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Jagr expectations?

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08-04-2011, 10:31 AM
  #251
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Originally Posted by SolidSnakeUS View Post
I still do think 70 is pushing it, but even if he were to pull 50 or 60+ out of his ass, his cap hit to points ratio would probably still be better than Leino's .
The Puck Prospectus guys think he will do 70 pts base on cross over guys. I think the bigger problem for Jagr is going to be the 82 games and physicality. Wouldn't be shocked to see his points adversely impacted by missing some games.

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08-04-2011, 11:25 AM
  #252
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
The Puck Prospectus guys think he will do 70 pts base on cross over guys. I think the bigger problem for Jagr is going to be the 82 games and physicality. Wouldn't be shocked to see his points adversely impacted by missing some games.
Well remember, he can hold his own against an entire team (or mostly full) of thugs (containing former NHL goons), but the rest of his team got the snot kicked out of them . Honestly, I don't think physicality will be a problem, mainly because he uses his body to move around and keep the puck, not hit people.

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08-04-2011, 11:29 AM
  #253
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
The Puck Prospectus guys think he will do 70 pts base on cross over guys. I think the bigger problem for Jagr is going to be the 82 games and physicality. Wouldn't be shocked to see his points adversely impacted by missing some games.
You can't use crossover stats between the KHL and the NHL. If that was the case, Ovechkin's 27Pts in 37 games in the RSL/ KHL in 2004-05 would have translated roughly to 55 Pts in the NHL the next season, he however got 52 goals and 106 Pts.

The same goes for Kovalchuk. He had 42 Pts in 53 games in the RSL/ KHL in 2004-05, the following season he had 52 goals and 98 Pts in the NHL.

The RSL/ KHL is a different league. Even Jagr himself said that certain great players who are the cream of the crop in the NHL struggle in the KHL.

The ice is larger so you have to change the way you play the game, there is far less cycling and far less penalties called than in the NHL. Try skating up and down on the NHL ice, then try skating up and down the KHL ice. The larger ice does take a toll on stamina and even then Jagr was averaging 21 minutes a game in the KHL the last 3 years.

Picture the "Dead Puck Era" with all the obstruction and non-penalty calls, the same type of low scoring results and then add the larger ice surface and move the boards back further away from the net, you get the KHL.

This is Jagr on the KHL.

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“It’s much harder to become the best scorer in Russia than NHL. The rinks are much bigger here and one really has to skate a lot. In the NHL, once you get by one person, you have a chance to score. And here? You can get around one defender, but you still have about 20 meters to go. Everyone can skate very well here. I would say, even better than in the NHL. You can’t outrun anyone, really.”

“I spend a lot of time on the ice and in the gym now. I know that I will have to work a lot. Training is much harder in Russia than in the NHL. I would not want people to laugh at me at the first skating session. It’s very important to me not to fall below my personal level even in training.”


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08-04-2011, 11:39 AM
  #254
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Originally Posted by SolidSnakeUS View Post
Well remember, he can hold his own against an entire team (or mostly full) of thugs (containing former NHL goons), but the rest of his team got the snot kicked out of them . Honestly, I don't think physicality will be a problem, mainly because he uses his body to move around and keep the puck, not hit people.
Exactly and he's 6'3 and 225 lbs. He's no midget.

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08-04-2011, 12:04 PM
  #255
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You can use crossover stats, and statisticians have come up with predictive models. You don't care for them because they make you out to be the "obsessed" fanboy that you are.

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08-04-2011, 12:06 PM
  #256
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Originally Posted by SolidSnakeUS View Post
Well remember, he can hold his own against an entire team (or mostly full) of thugs (containing former NHL goons), but the rest of his team got the snot kicked out of them . Honestly, I don't think physicality will be a problem, mainly because he uses his body to move around and keep the puck, not hit people.
Yeah, physicality was never a problem for Lindros.

There's a lot mre wear and tear in the NHL, and it was a problem for Jagr at various times even in his prime years.

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08-04-2011, 12:51 PM
  #257
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Yeah, physicality was never a problem for Lindros.

There's a lot mre wear and tear in the NHL, and it was a problem for Jagr at various times even in his prime years.
Physicality is always a problem for everyone in the NHL, and hell, even all of hockey. If you can keep up your strength, you're still good to go.

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08-04-2011, 02:03 PM
  #258
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Originally Posted by jags6868 View Post
You can't use crossover stats between the KHL and the NHL. If that was the case, Ovechkin's 27Pts in 37 games in the RSL/ KHL in 2004-05 would have translated roughly to 55 Pts in the NHL the next season, he however got 52 goals and 106 Pts.

