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News Article: Road to Titletown?

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08-23-2011, 11:44 AM
  #1
BleedOrange
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News Article: Road to Titletown?

Interesting odds posted on philly.com. No idea who these supposed odds makers are, but they seem way off to me.

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/...itletown_.html


Has us 7-1 odds to win the cup behind only 6-1 for the Canucks. Ahead of Pitt, Wash and Boston??


Last edited by MiamiScreamingEagles: 08-23-2011 at 11:55 AM. Reason: Fixed broken link
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08-23-2011, 11:51 AM
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Write philly off at their peril. I think it's going to be a great year

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08-23-2011, 12:04 PM
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Guy that works at the Daily News. So those odds come from Philadelphia. According to Bodog the Flyers are at 11/1 and the 5th favorite (4th in the East)

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08-23-2011, 12:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Hollywood Couturier View Post
Guy that works at the Daily News. So those odds come from Philadelphia. According to Bodog the Flyers are at 11/1 and the 5th favorite (4th in the East)
I find it funny though that even odds makers are placing the Penguins as heavy favourites to win the Cup even with all the uncertainty surrounding Crosby and his immediate and long term future.

Without Crosby, I see them struggling to win the divison. I think the Flyers and Devils have better chances of winning the Atlantic this year than the Penguins do.

As for the Capitals, they are perennial Stanley Cup choke artists.

Honestly speaking, the only 2 teams I see being better than the Flyers are the Bruins and Canucks and that's not saying the Flyers can't beat them in a 7 game series.

... but what do I know. Go to the Penguins forum and they still believe they are favourites to win the Cup and they think they are better than the Flyers.


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08-23-2011, 12:13 PM
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Betting odds are heavily influenced by the previous year.

Oddsmakers also don't know hockey very well.

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08-23-2011, 12:28 PM
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I'm still scared about Boston, They finished the season with stupid amounts of salary space. Typical big tough team to play against. As long as we don't run into buffalo in the play-offs we are ok. They are like cryptonite to us.

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08-23-2011, 01:44 PM
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Wow - I am surprised at the optimism. I am thinking we are a playoff team. I can honestly see us on the outside of the playoffs if Pronger doesn't play for an extended period. What am I missing?

Off: Brian Boucher, Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, Ville Leino, O'd, Powe, Carcillo, Boucher
On: Bryzgalov (upgrade - better than Bob? Maybe), Schenn (rookie - downgrade), Voracek (downgrade), Simmonds (downgrade), Lilja (downgrade), ?, ?

I see Giroux and JVR having issues matched against the other teams shutdown line and top pairing nightly. I see this team showing its youth. I see Kimmo and Pronger showing their age. I see us fighting for a playoff spot.

And I am usually pretty optimistic, I thought playoffs were being optimistic? Hmmm

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08-23-2011, 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted by phillyfanatic View Post
Wow - I am surprised at the optimism. I am thinking we are a playoff team. I can honestly see us on the outside of the playoffs if Pronger doesn't play for an extended period. What am I missing?

Off: Brian Boucher, Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, Ville Leino, O'd, Powe, Carcillo, Boucher
On: Bryzgalov (upgrade - better than Bob? Maybe), Schenn (rookie - downgrade), Voracek (downgrade), Simmonds (downgrade), Lilja (downgrade), ?, ?

I see Giroux and JVR having issues matched against the other teams shutdown line and top pairing nightly. I see this team showing its youth. I see Kimmo and Pronger showing their age. I see us fighting for a playoff spot.

And I am usually pretty optimistic, I thought playoffs were being optimistic? Hmmm
Wow, to think we are a borderline playoff team is pretty negative. You also forgot Jagr in the additions, who I think is an upgrade over some of the players we lost. "Bryzgalov maybe better than Bob?", what are you nuts? He absolutely is an upgrade, not to say Bob can't be better in the future, but come on, former Vezina finalist compared to a goalie who had a great rookie year but faltered under the new load of games played?

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08-23-2011, 03:04 PM
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Wow, to think we are a borderline playoff team is pretty negative. You also forgot Jagr in the additions, who I think is an upgrade over some of the players we lost. "Bryzgalov maybe better than Bob?", what are you nuts? He absolutely is an upgrade, not to say Bob can't be better in the future, but come on, former Vezina finalist compared to a goalie who had a great rookie year but faltered under the new load of games played?
Our forwards are terrible defensively on paper.

