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2011-12 stats projections

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Old
07-15-2011, 12:03 PM
  #126
BINYON
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Gionta: 25
Cammalleri: 20
Cole: 19
Pacioretty: 27
Plekanec: 20
Gomez: 16
Kostitsyn: 18
Eller: 7
Darche: 8
Desharnais: 7
White: 3
Moen: 8

Subban: 11
Markov: 11
Gorges: 6
Spacek: 0
Weber: 1
Yemelin: 3
Gill: 0

Total: 210 goals averaging 2.56/game.

I think Cammi might slump a bit for his standards, with Patches having a great year and Gomez stepping his game up.

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07-15-2011, 12:16 PM
  #127
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Cammalleri: 26
Gionta: 27
Kostitsyn: 19
Plekanec: 24
Cole:22
Pacioretty: 28
Gomez: 10
Desharnais: 12
Eller: 15
Darche: 4
Moen: 3
White: 4

Subban: 21
Markov: 13
Weber: 6
Yemelin: 6
Gorges: 3
Spacek: 1
Gill: 0

Price: 0

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07-15-2011, 01:10 PM
  #128
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I think the last before Souray to hit 20 goals for a D was Schneider, in 93-94. 20 goals I believe.

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07-15-2011, 02:19 PM
  #129
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Originally Posted by tbone10 View Post
I think the last before Souray to hit 20 goals for a D was Schneider, in 93-94. 20 goals I believe.
Thanks ...

I can't even think of many other Habs players who'd have a shot (pardon the pun). I think Subban scores 20... if not next year some time over the next 3/4 seasons.

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07-15-2011, 02:36 PM
  #130
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2011-2012 MONTREAL CANADIENS PLAYERS STATS

1 Michael CAMMALLERI // 82 GP - 45 G - 30 A - 75 P
2 Brian GIONTA // 80 GP - 22 G - 29 A - 51 P
3 Erik COLE // 81 GP - 20 G - 30 P - 50 P
4 Andrei MARKOV // 61 GP - 16 G - 32 A - 48 P
5 Scott GOMEZ // 69 GP - 16 G - 25 A - 41 P
6 Max PACIORETTY // 76 GP - 29 G - 12 A - 41 P
7 PK SUBBAN // 82 GP - 15 G - 25 A - 40 P
8 Tomas PLEKANEC // 51 GP - 12 G - 26 A - 38 P
9 David DESHARNAIS // 80 GP - 12 G - 19 A - 31 P
10 Andrei KOSTITSYN // 64 GP - 10 G - 20 A - 30 P
11 Josh GORGES // 81 GP - 6 G - 22 A - 28 P
12 3rd-Line FWD // 74 GP - 4 G - 20 A - 24 P
13 Lars ELLER // 70 GP - 6 G - 18 A - 24 P
14 Jaroslav SPACEK // 77 GP - 4 G - 16 A - 20 P
15 Mathieu DARCHE // 49 GP - 3 G - 12 A - 15 P
16 Travis MOEN // 72 GP - 4 G - 11 A - 15 P
17 Alexei EMELIN // 71 GP - 2 G - 12 A - 14 P
18 Yannick WEBER // 52 GP - 2 G - 10 A - 12 P
19 Hal GILL // 73 GP - 2 G - 10 A - 12 P
20 Ryan WHITE // 70 GP - 1 G - 7 A - 8 P
21 Andreas ENGQVIST // 12 GP - 2 G - 5 A - 7 P
22 Raphael DIAZ // 21 GP - 1 G - 4 A - 5 P
23 Carey PRICE // 70 GP - 0 G - 4 A - 4 P
24 Mike BLUNDEN // 9 GP - 1 G - 2 A - 3 P
25 Brian WILLSIE // 6 GP - 0 G - 3 A - 3 P
26 Alex HENRY // 10 GP - 0 G - 2 A - 2 P
27 Aaron PALUSHAJ // 1 GP 0 G 1 A - 1 P
28 Mathieu CARLE // 1 GP 0 G 0 A - 0 P
29 Nathan LAWSON // 1 GP 0 G 0 G - 0 P
30 Peter BUDAJ // 17 GP - 0 G - 0 A - 0 P

1476 GP - 240 G - 402 A - 642 P

*These predictions do not stand on anything except my incredible imagination.

