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The Search for the Elusive Goal Scorer (The Armchair GM thread)

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08-23-2011, 02:35 PM
  #1
ThirdManIn
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The Search for the Elusive Goal Scorer (The Armchair GM thread)

Quote:
Originally Posted by 101st_fan View Post
We have decent forwards, but they are primarily 3rd scoring line with 2nd line max potential. We lack that dynamic scoring winger for the top six, preferably for the top line.

Guys like Benn, Kulemin, Skinner are hard to find and every team wants them. It's going to cost us big to get the type player we'd all like to see come back in return ... if anyone is willing to part with one. That's why guys like AK are so attractive ... the potential is there, but, the baggage makes them expendable.
I can't remember if it was you or someone else, or even if it was on HF or the main boards, but someone brought up the very limited number of 30 goal scorers in the league. 29 last year to be exact. Not enough to have one per team, and 7 those have only hit 30 or more goals once (Stafford, Skinner [rookie], Kulemin, Couture [rookie], Grabner, Lucic, Kesler). Anaheim had three of those players. Tampa had two. Toronto had two. Vancouver had two. San Jose had two. Philly had two, one of which was traded. Chicago had two. Etc.

All of the thirty goal scorers from last year were spread out over 17 teams. One of them was traded, but to a team which already had a 30 goal scorer (Carter traded to Columbus who had Nash). That leaves you with 13 teams who don't have, and would probably like to have, a 30+ goal scorer. 8 of the 17 teams with at least one only have one, so trading for that player is very unlikely.

In 2009-2010 there were only 24 players with 30 or more goals, and one of them played for us. In 2008-2009 there were 39. 28 in 2007-2008. It really is a tough asset to get, and it gets even tougher when you exclude the untouchables (Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Perry, Skinner, Couture, Zetterberg, Sedins, Stamkos, Kesler).

Honestly, looking at it, it seems like AK is the only realistic option right now.


Last edited by ThirdManIn: 08-23-2011 at 02:43 PM.
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08-23-2011, 03:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ThirdManIn View Post
I can't remember if it was you or someone else, or even if it was on HF or the main boards, but someone brought up the very limited number of 30 goal scorers in the league. 29 last year to be exact. Not enough to have one per team, and 7 those have only hit 30 or more goals once (Stafford, Skinner [rookie], Kulemin, Couture [rookie], Grabner, Lucic, Kesler). Anaheim had three of those players. Tampa had two. Toronto had two. Vancouver had two. San Jose had two. Philly had two, one of which was traded. Chicago had two. Etc.

All of the thirty goal scorers from last year were spread out over 17 teams. One of them was traded, but to a team which already had a 30 goal scorer (Carter traded to Columbus who had Nash). That leaves you with 13 teams who don't have, and would probably like to have, a 30+ goal scorer. 8 of the 17 teams with at least one only have one, so trading for that player is very unlikely.

In 2009-2010 there were only 24 players with 30 or more goals, and one of them played for us. In 2008-2009 there were 39. 28 in 2007-2008. It really is a tough asset to get, and it gets even tougher when you exclude the untouchables (Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Perry, Skinner, Couture, Zetterberg, Sedins, Stamkos, Kesler).

Honestly, looking at it, it seems like AK is the only realistic option right now.
There lies the problem. Point per game is a pipe dream for most teams in the league ... 30g scorers are a rarity ... yet those are the facts that fans have stuck in their minds. Realistically a 60-70 pt guy who nets 25+ is an upper tier forward when he can do it consistently. AK is a viable option, but, not the flashy guy the fan base clamors for. I'd love it if Dallas was in shambles and let Benn go ... but that will not happen.

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08-23-2011, 03:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 101st_fan View Post
There lies the problem. Point per game is a pipe dream for most teams in the league ... 30g scorers are a rarity ... yet those are the facts that fans have stuck in their minds. Realistically a 60-70 pt guy who nets 25+ is an upper tier forward when he can do it consistently. AK is a viable option, but, not the flashy guy the fan base clamors for. I'd love it if Dallas was in shambles and let Benn go ... but that will not happen.
When you look at the very limited amount of those types of flashy offensive guys it makes you wonder what Weber is wanting to see Poile do. I wonder if his expectations are realistic (re-sign Suter and Rinne, trade for a guy like AK), if he's wanting ownership to start ponying up more cash to go after some free agents next season (Semin, Parise, Penner), or if he is of the same mind frame of some of the fan base in that he wants to see a proactive move in which we trade for a flashy, top six guy. If it's the first option I think we will safely retain all three. If it's the second option that's fine, but he and the other two will have to give a bit of a discount to keep the owners from losing money. If it's the third option then he would surely know it would take trading one of the big three, likely another roster player, perhaps a prospect, and picks. That's a lot to give up. It could be worth it if that deal even exists.