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08-23-2011, 03:58 PM
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Our forwards are terrible defensively on paper.
Luckily we still have our defense intact, and a much improved goaltending situation, so right now more worried about them scoring goals, than their paper defense.

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08-23-2011, 04:22 PM
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Our forwards are terrible defensively on paper.
So was Hartnell - Briere - Leino

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08-23-2011, 04:55 PM
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So was Hartnell - Briere - Leino
And they didn't have to take tough defensive shifts previously which shielded them from that. Not so much the case anymore. Hartnell is also a pretty good defensive forward, and was a big part of why they were passable defensively.

I certainly look forward to Briere taking defensive zone draws against top lines with regularity.

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08-23-2011, 05:00 PM
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Luckily we still have our defense intact, and a much improved goaltending situation, so right now more worried about them scoring goals, than their paper defense.
I'm more worried about our ability to stop goals from getting scored, and our ability to get and maintain possession of the puck. The D is going to get worked VERY hard this year with this group, and we're starting the year off with a recovering Pronger.

Look at the good teams around the league and strong defense or not, you don't see MASSIVE question marks about the ability of their forwards (as a group) to play D. Our top 3 centers as of now are Briere (terrible defensively), Giroux (tries hard, but isn't that great at it), and Schenn (a rookie who will struggle like all rookies do in that area -- even REALLY good rookies). Even if Giroux continues to improve as a defensive center, he still has matchup problems against bigger guys (size, reach, etc.) that are going to be problematic for this club (isn't like Briere can lean on anyone).

An addendum to this will be the performance of our forwards on the PK, which is a HUGE question mark as well at this point.

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08-23-2011, 05:01 PM
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Originally Posted by phillyfanatic View Post
Wow - I am surprised at the optimism. I am thinking we are a playoff team. I can honestly see us on the outside of the playoffs if Pronger doesn't play for an extended period. What am I missing?

Off: Brian Boucher, Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, Ville Leino, O'd, Powe, Carcillo, Boucher
On: Bryzgalov (upgrade - better than Bob? Maybe), Schenn (rookie - downgrade), Voracek (downgrade), Simmonds (downgrade), Lilja (downgrade), ?, ?

I see Giroux and JVR having issues matched against the other teams shutdown line and top pairing nightly. I see this team showing its youth. I see Kimmo and Pronger showing their age. I see us fighting for a playoff spot.

And I am usually pretty optimistic, I thought playoffs were being optimistic? Hmmm
Huh?

Goalie- Bryzgalov is HUGE upgrade over Bob, who is an upgrade over Boosh at backup.

We replaced our 4 RWs

Jagr for Carter - I don't want to start a big debate, but there is reason to think Jagr could approach the 66 points Jeff got playing out of position, and JJ is a PP specialist too.

Voracek for Leino - Voracek's younger, bigger and better, and playing with his hometown Kladno idol...

Simmonds for Versteeg - massive upgrade in every way.

Talbot for Powe - Talbot has character to spare and is great on the PK too, we will miss Powe's consistent hitting and speed.

Centre -

Schenn for Richards - Brayden may not get more than 40 points, but he's going to be a good all around player. IF you had to trade the rookie Richards for the 6 year veteran, there really isn't that much difference. Schenn is also bigger and stronger and has been doing Gary Roberts' program all summer so he should be strong, hungry and ready for a good season.

LW/mini-goon

Sestito/Rinaldo/Read for Carcillo - always liked Dan, he couldn't stay healthy when he was playing well. Easily replaced with size, speed or skill.

Defence -
Bartulis, Gustafsson and Lilja for O'Donnell and Bartulis/Gus/Syvret - I don't think the team thought O'D would last another full year as 6D, so they signed Lilja as a 6/7 D. He's as big as O'D, more physical and a better shot block, if just as slow. When/if Pronger is healthy, I really think Bartulis will play with Meszaros in the 3rd pair, unless Gus beats him out clean. Either way, our 3rd pairing will be great when Prongs is in the lineup, and the D still strong when he's not.

Health is always an issue, but with relatively good health, I see the Flyers winning the Atlantic for sure, and being a top 4-5 team at worst. Edit: FYI, the Hockey News yearbook picks the Flyers to finish 1st in the Atlantic.

Jester is right, that overall D from forwards is reduced, it'll be Lavy's job to make sure everyone backchecks, even Briere.