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Old
07-15-2011, 02:58 PM
  #131
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Optimistic™ predictions below.

Code:
Forwards:

Gionta	32
Cammalleri	31
Plekanec	27
Cole		26
Paciorrety	25
Kostitsyn	23
Eller		18
Gomez	16
Desharnais	15
Darche	10
White	8
Moen		6


Defense:

Subban	16
Weber	11
Markov	9
Emelin	5
Gorges	4
Spacek	3
Gill		2

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Old
07-15-2011, 04:36 PM
  #132
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Based on goals per game in a Habs uniform over the last 4 years (if they have played in Montreal that long), prorated to 82 games. Cole is GPG per past 4 years. Includes both playoff and regular season games.

Forwards:
Gionta - 33.48
Cammaleri - 31.66
Plekanec - 24.09
Kostitsyn - 23.48
Cole - 21.55
Darche - 13.92
Pacioretty - 13.33
Desharnais - 12.55
Gomez - 9.36
Moen - 7.05
Eller - 6.83
White - 3.28

Defense:
Subban - 13.94
Markov - 10.93
Weber - 5.96
Spacek - 2.91
Gorges - 2.22
Gill - 1.95

However both Pacioretty and Eller are expected to sharply exceed their career scoring rates next season. Pacioretty should make 20 for the first time in his career and Eller probably should make 10+. 6 20 goal scorers is a decent possibility, I expect their to be 5 (someone always gets injuried). Darche and maybe Desharnias will get less PP time than previous years and may have a resulting production dip.

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07-15-2011, 05:10 PM
  #133
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Darche will score 25 this year

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Old
07-18-2011, 10:30 AM
  #134
RyanBostonRedsox
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Cammalleri: 32
Gionta: 27
Cole: 26
Pacioretty: 24
Plekanex: 22
Kostytsin: 25
Gomez: 16
Eller: 17
Darche: 11
Desharnais: 14
Moen: 6
White: 3

Subban: 18
Markov: 11
Weber: 7
Gorges: 2
Spacek: 4
Yemelin: 8
Gill: 0

Price: 1
Budaj: 0

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Old
08-06-2011, 11:45 AM
  #135
DDs not undersized
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2011-12 stats projections

Yes I know it's early... but before the publication of the first poolers guide, I'd like to see everyone's stats projections for the next year Habs.

Here are mine :

Tomas Plekanec 80-21-46-67
Mike Cammalleri 75-30-34-64
Brian Gionta 82-28-28-56
David Desharnais 78-15-38-53
PK Subban 82-16-36-52
Andrei Markov 70-8-43-51
Max Pacioretty 75-24-25-49
Andrei Kostitsyn 72-20-25-45
Erik Cole 70-19-25-44
Scott Gomez 81-10-33-43
Lars Eller 80-12-20-32
Mathieu Darche 73-12-16-28
Yannick Weber 67-4-19-23
Jaroslav Spacek 80-3-17-20
Josh Gorges 75-1-13-14
Travis Moen 80-5-8-13
Alexei Yemelin 60-3-10-13
Aaron Palushaj 28-5-5-10
Ryan White 60-3-6-9
Hal Gill 82-1-7-8
Raphael Diaz 22-1-6-7
Brendon Nash 10-0-3-3
Andreas Engqvist 15-1-1-2
Brian Willsie 6-0-1-1
Mark Mitera 8-0-0-0

Total goals for : 242 (that seems a bit optimistic...)

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Old
08-06-2011, 11:55 AM
  #136
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Partisan du CH View Post
Yes I know it's early... but before the publication of the first poolers guide, I'd like to see everyone's stats projections for the next year Habs.

