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Old
08-24-2011, 10:08 AM
  #26
livewell68
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
If you want to look for a "stolen game" you need to look at game logs, and Luongos game log was *ing awful. However, it also captures his good games.

We don't have it for hockey, but something akin to a QS would be good for goalies.
Just a question... I'm not insulting you or anything but are you always this pesimistic?

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08-24-2011, 10:21 AM
  #27
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Just a question... I'm not insulting you or anything but are you always this pesimistic?
You haven't been a Flyer fan very long, right? This is the second off season in a row where we needed a little tweaking and instead got knee jerk reactions. Last year it was dumping Gagne for salary cap reasons and bringing in, among others, Zherdev. Signing Leighton to a 2 year contract at too high a cap hit when he should have let him walk. Signing Shelley to a 3 year, $1.1 million cap hit per YEAR for doing...nothing. This year Snider blew all chances of negotiating with Bryz or Vokoun to hell by announcing the goaltending situation would be fixed and catering to Bryz. 9 years with a NMC, why not make him mayor as well? Getting rid of Richards and Carter when they were the only defensively responsible forwards was insane and while it's nice to have prospects, giving away pick after pick over the years because Homer screws up the cap and CBA repeatedly shouldn't have been allowed to happen.

So, no, it's really hard to be optimistic and excited about the upcoming season when every off season is a cluster**** and the guy doing the cluster****ing gets away with it and somehow keeps his job.

You want to see a good GM? Look at Alex Anthopoulos of the Toronto Blue Jays. The guy makes things happen and he has a plan in place, he does things the right way and the team is looking good going forward. I wish he was the Flyers' GM.

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08-24-2011, 10:22 AM
  #28
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Originally Posted by jags6868 View Post
Just a question... I'm not insulting you or anything but are you always this pesimistic?
No, I was pretty optimistic in the big picture before we nuked our forwards for a couple of years.

The bigger question is why you picked a post about Tim Thomas, Luongo, and game logs out to ask a question about pessimism.

Of course, you also think a 70 pt season from Jagr is pessimistic, so not really sure you are a good judge.

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08-24-2011, 11:01 AM
  #29
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Our forwards are terrible defensively on paper.
Exactly. We removed Richards and Carter (not to mention Gagne) - the best two way forwards on our team. Down the middle we have Giroux (not bad), Briere (not good), Schenn (Rookie) and Betts (OK). Just how much better than Bobs 2.50 and .915 do people think Bryz is going to be? Maybe last years number of 2.48 and .921? If people are expecting this guy to stand on his head leading us to the top of the conference with a weak defensive team - YOU NEED TO TEMPER YOUR EXPECTATIONS. Flyers have good D-men, but we are extremely weak collectively at the forward position - almost everyone in the top 9 is "OK" at best

I am still excited for this season, but I don't think we are a cup contender. I think we will be in the 6-10 group of teams who one day are in 6th and lose 2 or 3 in a row and you are on the outside of the playoffs. I hope we make the playoffs this year, but.....I'm not sure.

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08-24-2011, 11:04 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by MsWoof View Post
You haven't been a Flyer fan very long, right? This is the second off season in a row where we needed a little tweaking and instead got knee jerk reactions. Last year it was dumping Gagne for salary cap reasons and bringing in, among others, Zherdev. Signing Leighton to a 2 year contract at too high a cap hit when he should have let him walk. Signing Shelley to a 3 year, $1.1 million cap hit per YEAR for doing...nothing. This year Snider blew all chances of negotiating with Bryz or Vokoun to hell by announcing the goaltending situation would be fixed and catering to Bryz. 9 years with a NMC, why not make him mayor as well? Getting rid of Richards and Carter when they were the only defensively responsible forwards was insane and while it's nice to have prospects, giving away pick after pick over the years because Homer screws up the cap and CBA repeatedly shouldn't have been allowed to happen.

So, no, it's really hard to be optimistic and excited about the upcoming season when every off season is a cluster**** and the guy doing the cluster****ing gets away with it and somehow keeps his job.

You want to see a good GM? Look at Alex Anthopoulos of the Toronto Blue Jays. The guy makes things happen and he has a plan in place, he does things the right way and the team is looking good going forward. I wish he was the Flyers' GM.


