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What do you guys think about the Sabres?

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Old
08-05-2011, 01:26 PM
  #76
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Originally Posted by SabresFan44 View Post
As a Sabres fan just wondering if you Habs fans think it's going to be a Habs-Bruins division rivalry this year as I don't believe that at all
Every year til the end of hockey, this rivalry will exist. It just doesn't change.

Your team looks pretty damn good on paper. The key will be chemistry. I think 4 NE teams will make the playoffs.

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08-05-2011, 01:28 PM
  #77
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It's just this simple.

Montreal WILL NOT finish ahead of Buffalo this year.

I guarantee it.

Sure luck and bounces can come into play but you Habs fans still failed to answer WHY WE will struggle up front.


Last edited by SabresFan44: 08-05-2011 at 01:33 PM.
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08-05-2011, 01:29 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by SabresFan44 View Post
Because how does a team without that offense finish third, and now they have the offense but will "Strugglr up front" You never said why.

Give a legit reason.
I never said that ..look who you quoted..it's not me. Sabres are a good team no doubt, will be a tight race for sure in the NE.

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08-05-2011, 01:30 PM
  #79
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I'm not really anymore sold on Buffalo than I was last year, they'll likely finish 7 or 8th in the conference, they're probably a playoff team, but not much beyond that imho.

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08-05-2011, 01:32 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by SabresFan44 View Post
It's just this simple.

Montreal WILL NOT finish ahead of Buffaki rgus year.

I guarantee it.
Even if you think Buffalo is the strong team, which I disagree with but whatever, they are certainly close enough that the shear randomness of hockey and the many forms of luck, beit injuries, good and bad years on shooting percentage, who gets more breaks in close games and who gets penalized more or less is enough to cloud the issue that saying one will absolutely going finish above the other is completely ludicrous.

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08-05-2011, 01:34 PM
  #81
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Originally Posted by SabresFan44 View Post
It's just this simple.

Montreal WILL NOT finish ahead of Buffaki rgus year.

I guarantee it.
Guess the NHL had a Japanese expansion when I wasn't looking.

Finally, a venue for Taru Tsujimoto.

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08-05-2011, 01:35 PM
  #82
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Do we still play division rivals 8 times?


And lol, i'm a bit tired. (@ last post)

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08-05-2011, 01:35 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by SabresFan44 View Post
It's just this simple.

Montreal WILL NOT finish ahead of Buffaklo this year.

I guarantee it.

Sure luck and bounces can come into play but you Habs fans still failed to answer WHY WE will struggle up front.
Hard to finish ahead of Buffaklo tbh

We'll see. I think Buffalo will struggle a bit in the beginning and finish strong. Habs will rank higher than the Sabres.

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08-05-2011, 01:36 PM
  #84
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Do we still play division rivals 8 times?


And lol, i'm a bit tired. (@ last post)
6 times for division rivals.

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08-05-2011, 01:37 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Yes, really. I think the guys they picked up Erhoff is not a tough minutes guy, and Leino, well, I indicated what I thought above. He was my pick for 'UFA most likely to disappoint'. Regehr is certainly the biggest difference-maker in their upgrades.

Everyone has young players likely to improve and old players likely to decline. I think this balances out for all three clubs being examined.

I probably understimated their upgrades, and fell into the trap of judging them by their contracts a bit, but I don't think they are going to make as much difference as it's fashionable to say it will. I look at the final rosters of the club and I don't see that Buffalo is better than Montreal, or Boston.
Erhoff, as another poster pointed out before, took the bulk of the Canucks offensive zone starts... which he'll probably continue to do with the Sabres, who have Myers/Regher to handle the defensive zone starts...

while I understand your point about Leino's "soft minutes" with the Flyers compared to the Sabres, i think you're overstating that point.

consider Briere for a second... his best season, by far, came as the #1 centre for the Sabres, where as dangerous as they were through 3 lines, he was still likely to face the opposition's top d and defensive forwards...
he moves to philly where, like Leino, he gets "sheltered" by the depth of quality fwds they have, and his numbers actually declined.

toughness of opposition is something to be considered, but far more telling is chemistry (both with linemates and coach/system) and roster balance, and those, imo, will be a far greater determinant to Leino's success (along with health) than wether or not he ends up drawing the oppositions best on a nightly basis.