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08-23-2011, 04:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ThirdManIn View Post
When you look at the very limited amount of those types of flashy offensive guys it makes you wonder what Weber is wanting to see Poile do. I wonder if his expectations are realistic (re-sign Suter and Rinne, trade for a guy like AK), if he's wanting ownership to start ponying up more cash to go after some free agents next season (Semin, Parise, Penner), or if he is of the same mind frame of some of the fan base in that he wants to see a proactive move in which we trade for a flashy, top six guy. If it's the first option I think we will safely retain all three. If it's the second option that's fine, but he and the other two will have to give a bit of a discount to keep the owners from losing money. If it's the third option then he would surely know it would take trading one of the big three, likely another roster player, perhaps a prospect, and picks. That's a lot to give up. It could be worth it if that deal even exists.
give a reason for the fans to keep showing up ?

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08-23-2011, 04:10 PM
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So, everyone realizes that if the powerplay would just not completely suck this year the team will jump 5-10 spots in the offensive rankings, right? 5-on-5 they were a very decent scoring team last year. It was just the horrific powerplay that kept them buried in the total offense category.

They don't need a 100-point player or 40-goal scorer brought in. They just need a more effective powerplay strategy. Figure out a way to get up to a middle-of-the-road powerplay percentage and watch everyone scratching their heads over how improved the offense is this year.

There might not be any "scary" names on that offense, but there's a lot of guys there who can score 20+ goals and a couple with 30+ potential. We know Hornqvist can do it. Kostitsyn might be able to with a full healthy season. And if O'Reilly and Wilson (assuming they're on a line together) can find some chemistry I wouldn't be shocked to see 20+ out of each of them. Remember that Cal was leading the team in points before breaking his leg, and a skilled setup man could shake things loose for Wilson.

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08-23-2011, 04:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ThirdManIn View Post
When you look at the very limited amount of those types of flashy offensive guys it makes you wonder what Weber is wanting to see Poile do. I wonder if his expectations are realistic (re-sign Suter and Rinne, trade for a guy like AK), if he's wanting ownership to start ponying up more cash to go after some free agents next season (Semin, Parise, Penner), or if he is of the same mind frame of some of the fan base in that he wants to see a proactive move in which we trade for a flashy, top six guy. If it's the first option I think we will safely retain all three. If it's the second option that's fine, but he and the other two will have to give a bit of a discount to keep the owners from losing money. If it's the third option then he would surely know it would take trading one of the big three, likely another roster player, perhaps a prospect, and picks. That's a lot to give up. It could be worth it if that deal even exists.
How much money will the owners be loosing as compared to the amount of money they gain by going further in the playoffs is there a number on this? On the 2nd option. Maybe Weber is not priviledged to the owners expense as we are not. How much money did the owners make by going to another of playoffs 3 games which totaled 6 altogether. Another that hasn't been mentioned in the Philly trade is that Carter and Richards were under scrutiny for their behavior and when your winning that is swept under the rug but not if you get swept out of the second round and your paying them top money. Another thing is AK up for trade and what does Mtl want for him or is that speculation?

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08-23-2011, 04:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave is a killer View Post
give a reason for the fans to keep showing up ?
That would be a bonus. If we spend right to the midpoint we don't lose out on any revenue sharing money anyway, as the second tier is meant to help teams get to the midpoint itself (i.e. if a team spends $500k less than the midpoint then they are allowed the $500k, or that's my understanding anyway). I guess it's about whether or not the owners are willing to potentially lose money, and if so, how much?

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Originally Posted by roseyc View Post
How much money will the owners be loosing as compared to the amount of money they gain by going further in the playoffs is there a number on this? On the 2nd option. Maybe Weber is not priviledged to the owners expense as we are not. How much money did the owners make by going to another of playoffs 3 games which totaled 6 altogether. Another that hasn't been mentioned in the Philly trade is that Carter and Richards were under scrutiny for their behavior and when your winning that is swept under the rug but not if you get swept out of the second round and your paying them top money. Another thing is AK up for trade and what does Mtl want for him or is that speculation?
First, I'm not sure what the exact revenues last year were, or what the play off revenues were. Also, I'd imagine Weber at least has some idea of what the team's budget is, but that's just speculation. The thing with play off revenues is that you can't wisely spend it on a player unless that player will only be on the team for a single year since you aren't guaranteed to have that same revenue in the following season(s).

