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Jagr expectations?

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Old
08-03-2011, 12:23 PM
  #226
livewell68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
I got owned? That post was pure drivel. He posted pictures and blathered about how he's in great shape (as if late 30s folks that work out don't routinely look good, pro athlete or not). If you think I got owned by that post you have a lower bar than I think you do. Then he started talking about completely different sports as if they matter. I mean, my god, gimme a break. I guess I'll get ready for a 95 pt season because Randy Johnson pitched well at 40.

Keep fighting the snarky smart ass routine and sounding like an idiot, though.
You only bring up Randy Johnson yet I brought up more than Johnson among the 40 year old athletes who were elite among their peers.

What about John Stockton, Randy Couture, Michael Jordan, Jabbar, George Forman, Warner, Favre even Rice who all excelled even at age 40?

I guess those sports don't matter eh?

Randy Johnson didn't just pitch well, he was the league's best pitcher at age 40.

You however are entitled to your opinion and no arguments will convince you otherwise.

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08-03-2011, 12:24 PM
  #227
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Originally Posted by jags6868 View Post
It's ok, my well thought arguments are wrong and his biased opinions are right.

There is no way he'll score over PPG.
You honestly think pitchers are comparable to hockey players? Like, at all?



And what is the "bias" in my opinion? That I'm not, to use your characterization of yourself, "obsessed" with Jagr?

You are Wolfy 2.0. Every f'ing year we have to get one. At least Jagr is good.

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08-03-2011, 12:47 PM
  #228
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Originally Posted by jags6868 View Post
You only bring up Randy Johnson yet I brought up more than Johnson among the 40 year old athletes who were elite among their peers.

What about John Stockton, Randy Couture, Michael Jordan, Jabbar, George Forman, Warner, Favre even Rice who all excelled even at age 40?

I guess those sports don't matter eh?

Randy Johnson didn't just pitch well, he was the league's best pitcher at age 40.

You however are entitled to your opinion and no arguments will convince you otherwise.
Why don't we talk about professional golfers while we're at it?

Even if players from OTHER sports were all that useful for comparing to HOCKEY PLAYERS, you still have the problem that your argument is based around the exceptions not the rules. Above you acted like Selanne is not an outlier. That is, literally, one of the dumbest things I've ever read on this site. So, no, your argument isn't going to convince me otherwise: because it's stupid. In the past 35 seasons, Selanne is the only player to register a PPG season at age 40. So, your argument that we are seeing it with some regularity and therefore it can be applied as an expectation for other players gets laughed out of the room by anyone with an ounce of objectivity.

Jagr, however, will be 39... not 40. So, lets look at 39 y/o players. No 39 y.o player has registered a PPG season in the NHL since '79-80 (and that includes Selanne). Adam Oates was the closest to pulling it off almost 10 years ago. Again, where is this rush of players taking advantage of modern training practices that are producing at that level well into their late 30s and early 40s?

It is CERTAINLY possible that Jagr could have a monster year, but that should not be the expectation. His point production will probably come in around 70 pts (again, that's what the objective stat analysis between the NHL and KHL suggests) and a reasonable range can be built in the 60-80 area. If he hits PPG pace then that's a pretty remarkable season for a guy his age, but he will be exceeding non-fanboy expectations if he pulls that off.

BTW, lets go through your athletes.

Stockton - retired at 40, and his numbers across the board were well below his career averages.
Jordan - retired at 39, and his numbers across the board were well below his career averages.
Couture - are you seriously comparing martial arts to a sport like hockey?
Jabbar - retired at 42, and his numbers began to fall in his early 30s.
Foreman - Are you seriously comparing boxing to playing hockey?
Warner - Are you seriously comparing playing QB to playing hockey?
Favre - See above.
Rice - Only guy who was a legit stud at this age, that is in any way comparable to playing hockey...

Here's some more food for thought. Jagr's final season was at age 35, which is before elite guys really begin to hit the wall. 20 players in the history of the NHL have hit PPG pace at that age (Jagr not one of them), and a slew more of 'em were close. 17 players have done it at 36 (without tossing out low game totals), with a slew more after that close. 8 have done it at 37. 1 player has done it at 38. As noted, only 4 have done it at 39 and none in the last 20 years.

If Jagr does it, it is a remarkable season for a player his age and should be recognized as such... not a season of him meeting absurd expectations out of line with reality.

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08-03-2011, 01:48 PM
  #229
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
I got owned? That post was pure drivel. He posted pictures and blathered about how he's in great shape (as if late 30s folks that work out don't routinely look good, pro athlete or not). If you think I got owned by that post you have a lower bar than I think you do. Then he started talking about completely different sports as if they matter. I mean, my god, gimme a break. I guess I'll get ready for a 95 pt season because Randy Johnson pitched well at 40.

