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Value NYR-NJD blockbuster Stepan + Larsson as principals

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Old
08-20-2011, 08:48 PM
  #151
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Originally Posted by bernmeister View Post
Be my guest.
But again, I NEVER said he would be a 90 pt player in the first season.

The question should be something like:
Allowing for a reasonable minimum transition period to break in to the NHL, will Chris Kreider then soon enough be a 90 point player for NYR?
I'm not even saying in his first season. I never even said first season. How delusional are you? I mean throughout his whole career. He just doesn't have the skill to hit 90 points in a season. He isn't an elite talent.

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08-20-2011, 08:54 PM
  #152
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Originally Posted by JimmyStart View Post
The Devs gave up a nice little pckage for Kovie who had already openly turned down a 100 mil dollar offer. It was the trade deadline.

Parise has the full year and just agreed to a deal meaning he will command even more than Kovie did. ...
If I understsand you correctly, you are restating that he signed for one year, which makes my point.

Did you somehow otherwise mean to changed the parameters by saying "Parise ... just agreed to a deal ..." though you don't specify terms and significantly, length.

That is a whole different topic worthy of discussion.
We are talking about what I currently understand the situation to actually be:
Parise, 1 year only, then he's UFA.

Parise, let any player, commands based on skill, projected value increse or decrease, intangibles, and length and payout of the contract (also cap hit).

I will respond to your other points after this topic is exhausted.

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08-20-2011, 09:17 PM
  #153
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Originally Posted by That Stepan Guy View Post
I'm not even saying in his first season. I never even said first season. How delusional are you? I mean throughout his whole career. He just doesn't have the skill to hit 90 points in a season. He isn't an elite talent.
Set this down for posterity.
Let's do the poll, I accept your lowered bar of whether or not he'll EVER get 90 (barring injury).

I think it should be a separate thread.

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08-20-2011, 10:20 PM
  #154
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Originally Posted by bernmeister View Post
If I understsand you correctly, you are restating that he signed for one year, which makes my point.

Did you somehow otherwise mean to changed the parameters by saying "Parise ... just agreed to a deal ..." though you don't specify terms and significantly, length.

That is a whole different topic worthy of discussion.
We are talking about what I currently understand the situation to actually be:
Parise, 1 year only, then he's UFA.

Parise, let any player, commands based on skill, projected value increse or decrease, intangibles, and length and payout of the contract (also cap hit).

I will respond to your other points after this topic is exhausted.
K lemme explain this even tho it is very easy to grasp...
Sean Avery signed a 4 year deal...he has one full year left

Parise just signed a 1 year deal...he has a full year l;eft...hence why I differentiated. It shows he is possibly willing to work with NJ to sign a deal so they may not be as desperate to trade him like Atlanta was after Kovie rejected their 100 mil while the organization went under.

LOL what ese did I expect from the proposer of such amazing trades

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08-21-2011, 12:34 AM
  #155
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i can't see NJ trading Larsson at all. like you said, he could be replacing Neidermeyer (no chance in hell MDZ could ever fill those boots) and if they are looking to him to be that player, 1) would you really want to even think about trading him? 2) even if you did, it's not gonna be for no 2nd/3rd line sophmore center and his questionable offensive blue-liner friend (and what ever garbage you tack on). 3) and to the Rangers?!? 4) If you thought you had the second coming of Rob Neidermeyer at a young and affordable age and you were the armpit of metro area sports, wouldn't you hold on to that gold nugget? I made this point already but it's worth making again. If they don't really think Larsson has Neidermeyer potential, they will at least make you think so so you will have to over-pay to get him. And overpay you will. If you go to the trade boards 1) All non-Ranger fans will mercilessly chew you out for a bad offer or 2) All Ranger fans will mercilessly chew you out for overpaying. Lose Lose IMO. Just drop it.

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08-21-2011, 04:22 AM
  #156
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Wish Del Zotto was a Devil .... But we got Larrrrsen***

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08-21-2011, 08:44 AM
  #157
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bernmeister View Post
Be my guest.
But again, I NEVER said he would be a 90 pt player in the first season.

