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Phillies' Baseball (MLB): National Leeague Eastern Division Champs

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Old
08-12-2011, 06:50 PM
  #301
Jester
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Protest View Post
Its actually nothing like that at all. Its much more like a running back in the NFL having 4 seasons where he rushes for 800 yards, and 1 where he rushes for 1,300 yards. Which one seems out of place? The die comparison is a horrible one because each side has a fixed probability of occurrence.
What was his average yards per rush? Because your counter example *ing blows. Your comparing gross totals v. averages.

Moreover, we're not talking about 1/4 are we. As noted, we're talking about 2 of the last three years, in fact.... and, as you yourself admitted, numbers that are noisy. The reality is that Howard has a couple of years with insane variance the last few years, and a few that are pretty normal.

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Actually, having a runner on first does impact the defense alignment. The 1B has to play on the bag to hold the runner on, and therefore is not hugging the line at the outfield grass.
....the 1B position isn't the *ing shift dude. I've already noted that a BIG part of it has nothing to do with the shift, and everything to do with the 1B. The shift impacting Howard is the 2B in short RF.

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Ok then. How about his .381 BABIP with RISP, which you deemed to be much more important when talking about the shift?
Well, because it is.

And, I think it's an abnormally high number and an indication that he's been a bit lucky. Last year it was .340, year before that .308. He's a career .340 BABIP with RISP.

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08-12-2011, 06:54 PM
  #302
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Originally Posted by Sawdalite View Post
Factored into the mix has to be the fact that Howard follows Utley in the order... this season, until recently when Pence arrived, Howard didn't have the kind of on deck hitter that he had with Werth. Utley would have to see better pitches with Howard waiting on deck... and even more so I would think with when there is already a player on base. teams cannot pitch around Utley very easily, and they certainly don't want to walk him and add another base runner and also possibly move a runner into scoring position with Howard there to pick up the RBI(s).

I don't know if there are any sets of Sabre-stats that take this into account... but it would certainly be nice if there were... and I believe it cannot be ignored in the comparison discussions here.
Yeah, I watched a team intentionally walk Utley to get to Howard this year.

This year looks like a normal Ryan Howard year. Up and down a bit the first half, and then begins to come on strong. Everyone is going to talk about Pence, and forget that Howard has pretty much always been a strong second half performer.

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08-12-2011, 07:15 PM
  #303
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Yeah, I watched a team intentionally walk Utley to get to Howard this year.
I've watched Wilson Valdez pick up a win pitching this year also... while not as unusual, walking Utley to pitch to Howard is bordering that rarity

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This year looks like a normal Ryan Howard year. Up and down a bit the first half, and then begins to come on strong. Everyone is going to talk about Pence, and forget that Howard has pretty much always been a strong second half performer.
I'll be the first to bring up Howards habit of putting up better stats once August rolls around... but we can't ignore his getting better pitches to look at when there is a legitimate threat behind him. With a solid hitter like Pence now set for at lest the next couple of years it will be interesting to see what Ryan will do... Werth was there the last couple seasons so it was basically only this half season over the last few that Howard didn't have a decent batter following him... But, yeah, it will be hard to determine if a hot second half will be more Howard's norm or more a product of Pence allowing him to do it. And we probably will never know how Howard's second half would have been had Rubin not landed Hunter.


Last edited by Sawdalite: 08-12-2011 at 07:23 PM.
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Old
08-12-2011, 08:07 PM
  #304
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yoshimitsu View Post
I'm willing to bet that Victorino continues to outperform Howard moving forward.

For one thing, Howard is in the middle of a steady, precipitous decline. Take a look at his batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage over the last three seasons. Each of them has declined, and by no small margin.



The Howard of 2009 was a completely different player than the Howard we have now. It's not impossible for Howard to rebound, but he'll be 32 to start next season, and he isn't playing for a contract. If Howard's OPS dips under .800, we're looking at, literally, a completely average, middle of the road first baseman who is making $25 million dollars.

