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The Search for the Elusive Goal Scorer (The Armchair GM thread)

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Old
08-24-2011, 03:08 PM
  #26
TMI
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Ok. So how do we make a trade work for AK, Little, or Bailey? That's what I'm wanting discussed in here. It's definitely a start to get names put out there, but it isn't as simple as wanting a player. A deal has to get done to get that player.

Kostitsyn hasn't yet said he wants out of Montreal, and Montreal finished last season with the same G/G% as we did. If he does decide to want out then he would be available, but if they are giving up a top six forward between now and the deadline they are dealing from an area of weakness. I think getting AK is very possible next summer, but short of him pulling a Randy Moss or Montreal falling completely out of the play off race before February I just don't see a trade. It'd be nice, though.

Bryan Little is in a similar boat without the personality question marks. He's a young, good forward on a team that, while finishing 14th in total offense, isn't in a position to give up good, young players. Especially cheap ones. They would be interested in some of our defensive prospects, but it just seems like it would take a pretty big overpayment to get him.

Bailey is interesting, though I think obtaining him would be tough for the same reasons as obtaining Little would be tough. NYI is still in rebuild mode, but I don't think they will be for much longer. They have some pretty good, young defensemen.

What we have to offer right now is likely something like this, and keep in mind not all of these players are available for just any deal: Wilson, Blum, Geoffrion, Halischuk, Josi, Ellis, Ekholm, Watson, Beck, Budish, Latta, and picks.

To get AK before the season starts I wouldn't be surprised if Montreal asks for Wilson, as they are in a similar position as we are in terms of holes needing to be filled. To get Little I think Winnipeg would ask for Blum or maybe two of Josi/Ellis/Ekholm, as they will be needing young, cheap talent and defense seems to be their biggest weakness. To get Bailey I think NYI would be interested in some bottom six depth and picks, but as SLake pointed out we could strengthen our bottom six and find the scoring we're looking for.

I think Bailey is the most likely of those three named. We have the pieces necessary, but is he the player?

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08-24-2011, 03:16 PM
  #27
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I would be more than willing to trade Wilson for Little. Little is a true Preds player. Not convinced Wilson is

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08-24-2011, 03:28 PM
  #28
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Would you be willing to part with Wilson plus a d-prospect? I don't see them trading straight up. As of right now Wilson would be a downgrade in their forward corps, and they'd still have the problems in their defensive depth.

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08-24-2011, 03:30 PM
  #29
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My problem with this whole scenario is we have posters who act like we MUST get a guy in the Semin/Parise scoring range and that Poile would be able to do it if he wasnt such a lazy/cowardly dipwad

then we have discussions about adding a guys with potential to be big scorers, like AK

well, which do we actually need?? we have lots of guys with potential, including our newest addition, Bergfors.

so if you are talking about adding a guy like AK, you're talking adding some scoring depth, not a huge dump of additional offense.

will adding scoring depth get us to the next level? and as importantly, will it appease the almighty Weber?

or do we have to shoot for the moon and try to land Parise/Semin/whoever??

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08-24-2011, 03:30 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ThirdManIn View Post
Would you be willing to part with Wilson plus a d-prospect?
As long as said prospect isn't Josi or Ekholm. Probably not Ellis, but if they offered something to offset the cost of Ellis yes.

Little is good defensively, good offensively, and can open the ice up for erat and legwand

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08-24-2011, 03:36 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Joetimo View Post
As long as said prospect isn't Josi or Ekholm. Probably not Ellis, but if they offered something to offset the cost of Ellis yes.

Little is good defensively, good offensively, and can open the ice up for erat and legwand
Trust me, I'd love to get Little on our team. The fact remains that you're trying to obtain a cheap, good, young forward from a team that needs cheap, good, young forwards. Winnipeg isn't likely to be a magnet for free agents any time soon. Even if they are, it looks like the owners are going to wait to see how much revenue can be generated with the limited seating capacity of their arena before spending big bucks. What I'm getting at is trading away Little is to Winnipeg what trading away SK would be for us. Two teams who have a budget, will need revenue sharing, and will be trying to build a winner with pieces in the system and future draft picks trading away one of the best young players. The biggest difference is the Nashville needs forwards more than Winnipeg, and Winnipeg needs defensemen more than Nashville. Wilson might be a starting point if a defensive prospect is included, but I think it's more likely they want a return of something like Blum or Klein plus a forward prospect. Who knows, though? This particular discussion can be aided greatly by some of the Atlanta posters around here.