I agree with you on this. I live in Toronto and I love the Blue Jays and I feel their future is very bright. You have to admit though, the Bautista thing was a fluke, no one could forsee him becoming the best player in baseball, a solid veteran sure, but this...

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08-24-2011, 11:11 AM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jags6868 View Post
[/B]

I agree with you on this. I live in Toronto and I love the Blue Jays and I feel their future is very bright. You have to admit though, the Bautista thing was a fluke, no one could forsee him becoming the best player in baseball, a solid veteran sure, but this...
Getting Rasmus and Lawrie were great moves. The guy just gets it, he goes out and initiates deals. People were worried that he would get walked on because he's so young but I think he's brilliant.

I'm in Scarborough, btw. I've been hanging out on the Leafs' board a lot this summer for Jays talk.

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08-24-2011, 11:23 AM
  #32
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Getting Rasmus and Lawrie were great moves. The guy just gets it, he goes out and initiates deals. People were worried that he would get walked on because he's so young but I think he's brilliant.

I'm in Scarborough, btw. I've been hanging out on the Leafs' board a lot this summer for Jays talk.
I'm in Scarborough too lol

I never liked the Leafs much though.

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08-24-2011, 11:41 AM
  #33
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I'm in Scarborough too lol

I never liked the Leafs much though.
I'm near the Bluffs!

Dropped the Leafs in 1974 and never looked back!

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08-24-2011, 12:27 PM
  #34
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I'm near the Bluffs!

Dropped the Leafs in 1974 and never looked back!
I'm closer to the border of North York-Markham.

1974 eh? I wasn't even born yet lol

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08-24-2011, 12:39 PM
  #35
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If they build chemistry quickly and manage to stay healthy, I can see a Cup run (along with several other minor variables). Otherwise, I'm expecting a solid playoff run. There's no reason why we shouldn't make the playoffs...unless this team is decimated by injuries.

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08-24-2011, 01:02 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by phillyfanatic View Post
Exactly. We removed Richards and Carter (not to mention Gagne) - the best two way forwards on our team. Down the middle we have Giroux (not bad), Briere (not good), Schenn (Rookie) and Betts (OK). Just how much better than Bobs 2.50 and .915 do people think Bryz is going to be? Maybe last years number of 2.48 and .921? If people are expecting this guy to stand on his head leading us to the top of the conference with a weak defensive team - YOU NEED TO TEMPER YOUR EXPECTATIONS. Flyers have good D-men, but we are extremely weak collectively at the forward position - almost everyone in the top 9 is "OK" at best

I am still excited for this season, but I don't think we are a cup contender. I think we will be in the 6-10 group of teams who one day are in 6th and lose 2 or 3 in a row and you are on the outside of the playoffs. I hope we make the playoffs this year, but.....I'm not sure.
Think of it this way:
Bryz went to the playoffs with the coyotes.

Now do you see why we will make the playoffs?


GAA and SV% are probably the worst statistical indicator in the NHL...
No substitute for watching the goalie.

I think Bryz will be the best breakaway stopper we've had since nitty. We can open up our game a bit b/c we HAVE A ****ING GOALIE!!! (who else is excited?)

Pronger had a good quote where he said (essentially ) "now I can stay in position and not be forced to block every shot b/c the goalie will block them."

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08-24-2011, 01:07 PM
  #37
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Its a season full of ifs......


If Pronger come back for a full season...
If Jagr scores 80 Points and is full healthy...
If Bryzgalov plays like everyone expect from him...
If Timonen can play in the playoff like last year before christmas...
If Giroux and JVR can life up the expactations
If Meszaros will play as good as last season
If were lucky and don´t have lot of players injured in the playoffs
If Voracek will have a breakout season
If Schenn will make the team and plays good 3rd line hockey
if
if
if
if


Than we can play a good role in the play offs. BUT IF NOT WERE OUT OF THE PLAYOFFS!


I wish we could play without all this ifs.....

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08-24-2011, 01:42 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by tuckrr View Post
Think of it this way:
Bryz went to the playoffs with the coyotes.

Now do you see why we will make the playoffs?


GAA and SV% are probably the worst statistical indicator in the NHL...
No substitute for watching the goalie.

I think Bryz will be the best breakaway stopper we've had since nitty. We can open up our game a bit b/c we HAVE A ****ING GOALIE!!! (who else is excited?)