Keep fighting the snarky smart ass routine and sounding like an idiot, though.
I'm not smart enough to make the snarky smart ass routine as you say. You are so tighly wound up lol

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08-03-2011, 02:54 PM
  #230
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Why don't we talk about professional golfers while we're at it?

Even if players from OTHER sports were all that useful for comparing to HOCKEY PLAYERS, you still have the problem that your argument is based around the exceptions not the rules. Above you acted like Selanne is not an outlier. That is, literally, one of the dumbest things I've ever read on this site. So, no, your argument isn't going to convince me otherwise: because it's stupid. In the past 35 seasons, Selanne is the only player to register a PPG season at age 40. So, your argument that we are seeing it with some regularity and therefore it can be applied as an expectation for other players gets laughed out of the room by anyone with an ounce of objectivity.

Jagr, however, will be 39... not 40. So, lets look at 39 y/o players. No 39 y.o player has registered a PPG season in the NHL since '79-80 (and that includes Selanne). Adam Oates was the closest to pulling it off almost 10 years ago. Again, where is this rush of players taking advantage of modern training practices that are producing at that level well into their late 30s and early 40s?

It is CERTAINLY possible that Jagr could have a monster year, but that should not be the expectation. His point production will probably come in around 70 pts (again, that's what the objective stat analysis between the NHL and KHL suggests) and a reasonable range can be built in the 60-80 area. If he hits PPG pace then that's a pretty remarkable season for a guy his age, but he will be exceeding non-fanboy expectations if he pulls that off.

BTW, lets go through your athletes.

Stockton - retired at 40, and his numbers across the board were well below his career averages.
Jordan - retired at 39, and his numbers across the board were well below his career averages.
Couture - are you seriously comparing martial arts to a sport like hockey?
Jabbar - retired at 42, and his numbers began to fall in his early 30s.
Foreman - Are you seriously comparing boxing to playing hockey?
Warner - Are you seriously comparing playing QB to playing hockey?
Favre - See above.
Rice - Only guy who was a legit stud at this age, that is in any way comparable to playing hockey...

Here's some more food for thought. Jagr's final season was at age 35, which is before elite guys really begin to hit the wall. 20 players in the history of the NHL have hit PPG pace at that age (Jagr not one of them), and a slew more of 'em were close. 17 players have done it at 36 (without tossing out low game totals), with a slew more after that close. 8 have done it at 37. 1 player has done it at 38. As noted, only 4 have done it at 39 and none in the last 20 years.

If Jagr does it, it is a remarkable season for a player his age and should be recognized as such... not a season of him meeting absurd expectations out of line with reality.
I never made a claim that there are many 40 year old players who are being dominant. I'm saying there are more 40 year old players playing in the NHL now who are continuing to put great numbers.
You can't compare Recchi or Brind'amour though to Jagr. Those guys are going to the Hall of Fame but they never won 5 Art Ross trophies or were ever considered the best players in the world like Jagr. Take out Messier and Howe and you would see that players' careers have continued to prolong compared to past generations. The life expectancy of an NHL career would have been 10-15 years in the 40's, 50's, 60's and 70's. Now it's not impossible to see players play 15-20 years. That is due to the advancement in technology, training, medicine and dieting. Jagr benefits from this just as much as any other player in the NHL right now. Even at age 39, Jagr's pure talent is better than 90% of the league. If he then trains as hard as he has been, it gives me no reason to think he won't be among the 10% best of the league.

Most players who are 40 who retire have had a lot of wear and tear on them, especially in the last 3-4 years of their careers. Take Sakic for example, the guy had 100 Pts at age 37. He most likely would have continued to put up PPG until he was 40 but then a freak accident ended his attempts to continue his career. Jagr has not had that much wear and tear in the last 3 years at all, shorter season, shorter playoffs and far less grind. His body as mentioned before, is closer to the body of a 35-36 year old than 39-40 year old. Jagr himself even at ages 35-36 was pretty darn good. Players like Sakic, Lemieux, Gretzky... would have most likely scored PPG in their 40's if not for their health issues. Jagr is closer to them in terms of all-time standing. What health issues does Jagr have? The only thing I see getting in the way of Jagr scoring at a PPG clip are injuries or some sort of freak accident, but for all that Jagr has been durable in his career.

Jagr was 36 in his last season, at 35 he scored 96 Pts (good for 8th) with a reconstructed shoulder.

You keep thinking hockey is by far the toughest sport to play and nothing compares. I say MMA is just as tough as hockey. You scoff at QB's in the NFL. Playing QB is pretty darn tough, ever thought that that's why the NFL season is so short in terms of games played? It's a tough sport and the preparation and training they put in is tough, just as tough as hockey.

You scoff at boxing, I can guarantee you that boxing is the toughest sport to play. I used to box myself and believe me training for a 12 round fight takes more preparation than playing an entire NHL season.

