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HFS Top Prospect Polls: 2011 edition - #1

View Poll Results: Who is the Sharks' #1 prospect?
J.P. Anderson (G - Mississauga/OHL) 1 1.72%
Justin Braun (D - Worcester/AHL) 12 20.69%
Andrew Desjardins (C - Worcester/AHL) 1 1.72%
Taylor Doherty (D - Kingston/OHL) 18 31.03%
Thomas Greiss (G - Worcester/AHL) 0 0%
Freddie Hamilton (C/W - Niagra/OHL) 2 3.45%
Matt Nieto (LW - Boston Univ./NCAA) 1 1.72%
Nick Petrecki (D - Worcester/AHL) 1 1.72%
Harri Sateri (G - Worcester/AHL) 7 12.07%
Michael Sgarbossa (C - Sudbury/OHL) 0 0%
Alex Stalock (G - Worcester/AHL) 12 20.69%
Marek Viedensky (C - Saskatoon/WHL) 3 5.17%
Tommy Wingels (C/W - Worcester/AHL) 0 0%
William Wrenn (D - Portland/WHL) 0 0%
Other (please specify) 0 0%
Voters: 58. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
08-27-2011, 02:55 PM
  #1
The Nemesis
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HFS Top Prospect Polls: 2011 edition - #1

A little later than I planned, but we're back for another year of prospect polls to see what the board consensus is for the order of the SJ prospect pool. In 09 we went the full 20 spots, and then last year we made it to about 13 of a planned 15 before voting petered out and people who did vote started admitting that they were more or less picking based on the name they recognized or randomness. So it remains to be seen how far we will take this year's rankings. The initial plan is to evaluate voting after 10 spots and see if we can go another 5, then do the same thing at #15.

14 players have been named to the initial group for the poll, plus an "other" option to encompass anyone who is listed on the pending poll options (you'll see it below)

Note that the rules for the polls remain pretty much the same as in previous years (I increased the GP threshold slightly)

Poll rules:
Eligibility: Prospects are eligible for the polls if they are 25 years of age or younger, have played less than 30 NHL games in their careers to this point, and are not expected to be regular parts of the NHL roster this year. Yes, this means that Thomas Greiss is back on the list after being off last year when he was projected as the backup goaltender prior to the Niemi signing.

1) each poll will have 14 player options, plus an "other" vote. If you vote for "other" you must indicate in a post who you are intending to put forth as your selection for it (and it must be a player found on the future poll eligibility list below).

2) When you vote, you must also post and indicate who you wish to have added to the next poll. The player with the most nominations will be added to the next ranking spot's poll options.

3) Polls will be open for 48 hours. (I've found that during the summer, voting tends to peter out after a couple days, and 90% of the time the voters who miss out in two-day windows aren't usually enough to impact the result)

4) If after 30 votes have been cast, any prospect holds a 20 vote or greater lead on the next closest competitor, the poll will be closed early and the current front-runner will be declared the winner.

5) In the event a poll closes with a tie, a 24 hour tiebreak poll will be opened with only the tied players available as an option.

Eligible for addition to future polls and/or the "other" vote option (regardless of how you vote in the poll, pick one to add to the next poll)
Konrad Abeltshauser
Sena Acolatse
Colin Blackwell
Mike Connolly
Chris Crane
Drew Daniels
Justin Daniels
Dylan DeMelo
Cody Ferriero
Max Gaede
Curt Gogol
Thomas Heemskerk
Matt Irwin
Sean Kuraly
James Livingston
Tony Lucia
Cam MacIntyre
Isaac MacLeod
James Marcou
Brandon Mashinter
Lee Moffie
Matt Pelech (he should've been here from the start, but I doubt there would've been much call to get him on the poll right away. He's here now though)
Brodie Reid
Justin Sefton
Tyson Sexsmith
Daniil Sobchenko


Poll #13, the last one I could find from last year and containing all the final data, can be found here:
http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=807522

For kicks, the '09 recap thread can be found here: http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=684764

Note the following removals from the prospect pool between last year and this year:

Not signed/retained (incl. trades)
Dominik Bielke
Charlie Coyle
Patrick Davis
Kevin Henderson
Carter Hutton
Joe Loprieno
Nick Schaus
Michael Swift
Phil Varone
Patrick White

Passed GP/Age threshold
Benn Ferriero
John McCarthy
Jamie McGinn
Frazer McLaren
James Sheppard

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Old
08-27-2011, 03:04 PM
  #2
Kitten Mittons
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Yay! Voted Stalock.

ADD MOTHER****ING IRWIN!!!!!!!!

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08-27-2011, 03:13 PM
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Doherty

add Abeltshauser

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08-27-2011, 03:18 PM
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Voted Doherty

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08-27-2011, 03:22 PM
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I'm curious what you mean by top prospect. Like Braun will probably make an impact the soonest, but I voted Doherty because he's gonna be a ****ing beast.

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08-27-2011, 03:24 PM
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magic school bus
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Picked Doherty // add Mashinter.