Pronger had a good quote where he said (essentially ) "now I can stay in position and not be forced to block every shot b/c the goalie will block them."
How is SVPCT a bad indicator of how a goalie is playing exactly?

That PHX team isn't nearly as bad as you seem to think, and it was also well coached (which is a HUGE factor in regular season success).

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08-24-2011, 02:01 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by phillyfanatic View Post
Exactly. We removed Richards and Carter (not to mention Gagne) - the best two way forwards on our team. Down the middle we have Giroux (not bad), Briere (not good), Schenn (Rookie) and Betts (OK). Just how much better than Bobs 2.50 and .915 do people think Bryz is going to be? Maybe last years number of 2.48 and .921? If people are expecting this guy to stand on his head leading us to the top of the conference with a weak defensive team - YOU NEED TO TEMPER YOUR EXPECTATIONS. Flyers have good D-men, but we are extremely weak collectively at the forward position - almost everyone in the top 9 is "OK" at best

I am still excited for this season, but I don't think we are a cup contender. I think we will be in the 6-10 group of teams who one day are in 6th and lose 2 or 3 in a row and you are on the outside of the playoffs. I hope we make the playoffs this year, but.....I'm not sure.
Good post, and I agree with our positioning in the race for the playoffs. I can't wait to see the identity this team takes. The way I look at it we weren't good enough to beat Pittsburgh or Washington with Richards and Carter so management blew it up, honestly as of now I compare us to a possibly more offensive buffalo. We have a few more game breakers compared to some of the middle lower pack teams but all and all we will struggle to get in. I know this has been discussed at every level but in my opinion Washington, and Pittsburgh are locks, the next level is where we could fit with the rags, canes,devs, habs, and tampa, and the lower grouping of nyi,wpg, ott, tor should not include us, with that I again agree that at best we should be a 6 through 8 team.

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08-24-2011, 02:23 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
How is SVPCT a bad indicator of how a goalie is playing exactly?

That PHX team isn't nearly as bad as you seem to think, and it was also well coached (which is a HUGE factor in regular season success).
because if goalie A has 30 shots and 27 of them are in weak scoring areas and goalie B has 30 shots but 15 of them come in the slot, guess who's going to have the better save %?

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08-24-2011, 02:35 PM
  #41
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How is SVPCT a bad indicator of how a goalie is playing exactly?

That PHX team isn't nearly as bad as you seem to think, and it was also well coached (which is a HUGE factor in regular season success).
Because it neglects the 'quality of the chance'

Different teams play different styles, so they give up different types of chances. Some teams have low shots against, others high, and some give up more breakaways, others screened shots.

Its not about evening out the statistics over time, its that there is an underlying variable that is team play/style (which is fundamentally different).

(i didnt even go into rebound control)

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08-24-2011, 02:41 PM
  #42
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What does rebound control have to do with a team limiting scoring chances?

A goalie taking a hit to his SVPCT because he has bad rebound control is all on the goalie.

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08-24-2011, 02:51 PM
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When I think about it rationally, I don't believe we have a shot at the cup this season. As others have stated there're too many question marks around this team, and the forwards aren't good enough defensively.

I do think we will make it to the playoffs however, and once there everything can happen (and here my rational part of the brain stops and doesn't think about the whole bit of how extremely unlikely it is to make it all the way unless you have home ice advantage).

Washington and Boston are the frontrunners in the east I think.

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08-24-2011, 02:52 PM
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Originally Posted by phillyfanatic View Post
Exactly. We removed Richards and Carter (not to mention Gagne) - the best two way forwards on our team. Down the middle we have Giroux (not bad), Briere (not good), Schenn (Rookie) and Betts (OK). Just how much better than Bobs 2.50 and .915 do people think Bryz is going to be? Maybe last years number of 2.48 and .921? If people are expecting this guy to stand on his head leading us to the top of the conference with a weak defensive team - YOU NEED TO TEMPER YOUR EXPECTATIONS. Flyers have good D-men, but we are extremely weak collectively at the forward position - almost everyone in the top 9 is "OK" at best

I am still excited for this season, but I don't think we are a cup contender. I think we will be in the 6-10 group of teams who one day are in 6th and lose 2 or 3 in a row and you are on the outside of the playoffs. I hope we make the playoffs this year, but.....I'm not sure.
I don't think its fair at all to say that we're extremely weak defensively at forward. Did we take a hit at the Center position? Absolutely. But the Wings greatly improved. Hartnell's becoming more defensive responsible, as is JvR. Holmstrom, Nodl, Talbot, Read and Simmonds will be serviceable at worst. Voracek and Jagr I'm not too sure about what to expect from them, but if they're containing the puck in the offensive zone then them playing defense is the least of my worries.

