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Hockey Prospectus' Top 10 Rangers prospects

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Old
08-12-2011, 11:47 PM
  #76
Inferno
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AJBergy86 View Post
What he is trying to say is that the Red Wings consistently draft 25-30 every year. They just do not have a significant chance to get a top prospect due to their draft position.

Sure they draft well, but the fact that they have been drafting so late every year, their prospect pool would not be as deep as a team that has been drafting in the top 10 consistently every year.
no he isn't he just went on a diatribe about how awesome the Redwings best players are...yes, we know that...obviously. but my entire post was to say that the Red Wings havent developed any impact players since 2000 sans Johan Franzen...thats really just a fact. their farm system has been pimped to death, but its not all that great, and its CERTAINLY not one of the best in the league.

HF has them as 12, which I feel is a bit generous...id probably have them in the 15-18 range, but whatever.

If he was saying that, i would totally agree, and thats really the point i was trying to make, and what the original post who Jersey Girl took a dump on was trying to say, and what I was agreeing with....Detroit DOESNT have a great farm system....and part of that is BECAUSE they draft so low...

these were Jersey Girls exact words...

Quote:
The Red Wings can't have good prospects because they've been drafting outside the top 20? Tell me you did not just say that.

And i WILL say that...they dont have a farm system BECAUSE they draft outside of the top 20...they dont have any impact players outside of Franzen in huge part BECAUSE they draft outside the top 20....they got incredibly lucky with Zetterberg and Datsyuk...

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08-12-2011, 11:50 PM
  #77
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Thomas may bust. He may be a stud. He also may become the next grachev, meaning he'll get lapped by younger prospects and be given up on before even getting a legit chance in the NHL.

Now listen: I love Thomas as a prospect. But he's the flavor of the month right now. People are pencilling him in over Zuccarello who scored half a point per game as a rookie in a limited role. They're also anticipating him being better than Kreider. This is the same thing that happened to grachev when Kreider was drafted. It's what happened to Sauer. We all need to relax and let these prospects develop on their own unique curves/paths/ terms. We have a lot of good prospects. And even if they all reach their potential, there likely won't be spots/room for all of them on the rangers.


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08-13-2011, 06:24 AM
  #78
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Originally Posted by Inferno272 View Post
how this post has anything to do with how the Red Wings have drafted due to their drafting position...i will never know...
Seemed pretty simple to understand. Until Detroit is forced to ice a team minus their best players there will be no way to realistically judge the state of their franchise.

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08-13-2011, 06:36 AM
  #79
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Originally Posted by HagelinForPresident View Post
When will you stop arguing?

Did I say I know more than Pronman? No I didn't, but others do, such as MANY other scouts.

Is it possible that Pronman is a god damn idiot? Yes and the possibility is more of a reality, he works for ESPN.

Again, I acknowledged the Isles have better prospects, but we are closer than #20 to #2. You keep leaving that out of your responses Any Islander fan on the Isles board will tell you that we have a very close prospect pool to their's.

Using logic as a guide is not realistic when everyone including other scouts and scouting sites have the Rangers ranked in the top 15, if not the top 10.

But yea, keep telling me that St Croix is better than Thomas. Keep telling me that the Red Wings have better prospects than the Oilers. Keep telling me all this redundant info that is purely based on your own logic, rather than majority of other peoples' opinions, purely based off the fact that he is a "scout". He isn't a scout. He is a speculative retard.
Let's spin your own logic back at you.

You say the Oilers obviously have great prospects because of where they have been drafting.

Then you mock that someone says the Islanders have a clearly better prospect pool than the Rangers, even though the Isles have been drafting near the top for years.

Your position that things are obvious to discern going forward is ill-conceived, to me.

Calling someone a retard because they disagree wirh opinions you have formed based on hometown management demonstrates a lack of understanding of what is self-promotion and what is patting oneself on the back.

To not understand that aside from the most elite prospects, it's all a crapshoot, is something you will one day figure out. It's near impossible to predict if one player will beat another at a higher level of competition.

Professional sports teams invest millions of dollars in this and have not figured it out, but you think you have.

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08-13-2011, 09:56 AM
  #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chosen View Post
Let's spin your own logic back at you.

You say the Oilers obviously have great prospects because of where they have been drafting.

