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The Myth Behind Jack Johnson and his Plus/Minus

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Old
08-03-2011, 07:46 AM
  #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Reaper45 View Post
Ziggy, 3 plays do not a season make.

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08-03-2011, 09:40 AM
  #52
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Ziggy I know he has the worst luck when it comes to plus and minus. He often is just coming on the ice when the other team scores too. But he isn't all that great in his own zone but he is improving and will become better I hope.

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08-03-2011, 10:13 AM
  #53
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This thread is a shining example of why Ziggy is the best poster here.

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08-03-2011, 10:22 AM
  #54
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Originally Posted by saintsnsoldiers View Post
Who knocked the **** out of Smyth, and early in the last season crushed a sharks player. He does not shy away and will drop them when needed. He is better then mediocre and at times alot of the time last year has been our best Dman. I love his attitude. Met him last year in Vegas took alot of time with me and my family for pics and conversation. Was kinda funny because my mom who is 73 was waring her JJ jersey and told him that his mom would be proud of him for the way he took time for our family. He blushed and said thanked us for our time. Killer attitude. I love that we have him for 7 years at his cap hit. He has a LA sticker on his ass not like some other D we have. Sorry got off track. But JJ is way under rated in this league.
He averages 1 hit per 22:30 of ice time. That's not very physical.

By comparison, Greene, who actually is a physical defenseman, registers 1 hit per every 5 minutes of ice time. Even Martinez hits more often than Johnson does. Alec averages 1 hit per 13 minutes of ice time.

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08-03-2011, 10:28 AM
  #55
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Man, Greene had an awful season.

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08-03-2011, 11:59 AM
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnjm22 View Post
He averages 1 hit per 22:30 of ice time. That's not very physical.

By comparison, Greene, who actually is a physical defenseman, registers 1 hit per every 5 minutes of ice time. Even Martinez hits more often than Johnson does. Alec averages 1 hit per 13 minutes of ice time.
When you're out of position or like others have said purely a reactionary defensemen like Johnson is your stats will suffer and you won't be hitting anything. Lidstrom doesn't hit anybody either but his positional play is so superior he funnels the forward where he wants him to go. The good news with Johnson is he's getting better and nobody knows more than King fans that dmen take time to develop. He's got a great contract, he's money in the shootout (when Terry Murray is not confused enough to use him) and he'll get better in time. Right now he is looking for turnovers and gets caught out of position with regularity. Play defense first and the rest of the stats will come. We can dispense with the kill jack kill and all that other nonsense. Jack was lighting up guys who now play in rec leagues-the skill level in the NHL is a little different than Psych majors who just happen to also play hockey.

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08-03-2011, 12:55 PM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnjm22 View Post
He averages 1 hit per 22:30 of ice time. That's not very physical.

By comparison, Greene, who actually is a physical defenseman, registers 1 hit per every 5 minutes of ice time. Even Martinez hits more often than Johnson does. Alec averages 1 hit per 13 minutes of ice time.
Johnson doesn't make big hits very often. When he is on his game in his own zone he is very good at pinning a puck carrier to the boards and causing a turnover in possession. He is strong on his skates and when he pins an opposing forward to the boards the forward rarely escapes with the puck, which is exactly what you want from a defenseman down low.

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08-03-2011, 03:49 PM
  #58
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While Jack does not get a lot of hits you have to admit he IS a physical defender. The guy is a total ass hole to play against. He'll pin slam his opponent in the boards 5 times a shift. He's so strong that he seperates his opponet just using his off hand. He is a beast in the crease.

We all know he can make the big hit. He started his career doing it. As he became more responsible his defense has picked up. It's no coincidence. He may not be good defensively but he is slowly getting better. Flying around will only give you guys something else to be down on him for.

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08-03-2011, 04:00 PM
  #59
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In regards to last year, he was a + player till half way through the season. Then he was -12 over the next 5 games. The -'s followed him the whole rest of the season and lost of it had to do with poor play on both ends of the ice. I don't know what caused that but the first half of the season he was fantastic offensively and above average defensively. We know he has the ability but unfortunately at this stage of his developement he takes a lot of coddling and maneuvering. We know Jack is as motivated as anyone in hockey and Murray has tryed everything to have him reach his potential. Now we just have to sit back and allow him to develop.

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08-03-2011, 04:01 PM
  #60
Ziggy Stardust
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Anyone remember this play by JJ?


And this quick exhibition of his puck skills and skating.


The kid still has loads of potential and continues to develop his all-around game.

