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08-24-2011, 07:56 PM
  #76
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Being backstopped by an AHL player didn't prevent the Flyers from making it to the Finals or from playing confidently.

edit: And again...Vokoun. His skill let FLA play aggressively if they wanted to, but the players on the team just weren't very good. W/L really doesn't tell the whole story. It doesn't come close.

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08-24-2011, 08:44 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
Being backstopped by an AHL player didn't prevent the Flyers from making it to the Finals or from playing confidently.

edit: And again...Vokoun. His skill let FLA play aggressively if they wanted to, but the players on the team just weren't very good. W/L really doesn't tell the whole story. It doesn't come close.
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If you had two identical teams (other than the goalie) W/L would be the all encompassing stat
there ya go...hope that clears it up.

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08-24-2011, 08:50 PM
  #78
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there ya go...hope that clears it up.
So, if two teams are identical except that one has a weakness in goal, the team with a bad goalie will lose.

I have no idea what you're trying to prove here. That having a bad goalie makes you lose games?

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08-24-2011, 09:02 PM
  #79
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
So, if two teams are identical except that one has a weakness in goal, the team with a bad goalie will lose.

I have no idea what you're trying to prove here. That having a bad goalie makes you lose games?
once you isolate the variable in question (goalie) you can see the the W/L is the only "all encompassing stat"

let me explain further:

if it was BOB V Bryz, lets say in a game, Bryz wins 2-1

in said game, team BOB musters only 15 shots, where team bryz shoots 33.
BOB sv% = .939
Bryz sv% = .933

in the games, BOBs rebounds are shoddy, forcing his team to play defensive and not take chances. They spend time in their zone recovering rebounds and icing the puck. Team Bryz can afford to play a more open style and be agressive. This leads them to pepper the other team with shots. The game goes on, Team Bryz wins

(this is an extreme example, but it displays my point...which is
W/L encompasses all of the variables of a goalies "skill"

SV% in this scenario does not display the goaltender's respective "skill". It is dependent on the opposing team actually taking a lot of shots...


Statistics are a tool we use to compare qualities. We also are tools, and can compare qualities with (under-rated) accuracy.

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08-24-2011, 09:07 PM
  #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tuckrr View Post
once you isolate the variable in question (goalie) you can see the the W/L is the only "all encompassing stat"

let me explain further:

if it was BOB V Bryz, lets say in a game, Bryz wins 2-1

in said game, team BOB musters only 15 shots, where team bryz shoots 33.
BOB sv% = .939
Bryz sv% = .933

in the games, BOBs rebounds are shoddy, forcing his team to play defensive and not take chances. They spend time in their zone recovering rebounds and icing the puck. Team Bryz can afford to play a more open style and be agressive. This leads them to pepper the other team with shots. The game goes on, Team Bryz wins

(this is an extreme example, but it displays my point...which is
W/L encompasses all of the variables of a goalies "skill"

SV% in this scenario does not display the goaltender's respective "skill". It is dependent on the opposing team actually taking a lot of shots...


Statistics are a tool we use to compare qualities. We also are tools, and can compare qualities with (under-rated) accuracy.
Ah.

So if one team plays like crap and gets dominated while being outshot 2:1, they lose regardless of who is in goal. Much like Vokoun in Florida...an example where W/L is not even close to being an indicator of the goalie's skill level.

Based on your comments about stats, I don't think you understand how they are used or how Jester uses them.

Edit: let's run with your example. Let's say Bryz's team completely blows in a game. They get 15 shots. However, Bryz is fantastic, stopping 49/50 shots. Team Bryz loses 1-0 despite Bryz putting on a stellar performance. In that case the goalie gets the L because his team sucked, and it is no indication of his skill or how he played. W/L does not absolutely indicate a goaltender's skill level or how he performed


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Old
08-25-2011, 02:39 PM
  #81
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Ah.