Here are mine :

Tomas Plekanec 80-21-46-67
Mike Cammalleri 75-30-34-64
Brian Gionta 82-28-28-56
David Desharnais 78-15-38-53
PK Subban 82-16-36-52
Andrei Markov 70-8-43-51
Max Pacioretty 75-24-25-49
Andrei Kostitsyn 72-20-25-45
Erik Cole 70-19-25-44
Scott Gomez 81-10-33-43
Lars Eller 80-12-20-32
Mathieu Darche 73-12-16-28
Yannick Weber 67-4-19-23
Jaroslav Spacek 80-3-17-20
Josh Gorges 75-1-13-14
Travis Moen 80-5-8-13
Alexei Yemelin 60-3-10-13
Aaron Palushaj 28-5-5-10
Ryan White 60-3-6-9
Hal Gill 82-1-7-8
Raphael Diaz 22-1-6-7
Brendon Nash 10-0-3-3
Andreas Engqvist 15-1-1-2
Brian Willsie 6-0-1-1
Mark Mitera 8-0-0-0

Total goals for : 242 (that seems a bit optimistic...)
For some reason, I think, in terms of stats, Subban will hit the sophmore slump. Also a bit too generous with Darche and Desharnais. I wanna see DD play a full year, or just about before assuming he's a 50 point player. If he can withstand the NHL grind, then my doubts will disappear from him.

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08-06-2011, 12:02 PM
  #137
DDs not undersized
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Originally Posted by ruski17 View Post
For some reason, I think, in terms of stats, Subban will hit the sophmore slump. Also a bit too generous with Darche and Desharnais. I wanna see DD play a full year, or just about before assuming he's a 50 point player. If he can withstand the NHL grind, then my doubts will disappear from him.
I agree there's a risk for Subban to hit the sophomore slump. Also, I'm not convinced the chemistry with Markov will be automatic on the power play. It could take some time to work.

I've been generous with Desharnais, but I think he will surprise everyone again, as he has done at every level. Of course that depends of how much icetime he gets too, but JM likes him and I'm sure he'll give him plenty of time.

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08-10-2011, 11:42 AM
  #138
Slashers98
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Here are my offensive predictions for the forwards in 2011-12: 2011-12 Predictions - Forwards Feel free to comment!

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08-10-2011, 11:54 AM
  #139
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Originally Posted by Slashers98 View Post
Here are my offensive predictions for the forwards in 2011-12: 2011-12 Predictions - Forwards Feel free to comment!
http://hockeyindependent.com/blog/slasher98/37539/

Link didn't work originally.

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08-10-2011, 01:03 PM
  #140
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Thanks for re-linking the article!

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08-10-2011, 01:26 PM
  #141
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No problem! Hope you're right about Cole getting 27 goals

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Old
08-12-2011, 02:11 PM
  #142
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Points Prediction Spreadsheet

Not sure, how many people are into predictions for players but while at work today, I started fooling around in a spreadsheet basically just putting together what I thought the lines would be for the upcoming season (4 forward lines, 2 spares, 7 d-men, 2 goalies). I then decided to make a chart with all of them and predict their GP, goals, assists (subsequently points) for all of them. I decided to just do save %, GAA and shutouts for the goalies (with GP).

I set it up so that I just enter in my predictions and then at the end of the season I will enter what they actually got and it will just show me how far off I was.

I decided to post it on here in case anyone is interested in keeping track of something like this. It's kind of cool and it wasted me a nice hour at work, while I had nothing to do. It's even got calculators for the max amount of assists allowed, the # of games the team could play and has a nice little legend for all the column titles. You can keep track of it for more seasons by copying a new tab of it in the sheet and just change the lines and it will change the player's names in the table for you.

I kept most of it protected so nothing would get changed that shouldn't be (I left the title editable so other fans can use it for their teams too).

Also, you'll have to edit out names and my predictions before you start (all the editable fields for the table are in blue, then the notes and depth chart is editable as well).

Hope some of you enjoy it!