The same goes for Kovalchuk. He had 42 Pts in 53 games in the RSL/ KHL in 2004-05, the following season he had 52 goals and 98 Pts in the NHL.

The RSL/ KHL is a different league. Even Jagr himself said that certain great players who are the cream of the crop in the NHL struggle in the KHL.

The ice is larger so you have to change the way you play the game, there is far less cycling and far less penalties called than in the NHL. Try skating up and down on the NHL ice, then try skating up and down the KHL ice. The larger ice does take a toll on stamina and even then Jagr was averaging 21 minutes a game in the KHL the last 3 years.

Picture the "Dead Puck Era" with all the obstruction and non-penalty calls, the same type of low scoring results and then add the larger ice surface and move the boards back further away from the net, you get the KHL.

This is Jagr on the KHL.
There's also something to be said for maturity, both physically and as a player. Hell, we had huge discussions not that long ago about a player's prime and whether it's more linked to age, physical maturity, or experience based. Ovie and Kovy in the RSL/KHL at their very young age, is very different than some of the other players that play there later in their career.

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08-04-2011, 02:41 PM
  #259
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Originally Posted by DUHockey9 View Post
There's also something to be said for maturity, both physically and as a player. Hell, we had huge discussions not that long ago about a player's prime and whether it's more linked to age, physical maturity, or experience based. Ovie and Kovy in the RSL/KHL at their very young age, is very different than some of the other players that play there later in their career.
I guess we shall wait and see how he does.

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08-04-2011, 02:48 PM
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Originally Posted by jags6868 View Post
I guess we shall wait and see how he does.
Yep.

I'm trying to recall the prediction I made upon signing. I think I said 65 pts. I'll stick with that.

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08-04-2011, 03:11 PM
  #261
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I'm not the biggest fan of recycling older superstars but I think Jagr is a fair risk...he should provide enough added value and may even surprise if he can play most of the season barring injury. I'll take 50 to 60 points which should make up for Leino's loss and I'll also take his PP skills. Everything else like I mentioned earlier in the thread will be gravy..

I think Jagr will equal or exceed the added value we got out of the likes of Forsberg, Hawerchuck and to some extent Zhamnov (not a former superstar but a very good player). If we can get the production Forsberg gave that would be gravy..obviously don't want all the injury drama.

Honorable mention but not former superstars were Danny Markov and Malahkov who had nice albeit short stints as well.

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08-04-2011, 04:35 PM
  #262
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Hawerchuk won't be that hard to top. Talk about cooked when he got to us.

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08-04-2011, 04:59 PM
  #263
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Hawerchuk won't be that hard to top. Talk about cooked when he got to us.
He was better than Paul Coffey at least. Ugh, the retreads Clarke used to fill out the roster with back then.

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08-04-2011, 08:12 PM
  #264
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Just to be clear, using Jordan as a baseline (since hockey and basketball are very similar sports), I take it we can assume that Jagr will lose about a third of his career average production.

Jagr's career average is 1.26 PPG. A third of that is .42 PPG. So, 0.84 PPG. A 68.88 point season.
Jordan was out of the league and not playing any type of competitive basketball or staying in shape for 3 years before he returned to the NBA. He was in a similar situation to Mario Lemieux. If you look at Jordan's physique in 1998 and then again in his return in 2001 you can tell he was nowhere near the level of fitness he used to be at when he was the game's best player.

Jagr on the other hand has been playing competitive hockey for the last 3 years in what is arguably the world's second best hockey league. He's also been training really hard and hitting the gym and is in the best shape of his career.

So although the NBA and the NHL are comparable enough in terms of season length, the comparison of Jordan- Jagr is not fair because one was not playing any sport for 3 years and was out of shape and had to get back into shape during the season, the other has been staying in great shape and has been still playing his sport competitively.

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08-05-2011, 09:03 AM
  #265
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Haha. Seems like just yesterday Jordan was a stud in his later years. Now he's a guy that was struggling due to reasons that won't affect Jagr.

BTW, I was being completely sarcastic in comparing NBA players to NHL players. The sports aren't comparable at all.

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08-05-2011, 04:51 PM
  #266
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Haha. Seems like just yesterday Jordan was a stud in his later years. Now he's a guy that was struggling due to reasons that won't affect Jagr.

BTW, I was being completely sarcastic in comparing NBA players to NHL players. The sports aren't comparable at all.
Hey, whatever floats your boat. I guess hockey is the only sport in the world that's considered tough. Soccer players, basketball players, football players, MMA athletes and boxers are all little sissies compared to hockey players.


