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Old
08-09-2011, 11:11 AM
  #201
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Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
I think the poster is banking on Andrei Markov to lead Montreals offensive attack. Ev en though he's a defenseman, he is the catalyst of the habs offense, without him, it's no surprise our offense struggled. His impact combined with the hopeful emergence of PK from the beginning of the year make a bigger impact than any forward we have.

We'll score more with a healthy Markov, mathman will call it regressing to the mean. I'll call it having better players capable of scoring and the debate will continue for another summer.
For Montreal on even strength, the return of Markov and Pacioretty with the addition of Cole would be big as they are strong ES players. But the biggest factor will be the massive regression to the mean that the Habs are due for next season. They were at the bottom of the league in ES shooting percentage with New Jersey which is something that regresses hard to the mean, while being strong in shot creation which doesn't.

Gomez will be the biggest beneficiary of that, but Eller, Pacioretty, Subban, Weber and Gionta all are poised to have a big jump in ES offense just by bouncing back from abnormally low team on ice shooting percentage.

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08-09-2011, 11:28 AM
  #202
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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
For Montreal on even strength, the return of Markov and Pacioretty with the addition of Cole would be big as they are strong ES players. But the biggest factor will be the massive regression to the mean that the Habs are due for next season. They were at the bottom of the league in ES shooting percentage with New Jersey which is something that regresses hard to the mean, while being strong in shot creation which doesn't.

Gomez will be the biggest beneficiary of that, but Eller, Pacioretty, Subban, Weber and Gionta all are poised to have a big jump in ES offense just by bouncing back from abnormally low team on ice shooting percentage.

I disagree, the biggest factor will be having healthy individuals capable of scoring 5vs5. If injuries occur to key players again this year, we suffer a similar fate.

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08-09-2011, 12:19 PM
  #203
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Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
I disagree, the biggest factor will be having healthy individuals capable of scoring 5vs5. If injuries occur to key players again this year, we suffer a similar fate.
Montreal was one of the best teams in the East at shot/chance generation last year -- which would be counting all their injuries. The main reason they weren't a top-third offensive team at ES really is low shooting percentage.

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08-09-2011, 12:39 PM
  #204
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Sure, but one could also argue that Regehr's complete lack of offense and lack of transition game at least contributes to him being utilized in these situations much more frequently. If he was at all offensive maybe the numbers would change, do you have numbers on icings as well?
I don't, but it stands to reason Regehr would have more simply because you can't ice the puck from the offensive zone. By starting more in the defensive zone you inherently increase the risk of icings.

Besides, and this is me eyeballing it so take it with a suitable grain of salt, but it doesn't necessarily follow that a player who ices the puck more doesn't have a good pass. Players without those skills may elect to clear the puck to center ice by bouncing it off the glass; players who attempt the transition pass will miss a portion of them, resulting in icing calls.

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Also, during Ehrhoff's 35% dzone starts or whatever the numbers are, does he allow a disproportionate amount of goals or even opportunities to those dman who take most of the starts, if not, why do we conclude the eyeball test is wrong?
He faces soft opposition and starts disproportionately in the offensive zone. If he was such a defensive disaster as to allow a lot of opportunities in these circumstances, he'd be MAB.

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We have tangible evidence that Erhhoff is probably close to twice as good as Regehr offensively, where is the evidence for Regehr defensively?
Based on what? Like any offensive D-man, Erhoff does most of his scoring on the PP. He has all of 7 more even-strength points than Regehr, and you have to factor in that he has much more favorable circumstances than Regehr that should result in more offense.

You can't say Erhoff is twice as good offensively than Regehr based on their boxcar stats (points total) and ignore the context; that context is a key factor in the comparison of players, especially these two who have had such different roles.

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08-09-2011, 02:27 PM
  #205
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I don't, but it stands to reason Regehr would have more simply because you can't ice the puck from the offensive zone. By starting more in the defensive zone you inherently increase the risk of icings.

Besides, and this is me eyeballing it so take it with a suitable grain of salt, but it doesn't necessarily follow that a player who ices the puck more doesn't have a good pass. Players without those skills may elect to clear the puck to center ice by bouncing it off the glass; players who attempt the transition pass will miss a portion of them, resulting in icing calls.



He faces soft opposition and starts disproportionately in the offensive zone. If he was such a defensive disaster as to allow a lot of opportunities in these circumstances, he'd be MAB.



Based on what? Like any offensive D-man, Erhoff does most of his scoring on the PP. He has all of 7 more even-strength points than Regehr, and you have to factor in that he has much more favorable circumstances than Regehr that should result in more offense.