NHL players are not some type of superhuman athletes. Yes they are tough and sometimes have to cross train, but regardless it's a sport that can be compared to any other sport.

You showed me David Wells, for every David Wells in the MLB, there is a Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson.

You find far fewer overweight baseball players now than you did even 10-15 years ago.

You can downplay every older player's accomplishments just to try and prove your biased view. Stockton and Jabbar might have not been as good as they were in their 20's and 30's when they got older but they were still putting up elite numbers.

No one here including me is claiming Jagr will score 120 Pts (last time I checked that was his prime when healthy). Claiming he will be PPG is considered remarkable in other players' standards but not Jagr's. If he only gets about 80 Pts, PPG that would make it Jagr's 12 best PPG season of his career. Far below his younger days' standards but yet considered quite good. So it is possible for a player to be elite, even among the league's best but still be below his prime standards. All it means is that players like Jagr, Gretzky, Lemieux, Jordan, Couture... are measured to different standards than the rest.

If I were to say he was going to play the exact same way he did when he was younger, I would have predicted 40-55 goals and 100-125 Pts, I'm not predicting that though. Heck even Selanne who scored 80 Pts in 73 games at age 40 was nowhere the standards he was being measured up to in the late 90's.

You're claiming Jordan's numbers were lower than career average all across the board at age 39, well of course they were, no one was expecting him to score 30 Pts a game and win the MVP award. He was however still very respectable and averaged more 20 Pts a game.

Same scenario here, expecting Jagr to score 30-35 goals and to get about 80-95 Pts would be below his career averages.

Last time I checked Jagr has averaged over 100 Pts a season and 41 goals in his career. You do the math. He would be getting closer to his career numbers, but he wouldn't exceed them. Those averages would have also been much higher had it not been for his tenure in Washington. So to expect a player who averaged 97 Pts in his last 3 years in the NHL to score PPG is not as far fetched as you claim it is.

BTW go look at Jagr play in the 2007-08 playoffs. You tell me if that looked like a player who was regressing. To the contrary, some will claim that that playoff Jagr played some of the best hockey of his career. He was however 36, was a bit overweight, slow, gassed out, tired and had been playing with a rookie centerman named Dubinsky because no one else on that team could keep up with Jagr. You completely underrate things like experience, hockey IQ, vision, playmaking, shooting and size and strength. Even if he was slow, Jagr still has all the other tools.

Yes he's 3 years older now, but he's healthier, more fresh, motivated, and much more fit and quicker than he was in 2007-08.

Apparently though Jagr being in shape and being faster means nothing to you, because apparently the NHL has evolved light years in just the span of 3 years.

In 2007-08 NHL players looked like little midget turtles on ice while now suddenly hockey players are looking like Usain Bolts on steroids. Poor Jagr, he has no idea what he's getting himself into, he's 50, he's fat, he's lost muscle, he needs to walk with crutches and his mind for the game, his hands and his passing and shooting skills have abandoned him. Boy is he in for a rude awakening.


Last edited by livewell68: 08-03-2011 at 03:55 PM.
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08-03-2011, 05:28 PM
  #231
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A list of every player who came close to a PPG (.7) in their 38th - Final Year in the modern era: 1991-Present

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...oints_per_game

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08-03-2011, 05:35 PM
  #232
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Originally Posted by Flyerfan808 View Post
A list of every player who came close to a PPG (.7) in their 38th - Final Year in the modern era: 1991-Present

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...oints_per_game
That's a list of 30 times. Of those players, only Sakic, Lemieux, Selanne, Lidstrom, Messier, Hull and Gretzky are even at the same level as Jagr.

This shows that great players despite their age can continue to rack up the points.

Don't forget though, 38 is not 39 and Jagr at 39 is too old to score PPG.

It appears the unstoppable Oates who's career is a hundred times better than Jagr's got 0.98 PPG at age 39 and 1.01 PPG at age 38. It's ok though, Oates is better than Jagr so Jagr can't be expected to do something similar.

What I've been trying to say is that usually playmakers tend to continue to rack up the points even as they age. Jagr is a playmaker first and foremost and he's a darn good one at that.

Interesting to see that at age 39 it was MacInnis who had the best PPG average among defensemen and not Lidstrom.

This shows me that's it's not only Lidstrom and Selanne who have been elite at ages 39-40.

In that list I see 7 players who have had 0.90 PPG or better at ages 38, 39 or 40. Jagr is better than all those players on the list except for Lemieux.

If someone like Oates or Francis or Hull can get more than 75 Pts then I see no reason why Jagr can't do it. Of the top 8 interestingly enough, only Hull is a pure goal scorer. This shows you that players that are great playmakers can be expected to still pot over 50 assists as older players.

With Jagr though he still has the ability to score 30 + goals to go along with those 50 + assists.