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08-24-2011, 03:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joetimo View Post
As long as said prospect isn't Josi or Ekholm. Probably not Ellis, but if they offered something to offset the cost of Ellis yes.

Little is good defensively, good offensively, and can open the ice up for erat and legwand
Wilson + Ellis for Little + Stuart

Stuart is a good 5-6 stay at home D who is very physical. We then wouldn't have to use more than one prospect (Josi/Ekholm).

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08-24-2011, 03:45 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by PredsV82 View Post
My problem with this whole scenario is we have posters who act like we MUST get a guy in the Semin/Parise scoring range and that Poile would be able to do it if he wasnt such a lazy/cowardly dipwad

then we have discussions about adding a guys with potential to be big scorers, like AK

well, which do we actually need?? we have lots of guys with potential, including our newest addition, Bergfors.

so if you are talking about adding a guy like AK, you're talking adding some scoring depth, not a huge dump of additional offense.

will adding scoring depth get us to the next level? and as importantly, will it appease the almighty Weber?

or do we have to shoot for the moon and try to land Parise/Semin/whoever??
Speaking for myself here, any mention of wanting a top end forward in a trade was based around having to trade away one of Weber/Suter/Rinne. I'm with SLake in thinking that we aren't far off from strengthening our already effective score-by-committee attack (5-on-5). What I'd like to see if a player who can be used as a bottom six player, but also can help our power play. I HOPE Bergfors is that player. He can essentially be the Cody Franson of our forward corps. He can play protected even strength minutes, but then he can be put out on the powerplay in order to give us that extra weapon. I hope that's how it works, and I assume that is also Poile's hope.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtlantaWhaler View Post
Wilson + Ellis for Little + Stuart

Stuart is a good 5-6 stay at home D who is very physical. We then wouldn't have to use more than one prospect (Josi/Ekholm).
I think I'd do that trade. I really want to see what Ellis can do in the AHL and NHL, and I think that Wilson will progress this year. However, Little is more likely to come in and contribute now than Wilson is, and Ellis still has a lot of questions that will soon be answered.

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08-24-2011, 04:06 PM
  #34
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We're all so focused on the forwards to fix the PP in Nashville while overlooking that we've lacked a true QB on the backend for a while. Ellis could be that piece if his skills transition from juniors to the pros.

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08-24-2011, 04:08 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ThirdManIn View Post
Wingers making $3m-$4m, beginning with left wingers, and in order from highest paid to lowest...
You seem to have left out Brad Boyes. $4m in cap hit and actual salary next year (some sources still say 4.5, but that was last year), and he scored 17-38-55 in 83 games - mostly for St. Louis, but a few for Buffalo as well. And he's much more likely to be available in a trade.

Otherwise, looks good.

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08-24-2011, 04:12 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Viqsi View Post
You seem to have left out Brad Boyes. $4m in cap hit and actual salary next year (some sources still say 4.5, but that was last year), and he scored 17-38-55 in 83 games - mostly for St. Louis, but a few for Buffalo as well. And he's much more likely to be available in a trade.

Otherwise, looks good.
yeah I did, but not on purpose. I likely would have glanced over anything extra on him anyway considering Buffalo doesn't seem to be in a position to need or want to trade him. At least from discussions I've had with Buffalo fans they don't seem to think Boyes is likely to be traded. I'll go back and add him when I go back and add more substance to the rest of the wingers.

edit: actually nhlnumbers has Boyes listed as a center. That's why I didn't add him. I didn't add any centers to either list because it seems like everyone is looking for a winger, and to be honest I didn't think this would result in much discussion so I didn't want to put hours upon hours of thought into it. Now that it looks like it'll be a pretty active thread I plan on going back and adding a ton of information.

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08-24-2011, 04:22 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AtlantaWhaler View Post
Wilson + Ellis for Little + Stuart

Stuart is a good 5-6 stay at home D who is very physical. We then wouldn't have to use more than one prospect (Josi/Ekholm).
But how does this benefit WPG?

You always have to justify the other side since this could be put on the Trade Board.

Of course, there's the hype of Ellis being a protege star, but why would they take Wilson?

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08-24-2011, 04:24 PM
  #38
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That list doesn't include guys on their RFA contracts who haven't hit the big money yet. There are plenty of names out there, some might be targetable, some are never getting on the trade market. In stead of screaming Parise, it's worth a good hard look at any one of other more affordable, probably easier to get, options.

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08-24-2011, 04:25 PM
  #39
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I don't care how it is done. You don't win a Stanley Cup without a top ten offense.

