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The Official Scott Gomez Thread part Cuatro - Rancho Relaxo Edition

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Old
08-07-2011, 02:06 AM
  #151
Miller Time
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
"I don't care what anyone says! Every piece of evidence that disagrees with me is inherently invalid!"
just thinking of typing the same thing in replying to another thread...

great minds think alike I guess

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08-07-2011, 06:00 AM
  #152
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
"I don't care what anyone says! Every piece of evidence that disagrees with me is inherently invalid!"
You can find data that supports any theory you want. It doesn't mean you are using/understanding the data properly.

If someone tells me Gomez was just as good as he was all his career last season, I have to say that something is wrong with the the data that was chosen, the data is incomplete or misinterpreted.

To say shot quality isn't relevant because over 1000+ shots it's about the same % of shots that go in... I find that to be a simplistic assumption.

Some things don't jive with me. I don't have the energy, patience and time to find what the problem is for you guys

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08-07-2011, 08:26 AM
  #153
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Originally Posted by overlords View Post
Did you hear that? That was your credibility dying.
Now here is actually a great lol post that is deserving of a slapping your leg while lol

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Originally Posted by coolasprICE View Post
soft-spot for gomez: check
over-protective in eveything Gomez: check
overly-optimistic and hopeful for Gomez: check
wrong about last seasons prediction that Gomez will bounce back: check

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Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post


and this, ladies and gentlemen, is why I come back to this site so often. CIce, thanks for the laugh!

Well played sir, well played. (cue the slow, deliberate clap).
Except that none of his points were true. The person he quoted didn't say anything positive or stand up for Gomez a single iota. So it was a huge fail of a post imo. It was designed to jump on the bash Gomez wagon and that's it.

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08-07-2011, 10:34 AM
  #154
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Dumb Question

Watching Gomez play in Jersey I saw a very good player. He seemed to play very interactively with other players with urgency and creativity. Now he gains the zone with ease then dumps in the bed like he is lost e.g. isolated with no other players around to feed off of. Does he need to play with creative players or players that can get him the puck and be in synch e.g. can take a pass and make a play? Its hard to believe he has lost it but either he needs to do something differently or the coach does.

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08-07-2011, 10:54 AM
  #155
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Originally Posted by E = CH² View Post
If someone tells me Gomez was just as good as he was all his career last season, I have to say that something is wrong with the the data that was chosen, the data is incomplete or misinterpreted.

To say shot quality isn't relevant because over 1000+ shots it's about the same % of shots that go in... I find that to be a simplistic assumption.

Some things don't jive with me. I don't have the energy, patience and time to find what the problem is for you guys
And we've gone right into "I can't understand it, so it has no value and I can just dismiss it".

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08-07-2011, 11:35 AM
  #156
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
And we've gone right into "I can't understand it, so it has no value and I can just dismiss it".
I actually believe the opposite, you guys don't understand the data you're looking at, so you have something you're not sure how to quantify and you arbitrarily call it luck. I know, I know, they're giving out cash for anyone to prove shot quality makes a difference, but they can dismiss any evidence as they wish, lol.

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08-07-2011, 11:38 AM
  #157
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Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
I actually believe the opposite, you guys don't understand the data you're looking at, so you have something you're not sure how to quantify and you arbitrarily call it luck. I know, I know, they're giving out cash for anyone to prove shot quality makes a difference, but they can dismiss any evidence as they wish, lol.
The origins of the microstats have been explained again and again, and someone has yet to challenge these explanations. Why do you believe we don't understand the data we're using?

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08-07-2011, 12:22 PM
  #158
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#Habs *News*- Spotted in NYC, S.Gomez seems to be in grand form having trained all summer and gaining muscle. He's ready to bounce back.

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08-07-2011, 12:38 PM
  #159
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Originally Posted by toshiro View Post
Watching Gomez play in Jersey I saw a very good player. He seemed to play very interactively with other players with urgency and creativity. Now he gains the zone with ease then dumps in the bed like he is lost e.g. isolated with no other players around to feed off of. Does he need to play with creative players or players that can get him the puck and be in synch e.g. can take a pass and make a play? Its hard to believe he has lost it but either he needs to do something differently or the coach does.
Good post. His first season in Montreal, there was a rumor about Gomez and Gill disagreeing on the type of game they should play: a creative-type of game a la Gomez or a simple game. What I saw last season was Gomez getting very little support from his teammates. I read a lot of complaints to the fact that he would simply lose the puck once he'd cross the blue line but I remember many instances when he had no options whatsoever.