You can't say Erhoff is twice as good offensively than Regehr based on their boxcar stats (points total) and ignore the context; that context is a key factor in the comparison of players, especially these two who have had such different roles.
Sure the context is important, but that seems to be completely lost for the guys on defensive side. Are they defensive because they're vastly superior to others, or are the defensive because they have no offense to speak of?

You seem to imply Ehrhoff has the better numbers offensively mainly because he's given more opportunity to do so, pp time ect. Even referenced ES point differential of 7. Would the same not hold true for the flip side potentially. You tip-toed around the fact that Ehrhoff doesn't have any disproportionate numbers defensively to defend the notion he can't defend. Simply he doesn't have to as often because he is better offensively than his teammates or the opposite, the others are better defensively, which in the case of Bieska isn't even true.

If Regehr was somewhat comparable offensively he would likely see his share of offensive zone draws this year, but he won't and Ehrhoff will, is it a reflection of poor defense on Ehrhoffs part or above average offense? I tend to lean towards above average offense, but neither can be proven conclusively. The numbers he put up defensively were actually quite good albeit to weaker competition, so what does it all mean? Not much.

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08-09-2011, 03:19 PM
  #206
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Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
Sure the context is important, but that seems to be completely lost for the guys on defensive side. Are they defensive because they're vastly superior to others, or are the defensive because they have no offense to speak of?
Defense is a skill -- a vital skill -- not just the absence of offense. It's the difference between Regehr and Gill, or between Gorges and Picard.

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You seem to imply Ehrhoff has the better numbers offensively mainly because he's given more opportunity to do so, pp time ect.
Skill is obviously a factor as well, but being good on the PP and being good 5-on-5 are different, albeit related, skills.

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Simply he doesn't have to as often because he is better offensively than his teammates or the opposite, the others are better defensively, which in the case of Bieska isn't even true.
It's a possibility, but coaches generally aren't stupid. If a guy is good defensively he'll get defensive assignments and tough matchups. If he can't handle them, then he won't get them.

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If Regehr was somewhat comparable offensively he would likely see his share of offensive zone draws this year
That's not necessarily true. Regehr Being able to handle tough minutes is generally more valuable than putting up the occasional 5-on-5 point for D-men, so a player who can do it will get the tough minutes regardless of his offensive ability. For the Habs, for example, this meant that Markov would systematically face opposition top lines, even though he was also far and away the best offensive defenseman on the team.

Likewise PK Subban, who won't be accused of being lacking in offensive skills anytime soon, took an increasing load of defensive draws and tough minutes as he established himself as the team's top defenseman during the 2010-2011 season. His offensive skills didn't get worse; simply, he demonstrated his ability to be a top defender, and Martin used him in tougher and tougher minutes until at the end of the season, his offensive zone start ratio was 44% and he was spending most of that time doing top zone starts.

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08-09-2011, 03:26 PM
  #207
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Originally Posted by SabresFan44 View Post
If Montreal finishes ahead of Buffalo I will definitely delete my account next year.

Buffalo was one of the hottest teams in the league without their additions and they make fun of us for over-paying some pretty good names while all they did was a washed up Cole.
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08-09-2011, 03:31 PM
  #208
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Don't bother. Some guy years ago had a very similar quote from him in his signature all year ("If the Penguins make the playoffs, I will delete my account") and lo and behold, the Penguins made the playoffs, and he's still here.

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08-09-2011, 03:31 PM
  #209
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What if we finish ahead of them with the standings equivalent of our foot in the crease?

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08-09-2011, 03:33 PM
  #210
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Originally Posted by hototogisu View Post
Don't bother. Some guy years ago had a very similar quote from him in his signature all year ("If the Penguins make the playoffs, I will delete my account") and lo and behold, the Penguins made the playoffs, and he's still here.
Funny how he mentions Cole is washed up when there has not been any indication of that. Yet he praises his 6 year wonder who never reached 20 goals in his career.

He also forgets the Habs added a top D in Markov (who is better than Ehrhoff and Regher combined) and also adding a great depth D in Gorges.

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08-09-2011, 03:40 PM
  #211
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Don't bother. Some guy years ago had a very similar quote from him in his signature all year ("If the Penguins make the playoffs, I will delete my account") and lo and behold, the Penguins made the playoffs, and he's still here.
I knew I recognized him from somewhere...

http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=370336

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Yeah well this will clear the air hopefully.....here's the deal. I never should have made that in the first place, it was arrogant and cocky of me and I apologize.
At least he learned his lesson.

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08-09-2011, 03:50 PM
  #212
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The guy should get an infraction just for having not learned his lesson

Funny part is the odds of us finishing ahead of Buffalo are much great than the odds of the Pens not making the post that season.