Then you mock that someone says the Islanders have a clearly better prospect pool than the Rangers, even though the Isles have been drafting near the top for years.

Your position that things are obvious to discern going forward is ill-conceived, to me.

Calling someone a retard because they disagree wirh opinions you have formed based on hometown management demonstrates a lack of understanding of what is self-promotion and what is patting oneself on the back.

To not understand that aside from the most elite prospects, it's all a crapshoot, is something you will one day figure out. It's near impossible to predict if one player will beat another at a higher level of competition.

Professional sports teams invest millions of dollars in this and have not figured it out, but you think you have.
Bro are you ****ing blind??? When did I say we had a better prospect pool than the Isles... Omg see a doctor please. I said we are closer to them than #20 to #2. If they are #2, we are #7ish, if we are #20, they should be #15ish. Idk where u saw me mocking the Isles position... I was saying that if the Isles are here, we deserve to be here, not #20. Get your reading comprehension checked please.

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08-13-2011, 10:26 AM
  #81
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chosen View Post
It's funny to see fans who have never seen a player play belittling anyone's predictions on the matter.

I don't know if the writer will turn out to me more accurate than those criticizing him, but from reading what he wrote he seems to have a far greater depth of knowledge about these players, whether it be first-hand or not, than most of the posters goofing on him.

Also, those lambasting him don't seem to understand that if it was that easy to predict who will turn out to be what, every GM would make the exact right pick in every round. Since we know that this isn't even close to the truth, it's hysterical that people posting here think they know the real "truth" about all of this.
The main problem with his ranking I have is having St. Croix way above Miller (which is downright retarded, having seen both multiple times) and having Thomas so low and saying he projects to be an average third liner.

I've probably seen 30 or so games of Thomas and anyone who thinks of those weaknesses and makes that projection... well, I'd wonder if he's seen him play more than a game or two (probably saw him on an off night).

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08-13-2011, 10:49 AM
  #82
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reading tons of good stuff on Miller. At this pt seems like a good pick. If this kid, Kreider, Thomas can keep it up and be Rangers in the next 2-3 yrs its going to make battle for spots real interesting

not to mention Hagelin and even Fasth, Lindberg. Team is set at C for a while wtih BR, Steps, AA so it was smart to get good young wingers in the draft.

I know this yr has not started yet but looking to next in my opinion:

C- Richards, Anisimov, Stepan, Rupp
RW- Gaborik, Callahan, X factor, Prust(resigned).....X factor is Thomas........I like Zuke but think he's moved
LW- Dubinsky, X factor, Boyle, Hagelin..........Kreider is the X factor.......I think Hagelin makes it too

Would still leave Miller developing, Fasth, Lindberg upfront.

we are going to see the young D this yr. set in G.......I would resign Biron as the backup


Last edited by Vitto79: 08-13-2011 at 11:05 AM.
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08-13-2011, 11:21 AM
  #83
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Originally Posted by Inferno272 View Post
no he isn't he just went on a diatribe about how awesome the Redwings best players are...yes, we know that...obviously. but my entire post was to say that the Red Wings havent developed any impact players since 2000 sans Johan Franzen...thats really just a fact. their farm system has been pimped to death, but its not all that great, and its CERTAINLY not one of the best in the league.

HF has them as 12, which I feel is a bit generous...id probably have them in the 15-18 range, but whatever.

If he was saying that, i would totally agree, and thats really the point i was trying to make, and what the original post who Jersey Girl took a dump on was trying to say, and what I was agreeing with....Detroit DOESNT have a great farm system....and part of that is BECAUSE they draft so low...

these were Jersey Girls exact words...




And i WILL say that...they dont have a farm system BECAUSE they draft outside of the top 20...they dont have any impact players outside of Franzen in huge part BECAUSE they draft outside the top 20....they got incredibly lucky with Zetterberg and Datsyuk...
Yea JerseyGirl took a dump on my post cuz she misinterpreted it. Also, he was referring to me when he was talking about "what he was trying to say", not Chosen.

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08-14-2011, 01:30 AM
  #84
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Originally Posted by HagelinForPresident View Post
Bro are you ****ing blind??? When did I say we had a better prospect pool than the Isles... Omg see a doctor please. I said we are closer to them than #20 to #2. If they are #2, we are #7ish, if we are #20, they should be #15ish. Idk where u saw me mocking the Isles position... I was saying that if the Isles are here, we deserve to be here, not #20. Get your reading comprehension checked please.
Your incessant personal insults and use of childish icons not withstanding, the fact that you think there is exact science in appraising prospects, makes me believe that you shouldn't be questioning anyone's intelligence.

