at fielding his position too. If there's a lot of passed balls, even though it's charged to the catcher, it usually has something to do with the pitcher's style as well. A knuckleballer is going to have a lot more passed balls compared to the rest of the pitching staff even with that same catcher. And obviously certain types of balls in play generate more errors then others.

But overall, ERA is a pretty good indicator, but like all stats it has it's flaws
The key word is indicator. The only true flawless way to judge a player is to watch every single game he plays. Since that's not possible, stats serve as the next best thing. But of course, every stat, even advanced Sabremetrics, is just an indicator.

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08-02-2011, 12:30 PM
  #753
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So who do you think will be the Yankees closer after Mariano? Robertson? Soriano? Someone else?

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08-02-2011, 01:13 PM
  #754
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Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
So who do you think will be the Yankees closer after Mariano? Robertson? Soriano? Someone else?
Rivera will pitch till he's 60.

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08-02-2011, 01:29 PM
  #755
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So who do you think will be the Yankees closer after Mariano? Robertson? Soriano? Someone else?
Papelbon.

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08-02-2011, 01:43 PM
  #756
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Papelbon.
I have a feeling he'll stay in Boston.

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08-02-2011, 01:44 PM
  #757
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My first choice right now out of anyone is Robertson. They call him "Houdini" for a reason. The guy just has ice water in his veins. That's what I look for in a closer.

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08-02-2011, 01:50 PM
  #758
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One huge issue with stats in MLB is the fact that the parks are different. Whether it's a hitters or pitchers park is going to affect the players a lot since you play 81 home games. It's actually the only major sport where the playing environment isn't the same depending on location. All NHL rinks are identical in size, so are NFL fields and NBA courts.

One thing about WAR though... does the team actually have to win in order for a player to get +WAR? Like say a pitcher has 25 starts in a season, and the team's 0-25 in those starts, even though the guy has a 2.0 ERA and pitched 9 shutout innings twice. What would his WAR be? He's clearly a good pitcher but he didn't really give the team any wins since a replacement would've gotten blown out 25 times instead of losing close games.

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08-02-2011, 02:06 PM
  #759
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Quote:
Originally Posted by f2d View Post
One huge issue with stats in MLB is the fact that the parks are different. Whether it's a hitters or pitchers park is going to affect the players a lot since you play 81 home games. It's actually the only major sport where the playing environment isn't the same depending on location. All NHL rinks are identical in size, so are NFL fields and NBA courts.

One thing about WAR though... does the team actually have to win in order for a player to get +WAR? Like say a pitcher has 25 starts in a season, and the team's 0-25 in those starts, even though the guy has a 2.0 ERA and pitched 9 shutout innings twice. What would his WAR be? He's clearly a good pitcher but he didn't really give the team any wins since a replacement would've gotten blown out 25 times instead of losing close games.
I assume he gets the WAR, but then you have the offense and fielders getting negative WAR for their inability to help the pitcher.

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08-02-2011, 02:20 PM
  #760
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Quote:
Originally Posted by f2d View Post
One huge issue with stats in MLB is the fact that the parks are different. Whether it's a hitters or pitchers park is going to affect the players a lot since you play 81 home games. It's actually the only major sport where the playing environment isn't the same depending on location. All NHL rinks are identical in size, so are NFL fields and NBA courts.

One thing about WAR though... does the team actually have to win in order for a player to get +WAR? Like say a pitcher has 25 starts in a season, and the team's 0-25 in those starts, even though the guy has a 2.0 ERA and pitched 9 shutout innings twice. What would his WAR be? He's clearly a good pitcher but he didn't really give the team any wins since a replacement would've gotten blown out 25 times instead of losing close games.
But when you look at stats and consider the ballpark, it is easy to see what kind of pitcher or batter you have.

Jarrod Washburn played in a pitcher's park during his time in Seattle, a stadium that is death to right-handed hitters. You can look at his fly ball, ground ball, and line drive rates to see how he'd do in another stadium, like Comerica Park... he was traded to the Tigers a few seasons ago, and did TERRIBLE.

Then you have the batters. You could use plot charts online to determine where their home runs or fly balls land land. If you have a right handed batter who can hit the ball opposite field and has an extreme fly ball rate to left field, he'd be perfect for a place like Yankee Stadium, whereas he might not be fit for a stadium like Petco Park.