Second, I don't think Philly's being swept in the second round played a role in those two being traded, or at least not for financial reasons. There is speculation that the two enjoyed partying entirely too much, and (Richards specifically) weren't open to toning it down. Maybe they were busy partying during that series, and the management felt that enough was enough (I'm actually watching game 4 right now)

Third, the AK thing was first brought up because we have his brother and need a forward, but it was quickly determined that the teams don't make good trading partners. Montreal needs offense basically as badly as we do. Then, a story came out of Belarus that AK wasn't happy with the role he was made to play last year. It's all speculation, as he never said anything about wanting out of Montreal. Since they need offense, and he was third most productive player last season, I have a hard time believing he'll be going anywhere unless he seriously begins causing problems.

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08-23-2011, 04:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ThirdManIn View Post
That would be a bonus. If we spend right to the midpoint we don't lose out on any revenue sharing money anyway, as the second tier is meant to help teams get to the midpoint itself (i.e. if a team spends $500k less than the midpoint then they are allowed the $500k, or that's my understanding anyway). I guess it's about whether or not the owners are willing to potentially lose money, and if so, how much?



First, I'm not sure what the exact revenues last year were, or what the play off revenues were. Also, I'd imagine Weber at least has some idea of what the team's budget is, but that's just speculation. The thing with play off revenues is that you can't wisely spend it on a player unless that player will only be on the team for a single year since you aren't guaranteed to have that same revenue in the following season(s).

Second, I don't think Philly's being swept in the second round played a role in those two being traded, or at least not for financial reasons. There is speculation that the two enjoyed partying entirely too much, and (Richards specifically) weren't open to toning it down. Maybe they were busy partying during that series, and the management felt that enough was enough (I'm actually watching game 4 right now)

Third, the AK thing was first brought up because we have his brother and need a forward, but it was quickly determined that the teams don't make good trading partners. Montreal needs offense basically as badly as we do. Then, a story came out of Belarus that AK wasn't happy with the role he was made to play last year. It's all speculation, as he never said anything about wanting out of Montreal. Since they need offense, and he was third most productive player last season, I have a hard time believing he'll be going anywhere unless he seriously begins causing problems.
I should've qualified my answer with "at a higher rate"

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08-23-2011, 04:45 PM
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There's a lot of talk about Poile needing to do "something." "Something" is dangerous ... "something" is Vacicek ... "something" is V2 ... "something" is making a move just for the sake of making the move and the latest rumblings are that the more expensive and flashy, the better.

We need a legit top line winger who at least knows that there is such a thing as playing defense even if they aren't great at it. They have to put forth some effort. They also can't cost more than about $4-5mil or so if we're going to lock up the big three and keep most of the rest of the top six. There is the right move out there somewhere. I haven't figured out who it is or what we give up to get them ... but that move is out there. Doing "something" could very well make doing the right thing impossible.

Arm chair GM is easy ... but notice how few of us have gotten a call from a team with a job offer to do it for real.

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08-23-2011, 05:09 PM
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Note: Last year to be a top line (Top 90) forward in goals you have to have 21.

Nashville has SK and Hornqvist and Fisher is close with 19. We know that Erat can score this many. We know Legwand could.

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08-23-2011, 05:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 101st_fan View Post
There's a lot of talk about Poile needing to do "something." "Something" is dangerous ... "something" is Vacicek ... "something" is V2 ... "something" is making a move just for the sake of making the move and the latest rumblings are that the more expensive and flashy, the better.

We need a legit top line winger who at least knows that there is such a thing as playing defense even if they aren't great at it. They have to put forth some effort. They also can't cost more than about $4-5mil or so if we're going to lock up the big three and keep most of the rest of the top six. There is the right move out there somewhere. I haven't figured out who it is or what we give up to get them ... but that move is out there. Doing "something" could very well make doing the right thing impossible.

Arm chair GM is easy ... but notice how few of us have gotten a call from a team with a job offer to do it for real.
Here is a list of forwards making between $4m and $6.5m (I figure we can send some salary back in a trade). Wingers first, since that's the biggest need, and then centers.