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08-05-2011, 04:56 PM
  #267
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Great players who still dominate their sport when they are close to 40 are rare in those sports too. They're the exception to the rule.

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08-05-2011, 05:29 PM
  #268
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Hey, whatever floats your boat. I guess hockey is the only sport in the world that's considered tough. Soccer players, basketball players, football players, MMA athletes and boxers are all little sissies compared to hockey players.
Where did I say hockey is the only sport that is considered tough? I won't be holding my breath while you go looking for it, because you won't be finding it.

MMA athletes and boxers are fighters... not hockey players. It requires a different set of skills, a different set of training regimes, a different set of physical attributes to be good at those sports. Not only that, fighters train for an event for MONTHS and then do not have another event for months after that event. How is this even remotely comparable to an 82 game hockey season?

Soccer players... actually, lets come back to soccer players.

Basketball players... it's a sport nothing like hockey. NOTHING like hockey. You need to be athletic, but you aren't throwing and receiving body checks. It's also a sport in which you play at a constant tempo for 30-40 minutes (hockey players don't do that). It's a sport in which you run and jump... neither of which are things that you really need to be able to do in order to play hockey well, and are also activities that wear down your body differently than playing hockey.

The only football players you've mentioned are Jerry Rice, and QBs. QBs aren't like other football players, so they don't even begin to work as a comparative. About 85% of being a good QB is between the ears, not in your actual athletic ability. Jerry Rice is a complete outlier at his position... so, again, he doesn't work for your argument (as noted above, your argument is simply terrible so this makes sense).

Soccer players... how many really good soccer players are out there in their 30s? We talk about soccer player careers winding down at 30... not at 40 (outside of goal, which is, similar to QB, very different from other athletes within the sport).

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08-05-2011, 05:32 PM
  #269
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Great players who still dominate their sport when they are close to 40 are rare in those sports too. They're the exception to the rule.
Everything I wrote disappeared.

However I do agree with the fact that players who are closer to their 40's who still dominate their sport are rare.

Jagr is not Gretzky or Lemieux, he is however the closest to them in the last 20 years. We can all agree he's a step ahead of Selanne, Hull, Francis, Messier, Oates...

I'm confident that had Gretzky and Lemieux not had the chronic back problems that plagued them for most of the 90's, they would most likely have topped the list of players who had over PPG at ages 38, 39 40 +.

Jagr on the other hand has no recent history of chronic injuries.

Some of you guys are underrating the importance of conditioning and training in the NHL, especially for players who are closer to 40. Jagr might have to train a bit harder than the average 25 year old now, but that will to train and stay in shape can only help Jagr. He's motivated, he's fresh and he's in peak physical shape.

All the arguments going against Jagr scoring at a PPG pace are flawed.

1. He's 39 and Selanne is an outlier. This is flawed because although Selanne had one of the better seasons ever for a 40 year old, we have seen a list of players who were 38, 39, 40 who had just as impressive seasons as Selanne and this is just 1991 until now alone. Selanne also for 95% of his career was just a tad level lower. Selanne was never considered the best player in the NHL, Jagr was for a long time and just as recently as 2005-06. Selanne also has had several injuries including a chronic knee injury that has plagued him in the last 10 years and that knee injury threatened to end his career if not for the lockout saving his career.

2. The KHL is a far weaker league. Yes this is true but it is also the second best league in the world. This very league saw guys like Lecavalier, Kovalchuk, Ovechkin, Datsyuk struggle there during the lockout only to be superstars the following season. The league is also vastly different than the NHL and is stingier on offensive players ever more so than the NHL. It might not be as physical but the lack of clean officiating and anti-obstruction rules make it very hard on offensive players. It's very much similar to a toned down version of the no-holds barred 70's of the NHL. Goons make a living there and if you think star players aren't protected in the NHL, go look at the KHL. The KHL also has a different culture of hockey. There is far less focus on individual performances than in the NHL and Jagr was not immune to this. He never really set any personal goals to lead the KHL in scoring. Jagr's size and strength will also make it that he can still handle more physicality than 90% of the league.

3. The NHL has passed Jagr by and the speed is too much for Jagr to handle. This is very wrong. Jagr has trimmed down and is now 225 lbs as opposed to 245 lbs that he was the last time he was in the NHL. In the KHL he had to refocus himself to skate and play a speed oriented game. He himself says he finds it harder to score in the KHL than the NHL. He couldn't play along the boards and there if you beat one guy, you have to beat another guy. You can just rip shots like in the NHL. Jagr however was not slow and kept up very well with some of the younger, fast Russians and Europeans. He did get 51 Pts in 49 games (was one of only 8 players with PPG in the KHL). We have already discussed how the KHL benefits a certain type of player more, the smaller finesse players like Morozov and Radulov (why do you think Radulov doesn't want to return to the NHL?). The NHL benefits skilled but big, strong players more. Jagr is the perfect example.