Since Gomez is not a shooter, he becomes very limited when his teammates can't get free. I was hoping he would spend last summer practicing his shooting so he could be less predictable. Hope things will be different next season.

That being said, Gomez didn't have a good season defensively either. He was pretty much lost out there.

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08-07-2011, 01:05 PM
  #160
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Originally Posted by Max Levine View Post
Good post. His first season in Montreal, there was a rumor about Gomez and Gill disagreeing on the type of game they should play: a creative-type of game a la Gomez or a simple game. What I saw last season was Gomez getting very little support from his teammates. I read a lot of complaints to the fact that he would simply lose the puck once he'd cross the blue line but I remember many instances when he had no options whatsoever.

Since Gomez is not a shooter, he becomes very limited when his teammates can't get free. I was hoping he would spend last summer practicing his shooting so he could be less predictable. Hope things will be different next season.

That being said, Gomez didn't have a good season defensively either. He was pretty much lost out there.
There you said it. Since he became so predictable when he enters the offensive zone, its hard for his linemmates to get free because the opponent knows the puck is going to them and not the net. I still maintain that Gomez needs to drive the net more, especially with the speed he STILL has. He will be less predictable, likely to draw more penalty, gives his linemates more options and creates more space for them. Oh and also, its also much easier to score when he is close to the net than around the boards.

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08-07-2011, 01:52 PM
  #161
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Levine View Post
Since Gomez is not a shooter, he becomes very limited when his teammates can't get free. I was hoping he would spend last summer practicing his shooting so he could be less predictable. Hope things will be different next season.

That being said, Gomez didn't have a good season defensively either. He was pretty much lost out there.
Forget shooting. Just drive the net like he used to in Jersey. I mean he always played like he was 5'5" but at least he went to the net and created traffic.

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08-07-2011, 03:15 PM
  #162
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
"I don't care what anyone says! Every piece of evidence that disagrees with me is inherently invalid!"
More on this..

You assume that because it hasn't been proven that shot quality has a definitive influence on the % of shots that go in then it must mean that shot quality has no influence. Once upon a time, it hadn't been proven that the earth was round either. It's not because something doesn't have a proof that it doesn't exist. It is possible that all it means is that no one brilliant enough to figure it out has wanted to take the time to convince you guys that it does exist and has an impact. The problem with proving it is that there are so many factors at play here and in the end it only represents a few % of difference. It's a heck of a lot more complicated to prove it then to just make an ultra simplistic assumption based on a huge amount of numbers.

It's like saying :

I've looked at thousands and thousands of planets through my telescope and found no other signs of life forms in the universe thus based on this huge data sample I must conclude other life forms do not exist.

Common sense, if you use it, would tell you hockey Sabremetrics are at their very first few steps. Hockey is a very small sport that does not have that many followers and thus few quality statistician minds behind it. It's also more difficult to model with stats than baseball because it's not as static. Thus common sense would certainly make you very very cautious when using hockey Sabremetrics because it's entirely possible that a lot of really really wrong assumptions are being made due to the "discipline" being so new. I'm sure that the assumption that you should expect a certain % of shots to go in is right most of the time. I'd use it in my polls to predict who had fluke seasons and who's bound to bounce back because I don't know enough of other players on other teams to have an educated opinion and I'm sure that this assumption would hold true in most cases. Heck, it certainly would be better than the little I can remember and have seen from these players.

I think that in Gomez case you guys are missing something though. I think you guys blindly trust into the assumption that has been proven to be right most of the time in the past, and it's understandable, but that's precisely when alarm bells should be going off in your head and when you should realize well maybe the idea that all shots average out to be of the same quality is possibly not a perfect representation of reality.