The question should be something like:
Allowing for a reasonable minimum transition period to break in to the NHL, will Chris Kreider then soon enough be a 90 point player for NYR?
I'm not sure why I'm even posting in this ridiculous thread, but anyway. Do you realize that there were only 5 90 point players in the NHL last year? Hell, Ovechkin didn't even crack 90, and even if I give you Ovie, Malkin and Sid who all had off years for one reason or another, we're still talking only 8 guys in the league who scored at that rate.

There were 7 in 09-10
... and 08-09.
8 in 07-08.

So, do I think that at some point in his career Kreider will be a top 10 scorer in the league? The answer is a resounding NO. If he ends up putting up 60-70 points a couple of times we should all be doing backflips.

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08-21-2011, 01:51 PM
  #158
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Am I actually seeing people suggest Larsson is the next Lidstrom??? Those are pretty lofty expectations. They don't even play alike, Larsson is the next Hedman or Mattias Ohlund in his prime years.

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08-21-2011, 05:00 PM
  #159
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Originally Posted by EddardStark View Post
However, where is the chemistry in that line? Absolute zero. A Canadian, an American and a Slovak. Meaning they've never once played all together.
Leclair-Lindros-Renberg

An American, a Canadian, and a Swede. All who had never played together at one point.

What a terrible, terrible experiment that was.

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08-22-2011, 10:39 AM
  #160
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Originally Posted by SMantzas View Post
hahaha *LARSSON is worth way more than the healthy scratch/ AHLer MDZ and a possible second line player in Derek Stepan
. The Rangers have no need for a d-man; even one with Larsson's potential. And that's all it is right now. And Stepan has already proven at 20 years old that he is a keeper. Why add to our strength and create a hole at center?

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08-22-2011, 11:27 AM
  #161
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Originally Posted by JimmyStart View Post
K lemme explain this even tho it is very easy to grasp...
Sean Avery signed a 4 year deal...he has one full year left

Parise just signed a 1 year deal...he has a full year l;eft...hence why I differentiated. It shows he is possibly willing to work with NJ to sign a deal so they may not be as desperate to trade him like Atlanta was after Kovie rejected their 100 mil while the organization went under.

LOL what ese did I expect from the proposer of such amazing trades
Avery????

It's not hard to grasp.
Parise is currently at 1 year and thereafter impending UFA; his value is cut, but can be increased IF AND WHEN Jersey adds years, assuming Parise is amenable, and both agree for him to be traded.

At that point the cost of what you have to give to get Parise may exceed the benefit of obtaining him.

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08-22-2011, 11:49 AM
  #162
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Originally Posted by Synergy27 View Post
I'm not sure why I'm even posting in this ridiculous thread, but anyway. Do you realize that there were only 5 90 point players in the NHL last year? Hell, Ovechkin didn't even crack 90, and even if I give you Ovie, Malkin and Sid who all had off years for one reason or another, we're still talking only 8 guys in the league who scored at that rate.

There were 7 in 09-10
... and 08-09.
8 in 07-08.

So, do I think that at some point in his career Kreider will be a top 10 scorer in the league? The answer is a resounding NO. If he ends up putting up 60-70 points a couple of times we should all be doing backflips.
I'm estimating realistically 3-5 years maximum (again, barring injury) for transition and development. It also depends a lot on who his linemates are. In the same way it helped Ruth to have Gehrig batting cleanup so they were limited in pitching around him, the more awesome the rest of the line, the more it spreads out the defense and helps the whole line. I assume that they will make every effort to complement Kreider with the best forwards possible. (I think to even further maximize that speed, they will consider him at C, so his linemates in such case would be wingers.)

Best case scenario is he will have done this by no later than 24ish, provides him with upwards of 10 years to make this mark.

I believe that at sometime during those 10 years he will do something like 35G + 55A .

So yeah, I see it's reasonably possible.

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08-22-2011, 01:24 PM
  #163
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A year ago Larsson was the concensus #1; some had him going 2nd. Why did he drop to #4? Watching the world juniors he didn't stand out. He is talented but all this Lidstrom stuff is crazy. Let him play in the league before he is compared to possibly the greatest D man of all time.

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08-22-2011, 01:43 PM
  #164
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Originally Posted by bernmeister View Post
I'm estimating realistically 3-5 years maximum (again, barring injury) for transition and development. It also depends a lot on who his linemates are. In the same way it helped Ruth to have Gehrig batting cleanup so they were limited in pitching around him, the more awesome the rest of the line, the more it spreads out the defense and helps the whole line. I assume that they will make every effort to complement Kreider with the best forwards possible. (I think to even further maximize that speed, they will consider him at C, so his linemates in such case would be wingers.)