also, Leino was largely brought in to repalce Connolly, and I'd argue that Leino is far better equipped to help his team -overall- than Connolly who is primarily a point producer and whose overall game isn't nearly as developped as Leino.

on paper, i think all three teams measure up pretty closely, but of course games/seasons/cups are NEVER won on paper, or according to any set of stats (except game winning goals & wins I suppose... 16 in a playoffs being the only 100% predictors of success).

on paper, we should never have seen a sub-40pt season from gomez, but once the puck drops the papers go out the window.

buffalo's moves this offseason, to my estimation, seem to be almost perfect fits to their needs, not unlike Cole's addition for us. remains to be seen which of the three teams stay healthy and build the best chemistry in order to give themselves the best chance at success.
Bruins are proven... habs and sabres will be looking to prove it, when I look "on paper", I see better odds at the sabres navigating to a top-4 spot (based on better depth and better roster balance) as compared to the habs.

either way, interested to see how it plays out.

edit* would seem Vegas bookline disagrees with me, putting the habs @ 20/1 compared to 30/1 for the Sabres (and 10/1 for the bruins)

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08-05-2011, 01:38 PM
  #86
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Originally Posted by Habsolument90 View Post
Every year til the end of hockey, this rivalry will exist. It just doesn't change.

Your team looks pretty damn good on paper. The key will be chemistry. I think 4 NE teams will make the playoffs.
Ottawa is a bottom feeder and Toronto doesn't have the offense to compensate for how defensively inept they are as a team. I'd be very suprised if one of the NE's minnows makes the playoffs.

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08-05-2011, 01:52 PM
  #87
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Originally Posted by SabresFan44 View Post
It's just this simple.

Montreal WILL NOT finish ahead of Buffalo this year.

I guarantee it.

Sure luck and bounces can come into play but you Habs fans still failed to answer WHY WE will struggle up front.
Yes they will. Montreal finished higher last year and added better pieces than Buffalo did in the off-season.

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08-05-2011, 01:58 PM
  #88
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Erhoff, as another poster pointed out before, took the bulk of the Canucks offensive zone starts... which he'll probably continue to do with the Sabres, who have Myers/Regher to handle the defensive zone starts...

while I understand your point about Leino's "soft minutes" with the Flyers compared to the Sabres, i think you're overstating that point.

consider Briere for a second... his best season, by far, came as the #1 centre for the Sabres, where as dangerous as they were through 3 lines, he was still likely to face the opposition's top d and defensive forwards...
he moves to philly where, like Leino, he gets "sheltered" by the depth of quality fwds they have, and his numbers actually declined.

toughness of opposition is something to be considered, but far more telling is chemistry (both with linemates and coach/system) and roster balance, and those, imo, will be a far greater determinant to Leino's success (along with health) than wether or not he ends up drawing the oppositions best on a nightly basis.

also, Leino was largely brought in to repalce Connolly, and I'd argue that Leino is far better equipped to help his team -overall- than Connolly who is primarily a point producer and whose overall game isn't nearly as developped as Leino.

on paper, i think all three teams measure up pretty closely, but of course games/seasons/cups are NEVER won on paper, or according to any set of stats (except game winning goals & wins I suppose... 16 in a playoffs being the only 100% predictors of success).

on paper, we should never have seen a sub-40pt season from gomez, but once the puck drops the papers go out the window.

buffalo's moves this offseason, to my estimation, seem to be almost perfect fits to their needs, not unlike Cole's addition for us. remains to be seen which of the three teams stay healthy and build the best chemistry in order to give themselves the best chance at success.
Bruins are proven... habs and sabres will be looking to prove it, when I look "on paper", I see better odds at the sabres navigating to a top-4 spot (based on better depth and better roster balance) as compared to the habs.

either way, interested to see how it plays out.

edit* would seem Vegas bookline disagrees with me, putting the habs @ 20/1 compared to 30/1 for the Sabres (and 10/1 for the bruins)
Briere was having a career season on team with a very strong group of offensive players team than was colllectively having a massive amount of puck luck (team shooting was an absurd 12.3%). Briere's offensive totals were going to go down after that pretty much regardless. The 2007-08 Flyers couldn't possibly compete with the 2006-07 Sabres as an enviroment to rack up points.