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08-23-2011, 05:10 PM
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Goalie- Bryzgalov is HUGE upgrade over Bob, who is an upgrade over Boosh at backup.
Bryz is an upgrade, but he is not a "HUGE" upgrade over what Bob did for this team last year. Bob was very good.

Bob posted a .915 last year. Bryz is a career .916 goalie. Lets give him the benefit of the doubt and say he replicates the season he had last year, which would be a .920.

We allowed 2,465 SOGA last year (probably will allow a bit more this year with our forwards, I think). The difference between a .915 (Bob/Boucher had .915/.916 respectively) and a .920 is 12.3 goals. That's it. Now, the Bryz/Bob tandem is likely to be better than the Bob/Boucher tandem. However, people need to tone down their expectations concerning the massive bottom line improvement we are going to see from Bryz over what we got last year. He will likely be a bit more consistent, and he will likely provide more SO than we would have gotten... which will result in a few more wins. We are, however, only talking about pushing the needle a little bit at the end of the day, and that's without getting into the downgrade at other positions (which is huge... our forwards are far worse today than they were six months ago).

As noted in many other discussions, the playoff catastrophe (and Bob clearly wearing down over the year) has wound up with everyone seemingly having lost sight of the fact that Bob was pretty damn good last year. Especially for a rookie.

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08-23-2011, 05:38 PM
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Bryz is an upgrade, but he is not a "HUGE" upgrade over what Bob did for this team last year. Bob was very good.

Bob posted a .915 last year. Bryz is a career .916 goalie. Lets give him the benefit of the doubt and say he replicates the season he had last year, which would be a .920.

We allowed 2,465 SOGA last year (probably will allow a bit more this year with our forwards, I think). The difference between a .915 (Bob/Boucher had .915/.916 respectively) and a .920 is 12.3 goals. That's it. Now, the Bryz/Bob tandem is likely to be better than the Bob/Boucher tandem. However, people need to tone down their expectations concerning the massive bottom line improvement we are going to see from Bryz over what we got last year. He will likely be a bit more consistent, and he will likely provide more SO than we would have gotten... which will result in a few more wins. We are, however, only talking about pushing the needle a little bit at the end of the day, and that's without getting into the downgrade at other positions (which is huge... our forwards are far worse today than they were six months ago).

As noted in many other discussions, the playoff catastrophe (and Bob clearly wearing down over the year) has wound up with everyone seemingly having lost sight of the fact that Bob was pretty damn good last year. Especially for a rookie.
Boucher had a .916 last year...whats your point?

Bryz is a massive upgrade over Bob (if we are talking right now, today, here, this moment)

goalies can steal games in the playoffs...stats arent going to reflect that accurately.

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08-23-2011, 06:27 PM
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Boucher had a .916 last year...whats your point?

Bryz is a massive upgrade over Bob (if we are talking right now, today, here, this moment)

goalies can steal games in the playoffs...stats arent going to reflect that accurately.
You don't think stats reflect that Thomas stole games?

And, no, in the course of an 82 game schedule I think it's silly to suggest that Bryz is a "massive upgrade" over Bob if we admit how good Bob was for this team last year. Both he and Boucher played very good last year. Would they replicate that? Who knows (I doubt it). If you stuck Bryz on our team last year, there's a decent chance that we end up holding on to win the East... but I don't think we win the Cup given where the team was at by the end.

Other food for thought: Bryz's splits on the PK are *ing terrible. He simply hasn't been a good goalie when his team is down a man... which is great given that we take a ton of penalties generally, and this year I think puck possession may be an issue (also a problem for penalties against). We also traded away our best forward PK'er.

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08-23-2011, 07:07 PM
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We also let another strong PKer walk.

Yeah. I don't buy those odds in the article at all. There are simply too many question marks surrounding this team at this time for me to say they have any decent Cup shot.

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08-23-2011, 07:38 PM
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You don't think stats reflect that Thomas stole games?
While Thomas' performance is both evident in watching and in stats, I would argue that the series stats for Luongo would never let you suspect how he played in the first 3 home games of the SCF. Although he will be blamed for the series, his goaltending in the 3 wins that the Canucks got was stellar.

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08-23-2011, 08:12 PM
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Bryz is an upgrade, but he is not a "HUGE" upgrade over what Bob did for this team last year. Bob was very good.

Bob posted a .915 last year. Bryz is a career .916 goalie. Lets give him the benefit of the doubt and say he replicates the season he had last year, which would be a .920.