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08-14-2011, 08:03 AM
  #85
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This ranking has nothing to do with me or HF. I wrote for Hockey Prospectus for one month when they started out. We had "editorial differences" and I quickly left. Some of the analytical work they do there is excellent though and I thoroughly enjoy reading their statistical analysis, although I don't always agree with its applicability to the game in the same way it is used in baseball.

As far as I know Pronman lives in Florida and I don't know how many junior games he sees in person.


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08-14-2011, 10:41 AM
  #86
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Originally Posted by chosen View Post
Your incessant personal insults and use of childish icons not withstanding, the fact that you think there is exact science in appraising prospects, makes me believe that you shouldn't be questioning anyone's intelligence.
Insults aside you do seem to ave a huge problem comprehending what is said to you and keep making stuff up that people don't say. Perhaps you';re so busy defending far out opinions that you don't know how to read actual facts without making up your own. Also interesting it seems you have spent all your time telling people how they should interpret opinions...in that case shouldn''t you leave them to form their own opinions about this guy's opinion? Or do you only abide by the "Do as I say not as I do" rule?

You've offered nothing in support of his opinion or against it while plenty offer reasons why this seems like trash including the St. Croix/J.T. Miller thing which flies in the face of not just these boards but 4 rounds of every single NHL teams professional scouts drafting knowledge. Not hard to understand why people are crapping all over him. Still I liked some of his analysis. I just don't know whether any of it is actually worth anything. Logic and example would lean towards no

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08-14-2011, 12:01 PM
  #87
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Originally Posted by chosen View Post
Your incessant personal insults and use of childish icons not withstanding, the fact that you think there is exact science in appraising prospects, makes me believe that you shouldn't be questioning anyone's intelligence.
Well twice I had to explain my name for you, because the first time clearly wasn't enough, you still brought my name up as a reason why I overrate prospects, which is completely false. Then you clearly couldn't read, because I said the thing about the Isles ranking and ours about 3 times and you say I'm bashing their rank, when I'm not at all, which was your argument for my inconsistent comments, which are not inconsistent at all, only to you. As the poster above said, you keep making things up that I never say, ignore what I do say, and give no reason as to why you are correct. I'm sorry if I "insulted" you, but your posts have become enough. They are flat out wrong because they criticize my thinking in a way which I am not thinking. So yea it gets annoying having to reply to your comments that make no sense in response to my previous comments.

Also, when did I ever say there was an exact science in appraising prospects... Saying that the Red Wings shouldn't be #1 because since they've been drafting outside the top 20 for years now, there prospect pool is average to mediocre at best? Saying that the Oilers who have been drafting top players for years now, should be top 5 and not 16 is an exact science? This is what we mean, you keep saying things about us that we never say. I'm sorry but I don't think Calle Jarnkrok should be the #1 prospect on a team that is supposedly ranked #1 in prospects... Now that is not a diss to him, he is a damn good prospect, I'd love to have him, but to be #1 on the #1 prospect pool in the NHL, that is a BIG stretch. That would almost be saying he is a top 5 prospect in the NHL. Please stop arguing. It will only do us all a favor.


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08-14-2011, 12:29 PM
  #88
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Originally Posted by Vito Andolini View Post
http://www.hockeysfuture.com/article...p20_prospects/

Prospect ranking from September 2006.

Ryan Callahan appears in slot 18, while Nigel Dawes appears in slot 4. If you could have chosen one of them back then, who would you have chosen? How about now?
Great post. This shows that it is very difficult to predict how a prospect will do at the NHL level. Back then, Nigel Dawes coming off that great WJC was the shiny new prospect but 5 years later Callahan is the MUCH better NHL player

Who knows... a player such as Andrew Yogan or Steven Fogarty will be the MUCH better NHL player than Christian Thomas or even Chris Kreider in 5 years.