Leino having a good year while sheltered also wouldn't nearly be as big a concern if he also was 27 years old with only one good season. He was nothing special in the AHL and couldn't manage to do much of anything in Detriot. Even in Finland he only had one significantly good year. He's too old to consider significant improvement at all likely. I cut him a lot more slack if he had shown the ability to get things done outside of extremely favourable circumstances, especially when he needed a lot of puck luck to not be a minus player in those circumstances. He's a bit of the anti-Bogosian where all his good qualities were obvious because of a massively favourable situation. His warts will probably be exposed in the light of real responsiblilties.

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08-05-2011, 02:18 PM
  #89
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Originally Posted by SabresFan44 View Post
It's just this simple.

Montreal WILL NOT finish ahead of Buffalo this year.

I guarantee it.

Sure luck and bounces can come into play but you Habs fans still failed to answer WHY WE will struggle up front.
Why would we need to believe Buffalo will struggle up front? Believing Buffalo can do well offensively AND believing the habs can keep them behind next year is not mutually exclusive at all.

Montreal problem was size and scoring. They are adding Pacioretty and Cole to the top 6 with potentially Kostitsyn been relegate to the 3rd line where we actually believe he could very well do as good if not better.

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08-05-2011, 02:27 PM
  #90
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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
Briere was having a career season on team with a very strong group of offensive players team than was colllectively having a massive amount of puck luck (team shooting was an absurd 12.3%). Briere's offensive totals were going to go down after that pretty much regardless. The 2007-08 Flyers couldn't possibly compete with the 2006-07 Sabres as an enviroment to rack up points.

Leino having a good year while sheltered also wouldn't nearly be as big a concern if he also was 27 years old with only one good season. He was nothing special in the AHL and couldn't manage to do much of anything in Detriot. Even in Finland he only had one significantly good year. He's too old to consider significant improvement at all likely. I cut him a lot more slack if he had shown the ability to get things done outside of extremely favourable circumstances, especially when he needed a lot of puck luck to not be a minus player in those circumstances. He's a bit of the anti-Bogosian where all his good qualities were obvious because of a massively favourable situation. His warts will probably be exposed in the light of real responsiblilties.

you might want to re-check your stat facts on Leino post NHL...

he led his finnish team in scoring in 2 of his final 3 years (finished 2nd the other), and upped his ppg totals, while leading the team, in playoff scoring...

he was 2nd in PPG in his sole AHL season (where he also led the team in playoff scoring).

he struggled in his first real stint with the loaded RedWings, but going into that season, Babcock was raving about what a great all-around hockey player he was (if i had the quote I'd post it, but i remember it clearly as i thought to myself then he'd be a great player to target in trade since he was definitely on the outside looking in with the wings).
He got moved for a small return, and then exploded for 21pts in 19 games in helping the Flyers reach the cup finals.

he followed that up with a very solid first full NHL season, after which he cashed in.

i understand why some people look at his career stats and see a huge risk, but I think part of why he was considered such a valuable UFA is that those who really know hockey (the experts that are either touted or doubted depending on people's personal opinions) professionally can see that, despite his "age" and relative unproven NHL record, the guy is a very good hockey player, who has proven at every level to step up his game in the playoffs...

hard to predict how he will do with the Sabres, but I find it interesting that people so readily and confidently predict Gomez will "bounce back", despite showing no positive signs in his recent/end of season play to indicate that, whereas Leino, who is coming off of a career year in his first full season, is destined to regress simply because he's going to a team where he'll get a bigger role...

bigger role will mean better opposition, but it will also mean more TOI and likely more PPTOI... and arguably better linemates.

Leino was 5th in fwd scoring for the flyers despite being 7th in TOI/G & PPTOI/G.

so as much as the "soft minutes" argument is thrown around as some sort of evidence that he will regress this season, I'd argue that the improved role/linemates & the confidence of coming off of his most successful professional season, are just as likely to lead to an even better season than last year for him.

at the very least, the odds are 50/50 I'd say.

meanwhile, we are generally excited to have landed Cole, yet he will be going from playing next to one of the best Centres in the game to playing with one of Pleks/Gomez/Eller... and he's 33 with a long history of injuries.

over the course of the next 4 seasons, I'd say it's quite likely that Leino proves to be a better signing than cole was... Leino's "long" contract runs out at the same age as Cole is starting his!