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08-07-2011, 03:47 PM
  #163
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Originally Posted by hockeyman View Post
#Habs *News*- Spotted in NYC, S.Gomez seems to be in grand form having trained all summer and gaining muscle. He's ready to bounce back.
imagine he actually does come back in the best shape of his career AND it translates to his best season ever...

wouldn't even have to mean hitting 80pts, just being better overall in all phases of the game, and dangerous enough on offense so as to actually make use of his passing skills and bolster his teammates production.


i'm still skeptical that he'll even "bounce back" to a 50pt production plateau, something about his attitude and his refusal even in the playoffs to get his "nose dirty" and play with the kind of fire/passion you'd expect from someone determined to make amends...

but boy would i love to be wrong in this case.

Gomez playing like a true top-6, let alone top-line, centre would seriously improve this teams level of play, and perhaps even propel us into the true "contender" group.

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08-07-2011, 04:58 PM
  #164
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Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post
imagine he actually does come back in the best shape of his career AND it translates to his best season ever...

wouldn't even have to mean hitting 80pts, just being better overall in all phases of the game, and dangerous enough on offense so as to actually make use of his passing skills and bolster his teammates production.


i'm still skeptical that he'll even "bounce back" to a 50pt production plateau, something about his attitude and his refusal even in the playoffs to get his "nose dirty" and play with the kind of fire/passion you'd expect from someone determined to make amends...

but boy would i love to be wrong in this case.

Gomez playing like a true top-6, let alone top-line, centre would seriously improve this teams level of play, and perhaps even propel us into the true "contender" group.
If Prime NJD Scott Gomez shows up to training camp this year and stays healthy he would be a wild card that would actually change our entire team. Because thinking about how deep we are on paper right now... if Gomez does bounce back holy **** we'll be a dominant team, an actual contender. Gomez on his game = Gionta 30+ goals easy, Pacioretty 20-25g easy. (if they're paired together)

So Gomer would put up roughly 70pts if he were really playing at his best. I think a lot of people don't realize just how good Gomez was in Jersey. (On our squad playing 2nd line minutes on a defensive team at this point in his career expecting him to feed Gio 50 goals is a bit much lol)

Can you guys honestly believe in 05-06 Gomez had 33g 51a 84p and Gionta had 48 goals! If they did actually manage to re-find that magic it would be leet. I'm not expecting much other than 60pt Gomez but if he does more than that I'll be very happy. Happy enough to not even care about his cap hit anymore.


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08-07-2011, 05:21 PM
  #165
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The origins of the microstats have been explained again and again, and someone has yet to challenge these explanations. Why do you believe we don't understand the data we're using?
Because it's apparent in your explanations/discussions you have no idea what they mean yourself, they are not the be all, end all of statistics, many of them are largely guess work, and Olivier himself has stated he's not sure if this is the best way to go about it, ect ect when discussing certain criteria, they are an interesting conversation piece and a little something to ponder, but they aren't fool proof. They should mostly be taken with a grain of salt.

Even baseball Sabremetrics are somewhat sketchy and not 100% perfect, but they have a much more proven track record than these microstats. Baseball is a series of isolated events, where basically everyone is an individual on a team, whereas in hockey you play as a team the entire time and there are way too many variables not being accounted for.

I don't put a lot of weight in many things being discussed. Actually I have a hard time finding a time when mathman referenced these to guess a future outcome and be right, he's usually wrong by a mile.

The habs will win the division, Gomez improves, the bruins will get trounced, and on and on and on. If these were even semi meaningful you would expect to be right from time to time. When your track record is horrible, maybe it's time to look in another direction.


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08-07-2011, 05:46 PM
  #166
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I think the problem people have with the microstat argument, ultimately, is that they're so married with the idea that Gomez must have done something wrong not to collect points (and that a player who doesn't get points is playing poorly) that they're effectively assuming that Gomez is a player gifted with a unique, special form of badness.

They're effectively arguing that he is somehow different from everyone who's gone through the same issue with percentages before him, in some unspecified but definite way. Because of that specialness, his scoring chances and the shots his teammates make while he's on the ice are somehow inherently worse than when he's not, in some vague manner for which there is no evidence except one: the notion that they didn't result in goals because they were low quality shots, and you know they were low-quality they didn't result in goals. Pretty circular.

They're also saying that Gomez is bad in such a special fashion that he's not going to be subject to regression to the mean the way every other player who's had a season like him has been in the past.