Left Wings (most expensive to least)
Ryan Smyth (EDM)
Daniel Sedin (VAN)
Henrik Zetterberg (DET)
Patrik Elias (NJD)
Zach Parise (NJD)
Martin Havlat (SJS)
Kristian Huselius (CLB)
Ryan Malone (TBL)
Erik Cole (MTL)
Ville Leino (BUF)
Andrew Ladd (WPG)
Milan Michalek (OTT)
Loui Eriksson (DAL)
David Booth (FLA)
Dustin Penner (LAK)
Brenden Morrow (DAL)
Milan Lucic (BOS)
Jason Blake (ANA)

Right Wings
Daniel Briere (PHI)
Patrick Kane (CHI)
Martin St Louis (TBL)
Corey Perry (ANA)
Jason Pominville (BUF)
Marian Hossa (CHI)
Bobby Ryan (ANA)
Brian Rolston (NYI)
Brian Gionta (MTL)
Daniel Alfredsson (OTT)
Shane Doan (PHX)
Ryan Callahan (NYR)
Joffrey Lupul (TOR)
Scott Hartnell (PHI)
Ales Hemsky (EDM)
Drew Stafford (BUF)

Ok there are a ******** of centers, so here is the site I'm using. Sorry, but I just don't feel like typing all of the names out since I don't think this will lead to much of a discussion anyway, though I hope it does. If I get some time tomorrow I'll come back and add more (like goals, assists, real salary, etc)

http://nhlnumbers.com/players?positi...ort=&year=2012

The numbers I used were based on cap hit, and not actual salary. Anyone who wants to toss around trade ideas should first look at the other team's needs (i.e. Montreal needs offense, Toronto needs offense, SJS needs bottom six depth, ANA needs bottom six depth, etc), then make a pitch that at least tries to get the value right, and then check the actual salary of the player.

One team that is interesting is Ottawa. They are obviously going to be going through a rebuild, and could use some of the young players we have. I don't know that I'd be interested in getting Alfredsson unless we don't have to give up a lot. The guy is nearly 40. Spezza is a great center, but he also makes $8m in real salary over the next two seasons. Michalek has fallen off.

edit: something else to look at in a player is PP production. If we can get a forward who is able to produce on the PP our offense all of the sudden becomes much scarier.


Last edited by ThirdManIn: 08-23-2011 at 05:21 PM.
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08-23-2011, 05:32 PM
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Andrew Ladd is interesting. Only one pretty good year, but in Chicago he was seeing 12-15 minutes of TOI. In Atlanta, he was seeing more like 18-21 minutes with PP time, and his stats reflect that. 29G 30A 59Pts (PP stats: 9G 9A 18Pts) Atlanta fans are more familiar with that team's needs than I am. Would Nashville and Winnipeg make good trading partners? If so, what would their needs be?

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08-23-2011, 05:55 PM
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Don't see any world where Ladd is available. He's their captain and he just signed a pretty long extension at an ok price. You know, like the complete opposite of our captain.

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08-23-2011, 05:57 PM
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Don't see any world where Ladd is available. He's their captain and he just signed a pretty long extension at an ok price. You know, like the complete opposite of our captain.
Yeah I forgot he is their captain. Scratch that then. Anyway, just throwing out ideas to see if anything sticks.

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08-23-2011, 06:00 PM
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Hey, didn't say it was a bad plan. He'd be a pretty great fit in Nashville.

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08-24-2011, 12:41 PM
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Separated this discussion from the all inclusive Weber thread. Some great research here by ThirdManIn to discuss regarding the realities of our expectations to land a 30+ goal scorer.

Personally, I've always felt that we win because of balance among our 4 lines. We definitely lack a top-6 goal scoring winger, however if we can find someone to plug in there in the interim and continue to increase the level of talent among our bottom-6...I think we're in good shape for now and can wait a bit for the right opportunity to present itself to land that elusive forward...

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08-24-2011, 12:46 PM
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I agree. The ability for the team to force the opposing coach to take a risk on putting his weaker defensive players out against a line with an ability to score is what makes our goals-by-committee plan work. When I finish lunch I'll create a list of wingers who make between $3m and $4m, and I might try to include point totals for those players.

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08-24-2011, 12:54 PM
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Need Radulov.

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08-24-2011, 01:04 PM
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Need Radulov.
This. I've wondered this offseason if Poile has been trying to Radulov here quicker than 12/13.

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08-24-2011, 01:08 PM
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This. I've wondered this offseason if Poile has been trying to Radulov here quicker than 12/13.
Not possible, I think. Radulov has already been practicing and what not with Salavet UFA. He wont be here this season

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08-24-2011, 01:10 PM
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Not possible, I think. Radulov has already been practicing and what not with Salavet UFA. He wont be here this season
I'm sure you're right. I just wonder, with rumors of the team's financial trouble, if Poile is talking with the team and Radulov behind closed doors. Wishful thinking I guess.

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08-24-2011, 01:40 PM
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Wingers making $3m-$4m, beginning with left wingers, and in order from highest paid to lowest...