These are some of the arguments I've heard and they are flawed. I'm not saying my opinion is better than everyone else's, but my opinion comes from knowing Jagr and knowing what he can still do at this age.

He might not get more than 100 Pts, but his skill set and his renewed speed and dedication to fitness means that the chances of Jagr getting 75-95 Pts are not as impossible as some are making it out to be.

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08-05-2011, 05:35 PM
  #270
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Nobody is saying that Jagr getting 75-95 points is impossible. They're saying it's unlikely based on all indicators. There's a difference between unlikely and impossible.

For example, Selanne's season last year was unlikely. That's what makes it awesome.

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08-05-2011, 05:36 PM
  #271
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You understand the contention was never that Jagr "could not" get 95-100 pts, but that your low end of the bar for expectations was hopelessly delusional, right? It's certainly possible that Jagr could have a monster year, it's simply far more likely that he will fall below the PPG threshold you've established for what he should be expected to get... which makes that expectation silly.

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08-05-2011, 05:53 PM
  #272
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Nobody is saying that Jagr getting 75-95 points is impossible. They're saying it's unlikely based on all indicators. There's a difference between unlikely and impossible.

For example, Selanne's season last year was unlikely. That's what makes it awesome.
How many players have 5 Art Ross trophies or more? There are 5, Esposito has 5, Jagr has 5, Howe has 6, Lemieux has 6 and Gretzky has 9 or 10, not sure.

So my question is, what is more rare or harder, winning 5 Art Ross or scoring at a PPG clip at age 39-40?

It seems that scoring at a PPG clip at ages 38, 39, 40 are more frequent than someone winning 5 Art Ross trophies. Jagr is one of a handful who have accomplished that. I don't see why he doesn't at least deserve the benefit of the doubt.

What Selanne did was awesome because of his age but is also more awesome considering he never played more than 54 games the previous 3 seasons and was far below PPG those 3 seasons. Selanne was injured and bounced back.

Jagr arguably bouncing back from a 2007-08 season is not as impossible. He's healthy and hasn't been rehabbing any injuries or bad knees the last 3 years.

So are healthy and fitness not important then?

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08-05-2011, 05:56 PM
  #273
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You understand the contention was never that Jagr "could not" get 95-100 pts, but that your low end of the bar for expectations was hopelessly delusional, right? It's certainly possible that Jagr could have a monster year, it's simply far more likely that he will fall below the PPG threshold you've established for what he should be expected to get... which makes that expectation silly.
Are Francis and Oates on the same level as Jagr? They both had PPG or near PPG seasons at age 38, 39.

Heck Oates led the league in assists at ages 38 and 39. How many Art Ross trophies did Oates win in his career?

I'm not saying Jagr is superman but if players who were smaller in stature, not as strong, not as skilled can score at near PPG pace, why is it silly to predict that someone like Jagr who is bigger, stronger and more skilled can score 75-95 Pts?

Oates and Francis also did this during the "Dead Puck Era" when obstruction was seldom called and hooking, grabbing and slashing were some of things that players had to contend with on a nightly basis.

Jagr is re-entering a different type of league. He's coming to a league where stick obstruction is being refereed much more strictly. Jagr's ability to hold on the puck will alone allow to gain powerplays for his team and in the process getting many opportunities to score on those powerplays.

What also needs to be said is that Jagr's 2007-08 season is less of an indication of him regressing than it was about him not having good linemates and being moved around all season long until he had a stable centerman near the end of the season in Dubinsky who was a rookie albeit. Jagr's lack of production that regular season was not something rare. In his last season in Pittsburgh and his time in Washington was a display of when Jagr is not happy, or doubting his talent that he can struggle to score points. That might be his lone weakness, his mental toughness. The 2007-08 regular season was followed by some of the most dominant playoff hockey that Jagr played in his career and this was at age 36. He played with Dubinsky during that playoff and their chemistry from the end of the regular season carried over. That season the Rangers didn't have a single 30 goal scorer and Jagr still led the Rangers in scoring.

This coming season the Flyers will have 3 potential 30 goal scorers outside of Jagr in Briere, Giroux and JVR. Imagine the kind of production and chemistry Jagr can have with these guys.