Quote:
Originally Posted by marbanasin View Post
I'm curious what you mean by top prospect. Like Braun will probably make an impact the soonest, but I voted Doherty because he's gonna be a ****ing beast.
this is funny because Kitten Mittons asked this same question last year.

vote for who you think is the best prospect (or who you think will be the best player) regardless of their time of arrival in the NHL.

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08-27-2011, 03:26 PM
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Kitten Mittons
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Heh, I didn't see Braun on the list. D'oh.

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08-27-2011, 03:28 PM
  #8
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Add: Brandon Mashinter

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Old
08-27-2011, 04:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marbanasin View Post
I'm curious what you mean by top prospect. Like Braun will probably make an impact the soonest, but I voted Doherty because he's gonna be a ****ing beast.
Top Prospect is largely based on a combo of ultimate pro potential ceiling balanced against likelihood of making it to that ceiling/having an impact in the NHL. Obviously there's always a tipping point in the rankings where longshot skill pros are outranked by near-guaranteed grinders, but that's about it. Time frame isn't really relevant at all.

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08-27-2011, 04:23 PM
  #10
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Voted Sateri. Add Abeltshauser.

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Old
08-27-2011, 04:29 PM
  #11
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Voted Doherty, add Acolatse.

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Old
08-27-2011, 04:42 PM
  #12
Kitten Mittons
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2009:

#1 - Petrecki wins (48.28%)
#2 - Couture wins (70.00%)
#3 - McGinn wins (66.67%)
#4 - Greiss wins (66.67%)
#5 - Joslin wins (43.64%)
#6 - Stalock wins (39.58%)
#7 - Moore wins (30.43%)
#8 - Sexsmith wins (27.59%)
#9 - Sateri wins (23.08%)
#10 - Wrenn wins (31.25%)
#11 - Zackrisson wins (23.53%)
#12 - Karlsson wins (28.57%)
#13 - Zalewski wins (21.88%)
#14 - McLaren wins (26.09%)
#15 - Jason Demers wins (37.50%)
#16 - Justin Daniels wins (50.00%)
#17 - Doherty wins (35.29%)
#18 - Ferriero wins (23.81%)
#19 - White wins (45.18%)

2010:

10 RankPlayerVote%09 RankChange
1Alex Stalock54.84%#6+5
2Nick Petrecki33.33%#1-1
3Taylor Doherty55.77%#17+14
4Harri Säteri35.42%#9+5
5Benn Ferriero40.38%#18+13
6Charlie Coyle54.90%NEWNEW
7Justin Braun27.66%NRNR
8Tommy Wingels31.11%NRNR
9Marek Viedensky32.50%NRNR
10Cam MacIntyre44.12%NEWNEW
11Brandon Mashinter59.46%NRNR
12William Wrenn44.00%#10-2
13Nick Shaus28.95%NRNR



Doherty rises up every year, it seems. I'm not a fan yet. We'll see what he does in Worcester.

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08-27-2011, 04:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
Top Prospect is largely based on a combo of ultimate pro potential ceiling balanced against likelihood of making it to that ceiling/having an impact in the NHL. Obviously there's always a tipping point in the rankings where longshot skill pros are outranked by near-guaranteed grinders, but that's about it. Time frame isn't really relevant at all.
Essentially the HF number/letter thing. Number for skill, letter for chance of demonstrating it in the show. The following are the descriptions behind the numbers and letters.

Going over the letters:
A - will assuredly achieve potential (eg Crosby=10A)
F - almost no chance of achieving potential (F is almost never given with D being the lowest)

Numbers:
10 - Generational talent (eg Crosby)
9 - Perpetual All-Star (eg JT)
8 - Sometimes All-Star (eg Marleau)
7 - Tweener (4/5 dman, sometimes top 6 forward, definitely top 9)
6 - Grinder (6/7 dman, 4th liner/reserve forward)

I had a problem figuring who should top out. I had about 5 guys at 7D in my rankings, the rest lower.

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08-27-2011, 04:58 PM
  #14
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i don't feel comfortable voting for Stalock because of his injury.
Petrecki doesnt sound like a top prospect - from what i've heard about him.

Doherty has yet to disappoint me, so he gets my vote.