Wojtek Wolski (NYR) - real salary next year: $4m. Production last year: 73 GP 12G 23A 35pts 1PPG 2PPA. Rumors circulated that the Rangers might be looking to buy him out, but obviously didn't. The Rangers finished 14th in GF and 5th in GA. They have a fairly well balanced stock of prospects. They could want to move his cap hit before the deadline if they are in a position to be a buyer and want an upgrade since they only have $1.364m in cap space.

Chris Kuntiz (PIT) - real salary next year: $4m. Production last year: 66GP 23G 25A 48pts 7PPG 4PPA (on a pretty bad power play). I don't see a trade for Kunitz being realistic since the Penguins always seem to be looking for relatively cheap wingers to play with Crosby, but him being their fourth highest paid forward and then only having slightly more than $1.5m in cap space he could be moved if, and only if, they have another move in the works as an upgrade. Not likely.

Alex Tanguay (CGY) - real salary next year: $3.5m. Production last year: 79GP 22G 47A 69pts 3PPG 17 PPA while playing on a top 10 PP with Iginla. Calgary is interesting because they could use some defense. Depending on how they are looking by the trade deadline they could legitimately need a rebuild, but the question is whether or not management will see it the same way. Their defensive prospects are very weak, so I think if he were put on the block a deal could be reached involving one of our bluechip blueline prospects. This is a possibility. He will be 32 in Nov, and his deal carries him until the age of 36 at a cap hit of $3.5m, which is also the real salary for the full term.

Simon Gagne (LAK) - going to skip over this one for now since he was recently acquired, and is unlikely to be moved. I'll come back to him.

Rene Bourque (CGY) - real salary next season: $4m. Production last season: 80GP 27G 23A 50pts 6PPG 9PPA. Similar to Tanguay, Bourque could be moved if Calgary decides to begin a rebuild. Though Bourque makes $500k more in real salary this year, his term is $1.5m cheaper over the course of the contract than Tanguay. Couple that with him being two years younger, and I think he would stay in the event of a rebuild. Still worth looking at.

Andrei Kostitsyn (MTL) - I will come back to AK since he has been discussed in depth already.

Clarke MacArthur (TOR) - I will come back to MacArthur mainly because I feel Toronto and Nashville make bad trading partners. He is young, so unlikely to be moved in the event of a team collapse (which I think is unlikely in and of itself). If he is being shopped it's likely because his numbers have dropped off from his one impressive season.

Matt Moulson (NYI) - real salary next year: $2.5m Production last season: 82GP 31G 22A 53pts 9G 6A. Moulson I think would be a perfect addition to the team, however with deHaan and Harmonic I'm not so sure NYI would be looking for what we are able to offer. This is certainly a deal worth discussing, though.

Evander Kane (WPG) - skipping Kane because what are the chances?

Ray Whitney (PHX) - skipping for now due to age and because Phoenix will need salary in return so they can stay above the floor.

Jussi Jokinen (CAR) - real salary next year: $3m. Production last year: 70GP 19G 33A 52pts 8PPG 10PPA. Unlikely, but probably worth looking at.

Niklas Hagman (CGY) - skipping because I don't feel like we need him.

Drew Stafford (BUF)
Justin Williams (LAK)
Ryane Clowe (SJS)
Michael Ryder (DAL)
Scottie Upshall (FLA)
Dainuis Zubrus (NJD)
Jaromir Jagr (PHI)
Dustin Brown (LAK)
Kris Versteeg (FLA)
Radim Vrbata (PHX)
Devin Setoguchi (MIN)
Joel Ward (WAS)... haha
Colby Armstrong (TOR)
Michael Grabner (NYI)
Ales Kotalik (BUF)

That's essentially what I plan on doing for all of these players that I feel are within our price range. If anyone would like to pitch in it would be appreciated. I'll continue later. The sources I've been using are nhlnumbers.com, capgeek.com, yahoo sports, the team stats page on NHL.com, and hockeysfuture.com for quick glance prospect info per team.

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08-24-2011, 01:41 PM
  #23
ThirdManIn
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Originally Posted by I Will Son View Post
Not possible, I think. Radulov has already been practicing and what not with Salavet UFA. He wont be here this season
All of the realistic Radulov discussion I've seen is in regards to his potential return for the 2012-2013 season. He still has a year left on his Russian contract.

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08-24-2011, 01:51 PM
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Roman Yoshi
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I am not asking for Parise I am asking for AK or Little.

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08-24-2011, 01:53 PM
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I Will Son
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Maybe a young player like Josh Bailey could use a change of scenery. I still think he could end up being a pretty good scorer.

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