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What's more likely, Habs get 100pts, or miss playoffs?

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Old
08-09-2011, 06:32 AM
  #76
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kaneone View Post
And now it's going to be a new year, where you start off with 0 points.
Yea and they have a better team than last year.

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08-09-2011, 06:33 AM
  #77
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Originally Posted by TerribleDaddy View Post
I'm thinking now that their success can be attributed to coaching, and certainly in the last season, goaltending.

I'm not so sure that they can rely on another stellar season from Price, and the division appears to be stronger than in the last few years.
Montreal certainly isn't the only team that relies on goaltending. Especially in the Northeast. Boston, Buffalo and even Toronto are heavily dependent on their goalies as well, not to mention the Rangers, Canes, Devils and now Flyers.

Not sure why anyone would pick a 24-year old phenomenal goalie to regress, so I say 100 points is far more likely, especially if the Habs are healthier this season.

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Originally Posted by WarriorOfGandhi View Post
The Habs scoring 100 points requires Price to maintain or improve upon his .924 save %. That's possible, but unlikely. There are only 2-5 goalies each season that can put up a save percentage that high over the duration of 60+ games, and it's more likely that Price will put up a more "pedestrian" save percentage (say, somewhere between .915-920) then it is he will repeat or do better than his career season, meaning that it is more likely Montreal misses they playoffs than they crack three digits
Actually the Habs getting 100 points doesn't require Price to put up better stats, the team just needs an extra 3 or 4 goals for. That's it. They missed 100 points by 4 last year with an injury-riddled team that was offensively challenged while everyone on the team was going through career-lows in scoring. Adding Cole and installing Markov on the point of the PP is good for a lot more than 4 extra goals for.

I'd be far more worried about the Bruins, since they were basically even with the Habs all last year until Chara ended Pacioretty's season. The Bruins have not improved, and for them to match last season's numbers they absolutely need a 37 year old goaltender to have another season like last, where he put up an astonishingly high record .938 save percentage. I don't see that happening again, I really don't.

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08-09-2011, 06:59 AM
  #78
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Depends on how healthy they can stay. 96 pts last year with no Markov, Gorges and a bit without Pacman. Add in Cole to replace Pouliot and 100 pts isn't out of the question. I'm more curious to see how the defense plays without Hamerlik.

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08-09-2011, 08:19 AM
  #79
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MTL has to be one of the most underrated team in the league. Every year everyone has them out of the playoffs, yet they always need up competitive.

Last year they had 96 points using this lineup

Cammy-Pleck-A.Kost
Pouliot-Gomez-Gionta
xxx-Eller-Moen
Pyatt-Halpern-Darche

xxx Pacioretty/Desharnais/White/Boyd/Dawes

Going into this season

Cammy-Pleck-Cole
Pacioretty-Gomez-Gionta
Desharnais-Eller-A.Kost
Moen-xxx-Darche/White

They go from having Moen-Darche-Pouliot, playing most of the season in our top 6 to have A.Kost a 3rd liner.

On D:

Gill-Subban
Hamrlik-Wiz
Spacek-Sopel/Picard

And we replace the Hamrlik-Wiz pairing with Markov-Gorges
I think we all could agree that Markov-Gorges>Hamrlik-Wiz. and replace Picard Sopel with Yemelin and Weber.

That might not be a 100 team but its a lot more likely than not making the playoffs.

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08-09-2011, 08:43 AM
  #80
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Originally Posted by HarryI View Post
Yea and they have a better team than last year.
So do a number of teams in the East.

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08-09-2011, 09:00 AM
  #81
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Originally Posted by HockeyCrazed101 View Post
So do a number of teams in the East.
Which none playoff team from last year greatly improved?

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08-09-2011, 09:01 AM
  #82
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I think I'd first see them miss the playoffs than 100 points.

I'll put them at 94 points and in the playoffs though.

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08-09-2011, 09:04 AM
  #83
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Originally Posted by habs03 View Post
Which none playoff team from last year greatly improved?
Go back and read the trail of responses properly and then ask yourself how your question is even relevant.

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08-09-2011, 09:34 AM
  #84
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Originally Posted by Pyrophorus View Post
I'm with the OP, I never understood their success, then I realized it was Price.

Greater chance of missing.
Well this is a refreshing change from previous year's reasons for success..."it was all Halak"

Boy, you guys sure are original.

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08-09-2011, 09:50 AM
  #85
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Habs fan.