PS. Don't tell my boss

Edit: Whoops, did not see the stats projection thread my bad.
Attached Files
File Type: zip MC2011.zip‎ (12.7 KB, 6 views)

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Old
08-12-2011, 04:07 PM
  #143
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A problem with predictions is how much injuries tend to be a random factor. With that in mind I looked at what a good number to adjust the typical injury rate per season to be. I came up with 2.75 injuries per game as a rough median for last season and a decent approximations. This translates to a 72 game season being about typical for an NHL player for the regular season. With that in mind I plugged in the average production of players in a Habs uniform going as far back as 4 years (Markov, Gorges, Plekanec and Kostitsyn) except for Cole who I used the past 4 years in Carolina. Here are how the results turned out. I could have included 3 years for Pacioretty but I though only last season was really reflective of the player he is now.


Player: Projected 72 game season

Cammaleri: 28 goals, 58 points
Plekanec: 21 goals, 52 points
Cole: 19 goals, 41 points

Pacioretty: 27 goals, 47 points
Gomez: 12 goals, 52 points
Gionta: 30 goals, 48 points

Darche: 12 goals, 27 points
Eller: 7 goals, 17 points
Kostitsyn: 20 goals, 42 points

Moen: 6 goals, 15 points
Desharnais: 11 goals, 32 points
White: 3 goals, 10 points


Markov: 9 goals, 49 points
Gorges: 2 goals, 14 points

Gill: 1 goal, 9 points
Subban: 12 goals, 37 points

Spacek: 3 goals, 21 points
Weber: 5 goals, 21 points

This method probably underrates a few players a bit, mainly Plekanec and Eller and likely overrates Darche, Spacek and maybe Desharnais who benefited from PP time they are not likely to see this season.

While this doesn't look all that impressive, this adds up to 2.78 goals per game, which would be good for 13th in the league last season, tied with Pittsburg. If Montreal retains a 2.51 GA that makes for a respectable +22 goal differential, which usually secures a mid-level playoff position.

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08-16-2011, 04:09 PM
  #144
canadiensnation
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Most Improved Hab Predictions

Who will have the biggest jump from last year to this year?
Lars Eller.....Gomez.....?

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08-16-2011, 04:10 PM
  #145
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Max Pacioretty will be God-like.

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08-17-2011, 10:00 AM
  #146
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
A problem with predictions is how much injuries tend to be a random factor. With that in mind I looked at what a good number to adjust the typical injury rate per season to be. I came up with 2.75 injuries per game as a rough median for last season and a decent approximations. This translates to a 72 game season being about typical for an NHL player for the regular season. With that in mind I plugged in the average production of players in a Habs uniform going as far back as 4 years (Markov, Gorges, Plekanec and Kostitsyn) except for Cole who I used the past 4 years in Carolina. Here are how the results turned out. I could have included 3 years for Pacioretty but I though only last season was really reflective of the player he is now.


Player: Projected 72 game season

Cammaleri: 28 goals, 58 points
Plekanec: 21 goals, 52 points
Cole: 19 goals, 41 points

Pacioretty: 27 goals, 47 points
Gomez: 12 goals, 52 points
Gionta: 30 goals, 48 points

Darche: 12 goals, 27 points
Eller: 7 goals, 17 points
Kostitsyn: 20 goals, 42 points

Moen: 6 goals, 15 points
Desharnais: 11 goals, 32 points
White: 3 goals, 10 points


Markov: 9 goals, 49 points
Gorges: 2 goals, 14 points

Gill: 1 goal, 9 points
Subban: 12 goals, 37 points

Spacek: 3 goals, 21 points
Weber: 5 goals, 21 points

This method probably underrates a few players a bit, mainly Plekanec and Eller and likely overrates Darche, Spacek and maybe Desharnais who benefited from PP time they are not likely to see this season.