The entire situation is looking bleak.
It doesn't look great, but last year an injury was involved at the tail end of the year and this season is not yet complete and those numbers might rise. I don't think "playing for contract" really has much significance to any of this. And still, Shane has been streaky in seasons past, and really should have been capable of hitting like this but hasn't. I need to see he can keep this up before I believe it. No doubt even an .825 OPS going forward would be great from a speedy CF.

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Howard actually should start bunting in certain situations. Because of the defensive alignment, a bunt by Howard would be a free pass to first. Essentially, it would be a walk. The only reason he doesn't do it is because conventional wisdom tells him not to.
Or because he's likely bunted only a handful of times in his life and likely is awful at it. No really. They could definitely work on it. Some managers would actually bite and move SS or 3B further over. The real issue is how deep they play the 2B is, he almost never hits it to even the middle of the field.

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08-12-2011, 09:14 PM
  #305
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08-12-2011, 09:14 PM
  #306
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Nice at-bat, Big Whiffer.

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08-12-2011, 09:17 PM
  #307
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Old
08-12-2011, 09:19 PM
  #308
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This team sucks. Should have sold at the deadline

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Old
08-12-2011, 09:24 PM
  #309
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Not gonna win many games when the opposing pitcher drives in as many runs as your offense.

Pence just looked bad at the plate today. Couldn't lay off Livan's low and away slop. Interesting little stat growing so far that the Phils win when he gets a hit (11-0), and lose when he doesn't (0-2). I wonder how much longer that trend will keep up for.

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Old
08-12-2011, 10:33 PM
  #310
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
What was his average yards per rush? Because your counter example *ing blows. Your comparing gross totals v. averages.
Haha. Dude seriously? My counter example blows, but your roll of the die comparison is just fine?

You also completely missed the point. The point was that when we're talking about sports one season out of 5 can completely be an outlier. It doesn't matter if we're talking totals or averages. So if I said he had 4 seasons of a 3.3 ypc, and 1 of a 4.7 ypc that would have been all fine and dandy? Its the same damn thing, the numbers don't matter. The point is 1 out of 5 in sports can totally be an outlier.

Quote:
Moreover, we're not talking about 1/4 are we. As noted, we're talking about 2 of the last three years, in fact.... and, as you yourself admitted, numbers that are noisy. The reality is that Howard has a couple of years with insane variance the last few years, and a few that are pretty normal.
No, I was originally talking about his averages for the past 4.5 seasons. Which ALL lend themselves to the idea that his numbers are significantly depressed by the shift.

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....the 1B position isn't the *ing shift dude. I've already noted that a BIG part of it has nothing to do with the shift, and everything to do with the 1B. The shift impacting Howard is the 2B in short RF.
No its not the whole shift but its part of the defensive alignment that changes when a man is on first, which is what I said. I never said it was "the shift." I also said some other things that you for some reason ignored.

You tend to do that a lot when we get into a discussion. You eventually start ignoring the crux of my argument and focus on minute things that you can either twist, or counter. Which winds up taking the discussion so far off topic and into a battle of semantics where we're arguing what the definition of "is" is. No one on here wants to read that crap.

Like for instance, you for some reason completely ignored my entire point on Utley.

Or this, which was actually the main point of what I was saying, but you somehow just took the 1b alignment part of it out:

"Regardless, Howard's BABIP from 2007-Present with no one on is .285

With a man on 2nd is .321, same as with a man on 1st.

With RISP its .351"

So having a guy on 2nd or RISP hugely affects the shift, and I showed you Howard's numbers increase in those situations. Yet, you completely ignore that.

See, I address every point you make when we get into these discussions, but you tend to start leaving out a lot of mine.

Quote:
Well, because it is.

And, I think it's an abnormally high number and an indication that he's been a bit lucky. Last year it was .340, year before that .308. He's a career .340 BABIP with RISP.
Yes, and from 2007 to now, the time which the shift has been regularly employed against him, his BABIP with RISP is .351 and .285 with no one on. Am I going to just keep repeating this? Do you think that doesn't matter? Because it seems to me that you said it mattered but yet you're still arguing with me.