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08-03-2011, 04:11 PM
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08-03-2011, 04:16 PM
  #62
Ziggy Stardust
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Ah yes, Jack Johnson's NHL debut. Didn't he also get into two fights the next game? He also was trying to go at it with Matt Cooke in that Vancouver game. I recall Marc Crawford's comments at the time Johnson came in. He didn't want to provide Jack with much instruction and just let him loose. Who knows how much Crawford's coaching set Jack back (coupled with the shoulder injury), but he's gotten miles better since Terry Murray (along with Mark Hardy) got a hold of him.


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08-03-2011, 04:38 PM
  #63
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In regards to last year, he was a + player till half way through the season. Then he was -12 over the next 5 games. The -'s followed him the whole rest of the season and lost of it had to do with poor play on both ends of the ice. I don't know what caused that but the first half of the season he was fantastic offensively and above average defensively.
I would say that he was collecting those minuses quite steadily throughout the whole season and he was never above average defensively. He just looked like that because Doughty's defensive play was so bad at the beginning of the season. The reason why his total +/- wasn't dropping fast is simple: he was collecting too many pluses. Once his offensive output dropped, there was nothing left to camouflage the army of minuses taking over the fort.

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08-03-2011, 04:49 PM
  #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nex06 View Post
I would say that he was collecting those minuses quite steadily throughout the whole season and he was never above average defensively. He just looked like that because Doughty's defensive play was so bad at the beginning of the season. The reason why his total +/- wasn't dropping fast is simple: he was collecting too many pluses. Once his offensive output dropped, there was nothing left to camouflage the army of minuses taking over the fort.
There are two particular stretches of streaks where Jack Johnson's plus/minus took a huge hit and this was during the time when the Kings were playing terribly and went through some losing streaks.

From November 15 through November 29, the Kings went 1-7-0, with Jack accumulating a plus/minus rating of -12 in those 8 games (and their lone win came in a shootout). In the 12 games following that stretch, Johnson was a minus in only two games and was a +8 in that span.

In games in which Jack Johnson was a plus or even player, the Kings record was 36-12. The Kings' record when Jack was a minus player was 10-24. I think this indicates just how much of a team stat the plus/minus category really is.

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08-03-2011, 04:59 PM
  #65
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The only myth here is that Johnson is simply a victim of circumstance.

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08-03-2011, 05:14 PM
  #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nex06 View Post
I would say that he was collecting those minuses quite steadily throughout the whole season and he was never above average defensively. He just looked like that because Doughty's defensive play was so bad at the beginning of the season. The reason why his total +/- wasn't dropping fast is simple: he was collecting too many pluses. Once his offensive output dropped, there was nothing left to camouflage the army of minuses taking over the fort.
That is a baffling argument that is based off a contridiction. So which part of your own argument do you believe because they argue against eachother?

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08-03-2011, 05:21 PM
  #67
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Originally Posted by Ziggy Stardust View Post
From November 15 through November 29, the Kings went 1-7-0, with Jack accumulating a plus/minus rating of -12 in those 8 games (and their lone win came in a shootout). In the 12 games following that stretch, Johnson was a minus in only two games and was a +8 in that span.

In games in which Jack Johnson was a plus or even player, the Kings record was 36-12. The Kings' record when Jack was a minus player was 10-24. I think this indicates just how much of a team stat the plus/minus category really is.
True, but in that same 1-7-0 stretch two other big TOI leaders Kopitar and Doughty had -5 and +1 respectively. Considering that their expected +/- (extracted from average) would be +2.6 and +1.3 it does show that +/- depends on team result a lot - but still personal play does have a small effect. The problem that I see is only, that people see Johnson's -21 and Doughty's +13 and conclude that Johnson was so much worse. Johnson definitely had some bad luck in that regard, however Doughty having much better +/- was not a fluke, he deserved it.

It will be interesting to see this stat in the new season, I can't see Johnson having THAT kind of +/- and I do hope it will be positive. It would make a nice poll actually, I would vote for +5. Jack Johnson is not this team's problem. He signed a fair contract, cares for the team, plays hard and hates losing. Regarding his on ice behavior, there are other players that are less careful, less disciplined, but nobody holds them responsible, because they are not defensemen. Too many times I just wanted to jump through my screen and beat the hell out of Simmonds or Stoll for stupid penalties they did.

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That is a baffling argument that is based off a contridiction. So which part of your own argument do you believe because they argue against eachother?
No, there is no contradiction.

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Old
08-03-2011, 05:22 PM
  #68
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Things like +/- tend to even themselves out. I am sure there were many times when things worked IN his favour - coming over the boards when a goal was scored.

Besides, he has ALWAYS been a minus player so... it isn't just this year.

**

PuckDaddy ranked the Top 25 defensemen...


Mr Doughty was # 5 which seems fair.

ERIC Johnson was # 10 which baffles the mind.

Jack Johnson was NOT on the list.

I would put JJ in the Top 25 and drop Eric like a hot rock.