Stats can sometimes be misleading, especially when you look at how a guy like Jeff Karstens is pitching in Pittsburgh, his peripherals don't match up with his performance. He is a replacement level pitcher or worse, despite what his stats say. Regardless, you can use heat maps, plot charts and other things to really get a good look at stats that simple numbers don't explain.

To explain your question on WAR, +WAR, and -WAR, I'd suggest you take a look at Fangraphs (http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/), there is a whole glossary section that explains WAR and several other statistics including Park Factor which you asked about earlier in your post (you can find that under 'sabremetric principles').

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Old
08-02-2011, 03:55 PM
  #761
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Quote:
Originally Posted by f2d View Post
One thing about WAR though... does the team actually have to win in order for a player to get +WAR? Like say a pitcher has 25 starts in a season, and the team's 0-25 in those starts, even though the guy has a 2.0 ERA and pitched 9 shutout innings twice. What would his WAR be? He's clearly a good pitcher but he didn't really give the team any wins since a replacement would've gotten blown out 25 times instead of losing close games.

Nope. WAR is a comparison of player's output compared to 'league average'. So for instance if 'league average' for SP is 6 IP/4 ER and the above mentioned pitcher has a line of 7 IP/1 ER, his WAR will go up regardless if the team wins or not.

Fangraphs link that DatsyukSOGoal posted is pretty good. It shows you how to calculate WAR. Not as easy as they say though, I'm just not a maths guy.

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08-02-2011, 10:56 PM
  #762
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Yanks are playing incredible ball. Just hope they can keep it up against the Red Sox.

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Old
08-02-2011, 11:34 PM
  #763
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Got home from work to see the highlights of the Met game. Good God, it's something new every day.

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Old
08-02-2011, 11:36 PM
  #764
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Got home from work to see the highlights of the Met game. Good God, it's something new every day.
I was AT the game.

****ing pathetic.

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08-02-2011, 11:42 PM
  #765
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I'm going tomorrow. 0-2 at Citi Field and 1-2 at Met games this year. Only reason I'm going is because my friend got free tickets and they have club access. It's just hard to go there and watch the same **** over and over.

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Old
08-02-2011, 11:45 PM
  #766
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Just disheartening. Izzy's FIP is catching up to him and he's regressing. Parnell is incredibly inconsistent. Our bullpen really is in shambles right now and the offense nor defense can't get it done consistently.

I resigned myself to the fact I was following a non-competing team, but if we beat these teams we should we're only 3-4 games back on the braves for the wild card instead of 7.

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08-02-2011, 11:48 PM
  #767
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For all the love Justin Turner got early on, it's becoming apparent that he isn't an everyday player.

This team will show you bright spots then come crashing back down to earth. And of course another injured player has a setback today, no shocker for the Mets.

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Old
08-02-2011, 11:59 PM
  #768
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Hughes' start today was very encouraging. Second straight QS for him.

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08-03-2011, 05:39 PM
  #769
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And the never ending A-Rad saga continues

Major League Baseball could suspend New York Yankees star Alex Rodriguez if it confirms he participated on at least two occasions in illegal, underground poker games after being warned not to, ESPNNewYork.com reported Wednesday.

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08-03-2011, 05:56 PM
  #770
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dude can't do anything right

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Old
08-03-2011, 06:00 PM
  #771
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I dont see the big deal....he was playing poker....not betting on baseball.

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08-03-2011, 06:34 PM
  #772
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I dont see the big deal....he was playing poker....not betting on baseball.
This. Normally, I'm against him..this one's just meh.

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08-03-2011, 07:46 PM
  #773
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ESPN
In 2005, Rodriguez had been warned about gambling in underground poker clubs by the Yankees and by baseball commissioner Bud Selig, both of whom were concerned that possible involvement with gamblers who might be betting on baseball games could result in a Pete Rose-type lifetime ban from baseball.
http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/stor...-illegal-poker

To me, the most troubling part is that he was previously warned, and apparently continued the behavior. Honestly, I couldn't care less that he gambles. But you'd think he'd be smart enough to avoid that stuff after being previously warned by the Commissioner and the team.

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Old
08-03-2011, 07:48 PM
  #774
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ZOMG poker!!! Batten down the hatches!!!!

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Old
08-03-2011, 07:51 PM
  #775
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Another 6 runs in two innings. The transformation is complete.


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