While this doesn't look all that impressive, this adds up to 2.78 goals per game, which would be good for 13th in the league last season, tied with Pittsburg. If Montreal retains a 2.51 GA that makes for a respectable +22 goal differential, which usually secures a mid-level playoff position.
Very good post. Well researched and sensible. I've been pondering the goals potential also. And like you I'm assuming about 70 games per player. I come up with slightly higher totals than you, and I think our GAA will be more like 2.4, not 2.5.(and the lines listed below will change of course, these are based on depth only):

Cammy 25 Pleks 25 Cole 20: 70 Goals
Gio 25 Gomer 10 Pax 25 (Pray for Pax my brothers, Pray): 60 Goals
DD 10 Eller 10 Kosty 20: 40 Goals (That's finally a scoring 3rd line, about bloody time)
Moen, Darche, White, Enquist, etc: 20 Goals

190 goals from forwards, easy. And yes we just might have 6 20 Goal scorers this year. Damn!

Marky 10 Subby 15: 25 goals
Weber, Emelin, Spacegoat, Gill, Gorgy: 15 goals

40 Goals from defense, easy.

230 goals for.

I think Carey and Budgie can do 2.4 GAA, with Marky and Gorgy healthy for 70 games:

Say 200 Goals against.

30 goal differential, which is very damn good. And I think I've been pretty conservative.

30 Goal diff should be good for top 5 Conference I think.

Damn, let the puck drop, come on Les Boys!

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08-17-2011, 10:33 AM
  #147
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BINYON View Post
Gionta: 25
Cammalleri: 20
Cole: 19
Pacioretty: 27
Plekanec: 20
Gomez: 16
Kostitsyn: 18
Eller: 7
Darche: 8
Desharnais: 7
White: 3
Moen: 8

Subban: 11
Markov: 11
Gorges: 6
Spacek: 0
Weber: 1
Yemelin: 3
Gill: 0

Total: 210 goals averaging 2.56/game.

I think Cammi might slump a bit for his standards, with Patches having a great year and Gomez stepping his game up.
I admire your conservative attitude, but you must be assuming quite a bit of injury time here. See bold above.

Gio: OK 25

Cammy: Add 5

Pax: Less 2

Plek: Add 5

Kosty: Add 2

Eller: Add 3

Darche: Not counting on him, 5 goals fine. Less 3

DD: Add 3

White: Not counting on him, 3 goals fine

Moen: Less 5. Not counting on him, 3 goals fine

Subban: Add 4

Marky: OK 11

Gorges 6? Dream on: Less 4

Spaceman: Add 3. It's spaceman, not Don Awry. He CAN score you know.

Weber: Add 3

Yemelin: OK 3

Gill: Just have to: Add 2, both on breakaways, top shelf.

Your total: 210 Goals for.

My total per your player by player analysis:

225. And I'm calling for 230.

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08-23-2011, 11:20 AM
  #148
Slashers98
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Two weeks ago, I posted my player projections for the forwards, now it's time to do it for the defensemen:

Montreal Canadiens: Player Projections for the 2011-12 season – part 2, defensemen: http://hockeyindependent.com/blog/slasher98/37811/

Let me know what you think!

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08-23-2011, 03:50 PM
  #149
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Originally Posted by Slashers98 View Post
Two weeks ago, I posted my player projections for the forwards, now it's time to do it for the defensemen:

Montreal Canadiens: Player Projections for the 2011-12 season – part 2, defensemen: http://hockeyindependent.com/blog/slasher98/37811/

Let me know what you think!
Well there's something wrong with the number of games you expect each d-man to play. Subban 80, Markov 70, Weber 76, Emelin 77, Spacek 63, Gorges 78, Gill 77, Diaz 32. I hope Martin doesn't play all season-long with 7 defensemen.

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08-23-2011, 04:15 PM
  #150
Talks to Goalposts
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Originally Posted by Slashers98 View Post
Here are my offensive predictions for the forwards in 2011-12: 2011-12 Predictions - Forwards Feel free to comment!
I thought you were pretty optimistic about the middle forwards, I doubt that all of Kostitsyn, Cole, Desharnias and Darche get the ice time to put up the numbers you projected, especially on the power play where there is a log jam for forwards. Only one, maybe two of those guys can get regular unit PP time for the full season

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