So if one team plays like crap and gets dominated while being outshot 2:1, they lose regardless of who is in goal. Much like Vokoun in Florida...an example where W/L is not even close to being an indicator of the goalie's skill level.

Based on your comments about stats, I don't think you understand how they are used or how Jester uses them.

Edit: let's run with your example. Let's say Bryz's team completely blows in a game. They get 15 shots. However, Bryz is fantastic, stopping 49/50 shots. Team Bryz loses 1-0 despite Bryz putting on a stellar performance. In that case the goalie gets the L because his team sucked, and it is no indication of his skill or how he played. W/L does not absolutely indicate a goaltender's skill level or how he performed

they are playing the same team, so none of this is relevant.

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08-25-2011, 03:22 PM
  #82
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Exactly. There is no statistic which encompasses trust; a purely emotional intangible.
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08-25-2011, 03:30 PM
  #83
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Quote:
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they are playing the same team, so none of this is relevant.
If they're playing the same team, then why aren't the teams performing identically?

If they're playing the same team, they'd both face the same amount of shots, of equivalent quality. Like I said, I'm just running with your example. I'm using the rules you set.

The fact that you have to set up a very specific set of circumstances to try and prove your point is telling.

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08-25-2011, 06:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
If they're playing the same team, then why aren't the teams performing identically?

If they're playing the same team, they'd both face the same amount of shots, of equivalent quality. Like I said, I'm just running with your example. I'm using the rules you set.

The fact that you have to set up a very specific set of circumstances to try and prove your point is telling.

that IS my point.

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08-25-2011, 06:46 PM
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that IS my point.
And it makes no sense in the slightest. Win Loss remains a terrible indicator of a goalie's skill.

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08-25-2011, 07:11 PM
  #86
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And it makes no sense in the slightest. Win Loss remains a terrible indicator of a goalie's skill.
if the only difference on two teams is the goalie, and you played 100,000 games.

the only statistic that will tell you who the better goalie is, is W/L.

SV% doesnt tell it,
GAA doesnt tell it,

this is because the ultimate goal of hockey is to win.

that is what i've been saying.

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08-25-2011, 07:47 PM
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This is a silly argument, W/L record is a terrible way to measure the performance of any 1 player. If a goalie can't influence goals for, he has no control over half of the outcome that determines a win or loss and it'd be silly to hold him accountable to a stat that relies so heavily on it.

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08-25-2011, 08:08 PM
  #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tuckrr View Post
if the only difference on two teams is the goalie, and you played 100,000 games.

the only statistic that will tell you who the better goalie is, is W/L.

SV% doesnt tell it,
GAA doesnt tell it,

this is because the ultimate goal of hockey is to win.

that is what i've been saying.
Are you aware that SVPCT and GAA would still tell you far, far more about the goalies than W/L? There's a reason that W/L isn't discussed seriously when evaluating goaltenders.

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08-25-2011, 09:35 PM
  #89
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Flyers fans really need to stop going on about how the coyotes were a bad team. It's just 100% false. Not only were they a good team, they played very good defense

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08-25-2011, 09:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tuckrr View Post
the only statistic that will tell you who the better goalie is, is W/L.

SV% doesnt tell it,
GAA doesnt tell it,

this is because the ultimate goal of hockey is to win.

that is what i've been saying.
Dude, if the teams are identical they would have the same number of shots with differing goal totals... Which would directly correlate with GAA and SV%

This argument is horrible

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08-26-2011, 08:35 AM
  #91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tuckrr View Post
if the only difference on two teams is the goalie, and you played 100,000 games.

the only statistic that will tell you who the better goalie is, is W/L.

SV% doesnt tell it,
GAA doesnt tell it,

this is because the ultimate goal of hockey is to win.

that is what i've been saying.
You realize there are a host of other stats you could look at, right?