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08-27-2011, 05:24 PM
  #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitten Mittons View Post
2009:

#1 - Petrecki wins (48.28%)
#2 - Couture wins (70.00%)
#3 - McGinn wins (66.67%)
#4 - Greiss wins (66.67%)
#5 - Joslin wins (43.64%)
#6 - Stalock wins (39.58%)
#7 - Moore wins (30.43%)
#8 - Sexsmith wins (27.59%)
#9 - Sateri wins (23.08%)
#10 - Wrenn wins (31.25%)
#11 - Zackrisson wins (23.53%)
#12 - Karlsson wins (28.57%)
#13 - Zalewski wins (21.88%)
#14 - McLaren wins (26.09%)
#15 - Jason Demers wins (37.50%)
#16 - Justin Daniels wins (50.00%)
#17 - Doherty wins (35.29%)
#18 - Ferriero wins (23.81%)
#19 - White wins (45.18%)

2010:

10 RankPlayerVote%09 RankChange
1Alex Stalock54.84%#6+5
2Nick Petrecki33.33%#1-1
3Taylor Doherty55.77%#17+14
4Harri Säteri35.42%#9+5
5Benn Ferriero40.38%#18+13
6Charlie Coyle54.90%NEWNEW
7Justin Braun27.66%NRNR
8Tommy Wingels31.11%NRNR
9Marek Viedensky32.50%NRNR
10Cam MacIntyre44.12%NEWNEW
11Brandon Mashinter59.46%NRNR
12William Wrenn44.00%#10-2
13Nick Shaus28.95%NRNR



Doherty rises up every year, it seems. I'm not a fan yet. We'll see what he does in Worcester.
Interesting fact: While Doherty is on both lists, Matt Irwin is on neither. Guess we'll see what he does with the Thunder this year

You hate on my mancrush, ill hate on your mancrush

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08-27-2011, 05:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Essentially the HF number/letter thing. Number for skill, letter for chance of demonstrating it in the show. The following are the descriptions behind the numbers and letters.

Going over the letters:
A - will assuredly achieve potential (eg Crosby=10A)
F - almost no chance of achieving potential (F is almost never given with D being the lowest)

Numbers:
10 - Generational talent (eg Crosby)
9 - Perpetual -aAll Star (eg JT)
8 - Sometimes All-Star (eg Marleau)
7 - Tweener (4/5 dman, sometimes top 6 forward, definitely top 9)
6 - Grinder (6/7 dman, 4th liner/reserve forward)

I had a problem figuring who should top out. I had about 5 guys at 7D in my rankings, the rest lower.
in HF a 7 is not a tweener -- it is a "Second line forward / No. 3-4 defenseman / journeyman No. 1 goaltender"

in HF 6 is " - Third line forward / No. 5-6 defenseman / Backup Goaltender

in HF 5 is " Fourth line forward / No. 7 defenseman / depth goaltender"

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08-27-2011, 05:42 PM
  #17
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Doherty

add -- Abeltshauser

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08-27-2011, 06:05 PM
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I dont understand why we do this now. Every year at training camp someone comes out of nowhere to boost their ranking and someone disappoints. We should do this after camp is over.

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08-27-2011, 06:41 PM
  #19
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I don't really consider Braun a "prospect" anymore.

Took Doherty. He's pretty unlikely to ever make the NHL but he has easily the highest ceiling out of all our prospects.

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08-27-2011, 06:57 PM
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Matt Irwin is a 10A in my eyes.

I think Braun is 7B, Doherty I'd give 8D/7C, Stalock 8C. Those are my top 3 Sharks prospects at the time.

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08-27-2011, 06:58 PM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SJSharks2010 View Post
I don't really consider Braun a "prospect" anymore.

Took Doherty. He's pretty unlikely to ever make the NHL but he has easily the highest ceiling out of all our prospects.
This one statement shows why polls like this are silly.

Someone has written off a 20 year old second round draft choice with exactly three pro games under his belt....and voted for him anyway.

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08-27-2011, 08:14 PM
  #22
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Voted Doherty

Add MacIntyre

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Old
08-27-2011, 08:24 PM
  #23
SJSharks2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 210 View Post
This one statement shows why polls like this are silly.

Someone has written off a 20 year old second round draft choice with exactly three pro games under his belt....and voted for him anyway.
When did I write him off? I said he's unlikely to make the NHL but has a high ceiling, don't put words in my mouth.

He's a boom or bust prospect.

He's having problems defensively, but if he puts it all together, uses his size well and holds onto his offensive game he could possibly be a first pairing defeceman. But on the other hand as of right now he's very far from NHL ready.

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08-27-2011, 08:27 PM
  #24
magic school bus
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitten Mittons View Post
Matt Irwin is a 10A in my eyes.

I think Braun is 7B, Doherty I'd give 8D/7C, Stalock 8C. Those are my top 3 Sharks prospects at the time.
by my count, the highest rated prospects we have are 7.0C (Braun, Stalock). Doherty could be a 7.5C or just a 7.0C.

in comparison, Chicago has at least 10 players with a 7.0C or higher. Wow. (Edit: it's closer to 15)


Last edited by magic school bus: 08-27-2011 at 08:39 PM.
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08-27-2011, 08:28 PM
  #25
210
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SJSharks2010 View Post
When did I write him off? I said he's unlkiely to make the NHL but has a high ceiling, don't put words in my mouth.

He's having problems defensively, but if he puts it all together, uses his size well and holds onto his offensive game he could possibly be a first pairing defeceman. But on the other hand as of right now he's very far from NHL ready.
"Unlikely to make the NHL" is writing someone off.

And how exactly can a player be "unlikely to make the NHL" but still have "a high ceiling"?

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