I think out of those two options we are more likely to miss the playoffs...but we won't miss the playoffs, we just won't be top 3 in the east.

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08-09-2011, 09:54 AM
  #86
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Miss playoffs.

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08-09-2011, 09:57 AM
  #87
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they'll be closer to 100 than missing the playoffs, but none of both scenarios will happen, imo.
okay team with good goaltending.

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08-09-2011, 10:04 AM
  #88
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Price is the reason why they made it last season, and got them to a 7 game series. I say they miss the playoffs in those 2 options, but I'll give credit where it's due and I'll say they'll make the playoffs but not with 100 points or above.

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08-09-2011, 10:06 AM
  #89
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hal gill will hurt the habs next season...should had take his retirement

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08-09-2011, 10:12 AM
  #90
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I guess miss. Habs are a playoff team but every year there seems to be about 10 "playoff teams" per conference and I don't see Montreal taking their division, which will no doubt take 100+ points.

If I had to place a bet though, I wouldn't bet against the Habs making the playoffs.

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08-09-2011, 10:21 AM
  #91
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More likely to miss playoffs

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08-09-2011, 10:22 AM
  #92
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Habs aren't missing the playoffs so I think the 100 points is more than possible considering they have improved since last year.

Montreal has great chemistry right now and have had a couple of years under Martin to perfect his system. The Habs are a well organized/coached club and it has been noted by several opposing players and coaches throughout the last 2 years how difficult it is to beat them.

Also they have a couple million in cap space to pick up some quality deadline acquisitions, a lot of the top teams won't have this luxury as they are right up against the cap.

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08-09-2011, 10:33 AM
  #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 417 View Post
Well this is a refreshing change from previous year's reasons for success..."it was all Halak"

Boy, you guys sure are original.
In all fairness, for the past two years, the Habs have been in the bottom half of the East in goal scoring. That says that the team has a harder time scoring than all of the other teams ahead of them. When you have trouble scoring, you need great goaltending to make up the difference and for the past two years, the Habs have had exceptional goaltending to make up for their scoring deficiencies so while it's discrediting to their forwards to suggest that it was ALL about the goalie, the fact still remains that for the past two years, their goalie situation has been huge to their success. I do think sometimes people overstate that in an attempt to discredit every other player on the Habs team, but taking out the exaggeration, I still think there's a lot of merit to the suggestion that the Habs aren't necessarily a lock for playoffs with an inconsistent or just average goalie between the pipes for them.

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08-09-2011, 10:35 AM
  #94
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Considering that the Habs had 96 pts last season, the question can be rephrased as ''What's more likely, the Habs gaining or losing 4pts?''. Put that way, I say it is more likely that they gain 4pts. The biggest question marks over the Habs are not unique. Every single team needs to be healthy and have a good performance from their goalies. I don't really understand how that can be a question mark for the Habs, but not for the Pens, Rangers or Capitals...

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08-09-2011, 10:50 AM
  #95
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Quote:
Originally Posted by habs_24x View Post
Price is going to get better, not worse.
He's going to do better than sixth in league save percentage? Extraordinarily doubtful. The odds of regression are so overwhelmingly likely that I would be willing to bet my meager life savings that Price will post a lower save% next season. Only four goalies since the lockout has placed top-6 in save% and then improved upon it since: Vokoun, Thomas, Lundqvist, and Luongo. That's four out of what...maybe five hundred? Give or take. Now consider that none of them did it in subsequent seasons, and it makes sense to think the statistical chance is astronomically small.

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Originally Posted by CGG View Post
Not sure why anyone would pick a 24-year old phenomenal goalie to regress, so I say 100 points is far more likely, especially if the Habs are healthier this season.
Not sure why? Here's just a few 24 year old goalies (perhaps not "phenomenal", I suppose, but that's a subjective and unquantifiable term) who regressed going into their 25th year:

-Henrik Lundqvist (.922 -> .917)
-Tomas Vokoun (.910 -> .903)
-Ilya Bryzgalov (.910 -> .907)
-MA Fluery (.921 -> .912)
-Nikolai Khabibulin (.908 -> .900)
-Jose Theodore (.919 -> .909)

Is is so absurd to think that goalie statistics could possibly be subject to high levels of variation, especially considering they are more team-dependent than skaters' statistics?