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08-14-2011, 12:34 PM
  #89
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Great post. This shows that it is very difficult to predict how a prospect will do at the NHL level. Back then, Nigel Dawes coming off that great WJC was the shiny new prospect but 5 years later Callahan is the MUCH better NHL player

Who knows... a player such as Andrew Yogan or Steven Fogarty will be the MUCH better NHL player than Christian Thomas or even Chris Kreider in 5 years.
That is very true, but when you rank a prospect, you do it logically. Dawes was rightfully placed ahead of Callahan at the time. Now Callahan is the better player, but you can't use 5 years later as an argument for rankings that were 5 years ago. Like I said, at the time, Dawes was rightfully predicted to be better than Callahan because of his Junior stats. Now, St Croix could very well be the better NHLer than Thomas, but that doesn't mean Thomas shouldn't be ranked ahead of him right now.

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08-14-2011, 01:12 PM
  #90
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Originally Posted by msv957 View Post
Great post. This shows that it is very difficult to predict how a prospect will do at the NHL level. Back then, Nigel Dawes coming off that great WJC was the shiny new prospect but 5 years later Callahan is the MUCH better NHL player

Who knows... a player such as Andrew Yogan or Steven Fogarty will be the MUCH better NHL player than Christian Thomas or even Chris Kreider in 5 years.
Maybe this is a good time for me to go over how I rate and rank the players. The first is the number that I believe is their upside. With forwards, 8.0 would be a first line player, 7.0 for second line, 6.0 for third line player. The second is the letter, which is where they are in their development toward reaching their potential.

Dawes had the potential of being a second liner. If he was not a top six player, he was not going to make it, which he eventually did not. The B says that he was more likely than not to become a second line player. In the Fall of 2006, which actually was before the 2006-07 season, it looked like Callahan was going to be a good third line player, which to me was about a 40 point per season player. By the Spring of 2007, when he had played most of a professional season, he went to a 7.0. It is very rare for me to change the rating on a player more than a half point up or down over the years, but Callahan showed almost immediately that he had more potential than we expected. He was a late bloomer and he and his camp knew it, which is why when he was not offered an NHL ELC, he went back to Guelph.

Callahan went to a 6.5A in the Fall of 2007, ranked just above Dawes. I am happy with him there, although that story is not completely written. He looks like a true second liner, but we will all see over the next few years.

Sometimes players are developing well for the level they are at and then they fall back. We lower their letter at that point and they can drop pretty drastically on the Top 20. Then they take a leap forward at the next level. They go back up on the list. The Top 20 is incredibly fluid and when you have many guys that are second to third line, one could wind up top 5 and the other 16-20.

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08-14-2011, 02:14 PM
  #91
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Originally Posted by JimmyStart View Post
Insults aside you do seem to ave a huge problem comprehending what is said to you and keep making stuff up that people don't say. Perhaps you';re so busy defending far out opinions that you don't know how to read actual facts without making up your own. Also interesting it seems you have spent all your time telling people how they should interpret opinions...in that case shouldn''t you leave them to form their own opinions about this guy's opinion? Or do you only abide by the "Do as I say not as I do" rule?

You've offered nothing in support of his opinion or against it while plenty offer reasons why this seems like trash including the St. Croix/J.T. Miller thing which flies in the face of not just these boards but 4 rounds of every single NHL teams professional scouts drafting knowledge. Not hard to understand why people are crapping all over him. Still I liked some of his analysis. I just don't know whether any of it is actually worth anything. Logic and example would lean towards no
Talk about missing the point. It is my stance that calling someone a retard because they have a different view of a cloudy future is ridiculous.

The poster is entitled to his opinion, but to dismiss a different opinion as retarded, because he knows facts that don't exist seems pretty illogical to me. As illogical as criticizing me for disagreeing with someone elae' conventional wisdom.


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08-14-2011, 02:18 PM
  #92
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To Hagelin,

You admit it is not a science, yet call other opinions retarded. To me, you are the one operating outside of the realm of logic.


Last edited by chosen: 08-14-2011 at 04:04 PM.
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08-14-2011, 02:21 PM
  #93
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Originally Posted by Leslie Treff View Post
Maybe this is a good time for me to go over how I rate and rank the players. The first is the number that I believe is their upside. With forwards, 8.0 would be a first line player, 7.0 for second line, 6.0 for third line player. The second is the letter, which is where they are in their development toward reaching their potential.