We allowed 2,465 SOGA last year (probably will allow a bit more this year with our forwards, I think). The difference between a .915 (Bob/Boucher had .915/.916 respectively) and a .920 is 12.3 goals. That's it.
.
Wow, Leighton posted a .918 SV% the year before, does that make him better than Bob and Bryz.

Bryz is a huge upgrade over Bob. He's one of the best goalies in the league, Bob might be in a few years.

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08-23-2011, 08:19 PM
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Too many variables fall in the unknown category, injuries and trades especially. No one knows what the landscape of hockey will be after the trade deadline and that is when predictions start to carry weight.

Pre-season hockey picks are done to sell magazines or create buzz but they shouldn't be taken serious.

And very few people are betting hockey in the sports books in Las Vegas. Too many other sports are far more appealing for the average bettor including and especially football on the pro and college level. Hockey is based on a money line and not a point (goal) spread and that is a major hindrance.

Futures bets for Stanley Cup winners have minimal impact in Las Vegas or in the betting community. It picks up later in the hockey season though lines change, dramatically in some cases, based on the first few months of the season. People who would bet now what to capitalize on the line, that is the attraction.

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08-24-2011, 04:15 AM
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You don't think stats reflect that Thomas stole games?

And, no, in the course of an 82 game schedule I think it's silly to suggest that Bryz is a "massive upgrade" over Bob if we admit how good Bob was for this team last year. Both he and Boucher played very good last year. Would they replicate that? Who knows (I doubt it). If you stuck Bryz on our team last year, there's a decent chance that we end up holding on to win the East... but I don't think we win the Cup given where the team was at by the end.

Other food for thought: Bryz's splits on the PK are *ing terrible. He simply hasn't been a good goalie when his team is down a man... which is great given that we take a ton of penalties generally, and this year I think puck possession may be an issue (also a problem for penalties against). We also traded away our best forward PK'er.
Yeah and Bobrovsky did it with the best team in the NHL for long stretches. Bryzgalov did it with a borderline play-off team, mainly because of his excellent goaltending.

Bryzgalov doesn't let up easy goals. He doesn't give away backbreaking goals like Bobrovsky did. I love Bob but he did have some clear rookie troubles. Mainly letting up goals at the wrong times. If you don't think that Bryz is a huge upgrade you are mistaken.

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08-24-2011, 06:20 AM
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Let's see how Bryz deals with real pressure (fans, media and Snider) before we put the crown on his head. The good thing with Bob was that through the end of December teams hadn't figured him out but once he got tired and teams exposed his weaknesses everything changed.

The odds in the article are insane. Half the team is new and Schenn, Simmonds, Voracek and Bryz haven't dealt with much fan or media pressure. Most of them haven't met their new teammates, let alone played with them. Our top 2 dmen are aging and the next tier isn't good when they aren't paired with a leader. There is going to be a transition period and hopefully it isn't as bad a start as it was 2 years ago.

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08-24-2011, 09:51 AM
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Wow, Leighton posted a .918 SV% the year before, does that make him better than Bob and Bryz.

Bryz is a huge upgrade over Bob. He's one of the best goalies in the league, Bob might be in a few years.
And you couldn't play much better than Leighton did that year, could you? The issue is replicating that performance, the results speak for themselves. As said, Bryz is a better goalie, but we got very good goal play last year. To suggest that we are going to get a HUGE upgrade in play is baseline ignorance, and not fair to Bob and Boucher.

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Yeah and Bobrovsky did it with the best team in the NHL for long stretches. Bryzgalov did it with a borderline play-off team, mainly because of his excellent goaltending.

Bryzgalov doesn't let up easy goals. He doesn't give away backbreaking goals like Bobrovsky did. I love Bob but he did have some clear rookie troubles. Mainly letting up goals at the wrong times. If you don't think that Bryz is a huge upgrade you are mistaken.
I take it you didn't watch PHX's playoff series then.

Your thesis also rests on the fallacy that goalie play is based on the team and not the goalie. Good goalies post good numbers regardless of their team. Just look at Luongo.


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08-24-2011, 10:02 AM
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While Thomas' performance is both evident in watching and in stats, I would argue that the series stats for Luongo would never let you suspect how he played in the first 3 home games of the SCF. Although he will be blamed for the series, his goaltending in the 3 wins that the Canucks got was stellar.
If you want to look for a "stolen game" you need to look at game logs, and Luongos game log was *ing awful. However, it also captures his good games.

We don't have it for hockey, but something akin to a QS would be good for goalies.

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