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08-24-2011, 04:41 PM
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I don't care how it is done. You don't win a Stanley Cup without a top ten offense.
"Predators Hockey" with 3 top-9 centers in the lineup last season scored at a rate that had them for top-5 in the league. We aren't that far away...

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08-24-2011, 04:54 PM
  #41
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I don't care how it is done. You don't win a Stanley Cup without a top ten offense.
We didn't win one with a top ten offense in 2006-07. Last season the Preds were 12th in 5on5 scoring ... needs tweaks, not overhaul. They sucked 5on4 ... needs a lot of work.

As I said, the team could use a true top line winger and has a stockpile of 2nd/3rd line type guys. I see a need for a true QB on the first PP unit as well which makes me hesitant to move Ellis just yet. Now to see who is willing to give up what player ... and at what cost.

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08-24-2011, 05:11 PM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ThirdManIn View Post
Wingers making $3m-$4m, beginning with left wingers, and in order from highest paid to lowest...

Wojtek Wolski (NYR) - real salary next year: $4m. Production last year: 73 GP 12G 23A 35pts 1PPG 2PPA. Rumors circulated that the Rangers might be looking to buy him out, but obviously didn't. The Rangers finished 14th in GF and 5th in GA. They have a fairly well balanced stock of prospects. They could want to move his cap hit before the deadline if they are in a position to be a buyer and want an upgrade since they only have $1.364m in cap space.

Chris Kuntiz (PIT) - real salary next year: $4m. Production last year: 66GP 23G 25A 48pts 7PPG 4PPA (on a pretty bad power play). I don't see a trade for Kunitz being realistic since the Penguins always seem to be looking for relatively cheap wingers to play with Crosby, but him being their fourth highest paid forward and then only having slightly more than $1.5m in cap space he could be moved if, and only if, they have another move in the works as an upgrade. Not likely.

Alex Tanguay (CGY) - real salary next year: $3.5m. Production last year: 79GP 22G 47A 69pts 3PPG 17 PPA while playing on a top 10 PP with Iginla. Calgary is interesting because they could use some defense. Depending on how they are looking by the trade deadline they could legitimately need a rebuild, but the question is whether or not management will see it the same way. Their defensive prospects are very weak, so I think if he were put on the block a deal could be reached involving one of our bluechip blueline prospects. This is a possibility. He will be 32 in Nov, and his deal carries him until the age of 36 at a cap hit of $3.5m, which is also the real salary for the full term.

Simon Gagne (LAK) - real salary next year: $4.5m. Production last year: 63GP 17G 23A 40pts 7PPG 8PPA. Unlikely to be moved since he was just recently acquired, but if we were able to get him it would add a good forward who, while getting older, has a contract which reduces by $2m in real salary after this coming season. He is also only signed to a two year deal, which reduces risk if he either begins to fall off more or gets injured. The Kings aren't in need of really anything we have, so I doubt it happens unless they get bent over a table by Doughty, who is unlikely to make more than Weber, and they decide they need to shed some salary to make a deadline move. They have a little over $9.3m in cap room right now without Doughty

Rene Bourque (CGY) - real salary next season: $4m. Production last season: 80GP 27G 23A 50pts 6PPG 9PPA. Similar to Tanguay, Bourque could be moved if Calgary decides to begin a rebuild. Though Bourque makes $500k more in real salary this year, his term is $1.5m cheaper over the course of the contract than Tanguay. Couple that with him being two years younger, and I think he would stay in the event of a rebuild. Still worth looking at.

Andrei Kostitsyn (MTL) - real salary next season: $3.25m. Production last year: 81GP 20G 25A 45pts. Montreal is a poor trading partner seeing as how they need scoring essentially as badly as we do, so jettisoning a top six forward is unlikely unless the hand is forced. With Tirnordi, Weber, and the emergence of Subban they don't need our defensive prospects. Wilson would likely have to go the other way.

Clarke MacArthur (TOR)- real salary last season: $3.25m. Production last season: 82GP 21G 41A 62pts 6PPG 13PPA. Toronto, like Montreal, makes a poor trading partner. Their defense isn't great, but it would take roster players to improve it. They need top six talent, preferably a number 1 center. We don't have that to offer. Wilson would be the starting point here, but it seems like it would take an overpayment for a guy who has one season of great production. Toronto has over $5m in cap space, so that isn't an issue. In fact, they are likely a team with which we will be competing to make a deal for another forward. Luckily for us, they have given up a ton of assets over the last few seasons.