Last edited by Miller Time: 08-05-2011 at 02:33 PM.
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08-05-2011, 02:28 PM
  #91
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I think the sabres are improved and have elevated themselves into divisional contention. It should be a 3 team race between montreal, buffalo and boston and I expect all 3 to make the playoffs.

Any fan of these three teams who flat out believes that they already own the divisional crown before the season even starts is being ignorant.

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08-05-2011, 02:32 PM
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Originally Posted by SabresFan44 View Post
It's just this simple.

Montreal WILL NOT finish ahead of Buffalo this year.

I guarantee it.

Sure luck and bounces can come into play but you Habs fans still failed to answer WHY WE will struggle up front.
I mean... we got Subban and you don't. In the laws of physics I call that impossible

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08-05-2011, 02:36 PM
  #93
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Originally Posted by SabresFan44 View Post
It's just this simple.

Montreal WILL NOT finish ahead of Buffalo this year.

I guarantee it.

Sure luck and bounces can come into play but you Habs fans still failed to answer WHY WE will struggle up front.
Do those Blue and Gold colored glasses come in all sizes? The Sabres, Canadiens and Bruins are all in the mix. It is not cut and dried in the least, regardless of some sort of internet guarantee. Really.

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08-05-2011, 02:37 PM
  #94
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I think the sabres are improved and have elevated themselves into divisional contention. It should be a 3 team race between montreal, buffalo and boston and I expect all 3 to make the playoffs.

Any fan of these three teams who flat out believes that they already own the divisional crown before the season even starts is being ignorant.
Agreed. None of this bullcrap.

Let's get teh season started.

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08-05-2011, 02:45 PM
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I'm predicting they'll win the division because:

1. I see them being on par with Montreal and Boston.
2. No team has ever won the North East in back-to-back years.
3. I don't like predicting my own team as division champ.

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08-05-2011, 02:53 PM
  #96
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Originally Posted by SabresFan44 View Post
It's just this simple.

Montreal WILL NOT finish ahead of Buffalo this year.

I guarantee it.

Sure luck and bounces can come into play but you Habs fans still failed to answer WHY WE will struggle up front.
Well if you already KNOW the Habs will finish behind Buffalo, why would you even start this thread?

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08-05-2011, 02:55 PM
  #97
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you might want to re-check your stat facts on Leino post NHL...

he led his finnish team in scoring in 2 of his final 3 years (finished 2nd the other), and upped his ppg totals, while leading the team, in playoff scoring...

he was 2nd in PPG in his sole AHL season (where he also led the team in playoff scoring).

he struggled in his first real stint with the loaded RedWings, but going into that season, Babcock was raving about what a great all-around hockey player he was (if i had the quote I'd post it, but i remember it clearly as i thought to myself then he'd be a great player to target in trade since he was definitely on the outside looking in with the wings).
He got moved for a small return, and then exploded for 21pts in 19 games in helping the Flyers reach the cup finals.

he followed that up with a very solid first full NHL season, after which he cashed in.

i understand why some people look at his career stats and see a huge risk, but I think part of why he was considered such a valuable UFA is that those who really know hockey (the experts that are either touted or doubted depending on people's personal opinions) professionally can see that, despite his "age" and relative unproven NHL record, the guy is a very good hockey player, who has proven at every level to step up his game in the playoffs...

hard to predict how he will do with the Sabres, but I find it interesting that people so readily and confidently predict Gomez will "bounce back", despite showing no positive signs in his recent/end of season play to indicate that, whereas Leino, who is coming off of a career year in his first full season, is destined to regress simply because he's going to a team where he'll get a bigger role...

bigger role will mean better opposition, but it will also mean more TOI and likely more PPTOI... and arguably better linemates.

Leino was 5th in fwd scoring for the flyers despite being 7th in TOI/G & PPTOI/G.

so as much as the "soft minutes" argument is thrown around as some sort of evidence that he will regress this season, I'd argue that the improved role/linemates & the confidence of coming off of his most successful professional season, are just as likely to lead to an even better season than last year for him.

at the very least, the odds are 50/50 I'd say.
The Finnish league is about as good as the AHL so the the numbers are pretty comparable. In only on case in either the SM-liiga or AHL was he over a point per game. Its not that his numbers weren't pretty good at the level he was playing at, its that except for his final year in Finland weren't so good that you could point to them an say that this is a guy that really has a good chance of being a top 6 player in the NHL. The lesser professional leagues are cluttered with guys that produced like Leino did.