Last edited by livewell68: 08-03-2011 at 05:44 PM.
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08-03-2011, 05:36 PM
  #233
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Jags6868, I think you've made your case and I think we all understand where you're coming from. Let's let the season play out and see how it all unfolds. Anything can happen.

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08-03-2011, 06:38 PM
  #234
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-Jaromir Jagr


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08-03-2011, 06:38 PM
  #235
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-Jaromir Jagr

Did he really ****ing say that?

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08-03-2011, 06:49 PM
  #236
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Did he really ****ing say that?
Apparently, yes. It was quoted on CrossingBroad

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08-03-2011, 07:04 PM
  #237
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Originally Posted by jags6868 View Post
That's a list of 30 times. Of those players, only Sakic, Lemieux, Selanne, Lidstrom, Messier, Hull and Gretzky are even at the same level as Jagr.

This shows that very few players despite their age can continue to rack up the points.

Don't forget though, 38 is not 39 and Jagr at 39 is too old to score PPG.

It appears the unstoppable Oates who's career is a hundred times better than Jagr's got 0.98 PPG at age 39 and 1.01 PPG at age 38. It's ok though, Oates is better than Jagr so Jagr can't be expected to do something similar.

What I've been trying to say is that usually playmakers tend to continue to rack up the points even as they age. Jagr is a playmaker first and foremost and he's a darn good one at that.

Interesting to see that at age 39 it was MacInnis who had the best PPG average among defensemen and not Lidstrom.

This shows me that's it's not only Lidstrom and Selanne who have been elite at ages 39-40.

In that list I see 7 players who have had 0.90 PPG or better at ages 38, 39 or 40. Jagr is better than all those players on the list except for Lemieux.

If someone like Oates or Francis or Hull can get more than 75 Pts then I see no reason why Jagr can't do it. Of the top 8 interestingly enough, only Hull is a pure goal scorer. This shows you that players that are great playmakers can be expected to still pot over 50 assists as older players.

With Jagr though he still has the ability to score 30 + goals to go along with those 50 + assists.
I think we both agree that Jagr has the potential be on this list; except you believe he will be at the very top (PPG+) and I believe that he will be somewhere in the middle (.7 ppg and .8ppg), which one of these sounds like a more reasonable estimate?

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08-03-2011, 07:11 PM
  #238
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This is still going on?

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08-03-2011, 08:18 PM
  #239
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08-03-2011, 08:20 PM
  #240
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Gotta love his attitude .

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08-04-2011, 01:27 AM
  #241
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This is still going on?
If I'm reading this correctly, this thread is:

"Jagr should be pretty good."

"No! Jagr will be very good!"

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08-04-2011, 04:01 AM
  #242
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It's the offseason. People are finding the smallest things to fight about.

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08-04-2011, 06:07 AM
  #243
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It's the offseason. People are finding the smallest things to fight about.
Exactly what are you implying? HUH!!!?

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08-04-2011, 06:22 AM
  #244
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I don't like your tone of voice. After-effects from partying too hard?

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08-04-2011, 10:18 AM
  #245
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This argument is blowing my mind. Sometimes I think of this board as an anthropology project. It is mind-bottling (yes, bottling), how people can "structure" their arguments in so many different ways. More often than not, I tend to agree with one side, and I find the other side is failing to understand that point that is being made. So the argument just goes on, and on, and on...

That and I love how when debating a hit or something, 2 different fanbases literally see 2 different outcomes of the same thing. "See! Clear elbow!"..."what are you talking about? It clearly never even touches him".

Oh people...

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08-04-2011, 10:52 AM
  #246
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Just to be clear, using Jordan as a baseline (since hockey and basketball are very similar sports), I take it we can assume that Jagr will lose about a third of his career average production.

Jagr's career average is 1.26 PPG. A third of that is .42 PPG. So, 0.84 PPG. A 68.88 point season.

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08-04-2011, 10:55 AM
  #247
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Just to be clear, using Jordan as a baseline (since hockey and basketball are very similar sports), I take it we can assume that Jagr will lose about a third of his career average production.

Jagr's career average is 1.26 PPG. A third of that is .42 PPG. So, 0.84 PPG. A 68.88 point season.
I'll take that.

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08-04-2011, 11:01 AM
  #248
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I'll take that.
Yep, 70 pts would be great. Anything beyond that would be gravy.

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08-04-2011, 11:02 AM
  #249
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Yep, 70 pts would be great. Anything beyond that would be gravy.
I still do think 70 is pushing it, but even if he were to pull 50 or 60+ out of his ass, his cap hit to points ratio would probably still be better than Leino's .

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08-04-2011, 11:25 AM
  #250
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All I know is, as much as I hate that both he and Talbot are Flyers, the first game in Pittsburgh will be must see tv.

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