Matt Moulson (NYI) - real salary next year: $2.5m Production last season: 82GP 31G 22A 53pts 9G 6A. Moulson I think would be a perfect addition to the team, however with deHaan and Harmonic I'm not so sure NYI would be looking for what we are able to offer. This is certainly a deal worth discussing, though.

Evander Kane (WPG) - real salary next year: $900k (ELC. $2.2m in bonuses). Production last year: 73GP 19G 24A 43pts 4PPG 4PPA. Seriously... what are the chances that Winnipeg gives up Kane? If anyone can give a good argument, feel free.

Ray Whitney (PHX) - real salary next year: $3m. Production last year: 74GP 17G 40A 57pts 3PPG 23PPG. His 26 PP points are intriguing, but does he get production like that without Doan (10PPG 11PPA)? He will be 40 next May, but his contract also expires next July. It's an interesting possibility since Phoenix may be looking to begin rebuilding with cheap, young players. I think they would be looking for forward prospects or young, cheap roster forwards (Geoffrion, Halischuk, O'Reilly).

Jussi Jokinen (CAR) - real salary next year: $3m. Production last year: 70GP 19G 33A 52pts 8PPG 10PPA. Unlikely, but probably worth talking about.

Niklas Hagman (CGY) - still skipping because... well... I don't ****ing want him.

Drew Stafford (BUF) - real salary next year: $4m. Production last year: 62GP 31G 21A 52pts 11PPG 8PPA (gimme gimme gimme). Buffalo can get below the cap ceiling by sending some players to the minors, so a salary dump isn't necessary. It would take a real offer that evens the salary out or drops a little in Buffalo's favor. Wilson+ is likely the starting point, but the + might have to be more than we want to give. I think Stafford would be absolutely perfect, but the challenges of getting the deal done are very much real.

Justin Williams (LAK) - real salary next year: $3.9m. Production last year: 73GP 22G 35A 57pts 5PPG 8PPA. The challenges will be similar to obtaining Gagne. The two teams don't make very good trading partners, and LA is going to be looking to upgrade if they are trading. They are definitely a favorite to make it out of the West this season.

Ryane Clowe (SJS) - real salary next year: $3.5m Production last season: 75GP 24G 38A 62pts 5PPG 8PPA. Another player I would love to have, but, again, playing for a very real threat to win the WCF. San Jose, like LA, will be looking to upgrade at the deadline if they do anything. Their defense looks to be very scary, so the only hole I see needing filling is goaltending (potentially). Rinne would have to go back the other way I'm afraid.

Michael Ryder (DAL) - real salary next year: $3.5m. Production last season: 79GP 18G 23A 41pts 8PPG 6PPA. Ryder brings the experience of winning a Cup, and Dallas is in a weird position. They could be good, or could be below-average. Their ownership situation makes things tricky. Possibly worth discussing.

Scottie Upshall (FLA) - real salary next year: $3.5m. Production last year: 82GP 22G 12A 34pts 0PPG/A. Florida just got done overpaying some guys just to get above the cap floor. I don't see them looking to get rid of Upshall, and if they do we have to send enough salary back to keep them cap compliant (meaning Hornqvist+prospect, Erat, Legwand, Fisher, or Suter). I say NONONONONONO to trying to get Upshall. Doesn't fill a need.

Dainuis Zubrus (NJD) - real salary next year: $3.4m. Production last season: 79GP 13G 17A 30pts 1PPG 2PPA. Personally, I don't think he is a good target. With Larsson and Merrill coming up NJ doesn't need blueline prospects. They are likely looking for a guy to mold as Brodeur's replacement. All we can offer that they would listen to is Lindback, Engren, Hellberg, or maybe Smith+. No thanks

Jaromir Jagr (PHI) - do I really need to go here? It ain't happening.

Dustin Brown (LAK) - another one I will skip. Anyone else can feel free to add, but this guy is the Kings' captain, and I've gone over reasons why LA isn't likely to be trading with us with Gagne and Williams.

Kris Versteeg (FLA) - see Upshall.

Radim Vrbata (PHX) - real salary next year: $3m. Production last year: 79GP 19G 29A 48pts 10PPG 7PPA. For similar reasons as I mentioned with Ray Whitney, I think this is a possibility. Phoenix could take a tumble in the standings next year, though that isn't a foregone conclusion simply because Bryz left. If they do, I think going after Vrbata at the deadline would be a good idea.

Devin Setoguchi (MIN) - just obtained. Not happening.