In fact, what are you even arguing? Do you actually have a point because I haven't seen one. All I've seen is you try to dump on, and refute everything I've said for no apparent reason. It really looks like you don't have an actually point to your arguments other then to prove me wrong. In which case, I'm wasting my time responding to you.

Let me make it perfectly clear. I think the shift significantly decreases Howard's numbers, and his numbers with men on base compared to his numbers with bases empty, from the time opponents started to shift him, show that.

What do you think?


Last edited by Protest: 08-12-2011 at 11:12 PM.
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Old
08-12-2011, 10:58 PM
  #311
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Phileeguy View Post
Not gonna win many games when the opposing pitcher drives in as many runs as your offense.

Pence just looked bad at the plate today. Couldn't lay off Livan's low and away slop. Interesting little stat growing so far that the Phils win when he gets a hit (11-0), and lose when he doesn't (0-2). I wonder how much longer that trend will keep up for.
I had a bad feeling about this game -- look back a page -- just hope it isn't one of those times when a team gets so hot and then when the bubble bursts it goes deep south for a while before they pull out... seems often the case with the Flyers... hope not for the Phillies in this case.

As for Pence hi equals win/no hit equals loss... You call it a trend... I call it a coincidence over a very small sample in which team was hot and new player was also.

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Old
08-13-2011, 10:13 AM
  #312
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This team sucks. Should have sold at the deadline
Its one game big deal they will win today and u will all be happy agian cant win every game..........

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08-13-2011, 10:56 AM
  #313
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Its one game big deal they will win today and u will all be happy agian cant win every game..........
He was almost certainly joking.

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08-13-2011, 12:37 PM
  #314
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Its one game big deal they will win today and u will all be happy agian cant win every game..........

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08-13-2011, 02:20 PM
  #315
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I know this was soooooo two pages ago, but just to throw it out there, BR has Victorino at 79 runs created this season, Howard at 75. ESPN has them at 75.2 and 73.7, respectively (top two on the team, and only Rollins is within about 25 of them). Slight edge to Shane, but nothing drastic.

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08-13-2011, 03:27 PM
  #316
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Originally Posted by CantSeeColors View Post
I know this was soooooo two pages ago, but just to throw it out there, BR has Victorino at 79 runs created this season, Howard at 75. ESPN has them at 75.2 and 73.7, respectively (top two on the team, and only Rollins is within about 25 of them). Slight edge to Shane, but nothing drastic.
I believe we can all appreciate both without taking anything away from either... I hope this is the breakout season for Shane and he follows up with several more.

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08-13-2011, 03:43 PM
  #317
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John Lannan is pitching for the Nats tonight. Roy Oswalt is pitching at Citizens Bank Park and the Phillies are at home. I really hoping for a win tonight

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08-13-2011, 04:58 PM
  #318
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Originally Posted by bleedorange View Post
Its one game big deal they will win today and u will all be happy agian cant win every game..........

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08-13-2011, 11:23 PM
  #319
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This team is awesome. I can't believe some you actually wanted to sell at the deadline.

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08-13-2011, 11:45 PM
  #320
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This team is awesome. I can't believe some you actually wanted to sell at the deadline.
I'm pretty sure they were joking.

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08-13-2011, 11:48 PM
  #321
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Originally Posted by o Hamhuis 2 x View Post
I'm pretty sure they were joking.
Quote:
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This team sucks. Should have sold at the deadline

I didn't think the was needed

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Old
08-13-2011, 11:51 PM
  #322
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I didn't think the was needed
Hey you never know on here

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08-14-2011, 10:36 AM
  #323
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Todays game cancelled.

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08-14-2011, 10:59 AM
  #324
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Better jersey to get signed?:

Cole Hamels' 2009 World Series Jersey Team-Issued
Cole Hamels 2009 Opening Day Gold Stiched Jersey (Slightly worn by myself)

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08-14-2011, 11:27 AM
  #325
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Better jersey to get signed?:

Cole Hamels' 2009 World Series Jersey Team-Issued
Cole Hamels 2009 Opening Day Gold Stiched Jersey (Slightly worn by myself)
I'd say the World Series jersey.

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