If for example a guy scored 46 points in 57 games for the Bulldogs last year at 24 years of age, would you be getting behind the idea that this guy was likely going to be a serious scoring threat at the NHL level? Brock Trotter has done way better than that.

Usually a bigger role means better linemates, but he isn't likely to get better ones in Buffalo than Hartnell and Briere, and considering how deep Philadelphia's defense was, his quailty of teammates for both forwards and defense is likely to go down. He got about as much ice time as one would expect a 2nd line player to get in Buffalo (13.42 per game, would be 3rd for forwards in Buffalo behind Vanek and Boyes). He also got regular powerplay time in Philadelphia (2.30 minutes per game, highest on the team was 2.98) so that isn't going to be a factor either. So he gets none of the benefits of moving up the depth chart and all of the disadvantages due to how extremely unusually favourable his situation in Philadelphia was for an NHL player.

The guys predicting a Gomez bounce back and a Leino regression are largely looking at the same things to make such a prediction. Leino had good linemates and an easy job and got a lot of puck luck also while being underwater on possession despite these favourable circumstances.

Gomez was done in by a combination of linemates either without offensive talent (Moen) or not a favourable compliment in styles (Eller, Cammaleri without Gionta and Kostitsyn) and rediculously low shooting luck (his linemates completely failed to capitalize on the large number of shots an scoring chances the team generated while on he was on ice). With Gomez on the ice Montreal heavily outshot and was pretty good at outchancing the opposition but was outscored. Which points heavily to disfunctional lines and bad luck as the cause for Gomez's poor season. He also has a strong track record as a pretty good point producer both 5 on 5 and on the PP. This strongly points to a player that is about to massively rebound.

So expecting Gomez to improve and Leino to regress is very consistant. It stems from the same way of analyzing NHL players and coming to the conclusion that one hit the high water mark while the other hit the low and both are very likely to regress to the mean.


Last edited by Talks to Goalposts: 08-05-2011 at 03:01 PM.
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08-05-2011, 03:46 PM
  #98
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So expecting Gomez to improve and Leino to regress is very consistant. It stems from the same way of analyzing NHL players and coming to the conclusion that one hit the high water mark while the other hit the low and both are very likely to regress to the mean.
right, except with Leino only having 1 full season (166 total NHL games, over which he averaged 44pts/82games), his statistical track record is far too small to be used in that way.

Gomez, on the other hand, certainly does present a likelihood of improving IF you measure his entire career.

if you were to take only his past 166 games, amazingly you end up with an almost identical figure to Leino's (going back to last years playoff it's 106 games, so i then added his 60game average from 09-10... and ended up with 45pts/82games... i actually thought it'd be higher).

of course, that would be a silly manipulation of factors to arrive at a conclusion (not unlike, imo, the attempts to argue for Leino's impending regression).

We'll see what happens, but i'd be willing to bet that Leino's "regression", if any, this season will be smaller than Gomez's gain... Stats over the past 166 games certainly point to that

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08-05-2011, 03:55 PM
  #99
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Originally Posted by SabresFan44 View Post
It's just this simple.

Montreal WILL NOT finish ahead of Buffalo this year.

I guarantee it.


Sure luck and bounces can come into play but you Habs fans still failed to answer WHY WE will struggle up front.
Avy bet? I'm sure some guys here will be happy to oblige....

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08-05-2011, 04:16 PM
  #100
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The Sabres definitively have a solid team this year, and I think their line-up looks very similar to ours.. An elite goaltender, a very solid blueline, skills on their 3 first lines and a very tough fourth line to face.. I think Sabres' blueline looks better than ours right now but it could change through the year with the emergence of kids like Diaz Emelin and Weber..

The NorthEast will be very intertaining to follow this year since any of Boston Buffalo MTL could finish 1st.. The Leafs should give some better opposition this year but they still lack depth up front as well as a solid goaltender in net.. The Sens are already eliminated..


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