Joel Ward (WAS)... haha. Obvious reasons are obvious

Colby Armstrong (TOR) - real salary next year: $3m. Production last year: 50GP 8G 15A 27pts 0PPG/A. Out of all of Toronto's forwards I think this guy is one we could probably pry out. Does anyone really want to, though?

Michael Grabner (NYI) - real salary next year: $3m. Production last year: 76GP 34G 18A 52pts 2PPG 2PPA. A young, very fast, skilled guy. Unlikely to work, but hey... it's fun to talk about right?

Ales Kotalik (BUF) - real salary next season: $3m. Production last year: 26GP 4G 2A 6pts 1PPG 1PPA. Likely one of the players Buffalo drops to the minors to clear cap space. Do. Not. Want.

That's essentially what I plan on doing for all of these players that I feel are within our price range. If anyone would like to pitch in it would be appreciated. I'll continue later. The sources I've been using are nhlnumbers.com, capgeek.com, yahoo sports, the team stats page on NHL.com, and hockeysfuture.com for quick glance prospect info per team.
Info added to original post. I'll go through the list of higher paid forwards later. Taking a break

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08-24-2011, 05:13 PM
  #43
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That list doesn't include guys on their RFA contracts who haven't hit the big money yet. There are plenty of names out there, some might be targetable, some are never getting on the trade market. In stead of screaming Parise, it's worth a good hard look at any one of other more affordable, probably easier to get, options.
That's true. I haven't included guys who make less than $3m with the exception of Kane. I'm trying to break it into parts in order to make it seem less daunting. I'll probably create a simple list for the cheaper guys, and then I'll add info to the more expensive guys.

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08-24-2011, 05:24 PM
  #44
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That's true. I haven't included guys who make less than $3m with the exception of Kane. I'm trying to break it into parts in order to make it seem less daunting. I'll probably create a simple list for the cheaper guys, and then I'll add info to the more expensive guys.
Times like this I miss nhlscap ... they'd email out a cap/salary excel sheet. Merge it with data exported from hockeydb and voila. Now it's almost like doing some work.

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08-24-2011, 05:31 PM
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We didn't win one with a top ten offense in 2006-07. Last season the Preds were 12th in 5on5 scoring ... needs tweaks, not overhaul. They sucked 5on4 ... needs a lot of work.
Right, a top ten offense doesn't guarantee a cup as 9 other teams find out each year. But history shows the Stanley Cup winners have a top ten offense. Last one was the Devils (14 out of 28 I believe) and that was in the clutch and grab / trap era.

Quote:
As I said, the team could use a true top line winger and has a stockpile of 2nd/3rd line type guys. I see a need for a true QB on the first PP unit as well which makes me hesitant to move Ellis just yet.
Agreed 100%

I also think Boston provided a good blueprint for the Predators in balanced scoring.

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08-24-2011, 05:40 PM
  #46
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But how does this benefit WPG?

You always have to justify the other side since this could be put on the Trade Board.

Of course, there's the hype of Ellis being a protege star, but why would they take Wilson?
Wilson COULD bring the same offensive upside as Little. Additionally,IMO, considering potential since a prospect is involved:

Little > Wilson (currently)
Ellis>>>Stuart

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08-24-2011, 05:47 PM
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I also think Boston provided a good blueprint for the Predators in balanced scoring.
We've got balanced scoring figured out and have for a few seasons. It's 5on4 scoring that has been the Achilles heel of late. We've got the defensive piece in place, the ES piece isn't great but isn't bad, just one aspect to fix.

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08-24-2011, 06:02 PM
  #48
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I dont get why everyone is throwing Wilson around. Most of you are acting like he has gone down the *******. I think he could easily surpass Little this season. Little has been regressing while Wilson really has not even had a solid consistent top 6 opportunity. And he still put up decent numbers.

We wouldnt trade Wilson for Kessel, we probably would of had to of traded him if we wanted Carter. And that didnt happen, what makes people think we would trade him for Bryan Little?

Be patient with the damn kid

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08-24-2011, 06:13 PM
  #49
KevFist
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Little hasn't regressed actually. He had one not so good season where here was playing withj Todd "Charmin" White and Slowva Kozlov.

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08-24-2011, 06:21 PM
  #50
I Will Son
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BroFist View Post
Little hasn't regressed actually. He had one not so good season where here was playing withj Todd "Charmin" White and Slowva Kozlov.
Well regressed probably was not the right word of choice. He has regressed in goals by a fair margin but not points.

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