Best case scenario is he will have done this by no later than 24ish, provides him with upwards of 10 years to make this mark.

I believe that at sometime during those 10 years he will do something like 35G + 55A .

So yeah, I see it's reasonably possible.
How do you see Kreider getting 55 A when he has proven time and time again he is primarily a goal scorer? If he gets 35 G ever, let alone any 55 assists, I'll be incredibly happy. His hockey IQ is lacking. We should be hoping really really hard that he'll become a more defensively responsible Kessel.

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08-22-2011, 01:48 PM
  #165
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Originally Posted by bernmeister View Post
I'm estimating realistically 3-5 years maximum (again, barring injury) for transition and development. It also depends a lot on who his linemates are. In the same way it helped Ruth to have Gehrig batting cleanup so they were limited in pitching around him, the more awesome the rest of the line, the more it spreads out the defense and helps the whole line. I assume that they will make every effort to complement Kreider with the best forwards possible. (I think to even further maximize that speed, they will consider him at C, so his linemates in such case would be wingers.)

Best case scenario is he will have done this by no later than 24ish, provides him with upwards of 10 years to make this mark.

I believe that at sometime during those 10 years he will do something like 35G + 55A .

So yeah, I see it's reasonably possible.
The biggest negative thrown against Kreider is his hockey sense. His college career consists of him getting 9 and 13 assists in 40 and 32 games respectively. His Team USA career has him combined for 5 assists in 26 games.

Where do you see evidence that he would make a good center(the forward position that needs hockey sense the most) let alone be able to put up 55 assists at the nhl level? You are probably the only person I've seen to give him such high playmaking potential so I'm curious how you would of formed this opinion when all scouting and production says otherwise so far.

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08-22-2011, 01:50 PM
  #166
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Originally Posted by iamitter View Post
How do you see Kreider getting 55 A when he has proven time and time again he is primarily a goal scorer? If he gets 35 G ever, let alone any 55 assists, I'll be incredibly happy. His hockey IQ is lacking. We should be hoping really really hard that he'll become a more defensively responsible Kessel.
Kreider is very good defensively. The question is whether he can offensively reach Kessel's status. Having a Kessel-lite 6'3", 220 lb Kreider on a line with Richards and Gaborik would be amazing

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08-22-2011, 02:17 PM
  #167
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Originally Posted by Bardof425 View Post
A year ago Larsson was the concensus #1; some had him going 2nd. Why did he drop to #4? Watching the world juniors he didn't stand out. He is talented but all this Lidstrom stuff is crazy. Let him play in the league before he is compared to possibly the greatest D man of all time.
Exactly!
And this is why his talent has to be rated on a reasonably human basis as is now, before playing any games, as to an artificially high out of this world basis he may very well show -- someday, though who knows when.

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08-22-2011, 02:29 PM
  #168
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Originally Posted by Fireonk View Post
The biggest negative thrown against Kreider is his hockey sense. His college career consists of him getting 9 and 13 assists in 40 and 32 games respectively. His Team USA career has him combined for 5 assists in 26 games.

Where do you see evidence that he would make a good center (the forward position that needs hockey sense the most) let alone be able to put up 55 assists at the nhl level? You are probably the only person I've seen to give him such high playmaking potential so I'm curious how you would of formed this opinion when all scouting and production says otherwise so far.
1. Hockey sense can theoretically be learned, assuming you are right as to critics and they are right as to Kreider. Could I be wrong? Could this be another Grachev? While it is possible, I don't think so. Just because a guy like Stepan has great poise and superior hockey sense as a very strong suit, it doesn't mean others who are at a proper level of development don't have it at all.

2. I thought I read some where on the boards that Kreider's production is artificially low because of his college coach (the guy is playing seniors, so he has less minutes, etc.)

3 Kreider has one thing you cannot teach: speed. And in all sports, speed kills. Granted, he could be another Gene Carr, but I expect he will do more than get the puck in the ocean. I seem him as another Dave Keon, basically, then plus or minus that based on how well he shoots, passes, etc.; how many points do you see a Keon getting today in an 82 game schedule?