Dawes had the potential of being a second liner. If he was not a top six player, he was not going to make it, which he eventually did not. The B says that he was more likely than not to become a second line player. In the Fall of 2006, which actually was before the 2006-07 season, it looked like Callahan was going to be a good third line player, which to me was about a 40 point per season player. By the Spring of 2007, when he had played most of a professional season, he went to a 7.0. It is very rare for me to change the rating on a player more than a half point up or down over the years, but Callahan showed almost immediately that he had more potential than we expected. He was a late bloomer and he and his camp knew it, which is why when he was not offered an NHL ELC, he went back to Guelph.

Callahan went to a 6.5A in the Fall of 2007, ranked just above Dawes. I am happy with him there, although that story is not completely written. He looks like a true second liner, but we will all see over the next few years.

Sometimes players are developing well for the level they are at and then they fall back. We lower their letter at that point and they can drop pretty drastically on the Top 20. Then they take a leap forward at the next level. They go back up on the list. The Top 20 is incredibly fluid and when you have many guys that are second to third line, one could wind up top 5 and the other 16-20.
Exactly. Prospects can change their perceived upside very quickly, Dubinsky and Callahan are the poster boys of this. And like I had guessed earlier, a year later Callahan was in fact considered a better prospect then Dawes, and it doesn't make you any more incorrect a year earlier.

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08-14-2011, 02:47 PM
  #94
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To Hagelin,

You admit it is not a science, yet call other opinions retarded. To me, you are the operating outside of the realm of logic.
I am calling you retarded not for your opinion, but for your non-stop replies back to me that make no sense because they are the opposite of what I'm saying. You said I am bashing the Isles prospect pool, which I was doing the exact opposite of, and you brought up my name twice after I told you what it meant already. That is the part that was annoying. Your arguments made no sense because they were based off what you thought of my posts, which were completely wrong.

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08-14-2011, 02:49 PM
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Oh my god, just stop.

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08-14-2011, 03:54 PM
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Exactly. Prospects can change their perceived upside very quickly, Dubinsky and Callahan are the poster boys of this. And like I had guessed earlier, a year later Callahan was in fact considered a better prospect then Dawes, and it doesn't make you any more incorrect a year earlier.
Exactly, a player such as Yogan can pass Thomas and Kreider very quickly in the future rankings. The odds are it wont happen but it definately can. Prospects such as Grachev and Sangs were the golden prospects 2-3 years ago and now they are not in the organization. It seems some prospects develop and some don't. It is just the way it is. For all we know, Kreider is out of this organization in 2 years and some unexpected prospect makes the Ranger roster and become Callahan Part 2.

It is almost impossible to pencil in prospects onto the future NHL roster.. Heck, Brendl and Lundmark were the supposed saviors from the 1999 draft. They were very highly regarded.

Gordie.... Just keep drafting the gems in any round!

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08-14-2011, 04:12 PM
  #97
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Gordie.... Just keep drafting the gems in any round!
I sure wish Gordie would draft a "gem" in the 1st round, because thats how teams truly get better.

5 years on the job and nothing definitive as of yet.

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08-14-2011, 06:33 PM
  #98
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Originally Posted by Bleed Ranger Blue View Post
I sure wish Gordie would draft a "gem" in the 1st round, because thats how teams truly get better.

5 years on the job and nothing definitive as of yet.
It doesn't matter as long as Gordie can draft gems like Stepan in the 2nd round and Anisimov in 2nd round

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08-14-2011, 06:38 PM
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It doesn't matter as long as Gordie can draft gems like Stepan in the 2nd round and Anisimov in 2nd round
Players with (realistically) 2nd line upside? How long until that becomes redundant?

Things have not gone particularly well in the first round under Clark's tenure and yes, it does matter - it matters a lot.

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08-14-2011, 06:43 PM
  #100
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Players with (realistically) 2nd line upside? How long until that becomes redundant?

Things have not gone particularly well in the first round under Clark's tenure and yes, it does matter - it matters a lot.
Why don't we wait until we see how Kreider and McIlrath turn out before making that judgement. Drafting well is hard enough, drafting well when you are picking outside the top 10 because you're a good team, is even harder. The Penguins are who they are because they sucked (Crosby). Same with the Caps (Ovechkin). It's hard, lets see how our current 1st round prospects pan out. Kreider IMO, has Ranger fans buzzing like we've never buzzed in a while. having him with Richards and Gaborik could be an incredible sight.

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