Quote:
Actually the Habs getting 100 points doesn't require Price to put up better stats, the team just needs an extra 3 or 4 goals for. That's it. They missed 100 points by 4 last year with an injury-riddled team that was offensively challenged while everyone on the team was going through career-lows in scoring. Adding Cole and installing Markov on the point of the PP is good for a lot more than 4 extra goals for.
Again, this assumes that Price's production stays static. It likely won't. That's to say nothing about "injury-riddled", which suggests that Montreal won't have serious injuries this upcoming season, which is just laughable for any team in a full-contact sport

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08-09-2011, 10:58 AM
  #96
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I say it's missing the playoffs for the Smurfs. They just aren't that good, and even if they make it, they'll get bounced in the first round, again.

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08-09-2011, 11:01 AM
  #97
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Originally Posted by HockeyCrazed101 View Post
In all fairness, for the past two years, the Habs have been in the bottom half of the East in goal scoring. That says that the team has a harder time scoring than all of the other teams ahead of them. When you have trouble scoring, you need great goaltending to make up the difference and for the past two years, the Habs have had exceptional goaltending to make up for their scoring deficiencies so while it's discrediting to their forwards to suggest that it was ALL about the goalie, the fact still remains that for the past two years, their goalie situation has been huge to their success. I do think sometimes people overstate that in an attempt to discredit every other player on the Habs team, but taking out the exaggeration, I still think there's a lot of merit to the suggestion that the Habs aren't necessarily a lock for playoffs with an inconsistent or just average goalie between the pipes for them.
Well last time I checked, the goalie was part of the roster wasn't he? Why is it an handicap that the Habs have had goalies who have performed exceptionally? Furthermore, while it's true the goalies have been exceptional, not enough credit is given to the Habs coaching staff which IMO, has them prepared to play almost every night.

Habs have had success because they're well coached, they execute their system very well and benefit from exceptional goaltending and clutch goal scoring.

That's their identity...just like the Flyers and their explosive offense is their identity.

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08-09-2011, 11:16 AM
  #98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WarriorOfGandhi View Post
Not sure why? Here's just a few 24 year old goalies (perhaps not "phenomenal", I suppose, but that's a subjective and unquantifiable term) who regressed going into their 25th year:

-Henrik Lundqvist (.922 -> .917)
-Tomas Vokoun (.910 -> .903)
-Ilya Bryzgalov (.910 -> .907)
-MA Fluery (.921 -> .912)
-Nikolai Khabibulin (.908 -> .900)
-Jose Theodore (.919 -> .909)

Is is so absurd to think that goalie statistics could possibly be subject to high levels of variation, especially considering they are more team-dependent than skaters' statistics?
Not absurd at all, although there's nothing saying that stats can't vary in the other direction and his save percentage could go up. That's great that 6 goalies saw their SP go down when they turned 25, I'm afraid it's all for naught though since Price only turns 24 in August. But even if you did pick the right year, it means absolutely nothing to Carey Price. Where is it written that his career path has to follow that of Tomas Vokoun or Ilya Bryzgalov? Now please post the list of goalies who saw their save percentages go up when they turned 24 or 25, okay thanks.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WarriorOfGandhi View Post
Again, this assumes that Price's production stays static. It likely won't.
So you're saying his production could go up. Okay then.

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Originally Posted by WarriorOfGandhi View Post
That's to say nothing about "injury-riddled", which suggests that Montreal won't have serious injuries this upcoming season, which is just laughable for any team in a full-contact sport
I didn't say they wouldn't have injuries, only that they managed 96 points with a boatload of injuries last season. They will have injuries again this year, but will it be as severe? If you're talking about variability, the same applies to injuries. Are Markov and Gorges likely to miss 115 games between them this season and Maxpac have another broken neck? No. Maybe this year it's Darche and Yannick Weber that get seriously hurt, not Markov. They even have $5 million in cap space to plug holes this season, so if they do lose someone significant, it's not game over.

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Old
08-09-2011, 11:29 AM
  #99
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Originally Posted by CGG View Post
Not absurd at all, although there's nothing saying that stats can't vary in the other direction and his save percentage could go up.
Obviously, but Price's performance was so strong last season it's like suggesting that the Ducks will be better this season because Perry has the chance to improve on a 50-goal season. Nothing against Perry, but I'd bet against him having another sky-high shooting% for the same reason I'd bet against Price having another sky-high save%.

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08-09-2011, 11:35 AM
  #100
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I think it's more likely they miss the playoffs. Not saying they will, but I think they'll be in the dog fight for 7-10.

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