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08-26-2011, 08:36 AM
  #92
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Originally Posted by BringBackStevens View Post
Flyers fans really need to stop going on about how the coyotes were a bad team. It's just 100% false. Not only were they a good team, they played very good defense
Yeah, they lacked a bit of punch, but they are a very well coached group down there.

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08-26-2011, 11:32 AM
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
Are you aware that SVPCT and GAA would still tell you far, far more about the goalies than W/L? There's a reason that W/L isn't discussed seriously when evaluating goaltenders.
Im talking about the only situation on which there COULD be an all encompassing stat (which in real life there isn't)

W/L in the real world doesn't isolate the goalie.

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08-26-2011, 11:35 AM
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Dude, if the teams are identical they would have the same number of shots with differing goal totals... Which would directly correlate with GAA and SV%

This argument is horrible
But the teams aren't identical, they have different goalies.

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08-26-2011, 11:52 AM
  #95
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But the teams aren't identical, they have different goalies.
Your argument is that the goaltender is influencing the rest of the team... which, in your case study, would be the same exact group of individuals.

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08-26-2011, 01:08 PM
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Your argument is that the goaltender is influencing the rest of the team... which, in your case study, would be the same exact group of individuals.
true, but its not the same team.

he said they'd have the same shots/play style...thats not the same thing as 'being the same exact group of individuals.'

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08-26-2011, 01:09 PM
  #97
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The goalie isn't out there taking shots, so I don't see why the shot totals would be so different...considering they're supposed to be facing the same individuals.

Your scenario is incredibly flawed; it doesn't prove anything, and relies heavily on "it works because I say it does."

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08-26-2011, 01:30 PM
  #98
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Have you guys noticed how often Vokoun has been injured?

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/teams/players/bio/?id=296


Compared to Bryzgalov:

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/teams/players/bio/?id=2252


Bryz has had some bumps and bruises here and there but it appears that Vokoun gets injured more often. Combine that with Vokoun's age and maybe that's a reason we went for Bryz.

Of course you could say that since Vokoun is older that he has played more games and therefore has more of a chance of getting injured. But regardless of that fact, Bryz is definitely the fresher goalie.

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08-26-2011, 02:00 PM
  #99
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
The goalie isn't out there taking shots, so I don't see why the shot totals would be so different...considering they're supposed to be facing the same individuals.

Your scenario is incredibly flawed; it doesn't prove anything, and relies heavily on "it works because I say it does."
its just the only scenario in which a stat encompasses everything to compare to goaltenders.

my point was no real statistic encompasses everything about a goalie, it only indicates things.

(this extreme is the only situation in which you could actually say this goalie is "better" with 100% confidence...albeit games played would have to equal infinity)

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08-26-2011, 02:07 PM
  #100
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its just the only scenario in which a stat encompasses everything to compare to goaltenders.

my point was no real statistic encompasses everything about a goalie, it only indicates things.

(this extreme is the only situation in which you could actually say this goalie is "better" with 100% confidence...albeit games played would have to equal infinity)
No one stat encompasses everything about much of anything. SVPCT tells you what percentage of the pucks that were directed at a goalie went past him (a good quantifier of the skill of a goalie with a large enough sample)... doesn't tell you how many went in. Similarly, a low GAA doesn't mean a goalie played particularly great, just that he didn't allow a lot of goals.

There are a ton of advanced stats out there with the explicit purpose of getting at a variety of things you might want to analyze.

Your argument is that the intangible of "trust" (in the goalie) manifests in better team play. As I noted, if that actually is true, then you're going to see signs of actual improved team play. This isn't a sport based on aesthetics, it's based on hard quantifiable numbers: who scores more goals? If trust doesn't end up impacting the answer to that question, then trust, as an intangible, is meaningless.

Hypothetically, if you want to investigate whether a team is playing with more "trust" in their goalie... maybe you see an increase in SOGA and SOGF. Why? Because if they have more "trust" perhaps they are a bit looser in both directions, which leads to more offensive creation and allowing a few more chances against -- which they trust their goalie to stop.

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