4 Kreider will likely play with better (as opposed to average) talent, so his totals will rise because of his linemates and theirs will because of him.

I concede its an educated guess, but I'll stand by it - barring of course, injury.

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08-22-2011, 02:34 PM
  #169
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bernmeister View Post
1. Hockey sense can theoretically be learned, assuming you are right as to critics and they are right as to Kreider. Could I be wrong? Could this be another Grachev? While it is possible, I don't think so. Just because a guy like Stepan has great poise and superior hockey sense as a very strong suit, it doesn't mean others who are at a proper level of development don't have it at all.

2. I thought I read some where on the boards that Kreider's production is artificially low because of his college coach (the guy is playing seniors, so he has less minutes, etc.)

3 Kreider has one thing you cannot teach: speed. And in all sports, speed kills. Granted, he could be another Gene Carr, but I expect he will do more than get the puck in the ocean. I seem him as another Dave Keon, basically, then plus or minus that based on how well he shoots, passes, etc.; how many points do you see a Keon getting today in an 82 game schedule?

4 Kreider will likely play with better (as opposed to average) talent, so his totals will rise because of his linemates and theirs will because of him.

I concede its an educated guess, but I'll stand by it - barring of course, injury.
The bolded is 99.9% true. Only the Kreider haters will tell you otherwise. Stepan for example, got all the powerplay time in the world at Wisconsin and first line minutes, he put up 33 and 54 points respectively in his freshman and sophomore years. Kreider has yet to be given 1st line minutes. We all see what he is capable of when he is given ice-time (See WJC's). Next year, he will be a Junior, an upper-classmen and will be the go-to guy on BC playing top line and power play. It will be very interesting to see how he does. If he puts up points similar to his last 2 years, then we can worry, but right now, I'm not worried at all, because he gets no ice-time.

When he was a year younger than Kreider is now, Kesler put up only 31 points as a 19-20 year old and then turned pro. Look at how he turned out. Kreider is 20 going on 21 next April. If he can put up better numbers than that, hoping for at least 40 points, I will be thrilled. Points don't tell the whole story, although some people think they do. Points at a younger age don't tell the story. Not to compare him to Messier, but Messier put up 11 points in 47 games in the WHA before getting drafted, look how he turned out.


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08-22-2011, 02:35 PM
  #170
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Originally Posted by iamitter View Post
How do you see Kreider getting 55 A when he has proven time and time again he is primarily a goal scorer? If he gets 35 G ever, let alone any 55 assists, I'll be incredibly happy. His hockey IQ is lacking. We should be hoping really really hard that he'll become a more defensively responsible Kessel.
Not an unreasonable objection.
I assume if he brings enough skill, and he gets above average, presumably top linemates, that will help his totals immensely.

Theoretically, I see his skating speed providing big separation.
Coverage has to break down to adjust.
Then he or another hustler or sniper has to finish.

He may not become the greatest finisher of all time, and his finishing and scoring touch may well be less than his super-skating, but it should be good enough for good totals.
We don't know that he will, with coverage breaking down, execute those passes.

I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt, and I again, if NYR can put him with guys who are skilled at helping him in that regard, not just ordinary or average linemates, I expect that will happen.

That's how I see it.

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08-22-2011, 02:36 PM
  #171
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The bolded is 99.9% true. Only the Kreider haters will tell you otherwise. Stepan for example, got all the powerplay time in the world at Wisconsin and first line minutes, he put up 33 and 54 points respectively in his freshman and sophomore years. Kreider has yet to be given 1st line minutes. We all see what he is capable of when he is given ice-time (See WJC's). Next year, he will be a Junior, an upper-classmen and will be the go-to guy on BC playing top line and power play. It will be very interesting to see how he does. If he puts up points similar to his last 2 years, then we can worry, but right now, I'm not worried at all, because he gets no ice-time.
Thanks for the independent confirmation.

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08-22-2011, 02:38 PM
  #172
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The biggest negative thrown against Kreider is his hockey sense. His college career consists of him getting 9 and 13 assists in 40 and 32 games respectively. His Team USA career has him combined for 5 assists in 26 games.