Although Jagr was in his prime and only 30 when he joined the Capitals, he never got more than 80 Pts. It looked like he was regressing and the days of him getting 100 + Pts and challenging for the Art Ross were long gone. Then Jagr went and played in the RSL/ KHL and came back with new found passion and motivation for the NHL.

Yes he's 5 years older now but he comes back to a similar situation. Like the Rangers, the Flyers have revamped their roster and like the Rangers the Flyers have young, motivated hockey players to play with Jagr. Being away from the NHL for 3 years will make Jagr hungry and with his ego I doubt he will be satisfied scoring less than 80 Pts.


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08-05-2011, 06:11 PM
  #274
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Originally Posted by jags6868 View Post
How many players have 5 Art Ross trophies or more? There are 5, Esposito has 5, Jagr has 5, Howe has 6, Lemieux has 6 and Gretzky has 9 or 10, not sure.

So my question is, what is more rare or harder, winning 5 Art Ross or scoring at a PPG clip at age 39-40?

It seems that scoring at a PPG clip at ages 38, 39, 40 are more frequent than someone winning 5 Art Ross trophies. Jagr is one of a handful of have accomplished that. I don't see why he doesn't at least deserve the benefit of the doubt.

What Selanne did was yes but is also awesome considering he never played more than 54 games the previous 3 seasons and was far below PPG those 3 seasons. Selanne was injured and bounced back.

Jagr arguably bouncing back from a 2007-08 season is not as impossible. He's healthy and hasn't been rehabbing any injuries or bad knees the last 3 years.

So are healthy and fitness not important then?
Scoring 5 Art Ross Trophies is irrelevant. The point is this: expecting Jagr to score 95 points flies in the face of all evidence...that's why it would be special for Jagr to score 95 points.

While we're at it: Gretzky scored at less than a PPG in his last season at 38. Lemieux at 39 didn't score at a PPG, though it's a small sample size. Howe at 39 scored less than a PPG. Esposito at 39 scored less than a PPG.

I never said conditioning isn't important. Nobody is saying that. However, you are overrating it. His competition will be in great condition as well, and they will be younger. Being in shape only gets you so far, and it doesn't counteract the natural and unstoppable aging process. 70-75 points would be a really good season for him. anything more than that would be something truly great. Impossible? No. Unlikely? Yes. Should it be expected? No.

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08-05-2011, 06:24 PM
  #275
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Scoring 5 Art Ross Trophies is irrelevant. The point is this: expecting Jagr to score 95 points flies in the face of all evidence...that's why it would be special for Jagr to score 95 points.

While we're at it: Gretzky scored at less than a PPG in his last season at 38. Lemieux at 39 didn't score at a PPG, though it's a small sample size. Howe at 39 scored less than a PPG. Esposito at 39 scored less than a PPG.

I never said conditioning isn't important. Nobody is saying that. However, you are overrating it. His competition will be in great condition as well, and they will be younger. Being in shape only gets you so far, and it doesn't counteract the natural and unstoppable aging process. 70-75 points would be a really good season for him. anything more than that would be something truly great. Impossible? No. Unlikely? Yes. Should it be expected? No.
Did you not read my post about Gretzky and Lemieux? They both had bad backs and played like that for a good portion of their 30's. Their regression and demise came a lot quicker than it should have due to their health.

What chronic injuries or health issues does Jagr have?

You talk about Esposito? He was nothing without Orr and was a fat smoker and with that bad work ethic and fitness level of course he wasn't going to score at a PPG clip at age 39. Please don't compare Esposito to Jagr.

Howe didn't get PPG at age 39 but he did get 65 Pts in 69 games, pretty darn close. He then got 82 Pts in 74 games at age 40 and 103 Pts at age 41.

As for the argument of other younger players being just as well conditioned as Jagr, how many of those players have Jagr's vision, playmaking ability, experience, hands and shooting skills?

The list of players with that type of skillset is limited even in this NHL.

The list might include Crosby, Malkin, the Sedins, Stamkos, Ovechkin, Datsyuk, Kovalchuk and maybe St. Louis but that's about it. Even at age 39 Jagr is better than 90% of the league. Some of those players have some of those skills, but other than Malkin and Crosby none of them have all those skills at the same time.

Jagr is also more skilled than Selanne. You keep throwing odds at me but you haven't answered the question legitimately as to why Jagr won't score at a PPG pace. Why won't he? Is it because history shows that players passed 38 can no longer put up PPG seasons?

I say he's fit, has far less wear and tear than the average 35 + year old player be it now or compared to past 35 + year old greats, he''s healthy, he's still extremely skilled at his age, he's motivated, he's fresh, he's faster now than he was 3 years ago but I guess even the entire combination means nothing to you right?

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