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08-24-2011, 03:04 PM
  #45
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I wouldn't lump Read into the "defensively serviceable" column. He hasn't even made the NHL team yet.

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08-24-2011, 03:14 PM
  #46
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What does rebound control have to do with a team limiting scoring chances?

A goalie taking a hit to his SVPCT because he has bad rebound control is all on the goalie.
That's where bad goalies can look good (see boucher ) great defensmen like pronger clear the pucks, and make the goalies sv pct better.

But doing so comes at a cost, it means he can't focus on the outlet pass (offense)

Goalies need to be watched to be assessed...im all for statistics, but they aren't the only indicator of skill/success.

It's unnerving when jester acts as if statistics are an absolute indicator, when they obviously are not, there are so many variables at play (especially with goaltending stats), that watching is always superior to reading.


(Doing both is preferable)

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08-24-2011, 03:18 PM
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That's where bad goalies can look good (see boucher ) great defensmen like pronger clear the pucks, and make the goalies sv pct better.

But doing so comes at a cost, it means he can't focus on the outlet pass (offense)

Goalies need to be watched to be assessed...im all for statistics, but they aren't the only indicator of skill/success.

It's unnerving when jester acts as if statistics are an absolute indicator, when they obviously are not, there are so many variables at play (especially with goaltending stats), that watching is always superior to reading.


(Doing both is preferable)
No, a goalie with bad rebound control will get taken advantage of in the long run. Example: Leighton. A goalie with good rebound control won't allow second opportunities...because he'll have the puck. Bad goalies leave the puck out there and give the other teams more chances to bang it home.

edit: the puck won't always bounce to a teammate. Also, Pronger isn't always on the ice...but the goalie's bad rebound control is.

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08-24-2011, 03:36 PM
  #48
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No, a goalie with bad rebound control will get taken advantage of in the long run. Example: Leighton. A goalie with good rebound control won't allow second opportunities...because he'll have the puck. Bad goalies leave the puck out there and give the other teams more chances to bang it home.

edit: the puck won't always bounce to a teammate. Also, Pronger isn't always on the ice...but the goalie's bad rebound control is.
I agree to some extent, but at the same time I agree with tuckrr that just going by statistics you lose something very vital. Leighton posted fantastic numbers for us, and yet most of us here were livid when Homer didn't upgrade the goalie position last summer. Because we were watching the games and saw what was going on (whatever the hell that was).

I don't think Bryzgalov will be that big of a difference from what Bobrovsky gave us in the regular season, however. He might be a bit more composed and he is probably a better communicator with the players (for obvious reasons) so the rest of the team may be a little bit more calm in the defensive zone, which would be a good thing. Bryzgalov is obviously a better goalie, but Bobrovsky was very good last season, especially for a rookie playing his first year in NA.

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08-24-2011, 03:38 PM
  #49
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I'm not saying that stats are the end-all-be-all when it comes to judging a goaltender(Although in many cases, they can go a long way). I also think it's pretty important to watch the guy play. I just don't think his comments on rebound control add up.

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08-24-2011, 04:10 PM
  #50
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I'm not saying that stats are the end-all-be-all when it comes to judging a goaltender(Although in many cases, they can go a long way). I also think it's pretty important to watch the guy play. I just don't think his comments on rebound control add up.
Fair enough.

Btw, I think we're in the same boat with regards to the goalie situation for us anyway. While happy that we finally have not only a legitimate starter, but one who is easily in the top half of starters as well, we kind of would have preferred Vokoun.

I'm of the belief that Vokoun is a better goalie than Bryzgalov right now and I also think that Bobrovsky could become a really good goalie in a couple of years, so for me the choice would have been easy which goalie to go after this summer. Homer went with Bryzgalov however and I hope we'll be happy with that for the next nine years.

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