Where do you see evidence that he would make a good center(the forward position that needs hockey sense the most) let alone be able to put up 55 assists at the nhl level? You are probably the only person I've seen to give him such high playmaking potential so I'm curious how you would of formed this opinion when all scouting and production says otherwise so far.
I agree 90 point expectations for Kreider are ridiculous, but using his assist totals playing against men in the World Championship is not how you make that point.

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08-22-2011, 03:03 PM
  #173
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Originally Posted by bernmeister View Post
1. Hockey sense can theoretically be learned, assuming you are right as to critics and they are right as to Kreider. Could I be wrong? Could this be another Grachev? While it is possible, I don't think so. Just because a guy like Stepan has great poise and superior hockey sense as a very strong suit, it doesn't mean others who are at a proper level of development don't have it at all.

2. I thought I read some where on the boards that Kreider's production is artificially low because of his college coach (the guy is playing seniors, so he has less minutes, etc.)

3 Kreider has one thing you cannot teach: speed. And in all sports, speed kills. Granted, he could be another Gene Carr, but I expect he will do more than get the puck in the ocean. I seem him as another Dave Keon, basically, then plus or minus that based on how well he shoots, passes, etc.; how many points do you see a Keon getting today in an 82 game schedule?

4 Kreider will likely play with better (as opposed to average) talent, so his totals will rise because of his linemates and theirs will because of him.

I concede its an educated guess, but I'll stand by it - barring of course, injury.
1. Right, but 55 assists at the nhl level isn't just about having some hockey sense, its about having A LOT of hockey sense.

2. Yeah, I have read that as well, and agree that this is a very important year to show what he's got on a statistical level.

3. Keon was before my time so I can't speculate. And while I agree speed is huge in the nhl, there are so many examples of players with speed that never could hack it at the nhl level that its silly to even start listing. That being said, I do like the way Kreider approaches the game. He really seems like he has the attitude to keep improving and is always willing to use his size and speed for the team by forechecking hard and going to the dirty areas.

4. That theory works both ways since he'll also be playing against more talented players.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ColonialsHockey10 View Post
I agree 90 point expectations for Kreider are ridiculous, but using his assist totals playing against men in the World Championship is not how you make that point.
Yeah, I should have been more clear about that. Just on the world juniors stage he has put up only 3 assists in 13 games. Thats not to degrade his performance because he absolutely produced and then some in the goal scoring area, but to date he has yet to shown any real playmaking potential.

Kreider, so far, has always been about using his speed and size to put the puck on net and has yet to shown any real capacity for setting up his linemates in scoring position. For a guy with those physical tools its not an unreasonable tactic to have, but I'm just pointing out that to get 55 assists in the nhl it requires a lot more than just going hard to the net.

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08-22-2011, 03:36 PM
  #174
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I love the no ice time argument for Kreider. This is how I see it playing out in my head


Jerry York: Mr. Kreider, you've been dominant lately and have helped this team win a lot of games. Hold on,let me get my observation sheet...Oh my lord, Wait just a minute!

Kreider: What? What's wrong?

York: It says here you're an underclassmen, is this true?

Kreider: Well, yeah..I thought you knew that, being the head coach and all..

York: Well that settles it! No more ice time for you!

Kreider: But you were just praising me for...

York: Get out of my office! No underclassmen will ever get ice time on this team! Muhaha

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08-22-2011, 03:39 PM
  #175
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I love the no ice time argument for Kreider. This is how I see it playing out in my head


Jerry York: Mr. Kreider, you've been dominant lately and have helped this team win a lot of games. Hold on,let me get my observation sheet...Oh my lord, Wait just a minute!

Kreider: What? What's wrong?

York: It says here you're an underclassmen, is this true?

Kreider: Well, yeah..I thought you knew that, being the head coach and all..

York: Well that settles it! No more ice time for you!

Kreider: But you were just praising me for...

York: Get out of my office! No underclassmen will ever get ice time on this team! Muhaha
I don't know if you are agreeing with it or going against it, but making fun of it leads me to belive you are going against it. Well it's true. York plays his upper classmen, no matter how talented a younger player might be. Man oh man, I wish they recorded College ice-time, I can't find it anywhere. It would simply end the argument.

Also, Kreider hurt his jaw last year and only played 32 games compared to the maximum 39 games they played. So 7 games could equal who knows how many points. Maybe he would have had 30 points had he not gotten injured last year.

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