I just don't think, personally, that Gomez is that special. Oh, of course, it's not altogether impossible that he is such an incredibly unique player, but it's like (to reuse that example used earlier) finding a planet with life on it.

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08-07-2011, 05:49 PM
  #167
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Originally Posted by Max Levine View Post
Good post. His first season in Montreal, there was a rumor about Gomez and Gill disagreeing on the type of game they should play: a creative-type of game a la Gomez or a simple game.
It's not a rumour, it is now a fact, there was a detailed article about it at the end of this season.

As much as people love to bash BG for doing a hasty make over, he totally transformed the team and brought in leadership that is integral to our success.

If I was given a time machine and was given the opportunity to know about Gomez'- t8 point season, I would redo the Gomez trade.

As much as I've thought Gill was a pylon even 4 years ago, I don't complain about him being resigned over a Hammer because intangibles are worth something.

Moen also played a supporting role in that locker room leadership at one point.

I don't think Price, PK, Patches, DD wouldbe the players they are today without Gill and Gomez.

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08-07-2011, 08:46 PM
  #168
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I still haven't read anybody give strong arguments as to how Gomez's play was so different from the previous year.
Gomez in 09-10 compared to 10-11 wasn't any different. Same thing with Plekanec, people were always saying he didn't look too differently, that it certainly wasn't from a lack of trying that his production went down. Well, Gomez never was the hard working corner or drive the net guy over here in Mtl.
The biggest difference I saw from Gomez is that the conversion rate of his line diminished. That wasn't due to lack of opportunity or because he didn't create anything. Sometimes it simply isn't your night, or your week, or your month, or your year.
When you look at the stats Olivier brings up, it pretty much points to that. You can either choose to believe that, or think they're flawed and go with the ''Gomez was lazy, didn't drive, etc..'' excuses even though he was pretty much the same player two years ago.

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08-07-2011, 09:35 PM
  #169
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
I think the problem people have with the microstat argument, ultimately, is that they're so married with the idea that Gomez must have done something wrong not to collect points (and that a player who doesn't get points is playing poorly) that they're effectively assuming that Gomez is a player gifted with a unique, special form of badness.

They're effectively arguing that he is somehow different from everyone who's gone through the same issue with percentages before him, in some unspecified but definite way. Because of that specialness, his scoring chances and the shots his teammates make while he's on the ice are somehow inherently worse than when he's not, in some vague manner for which there is no evidence except one: the notion that they didn't result in goals because they were low quality shots, and you know they were low-quality they didn't result in goals. Pretty circular.

They're also saying that Gomez is bad in such a special fashion that he's not going to be subject to regression to the mean the way every other player who's had a season like him has been in the past.

I just don't think, personally, that Gomez is that special. Oh, of course, it's not altogether impossible that he is such an incredibly unique player, but it's like (to reuse that example used earlier) finding a planet with life on it.
I can't think of too many form 1st line players that had a 7goal 38 point year because of bad luck. He might be on the list by himself. I think he's declining, we'll see what next year brings.

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08-07-2011, 11:25 PM
  #170
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I can't think of too many form 1st line players that had a 7goal 38 point year because of bad luck. He might be on the list by himself. I think he's declining, we'll see what next year brings.
Patrick Marleau had a run of terrible team shooting luck in 07-08 (~5% I recall). Turned a consistant point per game player into a 48 point guy. He rebounded just fine to his normally offensive production. Not as low as Gomez but Marleau is a much better player so it works out to about the same proportionately.

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08-07-2011, 11:50 PM
  #171
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Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
Because it's apparent in your explanations/discussions you have no idea what they mean yourself, they are not the be all, end all of statistics, many of them are largely guess work, and Olivier himself has stated he's not sure if this is the best way to go about it, ect ect when discussing certain criteria, they are an interesting conversation piece and a little something to ponder, but they aren't fool proof. They should mostly be taken with a grain of salt.
?? I never claimed that these stats were "the be all, end all" on anything, so I have no idea where your comment come from. Or are you claiming that since these microstats are imperfect or sometimes even arbitrary, they are of no interest?

Nobody is saying that you should only analyse players based on these stats - just that they can give unexpected and non-obvious insight beyond "how a player look", which can sometimes end up being biased.

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