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Old
08-03-2011, 06:08 PM
  #69
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EJ should get incomplete grades, he's lost development time to injury and been shuffled around. He still has more potential than Jack IMO.

Jack's plus minus suffered from a couple of cold streaks in that column so the numbers are a bit deceptive but there is no sugarcoating the numbers over time.

Reading through the posts and videos here reminds me of talking to Roberto Luongo after the 8-goals-allowed game in Boston.

We were talking about the Boston power play waking up and he said, well, the first puck went in off our guy's stick and the second goal was a fluky play in the waning moments (paraphrasing here). He then launched into an explanation of all eight goals. On one hand, he was mostly right, the eight goals against made it sound like he got out-and-out blown up when he didn't (he actually played worse in game 6, I'd argue).

You can seek reasons to absolve a guy but the results are the bottom line and when the results keep recurring over time, there's something that has to change. This is three straight years on a competitive where Jack has been well into the red.

To me, it's a total thing with Johnson. He's got to simplify his game at both ends. Fewer big slappers that miss the net ten feet wide and start rushes the other way, more little wristers that create havoc in front. Fewer head fakes and less hesitation, more quick, easy puck movement.

A big thing is that he was so far ahead of the other guys he was playing against until he reached the NHL. Most guys he played in high school and college had never dealt with a puck-carrying DMan his caliber and couldn't skate with him. That isn't true in the NHL, not even close. He is definitely above average even for a pro though so modest successes stopped him from making any big overhauls.

But now he's settled in, he's been a pro for a while, his contract situation is settled and he should be able to see where he has to pare down his effort a little and sharpen his focus at the same time. He's a competitive guy with a lot of confidence and he's got plenty of talent so if those things happen it should all fall in line for him.

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08-03-2011, 06:40 PM
  #70
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He's got to simplify his game at both ends. Fewer big slappers that miss the net ten feet wide and start rushes the other way, more little wristers that create havoc in front. Fewer head fakes and less hesitation, more quick, easy puck movement.
I would say maybe simplifying defensive game is more important. Both slapshots and wristers proved to be good weapon in offense, he proved to be one of the best in the team when it came to delivering puck in dangerous zone in front of the net. I remember that quite a few of the "missed" slapshots rebounded behind the goalie and ended in the goal. I remember that one of those happened just couple of games after Terry Murray talked about such situations (that even missed shots can still get rebounded to a stick in front of the net) and in my mind there is no doubt that much of Johnson's offensive play was a consequence of coaching staff instructions.

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08-03-2011, 07:15 PM
  #71
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No, there is no contradiction.
Your reasoning can be used on the other side of the debate just as well or better than your side.

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08-03-2011, 07:50 PM
  #72
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I thought Johnson was a bust after his first few seasons even though he played 5 games, then 72 games and then 41 because of injury BUT then the last two years he has really emerged and has 12 points in 12 total playoff games. He was a stud in the shoot outs and threw the occasional big hit. Not as many or as hard as he threw in junior, but the dude has really emerged the past 2 seasons and under Terry Murray and John Stevens I only see him improving. Chelios, Pronger all took a few seasons to get it together. He is built too, I remember him doing all that training to get his body into pro size and you can tell by his neck dude is built. Judging by how he does in the shoot outs, it's obvious he has world class skills.

The other big thing with Johnson as mentioned in the earlier NHL tonight youtube clip is how he did when Doughty got hurt...that was like when Crosby went down and Malkin showed how good he could be. Sometimes the #2 is overshadowed by the #1.


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08-03-2011, 09:20 PM
  #73
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He was a stud in the shoot outs...
Don't you find JJ goes low stick side 60+% of the time in shoot outs ?

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08-04-2011, 02:57 AM
  #74
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Originally Posted by Ziggy Stardust View Post
Watch the clips and see for yourself. His defensive play is being made out to be atrocious by some posters on these forums when I'm providing visual evidence to prove that those claims are far overblown and an exaggeration of his play.
I agree that the claims are far overblown. i never really notice him being lost in our own end. but he does make bad decisions for example instead of parading up the ice with the puck and trying to force things, 9 times out of 10 its better/wiser to make a nice outlet pass to the forwards to jump start the rush, and who knows, maybe that leads to a goal which would obviously improve his +/-. i agree that he is unlucky, and -21 isnt entirley indicative of his play. that being said i think he needs to be more consistent at getting his shots through as well as improving his 5-5 play. he will improve this year, as he does every year. he is too talented to give up on. i have complete faith that he will clean up his game where he needs to and become a great dman for us for many years to come.

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08-04-2011, 10:19 AM
  #75
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Don't you find JJ goes low stick side 60+% of the time in shoot outs ?
That's the easiest place to score-unless you're Stoll.

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