Ainec.

Honestly though he's just as cocky as the dumb sabres fans @ hockeybuzz I was telling you guys about. The ones who said they'd be 1st in the east again next year after letting Campbell, Briere and Drury walk Some of them even said Tim Connolly would replace both Briere and Drury's production and if you don't believe me go to their forums and check back around this time prior to that season.

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08-09-2011, 03:57 PM
  #213
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Originally Posted by Bill McNeal View Post
I knew I recognized him from somewhere...

http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=370336
Holy hell.

Re: Cole, while I think "washed up" is quite obviously a BS overstatement, describing him as "outside his prime" seems a bit more realistic to me and more representative of his probable role on the team. His presence alone is going to be useful. I don't know one person who think he's going to put up 30 goals, and people who contend that's why he was brought in have such a poor understanding of this team that their opinion is close to worthless.

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08-09-2011, 04:55 PM
  #214
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Originally Posted by hototogisu View Post
Don't bother. Some guy years ago had a very similar quote from him in his signature all year ("If the Penguins make the playoffs, I will delete my account") and lo and behold, the Penguins made the playoffs, and he's still here.
That was him too.

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08-09-2011, 05:22 PM
  #215
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That was him too.
Yeah I know, that's why I said not to bother heh.

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08-09-2011, 05:34 PM
  #216
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That's in instant classic right there

We are a better team then Buffalo, I don't care if they're 3 mil over the cap, they still lack skill and finishing abilities up front and that's what's gonna hurt em next season.

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08-09-2011, 05:47 PM
  #217
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Originally Posted by matCH penalty View Post
Holy hell.

Re: Cole, while I think "washed up" is quite obviously a BS overstatement, describing him as "outside his prime" seems a bit more realistic to me and more representative of his probable role on the team. His presence alone is going to be useful. I don't know one person who think he's going to put up 30 goals, and people who contend that's why he was brought in have such a poor understanding of this team that their opinion is close to worthless.
Okay but to me the question is in what way has his on ice play changed in order to refer to him as past prime? This is an assumption. Prime isn't some magic number like 34 where it just ends. It's different from player to player.

His 2010-11 season was very similar to past productions. He's always going to get those 20+ goals it's a known fact, whether he stays healthy enough to get 25+ is what matters with Cole.

He was healthy all season last year. Can't see why all of the sudden he'd be troubled by a nagging injury.

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08-09-2011, 06:48 PM
  #218
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I guess by 'past his prime' I just mean he's becoming older, and older power forwards generally have issues. Don't you love August?

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His 2010-11 season was very similar to past productions. He's always going to get those 20+ goals it's a known fact, whether he stays healthy enough to get 25+ is what matters with Cole.
There's always the "No Staal" argument I suppose, but that's basically my point. I think he'll do fine and provide a useful physical presence. At the same time, I sincerely doubt he'll break 25 goals, and by no means do I think we should (or will) rely on such production. Some fans of other teams talk about the signing as if Martin is basing our entire scoring in 11-12 around Cole having his bones replaced with carbon fiber and becoming a PPG player on a line with a genetically engineered super-Staal, with every other skater playing defence.

I guess what I'm saying is

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08-09-2011, 07:16 PM
  #219
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Funny how he mentions Cole is washed up when there has not been any indication of that. Yet he praises his 6 year wonder who never reached 20 goals in his career.

He also forgets the Habs added a top D in Markov (who is better than Ehrhoff and Regher combined) and also adding a great depth D in Gorges.
I'm not sure if you could say that Markov is better than Ehrhoff and Regher combined but I'd definately take Markov-Gorges over Ehrhoff-Regher as a defensive pairing. Subban-Gill would beat out Myers-Leopold also to compare the top-4.

I'd imagine Montreal is planing to use Gill-Subban much as they did to end last season as the primary shutdown unit, playing against 1st and 2nd lines with a Ozone start% around 45-48%. Markov-Gorges is then the new Hamrlik-Wisneiwski, also facing 1st and 2nd lines but with more offesnive faceoffs. Spacek-Yemelin/Weber can then feast upon the lesser lights like Picard-Subban did to start the year or Spacek-Weber to end it.

Buffalo on the other hand can either build an elite tough minutes pairing with Myers-Regher and use Leopold-Ehrhoff as an offensive unit. Or mix them up to build two decent matchup pairings. As a result, Montreal is much deeper in ability to cover tough assignments, although than hinges heavily on having both Markov and Subban in the lineup to be two-way forces to compliment Gorges and Gill's defensive acumen.

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